# Handicapping the Pennsylvania primary, 4/22/08 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 28, 2008, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056 "2008-03-28T15:42:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/81 "2008-04-07T16:13:25Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] And Penn is still there…he’s just been kicked to the backroom where we can’t actually see him twitching the strings. He’s still doing that, there are just more pullies involved now… [/QUOTE] Cite? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/82 "2008-04-07T16:20:36Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Cite? [/QUOTE] From [Yahoo! News](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080407/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_penn): > [@](#): > > Communications director Howard Wolfson and pollster Geoff Garin will direct the campaign’s message and strategic efforts for the campaign going forward, said campaign manager Maggie Williams. She said Penn will continue “to provide polling and advice to the campaign.” He’s still there. He’s just not doing any public spokesmanship for her now. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/83 "2008-04-07T17:09:09Z")
This is probably news to no one on the board, but [CNN’s “poll of polls”](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/07/poll-of-polls-race-tightens-in-pennsylvania/) shows Clinton with a 7-point lead over Obama in PA, with 9 percent undecided. How reliable have CNN’s polls-of-polls been in the past? Seven percent with two weeks to go seems to bode well for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/84 "2008-04-07T17:50:56Z")
[QUOTE=Bayard] This is probably news to no one on the board, but [CNN’s “poll of polls”](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/07/poll-of-polls-race-tightens-in-pennsylvania/) shows Clinton with a 7-point lead over Obama in PA, with 9 percent undecided. How reliable have CNN’s polls-of-polls been in the past? Seven percent with two weeks to go seems to bode well for Obama. [/QUOTE] Dunno, but this seems to be the same idea as similar averages by [RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls) and [Pollster.com](http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php). Having watched the polling game enough to build up at least some intuition about who’s good and who’s not so good, I tend to look at which pollster as well as what the numbers are. Survey USA is particularly good, and IF last week’s poll was the first of a weekly series of polls, they may have a new PA poll out in the morning. So I’m waiting on that. I would put only the most minimal weight on ARG, PPP, and Muhlenberg. Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, and Strategic Vision are pretty good. Research 2000 is very good, but they’ve not done a PA poll recently. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/85 "2008-04-07T19:24:33Z")
That’s about how I put things, myself. That said, Obama does have the edge on getting people _to_ the polls, so he usually outperforms his polling, except in the most heated battles. Which this really is. Hum. Still, as long as his campaign sticks with, ‘If we lose by less than 10%, it’s a victory.’ as their expected margin, there’s pretty much no way they can lose. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/86 "2008-04-07T19:32:18Z")
[QUOTE=ZebraShaSha] Man, the Clinton campaign is _comically_ messed up. It’s absurd how far they have gone to screw up the nomination. [/QUOTE] Mrs. Clinton, we’ve traced that 3:00 a.m. call. _It’s coming from inside the house!_ ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/87 "2008-04-07T20:38:16Z")
[Interesting article](http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/3597/the_clinton_firewall/) on the “Race Chasm”: > [@](#): > > As the Race Chasm graph shows, when you chart Obama’s margin of victory or defeat against the percentage of African-Americans living in that state, a striking U trend emerges. That precipitous dip in Obama’s performance in states with a big-but-not-huge African-American population is the Race Chasm—and that chasm is no coincidence. > > \ > > In sum, Obama has only been able to eke out victories in three states with Race Chasm demographics, where African-American populations make up more than 6 percent but less than 17 percent of the total population. And those three states provided him extra advantages: He won Illinois, his home state; Missouri, an Illinois border state; and Connecticut, a state whose Democratic electorate just two years before supported Ned Lamont’s insurgent candidacy against Joe Lieberman, and therefore had uniquely developed infrastructure and political cultures inclined to support an outsider candidacy. Meanwhile, three-quarters of all the states Clinton has won are those with Race Chasm demographics. > > Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), a Clinton supporter, publicly acknowledged this dynamic in February. He suggested to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial board that Obama’s ethnicity could prevent him from winning the state, which, at 10.6 percent black, falls squarely in the Race Chasm. > > “You’ve got conservative whites here, and I think there are some whites who are probably not ready to vote for an African-American candidate,” Rendell said. > > That was echoed by Obama supporter David K. Levdansky, a state representative from western Pennsylvania. “For all our wanting to believe that race is less of an issue than ever before, the reality of racism still exists,” he told the New York Times. “It’s not that [Pennsylvanians] don’t think he’s qualified, but some people fear that it might be empowering the black community by electing Obama.” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2008, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/88 "2008-04-08T16:54:57Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Survey USA is particularly good, and IF last week’s poll was the first of a weekly series of polls, they may have a new PA poll out in the morning. So I’m waiting on that. [/quote] Ouch. [SUSA says Clinton’s up by 18.](http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61cf729b7) Yeah, they seem out in left field, compared to everyone else. But there were a number of states, especially on Super Tuesday, when they were way off from where the pack of pollsters was, and they were right anyway. California, Massachusetts, to a lesser extent NJ. > [@](#): > > Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, and Strategic Vision are pretty good. And their latest polls have Clinton up by 6, 5, and 8, respectively. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2008, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/89 "2008-04-08T19:53:32Z")
Fascinating. A bit humbling, too. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2008, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/90 "2008-04-08T19:59:48Z")
All of the polls in the last week have had Obama with-in +/- 8 I’m not putting much stock in the SUSA poll. I’ve worked with the quinnipiac folks when I was an instructor in CT…it’s daunting work, but those folks do a decent job at their craft. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2008, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/91 "2008-04-08T21:07:07Z")
I’m not believing the SUSA poll, but I’m not disbelieving it, either. It it was anyone else, I’d regard it as trash - but like I said, they’ve bucked the trend and been right in doing so a few times already this season. Nothing against the Q-poll folks; like I said, I think they’re pretty good. But SUSA is almost unnervingly good at times. Even if it’s SUSA against the field, I’m more than a bit hesitant to bet on the field. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2008, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/92 "2008-04-09T00:51:52Z")
I have a hard time understanding how different polls can not only be so different but track in such strongly different directions. Be that as it may … if she really does perform like that or better then the fork might need to loosened a small bit. Winning by 20% could give her the chance at running the table she’d need. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2008, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/93 "2008-04-09T02:18:20Z")
It seems this year that from Sunday until Tuesday of the election, all the undecideds break one way. In New Hampshire, it was Hillary. In Wisconsin, Obama. I think the polls on the 21st will show about a 10 point Clinton spread, and depending on the break it will be either 5 or 15 when the votes are tallied. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2008, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/94 "2008-04-10T18:50:56Z")
If you like to gamble: [Intrade is now favoring Obama to win the nomination, with an 86% chance to HRC’s 12.8%.](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080408/pl_nm/usa_politics_predictions_dc) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2008, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/95 "2008-04-10T20:49:58Z")
However, [a new AP poll shows Obama’s lead in a hypothetical matchup with McCain has vanished.](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2008, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/96 "2008-04-10T21:14:51Z")
But Obama is getting some important [endorsements from Philadelphia pols.](http://www.philly.com/inquirer/breaking/news_breaking/20080410_Obama_to_receive_Phila__endorsements_today.html) ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2008, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/97 "2008-04-10T21:17:40Z")
I don’t have a lot of faith in general primary polls until the Democratic nominee is decided. I have a hard time believing that either side of the Democratic divide is going to show 25-33% defection. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ll worry more about it come September. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2008, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/98 "2008-04-11T01:04:33Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] I don’t have a lot of faith in general primary polls until the Democratic nominee is decided. I have a hard time believing that either side of the Democratic divide is going to show 25-33% defection. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ll worry more about it come September. [/QUOTE] I’ll be worrying about it sooner than that. Kerry’s (Swiftboat) August nosedive in 2004 put him behind in the race for good. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2008, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/99 "2008-04-11T15:46:24Z")
[Barack Obama may lose support in Philadelphia over ‘street money’](http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-streetmoney11apr11,0,6553901.story) > [@](#): > > Fourteen months into a campaign that has the feel of a movement, Sen. Barack Obama has collided with the gritty political traditions of Philadelphia, where ward bosses love their candidates, but also expect them to pay up. > > The dispute centers on the dispensing of “street money,” a long-standing Philadelphia ritual in which candidates deliver cash to the city’s Democratic operatives in return for getting out the vote. > > Flush with payments from well-funded campaigns, the ward leaders and Democratic Party bosses typically spread out the cash in the days before the election, handing $10, $20 and $50 bills to the foot soldiers and loyalists who make up the party’s workforce. > > It is all legal – but Obama’s people are telling the local bosses he won’t pay. > > . . . > > “We’ve heard directly from the Obama organizer who organizes our ward, and he told us it’s an entirely volunteer organization and that I should not expect to see anything from the Obama campaign other than ads on TV and the support that volunteers are giving us,” said Greg Paulmier, a ward leader in the northwest part of the city. > > . . . > > Carol Ann Campbell, a ward leader and Democratic superdelegate who supports Obama, estimated that the amount of street money Obama would need to lay out for election day is $400,000 to $500,000. > > “This is a machine city, and ward leaders have to pay their committee people,” Campbell said. “Barack Obama’s campaign doesn’t pay workers, and I guarantee you if they don’t put up some money for those street workers, those leaders will most likely take Clinton money. It won’t stop him from winning Philadelphia, but he won’t come out with the numbers that he needs” to win the state. > > . . . I cannot begin to tell you how offensive I find this. It’s nothing short of legalized extortion. It literally reminds me of the damn mob! Oh, but it gets worse – they’re also accusing Obama of being racist, funneling all of his millions to the white television station owners while refusing to pay bribe money to the poor black folk on the streets. :eek: > [@](#): > > . . . A neutral observer, state Rep. Dwight Evans, whose district is in northwest Philadelphia, said there might be a racial subtext to the dispute. Ward leaders, he said, see Obama airing millions of dollars worth of television ads in the city – money that benefits largely white station owners, feeding resentment. People wonder why Obama isn’t sharing the largesse with the largely African American field workers trying to get him elected, Evans said. > > “They view it that the white people are getting all the money for TV,” said Evans, an African American and former ward leader. “And they’re the ones who are the foot soldiers on the street. They’re predominantly African Americans, and they’re not the ones who are getting that TV money.” > > Hardscrabble neighborhoods across the city have come to depend on street money as a welcome payday for knocking on doors, handing out leaflets and speaking to voters as they arrive at polling places. > > Peter Wilson, a ward leader from West Philadelphia, said: “Most of the ward leaders, we live in a very poor area, and people look forward to election days. . . . People are astute. They know the Obama campaign has raised millions of dollars.” > > . . . So they should _expect_ to get a piece of it? It’s like when someone wins the lottery and his friends get all pissed off that he won’t share his new-found wealth. What the hell makes them think they _deserve_ it? This is insane! And it’s exactly the kind of thing that Obama has been campaigning about – changing the long-standing “buying” of elections bullshit. > [@](#): > > Campbell said she could not in good conscience ask people to work for Obama for free. > > “I’m not going to do that,” said Campbell, who heads a coalition of black ward leaders. “There are a lot of poor people here.” > > . . . What a crock! Millions of people across this nation have been _volunteering_ for this campaign, digging into their own pockets to fly from state to state, buying campaign materials, pounding the pavement, using their cell minutes to make calls. What the hell makes these people think they should be any different? Oh yeah, they’re “poor”. As if no poor people in any other state have volunteered their time knocking on their neighbors’ doors in an effort to improve people’s lives. This “what’s in it for me” attitude makes me sick. > [@](#): > > With a week and a half left before the election, political leaders hope that Obama will relent. And I hope he sticks to his guns, loss or no loss. I say Philadelphia can go F themselves. > [@](#): > > Garry Williams, a ward leader based in north-central Philadelphia, said that he had not heard directly that the Obama campaign was withholding money. But he said payment would be needed. Workers who are in the field for Obama on April 22 will put in days stretching from 12 to 16 hours, he said. > > “It’s our tradition,” Williams said. “You don’t come to someone’s house and change the rules of someone’s house. That’s just respect.” Oh, so you support him, but are completely ignoring the bigass CHANGE signs that are the backdrop of his campaign. So in other words, you’re greedy _and_ you’re stupid. There simply aren’t enough rolleyes in the universe for this crap. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2008, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/100 "2008-04-11T15:59:12Z")
I don’t know if I’d go so far as extortion. It sounds more like old-time political boss corruption to me. But the entitled, whiny attitude is ugly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=6)