# Has North Korea ever entered the 5th stage of collapse, is it realistic **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 30, 2013, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058 "2013-04-30T00:52:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/1 "2013-04-30T00:52:41Z")
There is a theory on the collapse of North Korea, explaining that it will occur in seven stages. Supposedly this formula is based on the collapse of other communist countries. > **[Robert D. Kaplan on the Collapse of North Korea](https://nkmonitor.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/robert-d-kaplan-on-the-collapse-of-north-korea/)** > > Atlantic Monthly just opened its vaults (HT to Coming Anarchy) and while perusing the Robert Kaplan section, I came across this article on Kaplan’s predictions for North Korea’s future. It was writ… > [@](#): > > Phase One: resource depletion; > > Phase Two: the failure to maintain infrastructure around the country because of resource depletion; > > Phase Three: the rise of independent fiefs informally controlled by local party apparatchiks or warlords, along with widespread corruption to circumvent a failing central government; > > Phase Four: the attempted suppression of these fiefs by the KFR once it feels that they have become powerful enough; > > Phase Five: active resistance against the central government; > > Phase Six: the fracture of the regime; and > > Phase Seven: the formation of new national leadership. North Korea seems like it is fluctuating between the 3rd and 4th phase and has for the last 30 years, but I’ve never seen signs of stage 5. Due to the poverty and famine, there is supposedly a lot of corruption and black market trading. I don’t know about local fiefs though. Then the central government cracks down, but the people may fight back. I’ve heard (not sure if it is true) that the NK government has mostly given up trying to stop black market trading. But they never seem to enter a 5th phase where there is active resistance against the central government. It seems like the oppression and orwellian oversight is too overpowering, and the public too brainwashed to really form any kind of active resistance. Are there any signs of NK entering the 5th phase, or of there being meaningful resistance to the regime? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/2 "2013-04-30T00:54:05Z")
Do we have any real proof they have even reached phase 3? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/3 "2013-04-30T00:57:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Do we have any real proof they have even reached phase 3? My understanding is corruption is widespread, but I don’t think there are any local warlords. The central regime tries to clamp down on the corruption and efforts to circumvent the central government to varying degrees at varying times. Like I was saying, with issues like smuggling and black market trading I think they’ve mostly realized they aren’t winning. But supposedly the new Kim is trying to clamp down again, I heard border crossings are harder now than under Kim Jong Il. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/4 "2013-04-30T01:05:23Z")
NK doesn’t have resource depletion. They have a shitload of resources, but their economy is so brain-dead that they can’t exploit them. They lease large tracts of land to Chinese mining companies, for instance. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/5 "2013-04-30T01:12:51Z")
With the stages listed out like that it makes it seem that NK has bucked the trend and found a formula that “works”. I don’t see many signing up to start a militia, or even significant criminal organization, in a country with 1 million loyal soldiers and summary executions. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/6 "2013-04-30T02:08:15Z")
What’s KFR mean? And, no, I’m not perusing through a link just to find out what something you quoted in the OP means. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/7 "2013-04-30T02:14:59Z")
I don’t see North Korea ever being past phase 2 on that list. Yes, they tolerate black market trading but that’s because in the late 1990’s there was a severe famine and it was the black market keeping the population alive. Even so, the generation that grew up during those years shows definite signs of malnutrition, such as stunted adult height. I’ve never heard of local “fiefs” arising, it has been, and still is, firmly controlled by the central government/party. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/8 "2013-04-30T03:26:02Z")
Yes, is there any actual evidence for the rise of independent fiefdoms? All power is concentrated in the Korean Workers Party in Pyong Yang. A quick search of news articles about internal politics in North Korea didn’t reveal anything that looks similar. North Korea IS running out of time, because the smuggling of cell phones across the border from china means they can’t keep the isolation and news black out any longer and it’s becoming obvious to the younger generation that the crux of the state idealogy: Juche is a joke since they are completely dependent on China for food and electricity. Unforunately they are still in phase 2 and it could be a LONG process of unravelling. These articles have some insight into the internal politics of NK and no mentions are made of rise of independent fiefdoms. > **[Opinion | Domestic Politics, Pyongyang-Style (Published 2013)](https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/opinion/domestic-politics-pyongyang-style.html)** > > North Korea’s latest bluster is intended for the home audience. > **[HuffPost - Breaking News, U.S. and World News](https://www.huffpost.com/?err_code=404&err_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.huffingtonpost.com%2F2013%2F04%2F13%2Fnorth-korea-rhetoric-base_n_3076377.html)** > > Read the latest headlines, news stories, and opinion from Politics, Entertainment, Life, Perspectives, and more. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/9 "2013-04-30T14:31:02Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > What’s KFR mean? And, no, I’m not perusing through a link just to find out what something you quoted in the OP means. I’ll save you the trouble. This > [@Wesley Clark](#): > > theory on the collapse of North Korea, explaining that it will occur in seven stages. Supposedly this formula is based on the collapse of other communist countries. is in fact nothing more than the pet theory of Robert D. Kaplan. The KFR is the Kim Family Regime, which makes this theory rather North Korean specific and not in fact based on the collapse of other communist regimes, no? I don’t seem to recall the KFR having any role in the fall of communism in the USSR or Eastern Europe. I’m reminded of the 14 defining characteristics of fascism that made a number of rounds “proving” the US under Bush was heading towards fascism because of how well it fit into these “traits have since been widely accepted as the 14 defining characteristics of fascism.” If of course by widely accepted one means “was written in a magazine essay once by one person named Lawrence W. Britt.” ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/10 "2013-04-30T14:46:00Z")
Oh, and as an addendum, the seven stages first appears in Kaplan’s article _[When North Korea Falls](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/)_ published in _The Atlantic_ in October 2006 (the collapse is taking longer than we thought), where he explains the seven phases were outline to him by “Robert Collins, a retired Army master sergeant and now a civilian area expert for the American military in South Korea.” ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/11 "2013-04-30T18:16:48Z")
I’d imagine that phases 1 and 2 take a LONG time to manifest, 3 is still kind of long-term, but 4,5, 6 and 7 happen rather rapidly- as in less than a decade or so. So it’s likely that NK is still in 2, but moving toward 3. ---
**Author:** ![donnie\_darko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@donnie\_darko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/donnie_darko)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/12 "2013-04-30T21:19:44Z")
I heard that Pyongyang is quite a modern city now, but the rest of the country is stuck. It can’t be too long before the “city on the hill” starts to change North Korea. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/13 "2013-04-30T21:22:52Z")
Pyongyang is a hollow joke. Some parts of it are made up to _look_ like a modern city for visitors’ sake. ---
**Author:** ![donnie\_darko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@donnie\_darko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/donnie_darko)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/14 "2013-04-30T21:25:06Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Pyongyang is a hollow joke. Some parts of it are made up to _look_ like a modern city for visitors’ sake. I heard 2 million people there have cell phones now. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/15 "2013-04-30T22:34:22Z")
> [@bump](#): > > So it’s likely that NK is still in 2, but moving toward 3. If it’s likely then show us some evidence? We actually have evidence of the opposite, in July last year the Chief of Army of NK was dismissed and branded a counter revolutionary. > **[Ri Yong-ho](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ri_Yong-ho)** > > Ri Yong-ho may refer to the following two people: Seems to me the grip of the KWP is pretty iron clad, they don’t tolerate anyone else grabbing too much power. Unfortunately as long as China keeps propping them up with enough fuel and food to survive NK will not fall from internal pressure. Kaplan’s theory might happen if NK does something stupid enough to piss off China enough to cut off aid. Famine would be the result pretty quickly. The only other way NK will fall is if it does something stupid enough to actually provoke a shooting war with the south / US. In which case the regime will be taken out pretty quickly but only at the cost of 10’s of millions of South Korean lives and the destruction of Seoul. In that scenario China is not going to stay out of it, they won’t tolerate a united Korea with US troops at their border. So the US / Korea rolls tanks in from the south and China rolls tanks in from the North. Then it gets ugly. ---
**Author:** ![donnie\_darko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@donnie\_darko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/donnie_darko)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/16 "2013-04-30T22:36:06Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > So the US / Korea rolls tanks in from the south and China rolls tanks in from the North. Then it gets ugly. The nuking of Seoul by the North would probably be the start of World War 3. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/17 "2013-04-30T22:56:57Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > I don’t see North Korea ever being past phase 2 on that list. > > Yes, they tolerate black market trading but that’s because in the late 1990’s there was a severe famine and it was the black market keeping the population alive. Even so, the generation that grew up during those years shows definite signs of malnutrition, such as stunted adult height. > > I’ve never heard of local “fiefs” arising, it has been, and still is, firmly controlled by the central government/party. Yeah, you are probably right. I agree there are no local warlords, but there is a lot of black market trading and corruption to get around the failed central state. But I don’t see any local authorities coming up who resist the central gov. So they would arguably only be in phase 2, seeing how phase 5 requires those local warlords to actively resist the government. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/18 "2013-04-30T23:14:56Z")
> [@donnie\_darko](#): > > The nuking of Seoul by the North would probably be the start of World War 3. Hopefully not, I think its more likely that in any hot scenario, NK uses conventional artillery on Seoul and uses it’s Nukes on massed South / US army forces crossing their border instead. They can unleash 500,000 artillery rounds on Seoul in the first hour: > **[A Look At North Korea's Artillery Shows Why No One Wants War](https://www.businessinsider.com/why-no-one-in-korea-wants-war-2013-4)** > > An exploration of the reasons behind the Korean desire for peace, highlighting historical and cultural factors influencing public sentiment. The US then obliterates Pyong Yang with conventional weapons using massive air strikes. China rolls in from the north and grabs as much land as possible but stops short of actually attacking US / Southern forces. The end result is a slightly bigger south Korea and China controlling most of the former NK. An ugly bloody war with a combined death toll of 10-20 million between North and South Korea but not the start of WW III. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/19 "2013-04-30T23:38:35Z")
> [@donnie\_darko](#): > > The nuking of Seoul by the North would probably be the start of World War 3. Who vs. Whom? ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2013, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058/20 "2013-04-30T23:51:17Z")
There is no significant infrastructure to maintain. There are a few “islands” of technology that need a few roads and power lines. The rest of the country may as well be in the middle ages. Do oxen count as “infrastructure”? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-north-korea-ever-entered-the-5th-stage-of-collapse-is-it-realistic/657058.md?page=2)