# Happy Fun 2010 Primary Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 18, 2010, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940 "2010-05-18T22:03:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![The\_Understander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3da27b/32.png) [@The\_Understander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Understander)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2010, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/1 "2010-05-18T22:03:16Z")
For those of you fellow [del]masochists[/del] interested political observers who haven’t gotten your RDA of bloviation (thanks for tiding us over, UK!), here’s a thread to comment on the primaries in Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania–with a sweet cherry on top called the Pennsylvania District 12 special election. Will Blanche Lincoln survive to serve her masters at BP another day? Will Arlen Specter pick a party and stick with it? And how does this, beyond the shadow of a doubt, spell the zOMG DOOOOOOOM of the Obama Administration and the Democrats? Who you got? Have at it! ---
**Author:** ![The\_Understander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3da27b/32.png) [@The\_Understander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Understander)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2010, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/2 "2010-05-18T22:40:39Z")
Looks like with about 1% in, Ron Paul’s boy is up 49-45 over Mitch McChinless’s boy. Per [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com), it’s Paul 49%, Grayson 45%. No surprise there. Let’s see what an honest-to-gosh TP’er does in the Senate, because I think the winner of this primary wins the general. ---
**Author:** ![MsRobyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/90ced4/32.png) [@MsRobyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsRobyn)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2010, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/3 "2010-05-18T22:46:21Z")
I’m in PA. The polls are closing in less than 90 minutes, and the turnout in my county was pretty light. That may be because I live in a heavily Republican district, and the Pubbies just don’t have the fireworks that the Dems have. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2010, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/4 "2010-05-18T22:53:12Z")
Polls are closed in half of Kentucky right now; they close in the other half in 30 minutes. ZERO drama in the Republican primary getting all the national attention. Rand Paul is going to spank Trey Greyson; I’m predicting 55-43. This will be talked up endlessly as an important bellwether of something or other. The more interesting race is on the Dem side between Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo. Conway is a Louisville lawyer and the current Attorney General; Mongiardo is an ENT surgeon from here in the hills and the current Lt. Governor. Conway is a great candidate who ran a lousy campaign; Mongiardo is the opposite. The polls have it too close to call. I think Conway will take it 49-47 thanks to big mayoral races in his strongholds of Lexington and Louisville. I hope Conway takes it, because I think he can beat Rand Paul and Mongiardo can’t. ---
**Author:** ![Fozz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Fozz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fozz)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2010, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/5 "2010-05-18T23:11:06Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > Polls are closed in half of Kentucky right now; they close in the other half in 30 minutes. > > ZERO drama in the Republican primary getting all the national attention. Rand Paul is going to spank Trey Greyson; I’m predicting 55-43. This will be talked up endlessly as an important bellwether of something or other. > > The more interesting race is on the Dem side between Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo. Conway is a Louisville lawyer and the current Attorney General; Mongiardo is an ENT surgeon from here in the hills and the current Lt. Governor. Conway is a great candidate who ran a lousy campaign; Mongiardo is the opposite. The polls have it too close to call. I think Conway will take it 49-47 thanks to big mayoral races in his strongholds of Lexington and Louisville. > > I hope Conway takes it, because I think he can beat Rand Paul and Mongiardo can’t. I also hope Conway wins, because it will make the general more interesting. I think Mongiardo stands a better chance than Conway of beating Rand because Mongiardo is a centrist, like most KY Dems, while Conway is a pro-Obama liberal Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Understander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3da27b/32.png) [@The\_Understander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Understander)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2010, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/6 "2010-05-18T23:36:39Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > Polls are closed in half of Kentucky right now; they close in the other half in 30 minutes. > > ZERO drama in the Republican primary getting all the national attention. Rand Paul is going to spank Trey Greyson; I’m predicting 55-43. This will be talked up endlessly as an important bellwether of something or other. > > The more interesting race is on the Dem side between Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo. Conway is a Louisville lawyer and the current Attorney General; Mongiardo is an ENT surgeon from here in the hills and the current Lt. Governor. Conway is a great candidate who ran a lousy campaign; Mongiardo is the opposite. The polls have it too close to call. I think Conway will take it 49-47 thanks to big mayoral races in his strongholds of Lexington and Louisville. > > I hope Conway takes it, because I think he can beat Rand Paul and Mongiardo can’t. I hope you’re right about Conway, he seems a decent guy. Don’t care for the carbon sequestration fairy tale but I suppose in a coal-rich state you’re gonna want to have that as a part of your platform. And maybe it’s possible, some day. I just can’t get over the Enthusiasm Gap / '94 Redux narrative that is being framed for us the media at large, and since we Americans are such dutiful script-followers, I’m reluctantly putting my money on Rand. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/7 "2010-05-19T01:00:19Z")
> [@Fozz](#): > > I also hope Conway wins, because it will make the general more interesting. I think Mongiardo stands a better chance than Conway of beating Rand because Mongiardo is a centrist, like most KY Dems, while Conway is a pro-Obama liberal Democrat. Conway is a solid Democrat, but not exactly a screaming leftist. In particular, he’s against cap-and-trade. Conway can draw national attention and money and local enthusiasm in a way that a blue dog like Mongiardo just can’t. That enthusiasm is going to have to be there to counter Rand Paul and the army of Paulbots. Besides, Mongiardo is kind of a jackass (and I’m on a first-name basis with him). He has the same problem Rudy Giuliani had–the more people know about him, the less they like him. I know ardent “Friends of Coal” types who find his aggressive fellatio of the coal companies off-putting. I think Rand Paul would crush him. Fortunately, Conway appears to be winning. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/8 "2010-05-19T01:19:31Z")
Paul is the projected winner: “Paul was leading with 59 percent of the vote to Grayson’s 37 percent.” No call yet on Mongiardo vs Conway ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/9 "2010-05-19T01:57:26Z")
PA-SEN With a little over 1/3 of precincts reporting, [Sestak leads Specter 51.1% to 48.9%](http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2010/PA). Sounds pretty close, but up to about half an hour ago, Specter was leading Sestak. The rural counties are posting some huge margins for Sestak: Elk, 60.1 Sestak - 39.9 Specter; Lancaster 63.6 Sestak - 36.4 Specter; Lycoming 60.3 Sestak - 39.7 Specter. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Understander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3da27b/32.png) [@The\_Understander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Understander)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/10 "2010-05-19T02:12:17Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > PA-SEN > > With a little over 1/3 of precincts reporting, [Sestak leads Specter 51.1% to 48.9%](http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2010/PA). Sounds pretty close, but up to about half an hour ago, Specter was leading Sestak. The rural counties are posting some huge margins for Sestak: Elk, 60.1 Sestak - 39.9 Specter; Lancaster 63.6 Sestak - 36.4 Specter; Lycoming 60.3 Sestak - 39.7 Specter. 61% reporting now Sestak 52%, Specter 48% Yes! ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/11 "2010-05-19T02:23:11Z")
Sestak is the projected winner. ---
**Author:** ![Fozz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Fozz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fozz)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/12 "2010-05-19T02:24:12Z")
Looks like Conway will be the Democrat nominee in Kentucky. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/13 "2010-05-19T02:27:03Z")
According to TPM, Conway’s up by 7000 with 98% of the vote in, and has been projected the winner. And in PA, Sestak over Snarlin’ Arlen. With only 11% of the vote in in Arkansas, Lincoln’s running 9% ahead of Halter, but under 50%. If she doesn’t clear 50%, Halter has another 3 weeks to make his case to the voters. In PA-12, Murtha’s old seat, the Dem is running ahead by 11%, but with 39% of the vote in, the key thing is what parts of the county are still outstanding. One would need local knowledge to call this one, I expect. Anyhow, the night’s off to a good start, and it’s got prospects of looking even better by morning. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/14 "2010-05-19T02:33:45Z")
Specter just conceded. It’s Sestak vs. Toomey! ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/15 "2010-05-19T02:35:56Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > In PA-12, Murtha’s old seat, the Dem is running ahead by 11%, but with 39% of the vote in, the key thing is what parts of the county are still outstanding. One would need local knowledge to call this one, I expect. Very local, I think. I was born and grew up in Altoona, just 40 miles or so from that district, and I honestly have no real idea. It’s a traditionally Dem stronghold because of labor, but I don’t know how the candidates stack up. Hell, I didn’t even know who the candidates were until tonight. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Understander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3da27b/32.png) [@The\_Understander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Understander)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/16 "2010-05-19T02:51:05Z")
Mark Critz defeats Tim Burns in the PA-12 special election. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/17 "2010-05-19T03:00:24Z")
> [@Enfant Terrible](#): > > Mark Critz defeats Tim Burns in the PA-12 special election. [Republicans concede in PA-12](http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2010/05/18/2322091.aspx) > [@](#): > > With Critz’s apparent victory, this becomes the SEVENTH-straight competitive special House contest that Democrats have won and the GOP has lost since 2008. The press can’t resist adding some cosmically significant doom and gloom to the story: > [@](#): > > if Republicans lose this contest, it could be a potentially ominous sign for Republicans in their quest to retake the House. ---
**Author:** ![flickster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7bcc69/32.png) [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/18 "2010-05-19T03:04:30Z")
Adios, Specter…Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![The\_Understander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3da27b/32.png) [@The\_Understander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Understander)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/19 "2010-05-19T03:07:19Z")
> [@flickster](#): > > Adios, Specter…Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out 🆒 I just had a terrible, terrible thought. Lieberman, Pennsylvania edition. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2010, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940/20 "2010-05-19T03:10:48Z")
> [@Enfant Terrible](#): > > I just had a terrible, terrible thought. > > Lieberman, Pennsylvania edition. :eek: We have a Sore Loser law. He can’t run as an independent now. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/happy-fun-2010-primary-thread/539940.md?page=2)