Has Putin shot himself in the foot by blocking food imports?

[BrainGlutton]

@AK84

You do realise that their are other countries who would be happy to sell Russia food besides western ones right?

Which means they’re not selling that same food elsewhere, which enlarges the market elsewhere for American and Euro food.

[JohnT]

@Martin_Hyde

What it does mean though, is that specialty foods that are primarily eaten by the urban upper middle class in Russia will no longer be available. But incidentally this is a part of the 20% of the population that hasn’t bought into Putin’s ultra-nationalist rhetoric.

This is not correct. The four largest categories of food imported by Russia are:

1. Bovine Meat
2. Beverages
3. Pigs Meat
4. Milk

Compare that to the US, where the four largest categories are:

1. Fish and Shellfish
2. Fruits (mostly tropical fruits - $9b of the $13b imported by the US is from Central and South American countries)
3. Beverages
4. Cereals and Grains (over 1/2 of which is Canadian wheat.)

Therefore, Russia is importing basic staples, not the higher cost, value-added products that the US imports.

Citations: Russian Food Imports/Exports: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/est/meetings/wto_comm/Trade_Policy_Brief_Russia_final.pdf

US Food Imports: USDA ERS - U.S. Food Imports (Requires MS Excel or compatible reader to view charts.)

[JohnT]

“Canadian wheat” in the above should say “Canadian grains.”

[Buck_Godot]

I also suspect that the eventual implementation of this ban will involve certain “humanitarian” exceptions, where in this context “humanitarian” means that the importer is a close personal friend of Putin.

i.e. this may just be another tool Putin is going to use to take further control over Russia’s economy.

[Terr]

@here_and_there

Are you sure about that?

It would be interesting, if we had some more statistics…

Ukraine: Russia bans food imports from West in response to sanctions

The damage to consumers inflicted by the ban will be felt particularly hard in big cities like Moscow, where imported food fills an estimated 60-70 per cent of the market.
Ok, it is “big cities”. Much better. The peasants won’t starve.

[Martin_Hyde]

@JohnT

This is not correct. The four largest categories of food imported by Russia are:

1. Bovine Meat
2. Beverages
3. Pigs Meat
4. Milk

Compare that to the US, where the four largest categories are:

1. Fish and Shellfish
2. Fruits (mostly tropical fruits - $9b of the $13b imported by the US is from Central and South American countries)
3. Beverages
4. Cereals and Grains (over 1/2 of which is Canadian wheat.)

Therefore, Russia is importing basic staples, not the higher cost, value-added products that the US imports.

Citations: Russian Food Imports/Exports: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/est/meetings/wto_comm/Trade_Policy_Brief_Russia_final.pdf

US Food Imports: USDA ERS - U.S. Food Imports (Requires MS Excel or compatible reader to view charts.)

Okay, what you’ve not shown is that “bovine meat”, “beverages”, “pigs meat” and “milk” are ‘staples’ to Russians instead of more upper class foods. You do realize that stuff that may be considered staples in the United States may only appear on dinner tables in other countries on special occasions?

The WSJ reported this on the food sanctions:

The food ban is most likely to sting wealthier urbanites accustomed to indulgences such as French brie and German sausages—a fraction of the Russian electorate. Foreign wines and spirits—which middle-class Russians often buy as gifts or on special occasions—weren’t included on the list.

“The majority of the population is still orientated toward simple products, and these products are produced either in Russia or in countries with which there are no problems,” said Olga Kamenchuk, director for international research at the state pollster Vtsiom. “The majority of the population won’t suffer from these restrictions.”

[JohnT]

The internet works the same way for you as it does me, right?

Russian Food

RUSSIAN STAPLE FOODS AND NOT-SO STAPLE FOODS
Aside from traditional soups and salads, there are many familiar staple foods, such as bread, potatoes,** pork**, beef, sausages, fish, poultry, rice, buckwheat, salted cucumbers or cabbage, pastries, and caviar. You’ll also find an array of berries that aren’t widely eaten in America, and if you are in rural Russia during the right season, you can pluck them right off the bushes!

Milk is also a staple, though not listed in the above citation, and it is used in a number of products including fluid milk and cheeses.

Staple defined: “A staple food, sometimes simply referred to as a staple, is a food that is eaten routinely, and in such quantities that it constitutes a dominant portion of a standard diet in a given population…” (Wiki)

So, yes, research shows that a list of top Russian food imports consisting of beef, pork, and milk corresponds to a list of Russian food staples.

[Martin_Hyde]

Okay. Now show that these sanctions materially affect their supply of those staples, when every news article I’ve read about it says exactly the opposite, but instead says it’s mostly going to affect things like European cheeses and other specialty items.

[JohnT]

Uh, OK…

Russia Bans Food Imports in Retaliation for Western Sanctions

“Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev outlined the products subject to the one-year ban—beef, pork, poultry, fish, fruit, vegetables, cheese, milk and other dairy products from the U.S., Canada, the European Union, Norway and Australia—in a radical response to penalties imposed on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine.”

Oddly enough, it is OK to admit that you were wrong, Martin. I mean, the above list isn’t exactly “specialty foods.”

[BrainGlutton]

Why does Russia need import those things anyway? Doesn’t it have plenty of farmland and pasture?

[buddha_david]

@Terr

Ok, it is “big cities”. Much better. The peasants won’t starve.

Just where do you think the peasants live these days?

[Bozuit]

@AK84

You do realise that their are other countries who would be happy to sell Russia food besides western ones right?

Would it be in their interests? I mean, presumably food producers already have a plan for where it’s going. Is it worth telling their buyers “Sorry, I’m selling to Russia now”? The Russian market may dry up again in a year as European food returns, and the original buyer will likely have found a new supplier (and be unhappy with the previous one).

@buddha_david

Just where do you think the peasants live these days?

Just what do you think a peasant is?

[Martin_Hyde]

@JohnT

Uh, OK…

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russia-bans-food-imports-in-retaliation-to-western-sanctions-1407403035

“Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev outlined the products subject to the one-year ban—beef, pork, poultry, fish, fruit, vegetables, cheese, milk and other dairy products from the U.S., Canada, the European Union, Norway and Australia—in a radical response to penalties imposed on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine.”

Oddly enough, it is OK to admit that you were wrong, Martin. I mean, the above list isn’t exactly “specialty foods.”

Now show that these sanctions materially affect their supply of those staples, when every news article I’ve read about it says exactly the opposite, but instead says it’s mostly going to affect things like European cheeses and other specialty items.

Did you actually read any of the news articles? The one you linked to for example is the same one I’ve read, in which Russia says about $9bn of their $43bn of food imports will be affected. The article goes on to say it will not affect most Russians who still buy simple staple goods, because they are largely produced domestically or are imported from countries with which Russia does not have problems:

“The majority of the population is still orientated toward simple products, and these products are produced either in Russia or in countries with which there are no problems,” said Olga Kamenchuk, director for international research at the state pollster Vtsiom. “The majority of the population won’t suffer from these restrictions.”

Also:

The food ban is most likely to sting wealthier urbanites accustomed to indulgences such as French brie and German sausages—a fraction of the Russian electorate. Foreign wines and spirits—which middle-class Russians often buy as gifts or on special occasions—weren’t included on the list.

Since your own link proved what I was saying, this issue is now settled, your trying to make me seem wrong about who this would affect was a waste of time and you’ve disproven it yourself. Nice work.

[CarnalK]

Thanks for the research JohnT. Everything I was looking at reported about 30-40% of Russian food being imported making me suspicious of both Martin and Terr’s extremes but the note on the focus of imports is even more interesting.

[Martin_Hyde]

@CarnalK

Thanks for the research JohnT. Everything I was looking at reported about 30-40% of Russian food being imported making me suspicious of both Martin and Terr’s extremes but the note on the focus of imports is even more interesting.

Only $9bn of their $43bn of imports are impacted by the sanctions. As the article JohnT himself linked, it primarily affects things like French cheeses that can’t be easily replaced. You realize “40% imported” isn’t the same as “40% now affected by the Russian import ban.” The import ban affects the U.S., Canada, the EU, and Australia I believe. But not China, New Zealand, Brazil, or many other major agricultural countries that Russia does business with.

[CarnalK]

Of course I do. But you made the flat assertion that “most food consumed in Russia is grown in Russia” without an actual number. I guess “most” covers everything from 51-99%, but I thought you were implying higher than 60. And while you picked out a couple of quotes to say that only the french brie eating urban elites will be affected, i have a feeling pork prices for one will be affected by this import ban.

[Nobody]

@BrainGlutton

Why does Russia need import those things anyway? Doesn’t it have plenty of farmland and pasture?

Interesting question, and searching for an answer proves difficult.

If I had to hazard a guess, it’s probably because the infrastructure hasn’t been funded properly. They probably need new buildings and equipment. New barns, new combines, new milking machines, new greenhouses, etc… That’s about the only thing I can think of.

[Terr]

@Nobody

If I had to hazard a guess, it’s probably because the infrastructure hasn’t been funded properly. They probably need new buildings and equipment. New barns, new combines, new milking machines, new greenhouses, etc… That’s about the only thing I can think of.

… and MUCH less vodka. And probably different farmers. Maybe import them from somewhere.

[Voyager]

@Martin_Hyde

Only $9bn of their $43bn of imports are impacted by the sanctions. As the article JohnT himself linked, it primarily affects things like French cheeses that can’t be easily replaced. You realize “40% imported” isn’t the same as “40% now affected by the Russian import ban.” The import ban affects the U.S., Canada, the EU, and Australia I believe. But not China, New Zealand, Brazil, or many other major agricultural countries that Russia does business with.

John T’s FAO link show just under $30 billion in imports in 2010, so $9 billion is almost a third of that. Cheese is just over a billion, so cutting out fancy cheeses is not all that is happening. Not to mention that small changes to supply can have major impacts to prices.

And let’s just say that the credibility of a Russian state pollster on how the sanctions won’t matter is somewhat in question. I’m sure that the state position is that the only people the sanctions will hurt are the rich who the masses probably hate anyway.

[MrDibble]

@JohnT

This is not correct. The four largest categories of food imported by Russia are:

1. Bovine Meat
2. Beverages
3. Pigs Meat
4. Milk
   […]
   Therefore, Russia is importing basic staples, not the higher cost, value-added products that the US imports.

Despite what Westerners seem to think, meat is not a staple food. You know this, you quoted the same article - where does it list meat (other than fish)?