# Harry Potter Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 25, 2010, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429 "2010-06-25T01:13:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/301 "2010-07-05T19:25:10Z")
\*\*Vote Count: Red Skeezix(4): Rysto, ShadowFacts, Chipacabra, OnandOnly Pedescribe(2): JimmyChitwood, Red Skeezix Rysto(1): Pedescribe\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/302 "2010-07-05T19:27:49Z")
Well, most of those kids are ostensibly on my team, so **unvote pedescribe** **vote Red Skeezix** Man, this game has some really interesting stuff in it, too, and it’s mostly going to waste. ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/303 "2010-07-05T19:49:01Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > I’ve been assuming that must be the case as well, because of: I must have read that color 5 times and never once noticed that, thanks. > [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > I’m a pfk, kind of a serial killer/lyncher type. So lynch away OK, no need to re-review the scenarios after all. **Vote Red Skeezix** ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/304 "2010-07-05T19:52:40Z")
Huh. First of all, all the “no one’s playing the game” people should probably dial it back about three notches. It’s been a little quieter than usual, but there’s already been activity for Day Two and the Town caught Scum on Day One and it’s still more than forty-eight hours until the D2 deadline. We’ll get there. I mean, seriously, **pedescribe** , you haven’t participated barely at all and you’re criticizing the rest of the group for being “sheep-like?” I’ll bet that at least one of the “sky is falling, no one is playing” folks are Scum; in my experience, it’s the Scum who get frustrated when the game starts to idle even a little bit, because they’re _Scum_ and they’re excited to _play_, but if the Townies are quiet they themselves can’t say too much for fear of overexposure. So a general wave of suspicion on the “no one is playing” gang. So, **skeezix**. First of all, skeez, do you _ever_ get a plain Town role? I don’t think I’ve ever played with you as Town. Second, this claim demands some discussion. Question 1: 1. How confident are we that skeez is telling the truth? My guess is, fairly confident. Would Scum false-claim an exclusive-win, serial killer role? Why? Thoughts? ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/305 "2010-07-05T20:03:32Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > OK, no need to re-review the scenarios after all. I think I disagree. This revelation, if it turns out to be true, requires us to re-review the scenarios because it has implications for Chipacabra among others. Skeezix may not be Town, but unless he is lying he “counts” as Town for the purposes of analyzing behavior (he presumably doesn’t know who is Scum, and the Scum presumably didn’t have any reason to treat him differently than any other Townie). Consider ShadowFacts analysis of the situation, quoted below: > [@](#): > > _1. Assumption: Red Skeezix is scum and Chipa is Town - Omi sees that there’s only 24 hours left and wants to get a wagon rolling on Chipa to take the heat off Red. This is what Rysto is suggesting above. The conditionals in Omi’s post (e.g. “Red seems scummy, BUT…”) serve to insulate him a bit from blame if/when Chipa comes up Town. I find this to be a plausible scenario._ > > 1. Assumption: Red Skeezix is [Non-Scum] and Chipa is Town - Omi wins either way here, and picks one to get a wagon rolling on. The conditionals in this case could be a way to set up Red for a Day Two lynch. For example, when Chipa comes up Town, Omi says, “Crap, I got that wrong, but that means I was probably right about Red, since he was riding Omi so hard, etc.” In other words, by suggesting that they are both scummy, he sets up town vs. town for two days. I find this to be plausible as well, though I wonder why Omi would go out on a limb with the “Red is scummier, but Chipa is more annoying” choice, which was clearly more dangerous. > > _3. Assumption: Red Skeezix is Scum and Chipa is Scum. Omi’s vote makes no sense in this scenario. He would have voted for someone else entirely - with so many other votes still to come, there was no danger in choosing a different target. I find this to be totally implausible._ > > 1. Assumption: Red Skeezix is [Non-Scum] and Chipa is Scum. I suppose Omi could have suspected that Chipa was doomed and decided to bus him early, but on Day One with so few votes out, I don’t regard this as very likely at all. Not very plausible. > > Conclusions: > By far the two most plausible scenarios have Chipacabra as Town. I am personally putting Chipa on my “Likely Town” list. > If either Chipa or Red are scum, the other is 99% likely NOT to be scum. > I find #1 above more plausible than #2 above. #2 would indicate a subtlety and long-term thinking that, in hindsight, Omi clearly did not demonstrate. Shadow, I have italicized the two scenarios that turn out to be false (provided skeezix is telling the truth), and substituted “Non-Scum” for “Town” in the other two. How do you feel about assumptions 2 vs. 4 now? Also: **vote redskeezix** Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether he’s likely to be lying; he certainly _could_ be lying, and he’ll have to die eventually even if he’s not, so why not now? I do think the construction of his bandwagon will be of interest on future Days, though. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/306 "2010-07-05T20:04:23Z")
Frankly it reads to me like a player who’s feeling frustrated with the game and has decided if he has to go out then he’s going to go out with a lot of noise. With that said, I can’t imagine why a town player would false claim that role so he’s either scum or 3rd party. So he’s either lying, in which case we lynch him for lying or he’s telling the truth, in which case we lynch him for being anti-town. **Vote Red Skeezix** Pedescribe’s behavior confuses me. It doesn’t seem very town friendly and he’s played a lot of games and should know better but on the other other hand, it’s pedescribe and when has he not tried to be funky and fresh like that? ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/307 "2010-07-05T20:05:11Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > 1. How confident are we that skeez is telling the truth? My guess is, fairly confident. Would Scum false-claim an exclusive-win, serial killer role? Why? I just checked wikipedia and it says: “Fenrir Greyback Fenrir Greyback is a werewolf aligned with the Death Eaters but does not rank highly enough to carry the Dark Mark . He is known as the most savage werewolf ever to live and is greatly feared throughout the wizarding world, even by his natural allies. […]is known for targeting young children.” so it is likely he’s a scum claiming 3rd party. Why? No real idea. Somehow to protect or draw attention away from his buddies. What do you think? ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/308 "2010-07-05T20:10:34Z")
I’m pretty doubtful that he possibly could have gotten his killed blocked two Nights running. I suppose that there could be a roleblocker out there who could have been thinking similarly to me and blocked him. Anyway, Skeezix is either an SK or scum. His win condition is unknown – don’t make the mistake of assuming that he’s telling the truth about his win condition. From a colour standpoint his claim fits and his claim, if true, would suggest that any Hogwarts students that he did not mention(in particular, Ginny Weasley) are not in this game. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/309 "2010-07-05T20:11:14Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > I just checked wikipedia and it says: “Fenrir Greyback Fenrir Greyback is a werewolf aligned with the Death Eaters but does not rank highly enough to carry the Dark Mark . He is known as the most savage werewolf ever to live and is greatly feared throughout the wizarding world, even by his natural allies. […]is known for targeting young children.” so it is likely he’s a scum claiming 3rd party. Why? No real idea. Somehow to protect or draw attention away from his buddies. What do you think? I think that’s an awfully odd thing to say, but I’m sure we’ll find out when Red flips after the lynch. I inherently refuse to believe that names are going to be meaningful in any closed colored game, because keeping the names meaningful makes the game somewhat more likely to be breakable with a mass claim. Your saving grace is I can’t imagine any scum motivation for theorizing that he’s a scum claiming third party. Nor is there a town motivaiton–it’s not as though his scum or PFK status is going to be a mystery after the lynch, so at most he bought someone one extra day alive even if he is scum. **vote Red Skeezix**. What a boring, boring vote, but there’s no possible pro-town reason to leave him alive. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/310 "2010-07-05T20:11:18Z")
Also, and maybe I’m overly paranoid to be bringing this up but is there any reason to believe that he could be a bomb? I know jesters are generally considered bad play on the part of the moderator. Is there any such consensus on bombs? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/311 "2010-07-05T20:15:50Z")
\*\*Vote Count: Red Skeezix(9): Rysto, ShadowFacts, Chipacabra, OnandOnly, JimmyChitwood, Guiri, Storyteller, InnerStickler, Zeriel Pedescribe(1): Red Skeezix Rysto(1): Pedescribe \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/312 "2010-07-05T20:19:45Z")
[Fluff, feel free to ignore] > [@storyteller0910](#): > > So, **skeezix**. First of all, skeez, do you _ever_ get a plain Town role? I don’t think I’ve ever played with you as Town. We were both vanilla town in colorless mafia. I was also vanilla town in the House M.D. game (and I had to request that, [random.org](http://random.org) would have given me the town doc role). All the other times that I was town I was town power. This will be the third time that I’ve gotten the “weird” role. I was really hoping for a town role in this one. But you can wish in one hand and shit in the other… [/fluff] ---
**Author:** ![Chipacabra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e19b73/32.png) [@Chipacabra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chipacabra)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2010, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/313 "2010-07-05T20:36:27Z")
Another 3rd party? Interesting. I think I had some preconceptions about this game’s structure that were way off. Red’s claim is… plausible. I don’t know that I entirely buy it, but I’m also not sure what the point of a false claim would be. But either way I’m sticking with my vote. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2010, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/314 "2010-07-06T01:28:37Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Shadow, I have italicized the two scenarios that turn out to be false (provided skeezix is telling the truth), and substituted “Non-Scum” for “Town” in the other two. How do you feel about assumptions 2 vs. 4 now? I’m not seeing any difference in those two assumptions if **Red** really is a 3rd party. From **Scum-Omi’s** point of view, Town is exactly the same as 3rd Party on Day One. Unless Scum have daytime investigative powers (which I find highly improbable), a 3rd party **Red Skeezix** would just be “non-scum” to **Omi**. Unless I’m really missing something in my post-dinner food coma, I don’t know why there would be any change in those two assumptions. I still find #2 far more plausible than #4. If **Red** flips 3rd party, though, I probably need to revisit the other conclusions I made, since I did not include 3rd party possibilities. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2010, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/315 "2010-07-06T04:12:26Z")
> [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > So onto the part, you’ve all been waiting for, my role! > > I’m a pfk, kind of a serial killer/lyncher type. So lynch away, and I’ll eat my hat for disagreeing with sachertorte at the end of Random Mafia. > [@storyteller0910](#): > > Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether he’s likely to be lying; he certainly _could_ be lying, and he’ll have to die eventually even if he’s not, **so why not now?** Snipped on both, bolding in second mine. \*\* Bomb?\*\* I don’t know, this game seems to spoon-fed to me. Then again, I was going to look at Shadow’s Defense of Omi back at [219](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=12638628&postcount=219), to start things off for Day 2. Next thing I know, its Day 3, and I’m half a day (Real World) behind everyone, because I figured we would start up again on Tuesday the 6th. Was Day 3 start Embiggened? It’s obvious there is a wagon on Skeezix. Given that I would classify this game as more advanced [The entire I can chose my Win-Con (Snape) mechanic, the “Morph” color] can we rule out a Bomb? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2010, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/316 "2010-07-06T04:14:54Z")
> [@Inner\_Stickler](#): > > Also, and maybe I’m overly paranoid to be bringing this up but is there any reason to believe that he could be a bomb? I know jesters are generally considered bad play on the part of the moderator. Is there any such consensus on bombs? Well, I guess Inner knows my stance on this, as well as everyone else. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2010, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/317 "2010-07-06T04:15:30Z")
How would classifying it as more advanced mean we could rule out a bomb? If anything, the more advanced the game, the more likely the esoteric roles are. ---
**Author:** ![Inner\_Stickler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/inner_stickler/32/318_2.png) [@Inner\_Stickler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inner_Stickler)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2010, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/318 "2010-07-06T04:17:37Z")
> [@Meeko](#): > > Well, I guess Inner knows my stance on this, as well as everyone else. My memory isn’t what it used to be. When you say stance are you referring to the previous post where you seem to feel we can eliminate the possibility, or do you mean you think they’re a cheap ploy, or a valid danger or what? I’d rather we not assume that everyone is on the same page. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2010, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/319 "2010-07-06T04:33:19Z")
Well, I say the same as I always do: exclusive-win Jesters and bombs to me indicate gastardry in a closed setup, so I don’t acknowledge their possibility. ---
**Author:** ![One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/838e76/32.png) [@One\_And\_Only\_Wanderers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/One_And_Only_Wanderers)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2010, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429/320 "2010-07-06T07:43:07Z")
He either is an SK as he has claimed, or he is a scum claimin g SK hoping that town would keep him alive on a “you target who we say basis”. Either way I am happy with my vote where it is. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/harry-potter-mafia/544429.md?page=17)