# Has an ardent conspiracy theorist ever been dissuaded? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [August 21, 2010, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959 "2010-08-21T07:51:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/21 "2010-08-22T13:56:32Z")
> [@Superhal](#): > > I see it happen all the time to 13 year olds. > > Them: I don’t wanna study math! I’m going to play pro basketball! > Me: You know Kevin Garnett, Kobe, and Vince Carter all went back to school to finish their college degrees? > Them: Oh…then I’m going to be a rapper! > Me: You know that music is based on math? > Them: You suck! First: Music is only tenuously based on math. ‘Music is based on math’ is the kind of not-even-half-true junk elementary school teachers spout to cover for the fact elementary school math really isn’t all that useful once you’re no longer punished for using a calculator. Frankly, it would be much better to teach basic statistics in at least some of the time devoted to math at all grade levels. Second: What? What does this have to do with anything else in this thread? > [@Mijin](#): > > …oh, and as well as pride I think another factor is the fallacy of “sunk costs”. > > That the more time / money / whatever you’ve spent on something, the more difficult it becomes to accept it was simply a waste of time. To clarify: “Sunk cost” is the term the morons refuse to understand. It’s the concept that you can’t get a return on all investments and, at some point, the only rational action is to stop throwing money or other resources (time, attention, emotional energy, etc.) down the rathole. “Sunk cost” is most certainly not a fallacy; the fallacy is ignoring the concept. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/22 "2010-08-22T15:25:28Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > “Sunk cost” is the term the morons refuse to understand. It’s the concept that you can’t get a return on all investments and, at some point, the only rational action is to stop throwing money or other resources (time, attention, emotional energy, etc.) down the rathole. “Sunk cost” is most certainly not a fallacy; the fallacy is ignoring the concept. That may apply to rational investors, assuming any such animal exists, but Mijin is exactly right that there is a huge psychological resistance to abandoning an invested-in belief. The term “sunk costs” can be applied here. English works that way. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/23 "2010-08-22T16:19:08Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > That may apply to rational investors, assuming any such animal exists, but Mijin is exactly right that there is a huge psychological resistance to abandoning an invested-in belief. The term “sunk costs” can be applied here. English works that way. I guess my phrasing made it seem like I was defining a formal fallacy, when what I was trying to do was just give a name to a common psychological error. **Derleth** describes as “morons” those that don’t understand sunk costs, but the phenomenon I was describing is very common, probably something that we all do from time to time. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/24 "2010-08-22T17:10:16Z")
Superhal writes: \> I see it happen all the time to 13 year olds. \> \> Them: I don’t wanna study math! I’m going to play pro basketball! \> Me: You know Kevin Garnett, Kobe, and Vince Carter all went back to school to \> finish their college degrees? \> Them: Oh…then I’m going to be a rapper! \> Me: You know that music is based on math? \> Them: You suck! I’ll ignore for the moment whether this is a good argument or not. My objection is that I can’t believe that you see this happen “all the time.” So do you live in the middle of a nearly all black neighborhood in the inner city, and do you spend all your free time acting as a mentor to the neighborhood kids? If not, how could you frequently be having such conversations? I’m a white guy with a masters in math living in a majority-black apartment complex where I probably have the highest annual income of anyone living there, and I can attest that no such conversations ever go on. ---
**Author:** ![GHO57](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/df788c/32.png) [@GHO57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GHO57)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/25 "2010-08-22T17:34:57Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > My objection is that I can’t believe that you see this happen “all the time.” So do you live in the middle of a nearly all black neighborhood in the inner city, and do you spend all your free time acting as a mentor to the neighborhood kids? If not, how could you frequently be having such conversations? I’m a white guy with a masters in math living in a majority-black apartment complex where I probably have the highest annual income of anyone living there, and I can attest that no such conversations ever go on. :dubious: oh… right :smack: Black/basketball… obviously, what was I thinking. Carry on. ---
**Author:** ![qpw3141](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/6bbea6/32.png) [@qpw3141](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/qpw3141)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/26 "2010-08-22T17:45:12Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > I’m a white guy with a masters in math living in a majority-black apartment complex where I probably have the highest annual income of anyone living there, and I can attest that no such conversations ever go on. You have the entire place bugged? :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/27 "2010-08-22T17:54:41Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > > [@Derleth](#): > > > > “Sunk cost” is the term the morons refuse to understand. It’s the concept that you can’t get a return on all investments and, at some point, the only rational action is to stop throwing money or other resources (time, attention, emotional energy, etc.) down the rathole. “Sunk cost” is most certainly not a fallacy; the fallacy is ignoring the concept. > > That may apply to rational investors, assuming any such animal exists, but Mijin is exactly right that there is a huge psychological resistance to abandoning an invested-in belief. The term “sunk costs” can be applied here. English works that way. So, how does this make the idea of “sunk cost” a fallacy of any sort? The fallacy is _refusing to understand sunk costs._ ---
**Author:** ![hogarth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hogarth/32/1773_2.png) [@hogarth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hogarth)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/28 "2010-08-22T19:28:09Z")
In the movie “Mr Death: The Rise and Fall of Fred A. Leuchter”, Fred changed his mind about the gas chambers at Auschwitz, didn’t he? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/29 "2010-08-22T20:12:38Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > So, how does this make the idea of “sunk cost” a fallacy of any sort? The fallacy is _refusing to understand sunk costs._ I’m not the first person to use sunk cost fallacy in [this way](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy). The sunk cost _dilemma_ is more often referred to, but so what? ---
**Author:** ![Nefarious\_Chipmunk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nefarious_chipmunk/32/1045_2.png) [@Nefarious\_Chipmunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nefarious_Chipmunk)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/30 "2010-08-22T20:24:31Z")
I had a friend who fervently believed that the moon landing was a hoax. Her belief was based on a television program she had seen that talked about it and internet research. No amount of arguing/making fun of her would change her mind. She actively propagated her opinion and we had many discussions about it. I was flabergasted by it because she otherwise seemed very down to earth and intelligent. I had completely given up on being able to change her mind. Then, she saw the Mythbusters episode on the moon landing which said a lot of the same things that I had, but with better illustrations. She instantly admitted she had been wrong. It was one of the most amazing things I have ever seen. It gave me hope that, if explained properly, some (though not all, I am sure) conspiracy theorists CAN be enlightened. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/31 "2010-08-22T20:45:36Z")
GHO57 writes: \> Black/basketball… obviously, what was I thinking. Carry on. Oh, come on. It’s obvious what Superhal really means. Wanting to be a basketball player, then a rapper. He couldn’t be straightforward enough to just say that these are black 13-year-olds. He just implied it so that he could convey the meaning that black kids have no realistic ambitions without quite saying it. I can’t imagine any adult having a conversation with 13-year-olds like Superhal is claiming. ---
**Author:** ![Superhal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Superhal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superhal)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/32 "2010-08-22T21:05:42Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > Superhal writes: > > \> I see it happen all the time to 13 year olds. > \> > \> Them: I don’t wanna study math! I’m going to play pro basketball! > \> Me: You know Kevin Garnett, Kobe, and Vince Carter all went back to school to > \> finish their college degrees? > \> Them: Oh…then I’m going to be a rapper! > \> Me: You know that music is based on math? > \> Them: You suck! > > I’ll ignore for the moment whether this is a good argument or not. My objection is that I can’t believe that you see this happen “all the time.” So do you live in the middle of a nearly all black neighborhood in the inner city, and do you spend all your free time acting as a mentor to the neighborhood kids? If not, how could you frequently be having such conversations? I’m a white guy with a masters in math living in a majority-black apartment complex where I probably have the highest annual income of anyone living there, and I can attest that no such conversations ever go on. Yes, when I was teaching low-income 6th-8th graders. None were black, all were short, and the conversation above happened with a female student. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/33 "2010-08-22T21:16:03Z")
That’s really hard to believe. A 13-year-old male who’s tall for his age is hoping for something that he has very little chance of achieving if he wants to be a professional basketball player. A 13-year-old male who’s short for his age and wants that is outright delusional. Were these kids on drugs? I find it hard to believe that there are that many kids out there with aspirations that are that ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2010, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/34 "2010-08-22T22:33:27Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > > > That may apply to rational investors, assuming any such animal exists, but Mijin is exactly right that there is a huge psychological resistance to abandoning an invested-in belief. The term “sunk costs” can be applied here. English works that way. > > So, how does this make the idea of “sunk cost” a fallacy of any sort? The fallacy is _refusing to understand sunk costs._ It didn’t occur to me that you were objecting to “fallacy” because you say yourself that continuing to invest in a lost cause is not rational. How can that action not be fallacious? ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2010, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/35 "2010-08-25T03:04:44Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > > [@Derleth](#): > > > > So, how does this make the idea of “sunk cost” a fallacy of any sort? The fallacy is _refusing to understand sunk costs._ > > It didn’t occur to me that you were objecting to “fallacy” because you say yourself that continuing to invest in a lost cause is not rational. How can that action not be fallacious? I think **Mijin** ’s Wikipedia link explained this as well as it can be: I’m primarily objecting to a quirk of usage which I find confusing, namely the practice of using “sunk cost” to mean “can’t stop throwing money down the rathole” as opposed to “money you have already thrown down the rathole and won’t get back if you throw more down there” in the phrase “sunk cost fallacy”. In short: Read the first line of the Wikipedia article. (“In economics and business decision-making, **sunk costs** are retrospective (past) costs that have already been incurred and cannot be recovered.”) Then try to make that definition square with the phrase “sunk cost fallacy” in a way that _doesn’t_ revise the definition completely. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2010, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959/36 "2010-08-25T03:34:29Z")
ok Firstly, in my original post that started this tangent, I used scare quotes around “sunk costs” – I was aware of the more formal economic meaning of this term, but I figured people would know what I meant. Secondly, the sunk cost _fallacy_ is just a fallacy that happens to involve sunk costs e.g. watching a movie, even though you’d rather not, because you’ve already paid for the ticket. Having a fallacy that involves sunk costs no more broadens its definition than the masked man fallacy or nirvana fallacy broaden the definition of masked men or nirvana. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-an-ardent-conspiracy-theorist-ever-been-dissuaded/550959.md?page=1)