# Hard to believe there isn't a shortage of rare earth metals. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 15, 2009, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315 "2009-12-15T04:09:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2009, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/1 "2009-12-15T04:09:56Z")
Give me your naysayers and your nattering nabobs of negativism! Think the rare earth metals are bursting from every seam and fold? Tell me about it! ISTM our nation is coming up short in the supply of rare earth metals. Should something be done? Or am I just wrong? Some points to consider. From [this link](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoidas_Lake): > [@](#): > > dysprosium is used in the manufacture of hybrid car components[4] and some are suggesting an impending shortage of the metal.[5] Or this link: [Dysprosium: Achilles’ heel of Hybrid, EV, and Wind Turbine Design](http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/05/dysprosium-achilles-heel-hybrid-ev-wind-turbine.php): > [@](#): > > China produces 95% of the worlds supply of the rare earth metal, dysprosium, a key metal in magnets used in the drive motors for hybrid electric vehicles - up to 100 grams of dysprosium per hybrid car produced, according to a Wikipedia reference. Dysprosium’s magnetic properties also make it an important metal for wind turbines and electric vehicles. Could be vital for MagLev trains, too. > [@](#): > > “The crux of the matter is that there are now a lot of technologies that can’t work without rare earths, and China is currently in effective control of the global supply. China has positioned itself to retain control, and meanwhile politicians around the world do not appreciate how the supply side of green technology works.” Do the petro-companies want us to think green tech is not achievable? Or is this a genuine practical obstacle to green tech? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2009, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/2 "2009-12-15T13:35:27Z")
A different [recent discussion about this subject.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=538856) There isn’t an actual shortage of what is in the ground but currently available sources that are able to get it out (and current means for the next ten years or so anyway) are to a large degree controlled by China. It will merely be another reason that many of these industries will locate their manufacturing facilities in China and that the Chinese companies making these products (batteries, turbines, etc.) will have a significant competitive advantage. At least during the next decade. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2009, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/3 "2009-12-18T04:21:48Z")
Thanks for the link 🙂 Maybe this thread could use a punchline, so, from [a link to the Greek meaning of the word Dysprosium](http://qanda.encyclopedia.com/question/does-dysprosium-mean-greek-144840.html): > [@](#): > > dysprosium [Gr.,=hard to get at] ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2009, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/4 "2009-12-18T04:59:31Z")
Rare, as you know it, ain’t necessarily “rare.” I’d be satisfied owning the share of Unobtainium available worldwide to my predecessors. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2009, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/5 "2009-12-19T05:37:44Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > Rare, as you know it, ain’t necessarily “rare.” I’d be satisfied owning the share of Unobtainium available worldwide to my predecessors. That’s not very nice. I know for a fact that very rare metals are a physical reality. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2009, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/6 "2009-12-19T14:59:12Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > A different [recent discussion about this subject.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=538856) > > There isn’t an actual shortage of what is in the ground but currently available sources that are able to get it out (and current means for the next ten years or so anyway) are to a large degree controlled by China. It will merely be another reason that many of these industries will locate their manufacturing facilities in China and that the Chinese companies making these products (batteries, turbines, etc.) will have a significant competitive advantage. At least during the next decade. I heard that China wants to eliminate the export of these materials. Maybe that means just what you describe though. They want to eliminate the export of the ore, but they’ll export the gear made with it. If so, that’ll lead to a pretty serious monopoly. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2009, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/7 "2009-12-19T15:01:08Z")
Bah, POS warfare. Let’s hope that the Chinese are bad at setting their strontium timers. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 19, 2009, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/8 "2009-12-19T16:14:09Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Bah, POS warfare. Let’s hope that the Chinese are bad at setting their strontium timers. If Operation Unholy Nerd Rage tells us anything, it’s that the Chinese were pretty damn good at setting their strontium timers. ---
**Author:** ![antechinus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/fbc32d/32.png) [@antechinus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/antechinus)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2009, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/9 "2009-12-20T11:57:52Z")
More on Chinas control of what German researchers call Gerwurzmetall - spice metals - on [Background Briefing](http://www.abc.net.au/rn/backgroundbriefing/stories/2009/2738774.htm). ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2009, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/10 "2009-12-20T17:16:19Z")
Is silver a Gerwurzmetall? After all, it can turn your skin blue. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/11 "2009-12-20T17:53:41Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Is silver a Gerwurzmetall? After all, it can turn your skin blue. Obviously not, because you can procure silver pretty easily. I think it’s mainly the lanthanides, down in the list at the bottom of the periodic table. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2009, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/12 "2009-12-20T22:03:50Z")
…the spice metal must flow? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2009, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/13 "2009-12-20T22:33:32Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > …the spice metal must flow? It must. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 20, 2009, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/14 "2009-12-20T22:43:36Z")
Here’s a rather exhaustive explanation of what’s going on with Rare Earths. It’s long, but it pretty much touches on the entire thing. [http://seekingalpha.com/article/178225-on-the-rare-earth-crisis-of-2009](http://seekingalpha.com/article/178225-on-the-rare-earth-crisis-of-2009) > [@](#): > > I’ve been watching the current stock market small investor interest boomlet in the rare earth elements, REEs, since it began late this last summer (2009). For small investors I think that the first wave of the “rare earth publicly traded share price rush” was triggered by an article by James Dines in his popular subscription newsletter. There he predicted that due to rapidly rising public awareness of their strategic and critical nature, a rare earth investing rush, mimicking the one he correctly predicted many years ago for uranium mining under similar circumstances of rising public awareness, was about to get underway. > > It didn’t hurt the octogenarian Dines’ prediction thesis at all when the news media, shortly thereafter, caught wind of a supposed Chinese pronouncement that would impact the future security of the supply of rare earths. This pronouncement, said to be an internal memo solicited by China’s Ruling State Council on the future supply and demand of rare earths in and by Chinese industry during the next “five year plan” cycle, 2010-2015, had first actually been noted in April, 2009. The Chinese, it was said, in a press release by the listed Australian miner, Arafura Resources, [ASX:ARU], were officially considering a continuation of the reduction in their export allocations of rare earths (the reduction of which they have been carrying out for the last 5 years), and (drumroll, please) it was said that they were contemplating an “immediate” cessation of the export of the so-called heavy rare earths (first four notes of Beethoven’s Fifth Symphony, please). > > Although there are no “official” comparative production statistics for the rare earths, which are not traded on any exchange, it is believed by everyone who comments on this topic that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) today produces more than 95% of the entire world’s annual new supply of the rare earths. It is certain that the PRC today produces 100% of the world’s annual production of the very rare so-called “heavy” rare earths, dysprosium, terbium, and europium. These high atomic numbered rare earth elements - referred to as the “heavies”- are critical either for raising the operating temperature at which rare earth based magnets can perform efficiently, or for producing a red cathodolumenescent phosphors for color displays. “Critical” here means that without these rarest of the rare earths the functions they create cannot be performed. There are no substitutes for them. > > There is, and has been continuously, since the mid-twentieth century some mining of rare earths in Russia, India, and, perhaps, Maylaysia, and there has been since 2007 a small amount of large scale processing of previously produced REE concentrates (70%) in Mountain Pass, California by MolyCorp. The Mountain Pass production is as of this writing 6 tons a day, apportioned between lanthanum [oxide], 4 tons a day, and didymium [80% neodymium mixed with 20% praseodymium] oxide, 2 tons a day. MolyCorp, at Mountain Pass, although it is a producer of rare earth oxides [REOs] is not currently mining or concentrating ore; it is working off concentrates last produced in 2002. I am using the convoluted term “small amount of large scale processing,” because I am certain that no one else outside of China is producing anywhere near the volume of REOs, daily, that Mountain Pass is. > > MolyCorp is most likely producing between 40% and 67% of all of the REOs produced outside of China in a vertically integrated operation. It is important here to note that the Mountain Pass ore body was the site during the 1980s of the largest individual rare earth production level ever achieved in one mine. The open pit operation reached a level of 20,000 tons a year of REEs. The ore body that was mined at Mountain Pass is immense; it is an indicated (verified) resource of at least 30,000,000 tons of 9.6% average grade, with a cutoff grade of 7.6%, bastnaesite. > > The reason that Mountain Pass was put on care and maintenance (i.e., shut down) in 2002 was not due to the exhaustion of high grade ore or the loss of access to such ore. The reason was simply that Chinese production out of the Bayanobo region of Inner Mongolia had by 2002 become priced so much lower than that at Mountain Pass that MolyCorp could only continue mining by subsidizing the cost, which it chose not to do since the trend was clearly for even higher Chinese production and lower pricing. It was not then and it is not now clear whether or not Chinese production costs could justify the selling prices of Chinese REEs. But there may well be subsidies available to Chinese miners from the state in order to maintain employment in Inner Mongolia that are not solely based on the world market prices for the products of the mines as they would be in the free market oriented West. > > Whether the current Chinese monopoly in rare earth production was planned as a strategy fueled by predatory (lowball) pricing or simply happened as a consequence of adhering to a larger national plan to create employment and drive manufacturing dependent on a secure supply of the rare earths to China is only an important consideration outside of China. Because as of this moment China is still exporting enough refined rare earths such as metals, alloys, and fabricated products to keep the world market for these products going. > > The problem that has been exposed by the “discovery” of the memorandum on rare earth export allocations is that it proves the conjecture highlighted by well-known Australian rare earth specialist, Dudley Kingsnorth, that Chinese domestic demand for rare earths is rapidly catching up to Chinese supply output. Mr. Kingsnorth has predicted that before the expiration of China’s next five year plan in 2015 Chinese domestic demand will exceed its domestic production. > > Assuming Mr. Kingsnorth’s prediction to be correct, and I do, this means that at some point in the next five years it will not be possible to manufacture rare earth based products outside of China unless and until 1. There are rare earths produced outside of China; 2. Those rare earths can be refined and processed into useful forms outside of China, and 3. Chinese domestic consumers have not preemptively gained control over the non-Chinese production of the rare earths in order to secure their own supplies for domestic manufacturing and marketing within China. > > What the recent hubbub over Chinese rare earth export allocations has exposed is that a deadline is rapidly approaching after which the production and use of the rare earths will pass by default to the absolute control of the PRC. Here’s a snippett. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2009, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/15 "2009-12-22T05:27:10Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > Here’s a rather exhaustive explanation of what’s going on with Rare Earths. It’s long, but it pretty much touches on the entire thing. > > [All Analysis Articles | Seeking Alpha](http://seekingalpha.com/article/178225-on-the-rare-earth-crisis-of-2009) > > Here’s a snippett. Great link. So… basically, the Chinese dominate this resource in the short term, so it is a free-market orgasm for them. Medium to long term the balance reverts to globalism, and everybody benefits from the big party. For example, deposits of dysprosium will surely be found outside of China, disproving the 100% monopoly claim of a quoted article. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2009, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/16 "2009-12-22T05:38:03Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Great link. So… basically, the Chinese dominate this resource in the short term, so it is a free-market orgasm for them. Medium to long term the balance reverts to globalism, and everybody benefits from the big party. > > For example, deposits of dysprosium will surely be found outside of China, disproving the 100% monopoly claim of a quoted article. No, that’s not how I read it. China artificially deflates the prices by subsidizing production for a decade in order to put foreign mines out of business. Specifically America and Australia who are two of the largest producers after China. Then when the market market outside of the PRC has been decimated, the PRC stops subsidizing it and diverts all production to China’s electronics industry, so that China can dominate the industry for these items. However, China’s internal demand for some of these products makes export less feasible, thus the export prices are driven even higher so that China profits mightily off of the small bit of the market that does make it to export. As a large proportion of the electronics manufacturing industry is already in China or other Chinese countries such as Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong etc… They can completely eliminate the export of the raw materials to other nations not in the ‘Sinosphere’ so to speak. Making the rest of the world dependent upon China for the purchase of consumer electronics and high-powered magnets that are in everything from your Prius, to the windmill on the ridge to the tips of deep-core mining drills. So really, the Rare Earth industry is a de facto monopoly centralized in China, the Electronics industry in the rest of the world is screwed, and China profits. Likely they’ll invest in the foreign mines like the one owned by MolyCorp in California. In short, they take a short term loss in order to fuck up Western industry. Rare Earths are already found outside China, it’s that it’s not profitable to extract them because it’s cheaper to buy from China, for now. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2009, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/17 "2009-12-22T05:52:37Z")
Yah so China is a major player. That’s pretty predictable. It isn’t as if other players in the rare earths aren’t possible. I suppose it might take some entrepreneurial action on the part of western powers to assert themselves in green tech. Maybe it just happens to be my job to learn ya’all how to do it. Start here: How many tons does industry need? ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2009, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/18 "2009-12-22T06:32:19Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Yah so China is a major player. That’s pretty predictable. It isn’t as if other players in the rare earths aren’t possible. Well as the article points out the US used to be the biggest player, but that the largest producer in the world outside of China, MolyCorp shuttered their mine in California in due to its inability to compete with Chinese subsidies. > [@](#): > > I suppose it might take some entrepreneurial action on the part of western powers to assert themselves in green tech. Maybe it just happens to be my job to learn ya’all how to do it. It takes time to ramp up production. Someone else on another forum where I am discussing this topic tells me that there are some projects to ramp up refinery production here in the states. I’m waiting to see if he’s got some cites for that. > [@](#): > > Start here: How many tons does industry need? Well the total world production seems pretty low. I’ll have to look back into the article. But the point isn’t so much how much it needs at current capacity, but the fact that these materials are necessary now in a way they never were before due to technologies that have only existed for the past couple of decades. Windmills, Hybrid Cars, etc… ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2009, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/19 "2009-12-22T06:33:07Z")
It turns out in the real world that the strategy of selling things for years at below cost to drive out your competitors, then jacking prices up once you’ve got a monopoly, never works. Sure, you drive out your competitors, after losing money hand over fist selling below cost. But when you try to profit on your monopoly, something always fucks it up. Maybe government gets involved and smashes your beautiful monopoly. Or you start to jack up prices, and suddenly competitors start appearing by magic. Or you jack up prices, and somehow people manage to do without your supposedly irreplaceable product. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [December 22, 2009, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315/20 "2009-12-22T06:35:24Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > It turns out in the real world that the strategy of selling things for years at below cost to drive out your competitors, then jacking prices up once you’ve got a monopoly, never works. Sure, you drive out your competitors, after losing money hand over fist selling below cost. But when you try to profit on your monopoly, something always fucks it up. Maybe government gets involved and smashes your beautiful monopoly. Or you start to jack up prices, and suddenly competitors start appearing by magic. Or you jack up prices, and somehow people manage to do without your supposedly irreplaceable product. In this case it was the Chinese government that subsidized the selling at below cost. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hard-to-believe-there-isnt-a-shortage-of-rare-earth-metals/521315.md?page=2)