# Has a political realignment already taken place? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 5, 2017, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588 "2017-09-05T20:00:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Reddy\_Mercury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@Reddy\_Mercury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reddy_Mercury)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2017, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/61 "2017-09-05T21:56:18Z")
The 1980s were more economics than identity. The 1970s, 1990s, and 2010s have been all decades defined by culture wars rather than economic concerns. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2017, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/62 "2017-09-05T21:56:26Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But I’d dispute that the right has any claim on pro-Christianity. If what you mean is that the political right isn’t “Christian” in its conduct or beliefs, maybe. But there’s no doubt that the political right wins the Christian vote to a much greater extent than the political left does, and has done so for decades. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2017, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/63 "2017-09-05T21:57:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But isn’t that a realignment? Identity was not nearly as big a predictor of voting behavior in the Reagan/Bush era. Latinos were much more competitive, young people were much more competitive, Asians much more competitive. African-Americans still went 90% Dem, but it seems like everyone else was up for grabs. The Reagan/Bush era also began a trend towards the parties becoming much more ideologically distinct. But that’s a rare condition in our political history, so maybe we’re just seeing a snap back to normal, with parties mainly being divided among ethnic, regional, and religious lines. Maybe a little bit – but I think it was more that, aside from black voters, relatively few Americans cared about white supremacism (and related bigotries) beyond the visible and worst aspects (slavery, lynchings, segregation, Jim Crow) until pretty recently. But maybe that’s still somewhat of a realignment. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2017, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/64 "2017-09-05T22:06:43Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > I think it’s because expecting delusional people to behave rationally is a lost cause. Invisible sky pixie believers are apt to believe anything. [83% of black Americans identify as Christians,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Black_America#Religious_demographics) and the black vote goes overwhelmingly Democratic, so do they fall under the category of “invisible sky pixie believers?” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2017, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/65 "2017-09-05T22:12:15Z")
Blackish had a nice little snippet about that: Dre’s mother, “Homosexuality is a sin before God! Evolution is a lie! Abortion is murder! I vote Democrat!”(not an exact quote, haven’t seen it in a few months, but that’s the gist) But for how long will that state of affairs persist? Some African-Americans went for Trump over immigration too. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2017, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/66 "2017-09-05T22:17:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But for how long will that state of affairs persist? Some African-Americans went for Trump over immigration too. Based on his defense of the Charlottesville white supremacists, and based on the abysmally low polling for Trump among African Americans, I don’t think this particular thing is changing any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![Reddy\_Mercury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/43a26b/32.png) [@Reddy\_Mercury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reddy_Mercury)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2017, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/67 "2017-09-05T22:34:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Based on his defense of the Charlottesville white supremacists, and based on the abysmally low polling for Trump among African Americans, I don’t think this particular thing is changing any time soon. No, but if the Democrats continue to be party of Clinton (metaphorically), African-Americans will just stay home more and more. Let’s be honest: The Democrats haven’t done much for the African American community since LBJ. Bill Clinton paid lip service, but also promoted polices which ended up hurting African Americans (breaking welfare, “tough on crime” police policies, helped the for-profit prison industry), and he also used a softer version of the Southern Strategy (Sistah Souljah) to win over right-wingers and portions of the South. Even Obama didn’t do all that much, all things considered. White middle-of-the-road Liberals will excite African Americans less and less as time goes by. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/68 "2017-09-06T00:03:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Apparently, the common man is supposed to make all the sacrifices. Just to be clear, here and elsewhere when you refer to the common man, you are really referring to the common white Judeo-Christian man. As opposed to those “elite” inner city blacks on welfare. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/69 "2017-09-06T05:49:27Z")
> [@Reddy\_Mercury](#): > > No, but if the Democrats continue to be party of Clinton (metaphorically), African-Americans will just stay home more and more. Let’s be honest: The Democrats haven’t done much for the African American community since LBJ. Bill Clinton paid lip service, but also promoted polices which ended up hurting African Americans (breaking welfare, “tough on crime” police policies, helped the for-profit prison industry), and he also used a softer version of the Southern Strategy (Sistah Souljah) to win over right-wingers and portions of the South. Even Obama didn’t do all that much, all things considered. White middle-of-the-road Liberals will excite African Americans less and less as time goes by. You know, I think the record is pretty clear that the African-American vote is the bedrock of the establishment Democratic Party. They’ve made their choice prelametty clear in election after election that they prefer the establishment choice. Bill Clinton is second only to Barack Obama in popularity among African-American voters. One of the funny things about the angry white voter is that whether liberal or conservative, they are mostly angry about the same thing: increased inequality. They just blame different people. But African-Americans don’t really blame anyone, because they’ve seen pretty consistent advances and their middle class has grown at the same time the white middle class has shrunk. They have no reason to be upset with the establishment wing of the party. And every reason to distrust the progressive wing. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/70 "2017-09-06T05:51:22Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Just to be clear, here and elsewhere when you refer to the common man, you are really referring to the common white Judeo-Christian man. As opposed to those “elite” inner city blacks on welfare. You’re partly right. It is mainly the white working class that has this anger issue. And it’s also a fact that the elite wants the white working class to take the hit to raise up minorities. And take the hit to fight global warming while they are at it, although that applies to the working class as a whole. Black coal miners and oil rig workers are losing their jobs too. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/71 "2017-09-06T09:37:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You know, I think the record is pretty clear that the African-American vote is the bedrock of the establishment Democratic Party. Sorry, but this is nuts, just on demographics alone. African Americans are still less than 15% of the US population, and make up an even lower percentage of voters. Non-Hispanic whites are over 60% of the population, and about 40% of them tend Democratic. I.e., about a quarter of all voters are non-Latinx white Democrats. Even if every single African American voter was a Democrat, they wouldn’t be close to forming the “bedrock”, numerically, of the Democratic Party. Hispanics are about 18% of voters and about two-thirds of them tend Democratic, so at 12% of the total, Hispanic Democrats are nearly comparable to the total African-American voting bloc all by themselves. [QUOTE=adaher] But African-Americans don’t really blame anyone, because they’ve seen pretty consistent advances and their middle class has grown at the same time the white middle class has shrunk. They have no reason to be upset with the establishment wing of the party. And every reason to distrust the progressive wing. [/QUOTE] I doubt it. While black voters understandably rallied around Obama and were unenthusiastic about Sanders, a white socialist from an overwhelmingly white Northeastern state, that doesn’t mean that progressivism itself is less appealing to them than centrism. I also think that “pretty consistent advances” doesn’t make a lot of sense as a description for black Americans these days. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/72 "2017-09-06T10:15:07Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Sorry, but this is nuts, just on demographics alone. African Americans are still less than 15% of the US population, and make up an even lower percentage of voters. Non-Hispanic whites are over 60% of the population, and about 40% of them tend Democratic. I.e., about a quarter of all voters are non-Latinx white Democrats. They make up a fairly large proportion of the Democratic primary vote, and tend to throw their votes to one candidate as a bloc in primaries as well as general elections. And that candidate is almost always the establishment choice(Obama and Jesse Jackson were exceptions). In general elections, African-Americans can decide the outcome in several important swing states. Their turnout or lack thereof has been pivotal in the last few Presidential elections. > [@](#): > > Even if every single African American voter was a Democrat, they wouldn’t be close to forming the “bedrock”, numerically, of the Democratic Party. Hispanics are about 18% of voters and about two-thirds of them tend Democratic, so at 12% of the total, Hispanic Democrats are nearly comparable to the total African-American voting bloc all by themselves. Latinos aren’t an Electoral College factor. The only swing state they can decisively turn is Florida, and those Latinos are very different in their voting behavior from Latinos everywhere else in the country. > [@](#): > > I doubt it. While black voters understandably rallied around Obama and were unenthusiastic about Sanders, a white socialist from an overwhelmingly white Northeastern state, that doesn’t mean that progressivism itself is less appealing to them than centrism. I don’t think most African-American voters are all that ideological in their voting behavior. It’s about respect, and they’ve supported the national party and it’s designated choices for a long time. They’ve never been giving a compelling reason, either from Republicans, or the newest generation of progressives, to change their behavior. > [@](#): > > I also think that “pretty consistent advances” doesn’t make a lot of sense as a description for black Americans these days. In terms of economic gains, African-Americans have seen quite a bit of progress at the same time that the overall income picture for the middle class has been stagnant. Tons more black college graduates, more middle class and wealthy African-Americans, and the income gap is closing steadily. There’s a lot about this country that African-Americans would like to see change, but I don’t think the basic economoic system is one of them. That’s why Bernie’s message didn’t resonate. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/73 "2017-09-06T10:41:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You’re partly right. It is mainly the white working class that has this anger issue. This is true. > [@](#): > > And it’s also a fact that the elite wants the white working class to take the hit to raise up minorities. And take the hit to fight global warming while they are at it, although that applies to the working class as a whole. Black coal miners and oil rig workers are losing their jobs too. And this is why they’re angry. Not because it’s remotely true - it’s not - but because the right-wing media constantly tell them it’s true. Because tell them “Liberals want to give **your** job to minorities and illegals!” serves their political purpose far more than the truth, which is that automation, technological changes, offshoring and (in the case of the energy industries) fracking are the reasons people are losing their jobs, and the people profiting from those changes are keen to keep the white working class from realizing that. Keep 'em angry and they’re less likely to stop and think, right? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/74 "2017-09-06T10:46:20Z")
The people profiting from these changes are doing it quietly. The Democrats are supporting these changes loudly. Big difference. And they haven’t been content to let coal die a natural death. They’ve been working hard to speed up the process. As for immigration, Democrats have taken an extreme stance that they never would have contemplated back when unions ran the show. Of course, if unions ran the show, they would have gotten their way on the Keystone Pipeline too. In the Democratic Party of 2017, private sector unions are at the back of the line. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/75 "2017-09-06T10:48:34Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > [83% of black Americans identify as Christians,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Black_America#Religious_demographics) and the black vote goes overwhelmingly Democratic, so do they fall under the category of “invisible sky pixie believers?” It’s really a different thread, but I think they fall under the category of liars. 90% of all people who identify as Christians are atheists. My evidence for that is the way they behave. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/76 "2017-09-06T11:18:26Z")
I’ll buy that, but for the purposes of political behavior, African-Americans are overtly religious and consider that an important aspect of their identity. This is also true of Jews, most of whom are nonpracticing but vote Democrat overwhelmingly whereas Christian whites vote Republican by about 20 points. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/77 "2017-09-06T11:29:02Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **HurricaneDitka** : > > Take a look at those exit polls I posted a link to earlier. Why do you think it is that the right consistently wins people who attend church weekly and loses those who never do? Trump overwhelmingly won “White evangelical or white born-again Christians” (81%). He won 58% of “Protestant or other Christian” and 52% of “Catholic” while losing (badly) the following categories: “Jewish” “Something else” and “None”. From which it’s reasonable to say that Republicans are the party of white evangelicals. But white evangelicals are not all of Christianity, and of Christians as a whole, Republicans get somewhere between 52% and 58% (I don’t know the exact breakdown of Catholics vs. Protestants). That’s pretty close to evenly split. Put another way: White Christians are a bigger part of the Democratic party than blacks and non-Christians combined. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/78 "2017-09-06T11:47:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The people profiting from these changes are doing it quietly. The Democrats are supporting these changes loudly. Big difference. And they haven’t been content to let coal die a natural death. They’ve been working hard to speed up the process. No, the people opposing the changes are the ones turning up the volume, screeching about how perverts are going to molest our children in public bathrooms. And then, when the Democrats fight back, they claim that this proves that Democrats only care about gays/blacks/transpeople/whatever the alt-right bugaboo of the week is. And then other people repeat that message. It’s propaganda, not reality. And Democrats are not “speeding up” the death of coal. They’re certainly trying to prevent deaths of actual people, but it’s fracking (much beloved of the Republicans) that has accelerated the death of the coal industry. Meanwhile, the Republicans keep promising that they’ll bring coal jobs back (hint: they won’t) even as they cut funding for safety inspections in mines AND cut funding to the programs that were retraining coal miners for other fields. But at least they’re doing it quietly, right? > [@](#): > > As for immigration, Democrats have taken an extreme stance that they never would have contemplated back when unions ran the show. Of course, if unions ran the show, they would have gotten their way on the Keystone Pipeline too. In the Democratic Party of 2017, private sector unions are at the back of the line. This makes no coherent sense. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/79 "2017-09-06T12:34:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > OMG, I kept trying to tell people that! It didn’t work though, because I don’t think Americans have ever really seen money as equalling elite status. Yeah someone can be rich and not ‘classy’ at the same time. Being ‘classy’ involves special rules of conduct that are established by a class. There are dress codes. There are social protocols. Certain clubs in which to participate. Certain social events. People all know each other and repeatedly encounter each other reinforcing their social bonds and thus their status. All of this varies somewhat from city to city. I’m familiar with the Southern version of elitism, which is probably quite similar to elitism in San Francisco and New York but takes on a different appearance and with different codes, rituals, and traditions. Not sure how someone who was born into a family of well-established wealth found himself on the outside looking in but I’ve read it has something to do with Trump being from Queens and feeling rebuffed by the upper echelons of Manhattan. I suspect it’s possible that Trump could have easily been accepted by Manhattan’s high class had he been more of a real philanthropist and done things that wealthy people there do. It just isn’t in his DNA. He’s a schmuck and he was taught to be a ‘counter-puncher’ anytime someone confronts him on it. Which brings me to a related point: I see this in a lot of people who are inclined to support Trump, and that’s what they like about him. They like that he doesn’t apologize for simply being whatever the hell he wants to be. But they also share Trump’s anti-intellectualism and distrust of establishment in other forms, including established sources of quality information. They rail against higher education. They attack public schools. They reject science on climate change. All of this is because they live in a world based on what they perceive to be true. They perceive in truth that is based on their own personal experiences more than ‘facts’ from people who actually make an effort to learn and study things. Anyone who lives in a fact-based world is now supposedly some sort of stuck-up elitist, it would seem. This goes back to things like ‘alternative facts’ and ‘fake news’. It’s one thing to disagree over the facts; it’s another to ignore facts and to refuse to listen to facts altogether because they don’t support a particular argument. A byproduct of living in a world of perceived truth is that it results in unfounded biases, not only toward people who think differently but who also simply appear to be different. These biases in turn lead to unfounded anxieties and perceptions of threat, which consequently results in aggressive responses. I think this is where the fault line between Trumpism and anti-Trumpism lie. Of course this is just one fault line; there are fault lines along the left as well. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2017, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588/80 "2017-09-06T17:23:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > How true do you think these two statements is? > > The Democrats used to represent the better instincts of the common man. Now they represent the better instincts of the elite. > > The Republicans used to represent the worst instincts of the elite, now they represent the worst instincts of the common man. > > Had that thought today, and while one can certainly find many exceptions, it seems at least somewhat truish to me. Anyone disagree? These statements are very apt and seem correct. Thank you, **adaher**. > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I agree that Democrats are representatives of elitist interests and Republicans are representative of the interests of the common man. > > I disagree that Democrats represent “better instincts” and Republicans represent “worst instincts”. This post is unusually incorrect. Sorry, **Hurricane**. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-a-political-realignment-already-taken-place/795588.md?page=5)