# Has Democratic voter turnout basically hit a ceiling and can't go any higher? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [August 23, 2025, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410 "2025-08-23T05:23:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/41 "2025-08-25T15:45:28Z")
I don’t think this is the answer. Democrats kept claiming Trump was a uniquely horrible man and candidate (which he was.) And Harris, by any measure, was a normal-centrist-reasonable candidate. If they truly believed Trump was uniquely horrid, they should have had no problem turning out in sky-high rates to vote against him. The fact that Democrats in swing states didn’t turn out to vote against Trump in very high numbers shows that they either 1) don’t truly believe Trump is awful, or 2) they do believe it but think it’s okay to let him be president for four more years anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/42 "2025-08-25T15:46:19Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The fact that Democrats in swing states didn’t turn out to vote against Trump in very high numbers shows that they either 1) don’t truly believe Trump is awful, o and that is precisely why so many of us have lost hope. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/43 "2025-08-25T15:48:46Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The fact that Democrats in swing states didn’t turn out to vote against Trump in very high numbers shows that they either 1) don’t truly believe Trump is awful, or 2) they do believe it but think it’s okay to let him be president for four more years anyway. 1. He promised to make the economy better. Besides, congress and the courts were going to control him as before… Didn’t work as expected… > [@Procrustus](#): > > and that is precisely why so many of us have lost hope. While I didn’t want to comment on the hope thing, most polls do report that besides Trump having almost no “honeymoon” period, most people want a divorce now. Keep the pressure of your representatives. My Republican Rep in Arizona is just doing a [Sir Robin](https://youtu.be/BZwuTo7zKM8?t=61) with his constituents who are **supposed** to be friendlier. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/44 "2025-08-25T16:02:17Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > No worries. As we’ve been told, the demographic revolution means inevitable Democratic Party dominance for generations to come. > > 🤔 In a democracy, it would. That’s why they are destroying democracy, so their lack of support becomes irrelevant. And of course, fascists have a longstanding Final Solution for demographic issues. It won’t matter that they would have eventually been outnumbered enough to no longer be able to win elections when their opponents are all rotting in mass graves. ---
**Author:** ![Kropotkin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kropotkin/32/18045_2.png) [@Kropotkin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kropotkin)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/45 "2025-08-25T16:17:25Z")
This article from the Guardian speaks to some of the issues raised in this thread. > **[The Democrats are in deep trouble in the US – and Labour is on the way to...](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/25/us-democrats-collapse-in-support-labour-uk)** > > When millions of once-loyal supporters become disillusioned with a party, there can only be one result: electoral disaster, says Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/46 "2025-08-25T16:21:33Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > > [@Jackmannii](#): > > > > No worries. As we’ve been told, the demographic revolution means inevitable Democratic Party dominance for generations to come. > > > > 🤔 > > **In a democracy, it would.** That’s why they are destroying democracy, so their lack of support becomes irrelevant. And of course, fascists have a longstanding Final Solution for demographic issues. > > It won’t matter that they would have eventually been outnumbered enough to no longer be able to win elections when their opponents are all rotting in mass graves. (emphasis mine) You make it sound as if all the black, Hispanic, Asian, women, young etc. voters who voted for Trump in 2024 wanted to vote for Harris but somehow some glitch in the democratic system prevented them from being able to do so. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/47 "2025-08-25T16:23:22Z")
I think this is the Guardian noticing the same report that **PhillyGuy** noted and I replied to. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > Turnout percent is a mistaken focus when the number of Ds is declining: > > > > [The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/politics/democratic-party-voter-registration-crisis.html?unlocked_article_code=1.gk8.pA6W.6EDAjuDzllGu&smid=url-share) > > As a counter to that, the generic ballot shows that people, no matter how they register, are not much amused with the Republicans. > > [Democrats lead in House generic ballot polls by 2.3 points](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-lead-house-generic-ballot) ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/48 "2025-08-25T16:32:35Z")
This works both ways though, which is why I think the premise of this thread is silly. There is a minority who’s identity is tied to a particular party, and will always vote for them. But there is plenty of people, particularly young, who do not have strong political beliefs that line up with a party, who may vote, but probably only if they think a candidate will actually help them. I think it is pretty clear that messages like the other guy is terrible vote for us or the economy is actually pretty good all things considered didn’t really appeal to them, but it doesn’t mean that other messages and messengers won’t. I think Democrats can win again and win comfortably, but they need to focus on the what/who/how of communication a lot more then the demographics of getting 50.1% the vote that they often have of late. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/49 "2025-08-25T16:54:59Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > You make it sound as if all the black, Hispanic, Asian, women, young etc. voters who voted for Trump in 2024 wanted to vote for Harris but somehow some glitch in the democratic system prevented them from being able to do so. No; but if democracy (and they) survived they or their children would have voted Democratic eventually. That’s the historical pattern after all, minority group decides to vote right wing for some shortsighted reason, they get treated like garbage by the people they voted for and eventually change their mind. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/50 "2025-08-25T17:04:25Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > No; but if democracy (and they) survived they or their children would have voted Democratic eventually. That’s the historical pattern after all, minority group decides to vote right wing for some shortsighted reason, they get treated like garbage by the people they voted for and eventually change their mind. Except it isn’t. Back in the day those minorities, at least in the US, included people like Catholics, Mormons, Italians, and Irish. Now all those groups are firmly part of the majority, and behave as such. They aren’t going to go back to supporting a political party just because great grandpa voted Democratic because he was Irish and Catholic. Why? Because the reason great grandpa voted D had nothing to do with any inherent property of being Irish and Catholic. It was because great grandpa was an outsider looking in. Now that great grandson is an insider, there’s no motivation to vote for the party of outsiders looking in just because that’s what was traditionally done in his family. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/51 "2025-08-25T17:10:05Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Except it isn’t. Back in the day those minorities, at least in the US, included people like Catholics, Mormons, Italians, and Irish. Now all those groups are firmly part of the majority, and behave as such. That was then, this is now. I recall the last time we were told that minorities were going to switch to supporting the Republicans after Bush II made inroads with Hispanics. The rest of the party was so hostile that the trend in that direction promptly collapsed. And it’s only gotten more fanatically bigoted since then. It doesn’t _matter_ if these people want to be “part of the majority”. They’ll _never_ be allowed to be. And enough beatings and killings by the fascists will convince them of that, not that it’ll make a difference at that point. Or save their lives, and they certainly won’t join the party when they are dead. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/52 "2025-08-25T17:19:32Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > It doesn’t _matter_ if these people want to be “part of the majority”. They’ll _never_ be allowed to be. And enough beatings and killings by the fascists will convince them of that, not that it’ll make a difference at that point. Or save their lives, and they certainly won’t join the party when they are dead. They already have been let in. A lot of the members of these newer fascist organizations like the Proud Boys are young Latino men. ---
**Author:** ![DCTrekkie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dctrekkie/32/18862_2.png) [@DCTrekkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCTrekkie)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/53 "2025-08-25T17:25:47Z")
I think part of the problem is that there’s been 10 years/3 elections where the Democrats main message has been “Don’t let Trump win” or “We’re not Trump”. That sort of messaging only works for so long. The Democrats need to come up with ideas that will actively help people (e.g. noticeably more money in their pocket rather than vague increases in the economy), and convince voters that they will fight to implement them, rather than give up as soon as the Republicans or businesses object. I expect that a lot of voters are also thinking that if Trump is so bad (which he 100% is), why didn’t the Biden administration do anything about him. They seemed to slow walk a lot of the investigations (for fear of looking political). Its easy for a low information voters to think that he can’t be that bad if hes not been prosecuted for anything he did in his first term, and therefore theres no urgent need to vote. Even now, haven’t Democrats been voting to approve many of his appointments, no matter how unsuitable? That certainly sends a message that he’s not much of a threat (incorrect though it may be). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/54 "2025-08-25T17:41:54Z")
Exactly. There are many racial-minority voters who strongly oppose illegal immigration. I think many progressives think that nonwhite people will always think of themselves as outsiders and don’t grasp how quickly a person’s mindset can flip from “I’m on the outside” to “I’m in the in-group.” ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/55 "2025-08-25T18:03:46Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > There are many racial-minority voters who strongly oppose illegal immigration. Because they think that _they_ aren’t on the “to be gotten rid of” list. But they _are;_ those are the sort of people who end up as examples of “leopards eating faces”. > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > They already have been let in. A lot of the members of these newer fascist organizations like the Proud Boys are young Latino men. No, they haven’t been “let in”, they are just useful idiots who will be disposed of when their usefulness is over. They’ll have their own “[Night of the Long Knives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives)” sooner or later. Probably sooner. That’s what _happens_ to people who cooperate with fascists thinking that they’ll be the exception to the murderous rule. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/56 "2025-08-25T21:14:44Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > No, they haven’t been “let in”, they are just useful idiots who will be disposed of when their usefulness is over. They’ll have their own “[Night of the Long Knives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives)” sooner or later. Probably sooner. If you’re wrong, when will we know? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/57 "2025-08-25T21:18:35Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > If you’re wrong, when will we know? If the Republicans somehow lose power, and therefore can’t actually go through with it. Assuming we live long enough to see it. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/58 "2025-08-25T21:25:18Z")
No, I’m asking: how long would the Republicans have to be in power, and what you predict doesn’t come to pass, before you’d say you were wrong about the ‘probably sooner’ part — and how long would they have to be in power, and what you predict doesn’t come to pass, before you rethink that part likewise? ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/59 "2025-08-25T21:31:31Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > No, they haven’t been “let in”, they are just useful idiots who will be disposed of when their usefulness is over. They’ll have their own “[Night of the Long Knives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives)” sooner or later. Probably sooner. That’s what _happens_ to people who cooperate with fascists thinking that they’ll be the exception to the murderous rule. The minorities in question aren’t the odd Latino who is sliding under the radar in Cour d’Alene, Idaho in a sea of white people. I’m talking about Latinos who live in places like the Rio Grande Valley, Laredo, El Paso, and Corpus Christi. Places where it’s likely that the mayor, multiple members of the city council, the sheriff, the chief of police, prominent members of the business community, etc., are also Latinos. Talk of “the white man is keeping you down” isn’t going to resonate in those kinds of setting. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2025, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410/60 "2025-08-25T21:37:04Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > The minorities in question aren’t the odd Latino who is sliding under the radar in Cour d’Alene, Idaho in a sea of white people. I’m talking about Latinos who live in places like the Rio Grande Valley, Laredo, El Paso, and Corpus Christi. Places where it’s likely that the mayor, multiple members of the city council, the sheriff, the chief of police, prominent members of the business community, etc., are also Latinos. In other words, people soon to be targeted and removed as “DEI hires”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-democratic-voter-turnout-basically-hit-a-ceiling-and-cant-go-any-higher/1022410.md?page=4)