# Handicapping the 3/11/14 special election for Fla. 13th HoR District **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 5, 2014, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958 "2014-03-05T19:09:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2014, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/21 "2014-03-11T17:29:33Z")
Let us do our thing and fail, then you can laugh at us. We still believe that ACA is THE issue of this election and likely the next one, and that the issue favors us. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2014, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/22 "2014-03-11T17:33:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Let us do our thing and fail, then you can laugh at us. That’s already happened. 😉 > [@](#): > > We still believe that ACA is THE issue of this election and likely the next one, and that the issue favors us. Pity those of us tragically constrained to live in the reality-based community. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2014, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/23 "2014-03-11T17:36:16Z")
Then we lose and you’re happy. Sleep well, the Senate is safe. Never mind those skewed polls. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2014, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/24 "2014-03-11T17:37:47Z")
\*That \*again? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/25 "2014-03-12T00:08:42Z")
So Jolly won by around 2%. For the life of me, I haven’t been able to figure out why the press has been spinning this election as some kind of harbinger of things to come in November. From how I see it, it’s an off-season special election in a hugely gerrymandered R district. The fact that the Dem came so close to clinching it is actually pretty impressive; it does show, however, that the Dem off-year voter turnout machine could still use a little work. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/26 "2014-03-12T09:40:19Z")
She was a candidate who won statewide office, ran for governor, and outraised Jolly. In a district Obama won in 2012. I agree it’s not a harbinger, but it was a race Democrats should have won. If they don’t win Obama districts where they outraise their opponents in 2014, they’ll lose seats in the House. And yes, the turnout machine doesn’t work when Obama isn’t on top of the ticket. That’s the effect of a celebrity candidate. There are a lot of his voters who will never vote again until someone else inspires them. Since most Democratic Presidential candidates aren’t inspiring, that means the “coalition of the ascendant” will be the “coalition of the couch potatoes” come 2016. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/27 "2014-03-12T15:50:07Z")
[Charles F. Pierce writes in _Esquire:_](http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/florida-special-election-031214?src=spr_TWITTER&spr_id=1456_48100643) > [@](#): > > So, it’s a loss, and not a good one, for the Democrats going into the 2014 midterms, but it still doesn’t look like much of a bellwether. The Republicans are crowing about how the result was a referendum on the Affordable Care Act, but Sink didn’t exactly rise to its defense. In a low turnout election – Nice job there again, Democrats. – with Jolly explaining that the ACA will end democracy as we know it and kill us all, and Sink mumbling that she would “keep what was right and fix what was wrong,” the stronger argument, no matter how shot through with nonsense it is, will generally prevail. > > If you want to take any lesson from the election in Florida, take this one. Defend the law. Defend it on the basis of the fact that millions of people no longer face economic ruin because a member of their family might get sick. Defend the law on the basis of economic populism; marry your support for the law to an increase in the minimum wage, Elizabeth Warren’s student-loan reform, and expanded unemployment benefits. (Tie it to this excellent idea that the president announced today.) Explain, in detail, why expanding Social Security makes sense in a stalled economy. Defend the law on the basis of the fact that the Republicans have absolutely nothing to offer on the issue; the Coburn plan is a “plan” for the sake of having a “plan.” It has no chance of ever becoming law. > > “Fix what’s wrong,” conceded too damn much. There weren’t enough “independents” voting in that election to make a difference. Run as Democrats. They’re going to make you do it anyway. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/28 "2014-03-12T16:15:38Z")
[John Nichols in _The Nation:_](http://www.thenation.com/blog/178806/outside-money-not-obamacare-gave-gop-its-florida-win) Jolly won because he got a lot more out-of-state funding. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/29 "2014-03-12T16:17:34Z")
By Nichols’ own math, Jolly was still outspent even if you count outside funding. Nichols seems to be claiming "No fair! Sink didn’t have the proper advantages she was entitled to Actually, my bad, that made the spending just about even, except that Sink controlled more of her money than Jolly did, and Jolly was none too happy with at least one of the commercials run on his behalf. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/30 "2014-03-12T16:25:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > By Nichols’ own math, Jolly was still outspent even if you count outside funding. Nichols seems to be claiming "No fair! Sink didn’t have the proper advantages she was entitled to No, that’s not what he’s saying. > [@](#): > > Jolly’s campaign raised and spent $1.3 million—barely half the total for Sink, whose background in the financial sector and in politics, as a former gubenatorial candidate, gave her some early advantages. As the campaign played out in February and early March, the polls suggested that Sink might secure an upset. Sink had the money advantage, and in a traditional campaign might well have maintained it. But we are now in a new political era when outside groups – with very nearly unlimited resources – can sweep in to fill political voids. > > Thats what happend in Florida, where Republican-allied national groups with very deep pockets rushed in to rescue Jolly’s candidacy. > > According to an analysis by Center for Public Integrity: > > • The National Republican Congressional Committee poured $2.2 million into the district. > > • The US Chamber of Commerce came through with $1.2 million. > > • The American Action Network, a group with close ties to the national GOP establishment, ponied up $470,000. > > • Karl Rove’s American Crossroads project was good for $470,000. > > The Florida Republican Party and other Republican-allied and conservative groups pumped hundreds of thousands of additional dollars into the district. > > To be sure, outside groups that favored Sink spent heavily on the race. But, while Sink’s campaign had the direct-donation advantage,Jolly got the outside advantage. Roughly $5 million in outside money aided the Republican’s cause, as compared with roughly $3.7 million from groups that were friendly to the Democrat, according to the Center for Public Integrity. That allowed the Republican to come on strong at the close. And the pro-Jolly and anti-Sink messaging by the outside groups was not just well-funded. It was aggressive, targeted and effective. This something that Democrats need to understand before they make the wrong excuses for losing a race they had desperately hoped to win – because the pattern that played out in Florida’s special election is not unique to one race or one moment; it will be seen throughout this critical election year. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/31 "2014-03-12T16:28:00Z")
Own money: Jolly-$1.3 million Sink-$2.6 million Outside money: Jolly-$5 million Sink-$3.7 million Totals- Jolly-$6.3 million Sink-$6.3 million Looks fair to me, with a slight advantage to Sink for having control over a higher percentage. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2014, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/32 "2014-03-12T19:44:12Z")
[From Salon:](http://www.salon.com/2014/03/12/gop_peddles_snake_oil_about_florida_election_lessons_from_last_nights_race/) > [@](#): > > However, if conservatives are being honest, they need to first acknowledge that — _all_ issues aside — the 2014 map is vastly friendlier to Republicans than Democrats, and argue from there. Do they really think that absent Obamacare, Democrats would be sitting pretty? Or that a better rollout would’ve changed the map? Do they think Obamacare will be the difference between zero (or a couple) Senate pickups and the six or more they need to control the Senate? It’s entirely feasible to me that Republicans will retake the Senate in 2014, and even that Obamacare might account for the margin. But I have yet to hear many reasoned arguments for any of those individual propositions on the right. All I hear are fundamentally dishonest arguments that wish the structural advantage out of existence. > > \ > > Looking at this race in isolation, you have to disentangle a bunch of connected factors to suss out how much impact Obamacare had. First, start from the fact that this historically GOP-leaning district went very narrowly for Obama in November 2012. Then correct for the fact that the special election took place in March 2014, no Obama on the ticket, and Obamacare central to the GOP campaign. But then recorrect for the fact that a talented Libertarian candidate in this elderly district probably siphoned more votes away from Sink than from Jolly (though that’s unclear as well). Add in subjective candidate quality critiques, fundraising, counterfactuals and so on and so on, and it’s suddenly extremely difficult to say how much narrower Sink’s defeat would have been were it not for Obamacare — or if Obamacare was truly decisive. > > Isolating an “Obamacare effect” is pretty complex, and anyone claiming today that the Obamacare effect was _huge_ or obviously decisive is probably peddling snake oil. > > But still, I’m persuadable that such an effect exists. And even if the “Obamacare effect” was only 1 percent in FL-13 — that is, Sink would’ve lost anyhow, but by a smaller margin — that’s a fairly ominous snapshot for vulnerable Democratic senators who are defending their seats in states Obama lost by wide margins, not just states he won narrowly. A 1-percent effect in FL-13 might be amplified in more conservative parts of the country and translate into a significantly larger effect in states like Arkansas and Louisiana. > > But Arkansas, Louisiana and every other contested Senate election isn’t happening in March. It’s not sufficient to note that Republicans gave their Obamacare strategy a test drive in FL-13 without noting that they did it _during the rollout of Obamacare,_ which has been disruptive and at times downright embarrassing. I know conservatives like to believe they can play this one-note symphony for eight straight months, all the way to a resounding November crescendo, but there’s little evidence that this issue is paying off significantly for Republicans now, let alone that it will prove so durable. And even if it paid off measurably in March, it could still fall apart as frustration with the rollout and cancellations subsides, and Republicans begin grappling with what to do about constituents who are enjoying new benefits. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/33 "2014-03-13T02:40:52Z")
And there’s the “structural advantage” again. We heard about that in 2010. Sure, due to the number of seats they are defending and the six-year itch, Democrats should be expected to lose ground. But the thorough ass-kicking they received in 2010 was more than structural, and if it happens again, that’s a big deal. What Shodan said has plenty of merit: A whole crapload of Democrats never believe they were rejected by the voters. There’s always some excuse. Geez, at least cling to the idea that they weren’t far left enough. A blatantly liberal national campaign might do worse than what Democrats currently do, but they won’t know until they try one. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/34 "2014-03-13T12:10:19Z")
What the race shows is that the Democrats simply have to aggressively debunk the “$716 Billion Taken From Medicare For Obamacare” lie. It’s complete and total bullshit but it is effective if you don’t fight back. Bill Clinton had the masterful comeback, saying Paul Ryan had stones to complain about something and turn around and do the same thing himself. But save for Bill Clinton, Democrats are clueless about how to debunk the Republican lies about the ACA. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/35 "2014-03-13T13:23:22Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > So Jolly won by around 2%. > > For the life of me, I haven’t been able to figure out why the press has been spinning this election as some kind of harbinger of things to come in November. From how I see it, it’s an off-season special election in a hugely gerrymandered R district. The fact that the Dem came so close to clinching it is actually pretty impressive; it does show, however, that the Dem off-year voter turnout machine could still use a little work. How is it gerrymandered? It’s almost got even registrations between Republicans and Democrats. Geographically it comprises basically the entire Pinellas peninsula and Pinellas county outside of St. Petersburg so it seems to make geographic “sense” and follows compactness norms. Considering districts aren’t supposed to have more than around 700,000 not sure how you’d really change the lines around that area. Pinellas county sans St. Petersburg has almost a million people in it so there is no way to include the whole county. Anyway, the press has made every special election since at least the year 2000 a harbinger of things to come in the next general, and while I didn’t notice it being so universal before then I’ve seen similar noise during basically every special election held in my lifetime. The simple answer is most special elections are boring and uninteresting to most people, but by linking them with the next general the press can cover it and generate interest, which is what the media likes to do. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/36 "2014-03-13T15:48:49Z")
In spite of the pre-election predictions, a majority of the few voters who actually turned out to vote, voted for Jolly rather than for Sink. Both campaigns, both political parties (local and national), and numerous other organizations have spent dozens of dollars to win this election but elections still come down to voter turnout. Considering what was spent on these campaigns, most of the potential voters weren’t impressed enough with either campaign to take the time to vote. Maybe if Obama had campaigned for Sink, the margin would have been much greater? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2014, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958/37 "2014-03-13T23:14:06Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What the race shows is that the Democrats simply have to aggressively debunk the “$716 Billion Taken From Medicare For Obamacare” lie. It’s complete and total bullshit but it is effective if you don’t fight back. Bill Clinton had the masterful comeback, saying Paul Ryan had stones to complain about something and turn around and do the same thing himself. But save for Bill Clinton, Democrats are clueless about how to debunk the Republican lies about the ACA. If it’s bullshit, then how come Medicare Advantage benefits are being reduced? You are wrong that it is total bullshit, because $716 billion has in fact been taken from Medicare. Democrats’ defense is that it’s from providers only and doesn’t reduce benefits. I’d say the public can judge whether their benefits have been cut or not. But disputing the number is just wrong. ACA is paid for with the biggest chunk coming out of future Medicare spending. This is indisputable. Secondly, it’s awfully rich to continue to whine about Republican lies about ACA when the most consequential lies, lies that have actually affected real people, have all been on the Democratic side. The Democratic side’s credibility on the issue is gone. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-3-11-14-special-election-for-fla-13th-hor-district/682958.md?page=1)