# Has Susan Collins destroyed her chances in 2020? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 18, 2018, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175 "2018-10-18T21:35:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/21 "2018-10-19T00:58:07Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You know that, aside from Kavanaugh and Ford, there were at least three other people alleged to have been at the party, and that one of those was alleged to have been in the room when the assault happened, right? Do you think their memories / lack thereof might have had an effect on Collins’ opinion? Are you referring to the alleged accomplice or the woman who said she didn’t see it but agreed it probably did happen? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/22 "2018-10-19T00:58:31Z")
I had never heard of Collins having any presidential aspirations to begin with. As for 2020, the anger over the Kav vote will have long since been replaced by something else. Two years is a long time for other things to happen. Besides - Dems were always going to run hard against Collins to begin with. It’s not like they would have declared a truce had she voted against Kav. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/23 "2018-10-19T01:06:47Z")
A gubernatorial run is the scuttlebutt. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/24 "2018-10-19T01:44:20Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > Are you referring to the alleged accomplice or the woman who said she didn’t see it but agreed it probably did happen? All of the above. Nobody remembered the party except Ford. “the woman who said she didn’t see it” couldn’t recall having _ever_ been to a party with Justice Kavanaugh. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/25 "2018-10-19T02:09:08Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > Lots of it…mostly in the form of pictures of dead presidents… > > [Site taking donations for Susan Collins’ challenger crashed from overload](https://www.businessinsider.com/site-taking-donations-for-senator-collins-opponent-overwhelmed-2018-10) All that proves is that the people who would never have voted for her anyway are really fired up. It says nothing about overall public opinion. And in the age of social media money doesn’t seem as important anymore, Trump was heavily outspent. Beto O’Rourke has raised more than three times as much money as Ted Cruz, and Cruz is currently beating him by about 9 points. As for the effect of the Kavanaugh vote, it looks to me like the effect has been to help Democrats in House races they were already heavily favored to win, while helping Republicans running for Senate. After all, 60% of Americans said that Kavaugh should have been confirmed if the final FBI report turned up nothing new. I imagine those numbers were much lower in heavily blue states, which means they were even higher in places like Maine - which is probably why Collins voted the way she did. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/26 "2018-10-19T02:25:37Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > As for 2020, the anger over the Kav vote will have long since been replaced by something else. Two years is a long time for other things to happen. Why in the world would you assume that? Kavenaugh will still be on the Court, barring something happening to him. Unless she does something so much worse that the Kavenaugh thing that this doesn’t matter, there is absolutely no way her opponents aren’t going to use that against her. Warren’s deal with Native American ancestry was first brought to light in 2012 and happened well before then. She had already stopped. Yet it was a big deal 2016, and it’s expected to be a big deal in 2020. And it’s not anywhere near as bad. I’m not even sure she survives a primary challenge, if her challenger is willing to say that she was wrong to confirm Kavanaugh and hammer on her not believing rape victims. And that’s without factoring in the likelihood that Kavenaugh will screw over our country in Supreme Court decisions in those two years. If discrimination laws, same sex marriage, or abortion rights are in jeopardy, it will be more than Collins under fire for approving him. Possibly even worse if he’s on the wrong side of anything rape or sexual harassment related, since that’ll hit both sides. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/27 "2018-10-19T03:10:36Z")
I’d don’t see how Collins ever had serious plans to run for President in 2020 (assuming Trump is still running). All signs are that Trump is planning on seeking re-election. So another Republican would have to challenge an incumbent President from their own party. I’m not saying that’s impossible. But you don’t challenge your own party’s candidate from the center. You challenge somebody in your party who you feel has gone too far towards the center. For Republicans that means you portray yourself as being the conservative alternative to the President (Ronald Reagan challenging Ford in 1976). For Democrats, you portray yourself as the liberal alternative to the President (Ted Kennedy challenging Carter in 1980). ---
**Author:** ![zoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zoid/32/336_2.png) [@zoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoid)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/28 "2018-10-19T03:59:06Z")
The only way Trump doesn’t get the 2020 nomination is if he either dies or decides he’s done with the hassle of being POTUS. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/29 "2018-10-19T04:14:10Z")
> [@zoid](#): > > The only way Trump doesn’t get the 2020 nomination is if he either dies or decides he’s done with the hassle of being POTUS. [Well, we’ll see.](https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/17/politics/muellers-quiet-period-has-not-been-very-quiet/index.html) Stranger ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/30 "2018-10-19T04:14:21Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > Are you referring to the alleged accomplice or the woman who said she didn’t see it but agreed it probably did happen? Note said woman based this on other behaviors she had observed, and her own sexual harassment (which, admittedly, is less severe than attempted rape). There is also a third woman who said they did similar stuff in college. And then, the least reliable being a woman who said her daughter saw him pinning down his girlfriend (the daughter’s friend) at a bar. I know your point was just that the only other witness who said it didn’t happen was an alleged accomplice, but I thought this might open up arguments that the women who aren’t there aren’t important. They are, for establishing a pattern of behavior. And, so that isn’t the end, I’ll also note that said alleged accomplice tried to run away and hide to avoid being asked to testify, and then still didn’t testify to avoid pressing questions. The credibility of the “witness” is basically nil. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/31 "2018-10-19T04:16:59Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > [Well, we’ll see.](https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/17/politics/muellers-quiet-period-has-not-been-very-quiet/index.html) > > Stranger I dunno. He’s cutting it really close. Even if the actual case isn’t finished, he needs to get stuff out there soon. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/32 "2018-10-19T04:17:34Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > And, so that isn’t the end, I’ll also note that said alleged accomplice tried to run away and hide to avoid being asked to testify, and then still didn’t testify to avoid pressing questions. The credibility of the “witness” is basically nil. “Mark Judge is neither a real judge, nor has he received asshatism’s highest honor.” Stranger ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/33 "2018-10-19T07:17:28Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > All of the above. Nobody remembered the party except Ford. “the woman who said she didn’t see it” couldn’t recall having _ever_ been to a party with Justice Kavanaugh. So is Ford a lying bitch or just a foolish little woman? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/34 "2018-10-19T07:36:41Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > So is Ford a lying bitch or just a foolish little woman? 1. People remember very few things which happened 35 years ago. So other people not remembering is not at all surprising. 2. If you have been the victim of an attempted rape you remember it–no matter how many decades ago it was. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/35 "2018-10-19T13:58:57Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > 1. People remember very few things which happened 35 years ago. So other people not remembering is not at all surprising. > > 2. If you have been the victim of an attempted rape you remember it–no matter how many decades ago it was. What? You mean people don’t remember when something doesn’t happen to them _personally_, three decades later? Get out. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/36 "2018-10-19T16:27:49Z")
Collins is one of the best politicians in the country. She won her last election by a 37 percentage points. She got reelected in a landslide in a year that Obama carried the state by 17 points. She is likely to win reelection if she wants it. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/37 "2018-10-19T16:35:38Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > Collins is one of the best politicians in the country. She won her last election by a 37 percentage points. She got reelected in a landslide in a year that Obama carried the state by 17 points. > She is likely to win reelection if she wants it. I’m not sure about that. By 2020, the anti-Trump tide will be even stronger than it is now. And we’ve seen Republicans lose races lately in regions Trump carried by twenty or more points. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/38 "2018-10-19T17:06:44Z")
I don’t live in Maine full time, but I do spend a lot of time there, and I haven’t noticed a lot of anti-Collins rhetoric over this. From what I know about Mainers (and New Englanders in general) is that they don’t like the “out of towners” telling them how they should think. And I think it’s seems initially like a lot of people are trying to tell the good people of Maine how they should vote, and that won’t work out all that well. And I agree in political years, 2020 is a long way off, and more Americans can’t name two Supreme Court justices let alone are they going to be all worked up about this. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/39 "2018-10-19T19:11:16Z")
Literally 100 things will probably happen between now and then that will make Kavanaugh seem like a quaint distant memory. A Trump year is like a dog year. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2018, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175/40 "2018-10-19T19:30:49Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Literally 100 things will probably happen between now and then that will make Kavanaugh seem like a quaint distant memory. A Trump year is like a dog year. Well, maybe. But the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings were such a blatant act of corruption in plain sight, and at a time when the issue of sexual assault and women being ignored or dismissed in their claims of harassment that I think Kavanaugh in particular is going to stick in many peoples’ minds for a long time, and especially if he does have a chance to weigh in on a reevaluation of _Roe v. Wade_ or other cases involving womens’ rights. I think confirming Kavanaugh in a “Hail Mary” pass without any real investigation or the claims against him (the risable FBI background check of which results were not publicly released notwithstanding) instead of selecting a less controversial conservative candidate was a short-sighted action on the part of the GOP to appease Trump that will have an impact beyond the upcoming mid-term elections. Whether it will turn out to be longer lasting than the lashback that followed Anita Hill’s abominable treatment has yet to be seen, but unlike in 1991 women and people offended by the cultural maltreatment of women have a media presence independent of what the news media decides to focus upon, and hopefully can sustain attention on the chronic problem of abuse and assault. Stranger [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-susan-collins-destroyed-her-chances-in-2020/823175.md?page=3)