# Handicapping the Pennsylvania primary, 4/22/08 **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 28, 2008, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056 "2008-03-28T15:42:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2008, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/121 "2008-04-15T21:03:11Z")
Ah. Here’s [a link](http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/upcoming-new-la.html) concerning the L.A.Times/Bloomberg poll. > [@](#): > > We’re not quite ready to reveal the numbers; the findings and an analysis of them will be available here about 2 p.m. (PDT). But, in line with a Quinnipiac poll released today for Pennsylvania, the Times/Bloomberg survey reports little change in what had been the trend in the state as its April 22 primary approaches, despite the firestorm over Obama’s comments about the mentality of some denizens of small towns. > > Same goes for North Carolina – prevailing voter attitudes there in the May 6 face-off between Hillary Clinton and Obama do not seem to have been reshaped by the controversy. > > The big surprise emerged from Indiana, which also holds its primary on May 6. So far, little polling has been conducted there, but what has been done has been positive for Clinton. No so with these new numbers. [And the results are in.](http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll16apr16,0,794499.story) ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2008, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/122 "2008-04-15T21:06:51Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Thing is, Hillary needed “bitter” to do more than halt his momentum; she needed it to knock him way down in the polls, both PA and nationally. Hasn’t happened, and I just saw a new poll today that has him up by 5 in Indiana. [/QUOTE] Hillary is done either way and has been for quite a while but the way things were going before bittergate PA could have been the knockout punch. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2008, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/123 "2008-04-15T21:07:18Z")
[QUOTE=EddyTeddyFreddy] Thing is, Hillary needed “bitter” to do more than halt his momentum; she needed it to knock him way down in the polls, both PA and nationally. Hasn’t happened, and I just saw a new poll today that has him up by 5 in Indiana. [/QUOTE] [LA Times/Bloomberg](http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-poll16apr16,1,5167344.story): > [@](#): > > The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party’s nomination. > > What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters. > > In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead. > > The race remains volatile, however, because many likely voters in the Democratic primaries are still undecided – 12% in Pennsylvania, 19% in Indiana and 17% in North Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2008, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/124 "2008-04-15T22:00:38Z")
Why aren’t big dem upper echelon party folks telling Hillary to quell her McCain sounding attitude? She is basically supporting McCain’s attacks by reaffirming them on Obama. WTF? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2008, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/125 "2008-04-15T22:02:25Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Why aren’t big dem upper echelon party folks telling Hillary . . . [/QUOTE] Because neither candidate has to listen to them. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2008, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/126 "2008-04-15T22:04:48Z")
In a [delegate calculation](http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002703375), it’s estimated to be a dead heat: > [@](#): > > We at CQ Politics are pondering those too. But we look ahead to next week’s vote in Pennsylvania a bit differently: How many delegates might each candidate win in Pennsylvania, which is the most populous of the states and territories that have yet to vote? > > That answer will be mainly determined not by the sum of the votes Clinton and Obama win in Pennsylvania, but rather by the state’s parts. Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party’s national convention in Denver this August, and most of them — 103 to be exact — will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts. > > And a CQ Politics analysis of the political circumstances in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, detailed below, projects an edge to Clinton — but by just 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party’s proportional distribution rules. > > These numbers suggest that Clinton, even with a victory in Pennsylvania, would make only a small incremental gain against Obama’s overall lead in the delegate race. > > Of the state’s remaining 84 slots, only 55 pledged delegates will be distributed based on the statewide popular vote, with the state’s remaining 29 seats going to unpledged “superdelegates.” ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 15, 2008, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/127 "2008-04-15T22:38:11Z")
[QUOTE=ArchiveGuy] In a [delegate calculation](http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002703375), it’s estimated to be a dead heat: [/QUOTE] This is another scenerio we have seen played out before and before. Tt’s not necessarily the sum of the people voting for you but the districts they are voting from. And Obama has statistically done much better over time in those districts than Clinton had - Texas is the most recent example of this. This PA primary is going to be a wash…most likely. I’d love to see Obama pull a squeaker in the pop votes…but even if he doesn’t he is still far enough ahead to not sweat too much. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/128 "2008-04-16T00:20:36Z")
I think it’ll all come down to ‘getting out the vote’. I hope Hillary keeps pressing this ‘bitter’ thing. It’ll make people less interested in coming out for her. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/129 "2008-04-16T00:21:20Z")
In a strange way this recent flap may help Obama some (especially if the “arrogant intellectual” charge doesn’t stick long term). The game is expectations. Going in to voting day charging up the hill raises expectations of a possible win and certainly of a narrow loss. This lowers that expectation and yet will already be old news by voting day … increasing the possibility of a “better than expected” performance. Clinton does worse than “expected” and the pressure on her to call it a day grows … ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/130 "2008-04-16T01:41:17Z")
I don’t think even the expectations have much of an effect anymore. Look what happened after Hillary won Texas (the popular vote, anyway) and Ohio. A big splash for a day or so, then everyone looked at the numbers and said, hey, you know what - Hillary’s still way behind, with a diminishing set of opportunities to close the gap. After PA, it’ll be even more true, even if she wins by 15%. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/131 "2008-04-16T02:24:58Z")
Not really what happened **RTF**. If Obama had won the popular vote in Texas, even by 0.1%, then Hillary would have been out. There were, what 50 suoerdelegates, waiting to jump into his camp. Richardson had announced beforehand that he would throw his weight behind whoever was in the lead after that. He, and many others, held off because she exceeded expectations. By counts she was more in the hole than before. But the expectation game kept her running. ---
**Author:** ![MsRobyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/90ced4/32.png) [@MsRobyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsRobyn)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/132 "2008-04-16T10:58:22Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Who’s she endorsing? [/QUOTE] Senator Kerry is also endorsing Obama. I heard him speak at a party 'do a week and a half ago and he had some very good words for Obama. I’ll have to go back and listen to the speech again for specifics. I’ve heard some grousing about Hillary at the ground level, and the sentiment (at least among Obama supporters, so take this for what it’s worth) is that Hillary is coming across as both desperate and entitled to win, like a girl who can’t understand why she’s not going to be elected prom queen, but thinks she “deserves” to, anyway. The shrillness isn’t helping either, and that has nothing to do with her gender. Robin ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/133 "2008-04-16T12:54:16Z")
[QUOTE=MsRobyn] Senator Kerry is also endorsing Obama. I heard him speak at a party 'do a week and a half ago and he had some very good words for Obama. I’ll have to go back and listen to the speech again for specifics. I’ve heard some grousing about Hillary at the ground level, and the sentiment (at least among Obama supporters, so take this for what it’s worth) is that Hillary is coming across as both desperate and entitled to win, like a girl who can’t understand why she’s not going to be elected prom queen, but thinks she “deserves” to, anyway. The shrillness isn’t helping either, and that has nothing to do with her gender. Robin [/QUOTE] George Stephanopolos this morning noted Clinton’s national favorability rating is at an all time low as is her trustworthyness rating at it’s all time low. Obama is leaps and bounds over her in trustoworthyness and that will certainly aid him in the coming weeks. He thinks this whole thing will be over in early may, with wins in IN and NC by Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/134 "2008-04-16T17:30:02Z")
Apparently the good people of Pennsylvania are so insulted by Obama that Clinton needed to [import some outrage](http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/clintons_offended_pa_voter_not.html) 😉 > [@](#): > > Barack Obama can take some solace out of Hillary Clinton’s new television ad in Pennsylvania. At least one of her supporters featured in the spot hammering Obama for his small town comments isn’t registered to vote in Pennsylvania. > > Clyde Thomas, who sports a goatee in the ad and says, “the good people of Pennsylvania deserve a lot better than what Barack Obama said,” is actually registered in New Jersey. He voted there for Clinton Feb. 5. He only recently moved to Bethlehem, Pa. > […] > Thomas said he was born in Scranton, but has lived his entire life in Somerville, N.J. He is a 46-year-old unemployed environmental engineer. > > He said he has been volunteering for the campaign in recent weeks, handing out literature and making phone calls. He said the campaign approached him about appearing in the ad, which was filmed in Bethlehem, a city of about 72,000 residents in eastern Pennsylvania where Bethlehem Steel once stood tall. Which is all just as well since her ad is [falling flat](http://weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/clintons_bitter_ad_falling_fla.html): > [@](#): > > After being shown the ad, not many people shifted their views. When asked before and after seeing the ad who they would vote for if the election were held today, Obama’s support went to 44 percent to 45 percent, pre versus post. Meanwhile, Clinton’s support went from 43 percent to 44 percent, pre versus post. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/135 "2008-04-16T20:05:40Z")
This could be a BIG endorsement in PA… [American Hunters & Shooters Association](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/16/143436/679/387/496920) endorses Obama! Not as big as say, the NRA or Ducks Unlimited, but it’s a very good catch. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/136 "2008-04-16T20:21:30Z")
I just have to say: DAMN I’ll be glad when the Pennsylvania primary is over. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/137 "2008-04-16T20:39:59Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] This could be a BIG endorsement in PA… [American Hunters & Shooters Association](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/16/143436/679/387/496920) endorses Obama! Not as big as say, the NRA or Ducks Unlimited, but it’s a very good catch. [/QUOTE] That and Hillary’s recent “ **Screw-Em** ” article in Huffingtons - Just go to their [home](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/) site to see the front page 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/138 "2008-04-16T21:32:56Z")
[Bruce Springsteen endorses Obama.](http://brucespringsteen.net/news/index.html) Well, I guess it’s all over **now!** 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/139 "2008-04-16T22:17:32Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] [Bruce Springsteen endorses Obama.](http://brucespringsteen.net/news/index.html) Well, I guess it’s all over **now!** 😉 [/QUOTE] Obama was born to run. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2008, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056/140 "2008-04-17T20:56:53Z")
[Latest Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Deadlocked in Pennsylvania](http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsmax_poll_hillary/2008/04/16/88622.html?s=al&promo_code=4978-1) The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday’s contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows **Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%** , with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided. The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 601 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/handicapping-the-pennsylvania-primary-4-22-08/443056.md?page=8)