# Handicapping the 2014 midterms **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 5, 2014, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960 "2014-01-05T19:29:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/161 "2014-05-08T23:49:34Z")
Well, if we are not to kid ourselves and speak in stark candor, I think these actions are politically motivated. Frankly, in the cold light of reality, I don’t see how any other conclusion is possible. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2014, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/162 "2014-05-08T23:50:49Z")
That’s the nature of races where one side has mostly incumbents, the other side mostly challengers. The attacks on the Democrats are biting, as witnessed by their howling about the Koch Brothers. The Republicans haven’t had a thing to say about the Democratic attacks, which either means they are in Dukakis mode, or just don’t see it as a threat. Well, we are kind of mad at Harry Reid, but that’s because Reid is a troll and enjoys being a troll. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2014, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/163 "2014-05-09T05:11:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The attacks on the Democrats are biting, as witnessed by their howling about the Koch Brothers. :rolleyes: No, actually, that **witnesses** something entirely different and entirely better. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2014, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/164 "2014-05-11T04:11:29Z")
Nunn leads all contenders in Georgia by a wide margin except for Perdue: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) On the bright side(for Republicans), NH is definitely within reach. Shaheen is vulnerable and Brown can beat her. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2014, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/165 "2014-05-14T17:05:34Z")
Hm. [Dems are polling surprisingly well in some of the red states.](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/13/1299198/-The-South-is-waking-up-Senate-Democrats-surprisingly-leading-in-Red-States?#) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2014, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/166 "2014-05-14T17:15:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > On the bright side(for Republicans), NH is definitely within reach. Shaheen is vulnerable and Brown can beat her. #Bqhatevwr.😉 Not by [trailing](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_brown_vs_shaheen-3894.html), he can’t. And not by ritually demanding the full repeal of Obamacare, which is his entire platform. And certainly not by [admitting](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/24/this-is-scott-brown-s-granite-state-of-whatever.html) this: > [@](#): > > “Do I have the best credentials? Probably not. 'Cause, you know, whatever. But I do have strong ties to this state.” ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2014, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/167 "2014-05-14T19:05:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Nunn leads all contenders in Georgia by a wide margin except for Perdue: You’ll be able to remove that exception soon, as Georgians realize [he supports tax increases.](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/14/1299324/-In-stunning-outburst-of-sanity-leading-GOP-Senate-hopeful-speaks-up-in-favor-of-tax-hikes?detail=hide) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/168 "2014-05-15T07:03:34Z")
The democrats are polling “surprisingly” well in that their incumbents are all endangered. Unlike 2010, where a couple of them were trailing big. However, I wouldn’t take much comfort in that. The polls aren’t currently accounting for Democrats’ midterm turnout problems. Take the Pryor/Cotton polls for instance: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ar/arkansas\_senate\_cotton\_vs\_pryor-4049.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_cotton_vs_pryor-4049.html) Pryor does much better in registered voter polls than in likely voter polls. It’s too early for most pollsters to break out their likely voter models, but once they do, these southern Dems that are hanging in there at 45% or so are going to be dropping to 40%. And it’s not just Pryor. The one Georgia senate poll using a likely voter model has Perdue leading: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ga/georgia\_senate\_perdue\_vs\_nunn-4040.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ga/georgia_senate_perdue_vs_nunn-4040.html) Tillis leads or ties in most likely voter polls, Hagan leads in only one. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north\_carolina\_senate\_tillis\_vs\_hagan-3497.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html) ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/169 "2014-05-15T10:42:43Z")
Polls are wrong, gotcha. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/170 "2014-05-15T16:08:39Z")
The polls are right. If they measure registered voters they show one thing, if they measure likely voters they show another. All I’m saying is that once all the pollsters switch to likely voter models, the numbers are going to change. Just sparing you from a rude shock when the numbers suddenly start to deteriorate. Placing your hopes in incumbents who are virtually tied with lesser known challengers as early as May has historically led to a lot of tears. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/171 "2014-05-15T16:35:17Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > All I’m saying is that once all the pollsters switch to likely voter models, the numbers are going to change. Not that I’m particularly optimistic about the Democrats’ chances to hold the Senate (I think it’s about 50/50, and maybe even worse, at this point), but didn’t you say something very similar for the 2012 election? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/172 "2014-05-15T16:39:20Z")
No, then I just said that the turnout models most of the pollsters were using was wrong. Right now, most pollsters aren’t using turnout models because it’s too early. But I think anyone who has been paying attention would admit that a statistical tie among registered voters just isn’t good enough for Democrats in a midterm election. And the results of likely voter poll that have been taken thus far do bear that out. The GOP candidate leads in the vast majority of likely voter polls. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/173 "2014-05-15T16:49:06Z")
I’ll just add that in 2012, registered voter polls were closer to the election results than the likely voter polls. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/174 "2014-05-15T16:50:03Z")
BTW, the RCP average currently shows the Republicans with more seats than the Democrats: 46-45, with 9 tossups. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014\_elections\_senate\_map.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html) The GOP doesn’t even have to run the table, or even come all that close, to win the Senate. They can even give up Mitch McConnell, which makes me happy, because I’d love to see him go away. The Democrats have only SIX safe seats, which has got to be some kind of record of suck. The GOP, despite defending less seats, have nine safe seats. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/175 "2014-05-15T16:52:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’ll just add that in 2012, registered voter polls were closer to the election results than the likely voter polls. Obama has a tendency to accomplish that when he’s on the ticket. Not so much when he’s not. Although Democrats always come closer in turnout ratios to Republicans in general elections. But Obama got certain voters to the polls(youth and minorities) who normally don’t vote even in general elections. And they haven’t come out for Democrats when Obama isn’t up for election. Anyway, shifting to the House, the Democrats are defending 10 more seats that are competitive than the Republicans. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/2014\_elections\_house\_map.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/2014_elections_house_map.html) And in the governors’ races, the RCP model actually has Republicans gaining one, which surprises me and if you’re familiar with the points I made earlier, is very important to me. Having 30 GOP controlled governors’ mansions would be awesome. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/176 "2014-05-15T17:07:37Z")
> [@](#): > > The Democrats have only SIX safe seats, which has got to be some kind of record of suck. The GOP, despite defending less seats, have nine safe seats. Both of which are due to the fact that the Democrats performed extremely well six years ago. Most remaining Republican seats are safe, because if they weren’t, they’d have already lost them. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/177 "2014-05-15T17:13:42Z")
That’s a nice excuse, but not all the Democratic seats that are threatened are in red or purple states. They have eight seats in states Obama won that are not safe. Three of those states that Obama won feature Senate races that are tossups. Four if you count NC, which Obama won in 2008. If the Democrats weren’t having a bad year, the Democrats wouldnt be having to spend money to protect Udall, Merkley, and Franken. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/178 "2014-05-15T17:37:31Z")
> **[Al Franken, Mark Dayton lead GOP challengers, poll says - Public Policy Polling](https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/news/al-franken-mark-dayton-lead-gop-challengers-poll-says/)** > > Al Franken, Mark Dayton lead GOP challengers, poll says St. Paul Pioneer Press > [@](#): > > …Franken’s approval rating among registered voters in Minnesota is at 51/43; almost identical to his 51/42 approval rating from our last polls in May. The senator consistently leads would-be opponents Jim Abeler 50-39, Chris Dahlberg 49-39, Mike McFadden 49-38, Julianne Ortman 49-37 and Monti Moreno 49-36… Sorry, you were saying? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2014, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/179 "2014-05-15T19:25:33Z")
I didn’t say anything other than that Democrats would have to spend money defending the seat because it’s not safe. RCP lists it as Likely Dem, not Safe Dem. Sabato concurs: [http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/](http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/) Cook concurs: [http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings](http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2014, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960/180 "2014-05-17T07:31:51Z")
In Arkansas, Tom Cotton’s fall in the polls seems to actually be because he did something good, not because he did something crazy: > **[The Arkansas Race Is Not Over Yet](https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/57538/)** > > In a year full of tough challenges for the Democrats, Tom Cotton may have opened up an opportunity. Cotton voted against the farm bill, something no other farm state Republican had the integrity to do. Dozens of liberal Democrats also voted against the bill. It would be a shame if Cotton lost for that reason. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-2014-midterms/677960.md?page=10)