# Handicapping the Pennsylvania primary, 4/22/08 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 28, 2008, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056 "2008-03-28T15:42:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/41 "2008-04-03T16:18:53Z")
It’s a crap shoot. I think it’s clear that Wright has wounded Obama as much as it’s going to, and that the phony Bosnian snipers have seriously crippled Clinton. It’s anyone’s guess if the Republicans switching to Democratic registration are more of a case of Republicans that like Obama or those who are participating in Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos. I don’t believe we have demographics of the newly registered voters, one would think that if they are largely young voters than Obama has a boost. How much pull does Casey and Heinz-Kerry have with the voters? Still there are 19 days to go and trends could reverse, but it’s beginning to look more likely that Hillary wins by fewer than 10 points, quite possible that she wins by less than 5, and not impossible for her to lose outright. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/42 "2008-04-03T16:42:03Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] the phony Bosnian snipers have seriously crippled Clinton. [/quote] Got to wonder what sort of world we’re in, when nonexistent snipers can shoot down a Presidential candidate. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/43 "2008-04-03T17:24:29Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Got to wonder what sort of world we’re in, when nonexistent snipers can shoot down a Presidential candidate. 😃 [/QUOTE] Glad to see that my little word play was not unnoticed. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/44 "2008-04-03T18:23:12Z")
The polling firm Insider Advantage has Clinton up in Pennsylvania by 3 points. No matter how you look at it, the trend is definately against her. Usual caveats about the 18 days remaining, etc. ---
**Author:** ![MsRobyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/90ced4/32.png) [@MsRobyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsRobyn)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/45 "2008-04-03T19:05:08Z")
I know this counts for beans, but I see an awful lot of Obama bumper stickers and yard signs in the Harrisburg area. I’m planning to vote for him, and most of my friends are, as well. Robin ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/46 "2008-04-03T19:14:45Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] The polling firm Insider Advantage has Clinton up in Pennsylvania by 3 points. No matter how you look at it, the trend is definately against her. Usual caveats about the 18 days remaining, etc. [/QUOTE] Insider Advantage isn’t the world’s greatest pollster either, but when even two crappy pollsters come up with essentially the same result (both IA and PPP having Clinton and Obama essentially tied in PA), you’ve got to start thinking there may be something there. Looking at the [RCP PA poll summary](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls), the Q-poll can be explained away by its long polling period, which now goes back a ways. But even with Rasmussen, IA, and PPP on the other side, I hate to go against SUSA, given just how stellar their record has been this year. But they push leaners harder than most surveys, and maybe a lot of those leaners who were leaning Hillary are now leaning Obama. If Obama wins PA, it’s over, of course. But even if Hillary pulls out a close one, it’s still over: where’s she going to close the delegate and popular vote gap? PA’s her last big chance on both. Obama’s gonna get a net win on May 6 (NC/IN), and after that it’s nickels and dimes the rest of the way. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/47 "2008-04-04T13:52:35Z")
[SUSA](http://www.nbc10.com/news/15759420/detail.html) may indeed still be giving Clinton a 12 point lead, but they are consistent with the others showing which way it’s going. > [@](#): > > the poll showed Obama gaining ground in the Keystone State, particularly in cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and among older voters, men and conservative Democrats. > > Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Clinton is down two points and Obama is up five, with Clinton’s previous 19-point lead cut to 12, the survey found. So a 7-point swing. Rasmussen saw an 8 point swing in the same time period (from a 13 to a 5-point Clinton advantage.) Clearly not pointing to the blow-out that Clinton needs. Do these numbers portend some desperate ploy from her team to come in the remaining time? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/48 "2008-04-04T14:05:42Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Clearly not pointing to the blow-out that Clinton needs. Do these numbers portend some desperate ploy from her team to come in the remaining time? [/QUOTE] The new spin from the Hillary camp is that Obama NEEDS to WIN Pennsylvania. Which is bullpuckey. I really want some central PA news stations to pick up on the Mark Penn business trip to Colombia to negotiate a free-trade agreement for the Colombian government. Clinton herself says that she opposes this agreement. Doesn’t Mark Penn’s direct involvement with the government of Colombia as his CLIENT pose a major conflict of interest? ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/49 "2008-04-04T14:51:17Z")
She said _whatnow_? I think the word from his camp was ‘bringing it within 10% is a win.’ ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/50 "2008-04-04T15:16:16Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] She said _whatnow_? [/QUOTE] It was actually “Baghdad Howie” Wolfson, quoted [here](http://www.campaignsandelections.com/stories/?StoryID=1969C83B-1422-17E0-F8EDC6105EE6C4B2): > [@](#): > > As for the Clinton camp, it’s already spinning the possibility of a closer than expected margin in Pennsylvania. “I believe that a win is a win,” said Communications Director Howard Wolfson on a conference call with reporters Thursday. “Senator Obama ought to be able to win. If they fail to win there, they will have failed in Pennsylvania.” ---
**Author:** ![Ocean\_Annie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8797f3/32.png) [@Ocean\_Annie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ocean_Annie)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/51 "2008-04-04T15:17:46Z")
Is there any chance that Obama will win PA? He is fighting hard, so it \*could \*happen. Clinton will have a hard time justifying her bid if she loses PA. I would love to see Obama win and put an end to this Primary. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/52 "2008-04-04T15:20:26Z")
[QUOTE=unconventional] Is there any chance that Obama will win PA? He is fighting hard, so it \*could \*happen. Clinton will have a hard time justifying her bid if she loses PA. I would love to see Obama win and put an end to this Primary. [/QUOTE] If the numbers keep going up the way they’ve been trending, it’s just barely possible. But it’s going to be very hard. Pennsylvania has two of the most entrenched political machines still going, and those machines are both touting for Clinton. I will personally be absolutely ecstatic and speechless if PA falls on Obama’s side (and I’ll be personally helping it go that way) but I’ll still be happy if he loses, as long as the margin is under 10%. ---
**Author:** ![Ocean\_Annie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/8797f3/32.png) [@Ocean\_Annie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ocean_Annie)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/53 "2008-04-04T15:30:57Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] If the numbers keep going up the way they’ve been trending, it’s just barely possible. But it’s going to be very hard. Pennsylvania has two of the most entrenched political machines still going, and those machines are both touting for Clinton. I will personally be absolutely ecstatic and speechless if PA falls on Obama’s side (and I’ll be personally helping it go that way) but I’ll still be happy if he loses, as long as the margin is under 10%. [/QUOTE] I know – me too. It would be a great upset, champagne all around. Obama is campaigning differently in PA than he did in Ohio, and he does have a nice endorsement. My understanding is that he didn’t have any endorsements in Ohio. Ed Rendell was on Fox News praising the fair and balanced coverage. I have to wonder whose team the Clintons represent. [Link](http://www.truveo.com/Gov-Ed-Rendell-on-Fox-Friends/id/1533510924) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/54 "2008-04-04T15:39:18Z")
They can try to spin all they like but even [Bill](http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/11/757889.aspx) has said that “She’s got to win a big victory” in PA … “a big, big victory” And even her solid supporters like [Corzine and Murtha](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/03/clinton-backers-she-must-win-popular-vote/) know that “the New York senator needs to best rival Barack Obama in the total popular vote to have any chance at winning her party’s presidential nomination.” If she’s kept under a 15% victory that popular vote victory really does become even more impossible. Continuation would be a farce but she’d do it if she wins by more than 10%. Really she needs 20% to set up the possibility of running the rest of the table. Under 10% and Obama can declare victory. Less than 5% and she’ll likely concede even before NC/IN. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/55 "2008-04-04T16:13:55Z")
Polls, schmolls. I predict Hillary by at least 12%. I’m in PA, on average, around twice a week, granted it’s for Merck in West Point, but the sense I get from local folks (excluding those who won’t vote for a Black man no matter what) is Obama is their second choice. As long as Hillary is in the race she will get their votes. I will be stunned if Obama keeps it within 10% ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/56 "2008-04-04T16:47:09Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] I really want some central PA news stations to pick up on the Mark Penn business trip to Colombia to negotiate a free-trade agreement for the Colombian government. Clinton herself says that she opposes this agreement. Doesn’t Mark Penn’s direct involvement with the government of Colombia as his CLIENT pose a major conflict of interest? [/QUOTE] Looks like you might be on your way to getting your wish. The Page at [Time.com](http://Time.com) is [all over it](http://thepage.time.com/2008/04/04/wsj-mark-penn-held-talks-on-colombia-trade-deal-opposed-by-clinton/), based on an [article published in today’s Wall Street Journal](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120726769569388303.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news) on the matter. I’ve noticed that when Mark Halperin reports something on his site, it tends to go viral not long after. I think we’re going to start hearing more and more about this. ::crossing fingers:: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/57 "2008-04-04T17:12:56Z")
BTW, [Jimmy Carter just endorsed Obama, kindasorta, in a wink-nudge way.](http://www.democracynow.org/2008/4/4/headlines#10) ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/58 "2008-04-04T17:41:38Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] BTW, [Jimmy Carter just endorsed Obama, kindasorta, in a wink-nudge way.](http://www.democracynow.org/2008/4/4/headlines#10) [/QUOTE] That’s not surprising, actually, either his sympathies or his coyness. Carter is of the old-school political figures. He doesn’t think a former president should endorse before a nominee is definite because such a figure wields outsized amounts of influence. So he’s not going to formally endorse, but he’s obviously touting Obama. Which again, is not a surprise. He and the Clintons have frosty relations. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/59 "2008-04-04T17:42:45Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] I’ve noticed that when Mark Halperin reports something on his site, it tends to go viral not long after. I think we’re going to start hearing more and more about this. ::crossing fingers:: [/QUOTE] \ Excelleeeent…\ ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/60 "2008-04-04T17:48:09Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] I really want some central PA news stations to pick up on the Mark Penn business trip to Colombia to negotiate a free-trade agreement for the Colombian government. Clinton herself says that she opposes this agreement. Doesn’t Mark Penn’s direct involvement with the government of Colombia as his CLIENT pose a major conflict of interest? [/QUOTE] I’m not entirely sure that’s true by the standards of the public-relations profession. Does anybody know? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=4)