# Handicapping the 2014 midterms **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 5, 2014, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960 "2014-01-05T19:29:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/101 "2014-05-02T13:37:03Z")
> [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > Not that I like Fox, and I definitely would like the Pubs to lose badly this fall, but the easy retort is that the labor force participation rate dropped 0.4% due to 800,000 people who stopped looking for jobs. 800,000 stopped looking vs. 250,00 that got jobs is bad employment math. [cite](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-labor-force-participation-rate-falls-sharply-in-april-2014-05-02) The cite doesn’t say that 800K people “stopped looking” – it says “Our analysis of the household survey suggests the labor force decline was mostly due to fewer people entering the labor force than usual, rather than more people exiting the labor force.” ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/102 "2014-05-02T13:46:03Z")
Just curious, how many people retire in a given month? I assume that’s lumped into those leaving the work force. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/103 "2014-05-02T14:02:37Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The cite doesn’t say that 800K people “stopped looking” – it says “Our analysis of the household survey suggests the labor force decline was mostly due to fewer people entering the labor force than usual, rather than more people exiting the labor force.” po-ta-to, po-tah-to. There are fewer Americans looking to work than there used to be. That’s bad no matter how you slice it. You could even spin it as “the economy is so bad young people aren’t even starting to look for jobs”. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2014, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/104 "2014-05-02T16:28:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That will be the lesson of 2014. Many people had something taken away from them, and they’ll be very motivated voters. Little bit fuzzy on that word “many”. Perhaps you could render that into some sort of numerical value? Surely Fox News or Americans for Prosperity has some figures on that you can offer? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2014, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/105 "2014-05-03T00:54:03Z")
Surely I’d prefer to just use the election as a proxy for that, since unlike surveys and government figures, election results are definitive and have consequences. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2014, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/106 "2014-05-03T16:54:31Z")
Well, of course, given your spotless record of prescience and shrewd analysis, we can certainly understand. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2014, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/107 "2014-05-03T18:44:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Surely I’d prefer to just use the election as a proxy for that, since unlike surveys and government figures, election results are definitive and have consequences. Actually, I think you mean the election of 2010 was definitive and had consequences. 2008 and 2012, not so much. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2014, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/108 "2014-05-03T20:28:07Z")
Well there you have it, folks. The winner of the election will be whoever wins the election. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2014, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/109 "2014-05-04T04:02:13Z")
And that will be the Republicans, even if they don’t take the Senate. They will win a majority of the votes in 2014. Since Democrats here claim they actually won the House in 2012(without even winning a majority), I can make that claim too. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2014, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/110 "2014-05-04T17:25:38Z")
Bless your heart, of course you can, you make any claims you like! The entertainment value alone is worth the price of admission! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2014, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/111 "2014-05-04T17:58:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And that will be the Republicans, even if they don’t take the Senate. They will win a majority of the votes in 2014. Since Democrats here claim they actually won the House in 2012(without even winning a majority), I can make that claim too. Before we take this any further, please pin down here how you would define a Republican defeat. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2014, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/112 "2014-05-04T23:02:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It just happens that the people we appeal to vote regularly. Is this why they [vote for Republicans?](http://huff.to/1kwjYef%22) > [@](#): > > The House Ways and Means Committee voted this week to add $310 billion to the U.S. deficit by making permanent six tax credits for businesses. The measures are completely unpaid for – they would grow the deficit by $310 billion. And next week House Republicans plan to begin to bring these bills to the floor for a vote. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/113 "2014-05-05T00:17:21Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Before we take this any further, please pin down here how you would define a Republican defeat. A defeat is where you lose seats. A win is where you gain seats. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/114 "2014-05-05T01:06:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A defeat is where you lose seats. A win is where you gain seats. So are aggregate vote-totals irrespective of seats also relevant, or not? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/115 "2014-05-05T02:44:39Z")
That is also relevant. As are the governors’ races. The GOP now controls a big majority of governors’ mansions and quite a few state legislatures too. Maintaining control of those states is crucial for continuing the fight against ACA. Midterm elections tend to have a lot more going on than Presidential races due to the majority of governor elections being in the midterms. So there’s plenty of ways for either side to win. If the Republicans capture the Senate but lose several governors, I’d consider that a disappointment. I’d actually sooner see all the GOP governors survive than win the Senate, if I had to choose. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/116 "2014-05-05T11:22:51Z")
If Democrats hope that the President will somehow be able to drive turnout even though he’s not on the ballot, things are actually worse on that front than they were in 2010: > **[Poll: For the midterms, a tilt to the GOP](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/05/usa-today-pew-poll-midterm-landscape-tilts-to-gop/8520429/)** > > Other findings: By 2-1, Americans are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Democrats are significantly less motivated by their support for Obama, a factor that could complicate the critical effort to turn out voters. In 2010, 47% cast a vote to show their support for him; that’s dropped to 31%. Pelosi and other Democratic leaders say the party will tap the sort of sophisticated on-the-ground efforts that Obama pioneered to boost turnout. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/117 "2014-05-05T11:43:41Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Well there you have it, folks. The winner of the election will be whoever wins the election. Is anyone else thinking that John Madden should get a job as a pundit? Or is it just me? ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/118 "2014-05-05T14:55:07Z")
Yup, that USA Today/Pew Research poll is far from a good poll. I’m not going to try to spin it as a positive, but suffice it to say that it shows just how badly the Dems need to bring their A-game to this election. ---
**Author:** ![WreckingCrew](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wreckingcrew/32/4080_2.png) [@WreckingCrew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WreckingCrew)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/119 "2014-05-05T15:14:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’d actually sooner see all the GOP governors survive than win the Senate, if I had to choose. Interesting - and I am not disagreeing with you, but I have never really put much value in Governors. But that is perhaps the two states I am most familiar with, RI and MA, have such vast Dem majorities in their state assemblies that the Governor is often an afterthought no matter what party they are from. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2014, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/120 "2014-05-05T17:15:41Z")
BTW, [here’s the elections calendar](http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm). The first primaries are tomorrow – Indiana, NC, and Ohio. The last will be September 13 (USVI). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960.md?page=7)