# Has The Administration Lurched Into A Way Out Of Iraq? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 21, 2006, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442 "2006-02-21T05:03:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/21 "2006-02-21T18:02:42Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Look, Bush is not going to declare victory and leave. He doesn’t care about the political consequences of the war. He may not, but his party does. I don’t buy into this mythos that Bush “stands up for what he believes in.” I think, like all intellectually incurious people, he’s highly manipulable, to the degree that he can even be led to think he’s “standing up for what he believes in” by pulling out of Iraq. It’s almost more a question of what Rove _et al._ think is the best strategy – which may mean staying the course, or bailing. I personally think they’ll opt for the latter. I don’t see a small-scale drawdown as offering much benefit to anyone. ---
**Author:** ![XaMcQ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/f9ae1b/32.png) [@XaMcQ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XaMcQ)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/22 "2006-02-21T18:38:08Z")
> [@Digital Stimulus](#): > > I don’t really see how this could be seen as any more than a scape-goating for failed policies. Better, IMHO, to just say they’re tired of wasting US soldiers’ lives. You could also see it as scape-goating to get out of an unpopular war during an election year. I’ve been predicting for nearly two years that the situation was going to go down the flusher and we were going to slink out and blame the Iraqis for it. If by 2010 the ‘official’ story isn’t ‘We tried our best to give them freedom but they were just too backwards and barbaric’, I will publicly apologize and kiss the rosy bottom of the first Bush supporter to bring it up. Of course we’ll leave sufficient troops in place to guard the oil. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/23 "2006-02-21T19:08:33Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Look, Bush is not going to declare victory and leave. He doesn’t care about the political consequences of the war. This is absurd. The consistent message from Republicans in the last election, was they were doing a better job protecting America, and would do a better job in the future. Iraq was a central theme in that message, and the biggest stick they used to beat on Democrats. Admitting they failed in Iraq would be the exact same as saying, “We suck, vote for the Democrats.” Bush, and the Republicans, would never, ever do that in a million years. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/24 "2006-02-21T19:12:11Z")
> [@Sal Ammoniac](#): > > He may not, but his party does. I don’t buy into this mythos that Bush “stands up for what he believes in.” I think, like all intellectually incurious people, he’s highly manipulable, to the degree that he can even be led to think he’s “standing up for what he believes in” by pulling out of Iraq. It’s almost more a question of what Rove _et al._ think is the best strategy – which may mean staying the course, or bailing. I personally think they’ll opt for the latter. I don’t see a small-scale drawdown as offering much benefit to anyone. That doesn’t make sense. The war is very unpopular. The expedient thing to do would be cut and run, at least by the end of the year. But I’ll tell you what… give me some detail about how you think this is going to play out and then let’s place a little wager. You’re profoundly wrong if you don’t think Bush doesn’t believe in what he’s doing. It’s a false dichotomy that he can’t believe it in his heart of hearts and still exploit shamelessly for political purposes when it suits him. You have to look at the theory that best explains the facts, and that theory is that Bush firmly believes he has set in motion a long term plan to reshape the Middle East. I’m jsut amazed at how many “we’re finally going to cut and run” predictions peopel are willing to buy into before they consider that cutting and running isn’t an option. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/25 "2006-02-21T19:31:32Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > You have to look at the theory that best explains the facts, and that theory is that Bush firmly believes he has set in motion a long term plan to reshape the Middle East. I’m jsut amazed at how many “we’re finally going to cut and run” predictions peopel are willing to buy into before they consider that cutting and running isn’t an option. And if it doesn’t get better? If it NEVER gets better? If “quality” Iraqi troops turn out to be completely unreliable? Have we turned the corner again? How many times has it been, now? Then what, John? You seem to be quite certain that victory is the only possible outcome. -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/26 "2006-02-21T19:38:07Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > You have to look at the theory that best explains the facts, and that theory is that Bush firmly believes he has set in motion a long term plan to reshape the Middle East. I’m jsut amazed at how many “we’re finally going to cut and run” predictions peopel are willing to buy into before they consider that cutting and running isn’t an option. But is staying indefinitely an option? As I said before, Iraq has hit basically all the milestones that were used to justify continued American presence. Even people who were basically anti-war were saying, “We should at least stay until they elect a government.” Well, they had the election, and they’re putting the government together – with difficulty, of course, which is a symptom of the larger problem. But at this point our staying there seriously begs the question of what we’re waiting for. There has to be some metric that says, “Now we’re done, now we can come home.” Absent that metric, it feels like we’re staying just to be staying. Or are you arguing that Khalilzad is talking out of school, and that what he’s saying doesn’t reflect anyone’s view but his own? And by the way, I’m not claiming that Bush doesn’t believe in what he’s doing. I would claim that he doesn’t _know_ what it is he’s doing. Look at how the rationales for the war – each of which he has enunciated with apparent sincerity – have wiggled about over the last three years. ---
**Author:** ![quadruple\_u](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/c89c15/32.png) [@quadruple\_u](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/quadruple_u)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/27 "2006-02-21T20:25:37Z")
> [@Sevastopol](#): > > ‘Free and democratic Iraq, able to autonomously select their own independent government, without a care in the world for any external pressure.’ > > I suppose there are still a few myths some people cling to, enabling them to argue that the US administration has some good and noble intentions in Iraq, however slight and ephemeral they may be. Because, dammit people want to believe they are on the side of righteousness. > > But, baby, the bankbalance is zero. Eventually the myth of ‘democratize Iraq’ had to be torn down, lest the administration break faith with its support base. > > So, does the US waving a cross finger at Iraqi politicians offer it a face-saving out? A way out with some credit? The bankbalance is zero and no growth showing. I don’t understand this post. What is the ‘bankbalance’. Also, the Bush administration has “(broken) faith with its support base” on almost a daily basis. The support base doesn’t seem to mind. Why would they start now? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/28 "2006-02-21T20:28:24Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > …I don’t believe there is any way the Bushies will risk destabalizing Iraq any more than it already is or allowing it to devolve into civil war. How about if they can blame it on us? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/29 "2006-02-21T20:35:59Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > How about if they can blame it on us? **Lucy**! Hi! Who do you mean by “us?” Do you mean you and me or do you mean leftist rabble rousers in general or do you mean something else? If past history is a guide, they will blame the victims first. If it really comes right down to it, they will blame the Iraqis themselves as ungrateful, immature children who insisted on starting a war despite the best efforts and long suffering good will of the Neocons. If that doesn’t work, they’ll blame al Qaeda. If that doesn’t work they’ll blame Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/30 "2006-02-21T20:46:19Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Don’t you think it’s just a little too convenient that you’ve got an explanation for whichever way this turns out? Heads you win, tails they lose. > > Look, Bush is not going to declare victory and leave. He doesn’t care about the political consequences of the war. Yes, I suspect we will start drawing down troops sometime this summer, and that we’ll be at around 100k by years end. But we’ll still be up to our necks in this thing right through the Congressional elections. > > How many times has someone posted a similar OP in this forum, claiming they’ve finally figured out how Bush is going to save face and cut his loses? Ain’t gonna happen. Possibly we will begin to see more news accounts like this [lead story in the 21 Feb. print edition of the _Los Angeles Times_.](http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-deathsquad21feb21,0,6612561.story?coll=la-headlines-world) News releases of this type would prepare the public for the announcement that the Iraqi government can’t be trusted to form a government of ]i]all\* the people and we just can’t support any other type. So goodbye. > [@](#): > > A 1,500-member Iraqi police force with close ties to Shiite militia groups has emerged as a focus of investigations into suspected death squads working within the country’s Interior Ministry. > > Iraq’s national highway patrol was established largely to stave off insurgent attacks on roadways. But U.S. military officials, interviewed over the last several days, say they suspect the patrol of being deeply involved in illegal detentions, torture and extrajudicial killings. > > The officials said that in recent months the U.S. has withdrawn financial and advisory support from the patrol in an effort to distance the American training effort from what they perceived to be a renegade force. > > “We don’t train them, we don’t give them equipment, we don’t conduct site visits over there. They are just bad, criminal people,” said a high-ranking U.S. military officer who advises the Interior Ministry. The officer was one of three who each spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they wanted to maintain relationships with Iraqi police officials and avoid retaliation by U.S. military superiors. As to the heads I win, tails you lost aspect, isn’t that the whole idea in having a low ranking official float the story of a possible future change in plans? Sort of a finger to the wind. If the idea is a dud the official can easily be punished by being slapped down and retired on full pension, if it isn’t a dud it can be developed further. And yes, other posts have speculated on this idea, and my OP is also speculation. I thought that was clear from the way I framed the question. However, this is the first time that I know of that an Executive Depatrment official has talked about a possible withdrawal for any other reason than that we leave behind a stable Iraq with a functioning government having adequate security forces in place. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/31 "2006-02-21T21:11:24Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > If past history is a guide, they will blame the victims first. “See, Dick Whittington was supposed to announce himself before leaving the Green Zone, but he didn’t, so look what happened.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/32 "2006-02-21T21:20:02Z")
> [@Merijeek](#): > > And if it doesn’t get better? If it NEVER gets better? If “quality” Iraqi troops turn out to be completely unreliable? > > Have we turned the corner again? How many times has it been, now? It doesn’t have to get better. It just has to not get a lot worse. And remember, Bush’s term is up in less than 3 years. That may seem like a long time, but we’ve already spent that much time in Iraq as it is. > [@](#): > > Then what, John? You seem to be quite certain that victory is the only possible outcome. Nope. You’re reading too much into my post. Just because I think I can explain Bush’s motives doesn’t mean that I agree with them. In fact, I do not. Too many people on this board want so badly for Bush to admit that he made a mistake that they confuse their own desires with what is actually going to happen. > [@David Simmons](#): > > Possibly we will begin to see more news accounts like this lead story in the 21 Feb. print edition of the Los Angeles Times. News releases of this type would prepare the public for the announcement that the Iraqi government can’t be trusted to form a government of ]i]all\* the people and we just can’t support any other type. So goodbye. Highly unlikely. We’re still heavily invested in the ISF (Iraqi Security Forces), and are making some (though painfully slow) progress. We don’t have to defeat the insurgency to declare victory and leave, we just have to make sure that the ISF is sufficiently strong that the insurgency won’t defeat them. > [@](#): > > As to the heads I win, tails you lost aspect, isn’t that the whole idea in having a low ranking official float the story of a possible future change in plans? Sort of a finger to the wind. If the idea is a dud the official can easily be punished by being slapped down and retired on full pension, if it isn’t a dud it can be developed further. But he’s not floating a policy initiative to the American people or Congress, he’s just tryign to play hardball with the sectarian forces trying to control the political landscape in Iraq. > [@](#): > > And yes, other posts have speculated on this idea, and my OP is also speculation. I thought that was clear from the way I framed the question. However, this is the first time that I know of that an Executive Depatrment official has talked about a possible withdrawal for any other reason than that we leave behind a stable Iraq with a functioning government having adequate security forces in place This isn’t talk about withdrawl. It’s talk of holding back some support with, I suspect, the implication that the support will be given to others. Bush is not going to throw in the towel, even if that is the best thing to do. He’ll leave that option up to his successor. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/33 "2006-02-21T22:12:23Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Bush is not going to throw in the towel, even if that is the best thing to do. He’ll leave that option up to his successor. What a grim prospect. Nearly three more years of this and then a couple while the successor figures out how to get out without appearing to have failed in following such a brilliant leader. No wonder middle level army officers are leaving the service in large numbers. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/34 "2006-02-21T22:56:05Z")
> [@David Simmons](#): > > What a grim prospect. Nearly three more years of this and then a couple while the successor figures out how to get out without appearing to have failed in following such a brilliant leader. That was an overly cynical post on my part, because I do think Bush believes he can create a stable Iraq, given enough time. But yes, it does leave open the distinct possibility that he’s wrong, and that his successor will have to clean up after him. What they really need to do is capture Zarqawi, break up his jihadists, and cut a deal with the Sunni insurgents. ---
**Author:** ![Merijeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f05b48/32.png) [@Merijeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merijeek)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2006, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/35 "2006-02-21T22:58:05Z")
> [@David Simmons](#): > > No wonder middle level army officers are leaving the service in large numbers. That’s the scent of victory, my friend! We’re winning, can’t you tell? -Joe ---
**Author:** ![Spavined\_Gelding](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@Spavined\_Gelding](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spavined_Gelding)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2006, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/36 "2006-02-22T01:38:08Z")
On the theory that a person cannot be cynical enough when confronting big power politics (and all must concede that big power politics is just what we have here), it seems to me that this is simple blather designed to pressure and manipulate the Iraqis into carrying the United States’ water. This Administration has too much prestige, credibility, blood and treasure invested in the vision of a stable Iraqi state and oil supply to walk away. There has been talk about permanent American bases in Iraq. We appear to be building an enormous self contained and self supporting embassy compound. The Iraqis are not stupid. They see, maybe better than anyone, that the US will suffer an enormous black eye and hand the Jahadists gain a tremendous victory if the US pulls its financial and military support for the rump government it has set up under its protection. We have walked ourselves into a quagmire from which we cannot extract ourselves without very painful loss of face and power. The situation is all the worse because perfectly rational, fair minded and patriotic people warned against precisely this outcome when the President and his people, the Cheneys and the Rumsfelts and the Wolfowitzs and the Pearls, were hell bent on going into Iraq on the cheap and with precious little international support. All we had going for us was the Big Stick of US military superiority. Now we have demonstrated that The Big Stick is woefully inadequate and we have squandered out moral and political advantage. A couple metaphors come to mind, Tar Babies, Riding Tigers, Swamps and Alligators, Charles I had his Cromwell, Lyndon Johnson his Uncle Ho and George Bush … let George Bush profit by their example. A little hyperbolic, perhaps, but arguably justified in the particular circumstances. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2006, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/37 "2006-02-22T02:09:47Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > What they really need to do is capture Zarqawi, break up his jihadists, and cut a deal with the Sunni insurgents. Golly, John, is that all? I know I’ll sleep better tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2006, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/38 "2006-02-22T02:13:46Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > > [@tschild](#): > > > > Wouldn’t it be a plausible strategy for them to gradually give up on Iraq, and concentrate on establishing a ‘stabbed in the back’ narrative in the public consciousness? I have read a few pieces of commentary in the English-language press these last one or two years, blaming franceandgermany, this well-established entity-meme, for not pitching in enough. > > That would go along with what **Sal Ammoniac** described as “managing the problem through spin,” but I think any success they would have with that approach would be mixed at best. I think it’s something that only the shrinking choir would buy. And not even all of them – some of the neocon crowd are muttering that the administration has effectively stabbed **them** in the back through its ineptitude and/or failure to sink enough political capital into the cause. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2006, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/39 "2006-02-22T02:13:49Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Yes, I suspect we will start drawing down troops sometime this summer, and that we’ll be at around 100k by years end. But we’ll still be up to our necks in this thing right through the Congressional elections. I roughly agree with this, albeit for slightly different reasons. If we pull out fast, a civil war with set pieces breaks out. This would be politically unacceptable for the President. “Staying the course”, and keep the same troop levels in Iraq is unsustainable: our military isn’t large enough and recruitment efforts would be insufficient. Reality finally collides with the neocon’s imperial dreams. A draft is ruled out. A dramatic and imaginative increase in pay for grunts won’t happen. That leaves the “draw down and muddle through” option – call it anything but “cut and run”. Re the OP: I’d tune out the posturing and stick with an analysis of the fundamentals. One way or another, the US has to substitute in Iraqi troops. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2006, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442/40 "2006-02-22T02:33:30Z")
> [@Measure for Measure](#): > > Re the OP: I’d tune out the posturing and stick with an analysis of the fundamentals. One way or another, the US has to substitute in Iraqi troops. I agree, and I’m afraid that **John Mace** is right about GW’s determination not to let things fall completely apart on his watch. It seems to me that soon or late, the Iraqis are going to have to solve this mess that we have created as a result of what looks more and more like a case of extreme gullibility on the part of the public. That solution probably won’t be very pretty and contains the great danger of a wider mid-east war. I don’t think GW wants any part of having that on his hands and will do his damndest to “muddle through” as you say and leave the mess for his successor. I hope for a Democratic Congress and a Republican President next time around. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-administration-lurched-into-a-way-out-of-iraq/345442.md?page=3)