# Handicapping the Pennsylvania primary, 4/22/08 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 28, 2008, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056 "2008-03-28T15:42:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/241 "2008-04-22T01:55:30Z")
At this point, I’m just glad Pennsylvania’s finally going to be over after tomorrow. I’m voting before work…my polling place is about two blocks from my house. God, it’ll be nice NOT to be the center of attention for a little while…I seriously don’t know how you Iowa and New Hampshire folks do it! I’m in primary overload after six weeks! I can’t imagine how I’d feel after six MONTHS of this… ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/242 "2008-04-22T02:42:53Z")
Hell, I don’t even _live_ in PA and I’m getting a little sick of it. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/243 "2008-04-22T03:56:51Z")
Random point: Tomorrow’s movie day. Cloverfield’s coming out on DVD. This means people who want to get it will have to leave the house _anyhow_… Every little bit of movement helps. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/244 "2008-04-22T04:28:57Z")
One other cause for greater optimism than I had at the time I made my prediction - the polls seem to be documenting a bump up _in progress_ as a result of Obama weathering these recent travails and Clinton’s coming off a bit on the snide side. Moreover going into election day with everyone predicting that you’ll win perversely enough may make some less enthusiastic to come out for her. Am I going to get to sleep tomorrow night? ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/245 "2008-04-22T05:48:06Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] One other cause for greater optimism than I had at the time I made my prediction - the polls seem to be documenting a bump up _in progress_ as a result of Obama weathering these recent travails and Clinton’s coming off a bit on the snide side. Moreover going into election day with everyone predicting that you’ll win perversely enough may make some less enthusiastic to come out for her. Am I going to get to sleep tomorrow night? [/QUOTE] Am I going to get to sleep tonight?!? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 10:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/246 "2008-04-22T10:05:31Z")
What time do polls close tonight? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 10:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/247 "2008-04-22T10:28:57Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] What time do polls close tonight? [/QUOTE] 8pm I believe. [Cite](http://www.seventy.org/electioninfo/07elections/may07faqs.pdf) - it’s a pdf. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/248 "2008-04-22T11:22:22Z")
Obama has 1 vote in Allegheny County. I was at the polling place when it opened. I can’t say that turnout was any different than usual. It is a small suburban polling place though. ---
**Author:** ![Siege](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dbc845/32.png) [@Siege](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siege)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/249 "2008-04-22T11:22:37Z")
It’s 8:00 pm. I’ll be voting later this morning, and I’ll let you know what the lines look like. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/250 "2008-04-22T12:27:37Z")
Yesterday, CNN was reporting a big surge in new voter registrations. This morning, NPR said PA election officials were expecting about twice the turnout they got in 2004. Does the polling capture new registrations and first-time primary voters very well? I’m wondering: if the pollsters pick their sample off previous primary voter rolls, and undercount new voters, they might be way off this time. [wishful thinking] So, if Obama gets a big enough margin among new voters, maybe he’ll pull out a squeaker?[/wishful thinking]. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/251 "2008-04-22T12:41:45Z")
[QUOTE=Bayard] Yesterday, CNN was reporting a big surge in new voter registrations. This morning, NPR said PA election officials were expecting about twice the turnout they got in 2004. Does the polling capture new registrations and first-time primary voters very well? I’m wondering: if the pollsters pick their sample off previous primary voter rolls, and undercount new voters, they might be way off this time. [wishful thinking] So, if Obama gets a big enough margin among new voters, maybe he’ll pull out a squeaker?[/wishful thinking]. [/QUOTE] That’s not wishful thinking that’s what is on the minds of a lot of us poll-followers here on the SDMB. All polls account for a margin of error usually +/- 3 and with-in that you may find your new registrants. However, maybe not. The media has been pounding Pennsylvanians as has each candidate. I’d say the fence sitters are going to swing Obama and I say this in light of HRC’s recent comments about Obliterating Iranians, using Osama Bin Laden in one of her attack ads, and her basic use of GOP tactics. Something can be said about toughening Obama up for the fight in the fall. I do not see any real evidence that he won’t be the nominee, and with endorsement, adter endorsement after endorsement he only strengthens his plight. You see, I’ve said it before here on the boards, big party dems - upper echelon dems - who are backing Obama are doing so in my opinion because of what he stands for and what he has inspired in millions of people. In many ways this election is about a movement and not about a man, the movement is more important than the man. And by in large people understand that. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/252 "2008-04-22T13:02:11Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I’d like to mention one thing to all those folks panning on voting for Obama [/quote] > [@Philosphr](#): > > I do not see any real evidence that he won’t be the nominee, and with endorsement, adter endorsement after endorsement he only strengthens his plight. Are these just accidental slips, or are you really depressed about Obama’s chances, **Philosphr**? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/253 "2008-04-22T13:12:15Z")
[QUOTE=Jackmannii] Are these just accidental slips, or are you really depressed about Obama’s chances, **Philosphr**? 😛 [/QUOTE] Doh :smack: Must… Get… More… COFFEE… ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/254 "2008-04-22T13:19:38Z")
[QUOTE=Bayard] \ Does the polling capture new registrations and first-time primary voters very well? \ [/QUOTE] The way I understand it, individuals who are polled are first asked a series of questions which determines their likelyhood of actually casting a ballot. One of the questions asks if the person has voted in the past. That answer helps weight the response of that individual relative to the rest of the people being polled. So, in other words, the pollsters do try to take new voters into account. But, as with other factors, it is based on empirical evidence of the past and is subject to change. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/255 "2008-04-22T13:59:32Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I’d say the fence sitters are going to swing Obama [/quote] I don’t see the undecideds breaking for Obama significantly. I think those folks’ll split pretty evenly between him and Clinton. > [@phlosphr](#): > > and I say this in light of HRC’s recent comments about Obliterating Iranians, using Osama Bin Laden in one of her attack ads, and her basic use of GOP tactics. I’d say it’s too little, too late to make a difference, especially for today’s primary. [QUOTE=Phlosphr] You see, I’ve said it before here on the boards, big party dems - upper echelon dems - who are backing Obama are doing so in my opinion because of what he stands for and what he has inspired in millions of people. In many ways this election is about a movement and not about a man, the movement is more important than the man. And by in large people understand that. [/QUOTE] I appreciate your enthusiasm, I really do but, at least in the vast expanses of rural PA, Obama’s movement is too nebulous a concept to mean jack squat to working class whites without college educations. Obama’s skin color, now that’s something they understand. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/256 "2008-04-22T14:07:42Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] I don’t see the undecideds breaking for Obama significantly. I think those folks’ll split pretty evenly between him and Clinton.I’d say it’s too little, too late to make a difference, especially for today’s primary.I appreciate your enthusiasm, I really do but, at least in the vast expanses of rural PA, Obama’s movement is too nebulous a concept to mean jack squat to working class whites without college educations. Obama’s skin color, now that’s something they understand. [/QUOTE] It’s sad but true…The saddest part in my opinion is the negative campaigning and choice of negative icons Clinton is using against Obama. She may well take a victory, but I bet he keeps it close. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/257 "2008-04-22T14:08:23Z")
Is it over yet? Can I turn on the radio? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/258 "2008-04-22T14:09:53Z")
[QUOTE=Paul in Saudi] Is it over yet? Can I turn on the radio? [/QUOTE] 10 hours left man. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/259 "2008-04-22T14:16:30Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] 10 hours left man. 😃 [/QUOTE] Not according to Hillary. For her, it won’t end until August 28th. And even then I have my doubts. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2008, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/260 "2008-04-22T14:26:25Z")
[QUOTE=Liberal] Not according to Hillary. For her, it won’t end until August 28th. And even then I have my doubts. [/QUOTE] Me too. I think they will have to call the brut squad in when they announce Barack Obama as the nominee - because she will insist that the tally is wrong and that she actually won. Not enough rolleyes in the world unfortunately for her antics this campaign season. I expected her to get down and dirty, but her BS as of the last few months is utter crap. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=14)