# Has the horse bolted on China's annexation of the East China Sea? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 15, 2015, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503 "2015-12-15T04:57:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 7:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/41 "2015-12-16T07:14:15Z")
> [@XT](#): > > (it’s one of the highest trade route areas on earth, with between $1-2 trillion dollars transiting the region each year…which puts into perspective WHY it’s something we care about and why China is so hot on making a claim there). I think that’s closer to **$5 trillion** … but, yeah. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 8:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/42 "2015-12-16T08:42:37Z")
> [@iLemming](#): > > Sidebar: > Is not the ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’ a loose analogy for this situation – a landmass close to a U.S. interest being militarised in a threatening manner? What if the Chinese started stationing nukes on those faux islands…?! 😕 They’d be able to Nuke the Philippines and Vietnam with a slightly shorter response time? Its nothing at all like the cuban missile crisis, talk about over dramatising. Yes if the US is serious the best response would be to provide enough equipment and backup to Japan, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines to push their own claims forward. Park some SeaBees units there for five years to help everyone else set up their own bases. Encourage all US allies to do their own freedom of navigation cruises through the claimed territory and let them know that the US has got their back. ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/43 "2015-12-16T09:30:00Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Its nothing at all like the cuban missile crisis, talk about over dramatising. Perhaps. But the rhetoric does seem to be ratcheting up… > [@](#): > > A Chinese state-owned newspaper has issued a strongly worded warning to Australia about a Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) surveillance plane carrying out “freedom of navigation” exercises over the South China Sea. > > The editorial in the Chinese language edition of The Global Times appears to warn Australia its planes could be shot down if such operations continue. > > […] The Global Times editorial, which was toned down in the English language version of the newspaper, said: “Australia should not count on being welcomed or accepted” when it is in air space around the disputed territories. > > “The Chinese people cannot understand why the Australian military would get involved, and to be honest, they have less patience to prevent a flare up,” the newspaper said. > > "Australian military planes better not regularly come to the South China Sea to ‘get involved’ , and especially don’t test China’s patience by flying close to China’s islands. > > “Everyone has always been careful, but **it would be a shame if one day a plane fell from the sky and it happened to be Australian.** ” [‘It would be shame if a plane fell from the sky’: China’s warning to RAAF (MSN AU)](http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/it-would-be-shame-if-a-plane-fell-from-the-sky-chinas-warning-to-raaf-over-south-china-sea-flights/ar-BBnCdEk?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=mailsignout) ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/44 "2015-12-16T11:53:29Z")
That’s standard bombastic crap from their official government mouthpieces. Its a game of chicken on both sides and yes a plane might get shot down, but I would think before then they’d scramble fighters to intercept, thats a step they haven’t taken yet on any of the Australia or US freedom of navigation flights / cruises. Its still nothing like the cuban missile crisis. a) theres no nuclear weapons involved b) it involves islands way outside the US sphere of influence far from US shores. If the US was to send nuclear missiles to Taiwan as an escalation, then THAT would be the cuban missile crisis, except the US would be the Soviet Union and China would be the US. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/45 "2015-12-16T12:51:46Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I’m unsure of what you think the bulk of the Chinese Navy (PLAN) is, but 30+ year old US naval vessels would do fine against them. While I’m confident that the U.S. can hold its own against the PLAN, they are much, much more capable than you are giving them credit for. I have no idea where you are getting your data from. To believe that an old FFG-7 class (then owned and operated by a third world Navy) can go toe to toe with a Lanzhou class DDG with VLS and a 125 missile range for example is ridiculous. It’s true an apples to oranges comparison and not in the direction you envision. We keep viewing China as a rational actor and any scenario that we throw at them, and it may not be the case. This entire thread seems to be predicated on the assumption that they know we’re bigger than they are so they won’t start any trouble. But what if they do? We have one third of our fleet at home, one third in the med/middle east and one third in the Pacific. They’ll have their entire fleet in their back yard under their air umbrella. So my point is with a tepid U.S. response to a terrorist act in Paris or to the use of chlorine gas by Assad, I’m unclear what the U.S. response would be over what many Americans feel is an odd exercise in a sea they’ve never heard of and couldn’t find on a map. But we’d have to respond to this because we’d have no choice. We just have to be prepared for that and not wave it away > [@XT](#): > > The Chinese themselves admit, at least in private, that the gap between their military and ours is 30-50 YEARS. Sure, on some very vertical things they have closed the gap, but overall? Interesting that you know what the Chinese admit in private. I’ll presume you’re privy to information from a high level government official because if you’re talking to a local street vendor I’m not sure what good that’s doing you. ---
**Author:** ![botsgotme](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@botsgotme](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/botsgotme)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/46 "2015-12-16T13:05:33Z")
The present Chinese government sees itself as the logical successor to the Chinese Empire; so this is quite logical…it is the same trilogy-Heaven, the “middle kingdom”, and the barbarians (us). So their actions are logical-they are reclaiming what was always theirs. The sooner we accept that, the sooner tranquility and order will return. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/47 "2015-12-16T13:06:08Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > So my point is with a tepid U.S. response to a terrorist act in Paris or to the use of chlorine gas by Assad, I’m unclear what the U.S. response would be over what many Americans feel is an odd exercise in a sea they’ve never heard of and couldn’t find on a map. But we’d have to respond to this because we’d have no choice. We just have to be prepared for that and not wave it away The Chinese military launching an attack on a US Navy vessel is entirely different from Middle East dictators doing what dictators do to their own people, or a terrorist attack in Europe (or even a terrorist attack in the US). The US public would be overwhelmingly in favor of a military response to an actual military attack. ---
**Author:** ![botsgotme](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/91b2a8/32.png) [@botsgotme](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/botsgotme)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/48 "2015-12-16T14:41:38Z")
I guess we have a problem-our new class of Littoral combat Ships appears to have a problem (engine breakdown). There seems to be something wrong with our bloody ships today. better not challend the Chinese with them just yet. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/49 "2015-12-16T14:56:14Z")
[QUOTE=spifflog] While I’m confident that the U.S. can hold its own against the PLAN, they are much, much more capable than you are giving them credit for. I have no idea where you are getting your data from. To believe that an old FFG-7 class (then owned and operated by a third world Navy) can go toe to toe with a Lanzhou class DDG with VLS and a 125 missile range for example is ridiculous. It’s true an apples to oranges comparison and not in the direction you envision. [/QUOTE] And if they had all modern warships in their OOB then you’d have a point…but, like everything the Chinese have, it’s a mixed bag, with a few capable modern systems and a load of old crap. And, of course, the actual point is that the Chinese aren’t going to fire on the ships regardless, at least not on ships flagged to US allies, since that would bring our own ships in…and while you might think that the Chinese PLAN can hold it’s own with the US (:dubious:), I don’t think that THEY believe that to be the case, and even if they did there are still too many downsides for them in such a course of action. So, again, I don’t see it as a ridiculous plan. Perhaps you feel that way because you think they are 10 feet tall with long curly brown hair or something, based on your assessment of them using only their most modern systems as the yard stick. > [@](#): > > We keep viewing China as a rational actor and any scenario that we throw at them, and it may not be the case. This entire thread seems to be predicated on the assumption that they know we’re bigger than they are so they won’t start any trouble. But what if they do? We have one third of our fleet at home, one third in the med/middle east and one third in the Pacific. They’ll have their entire fleet in their back yard under their air umbrella. That’s true. But 1/3 of our fleet is more than a match for the Chinese fleet. And they ARE a ration actor, at least wrt a shooting was with the US. Oh, the Chinese have some vertical systems that could hurt us, no doubt about that…in theory their sooper dooper carrier killer missiles and torpeados COULD do quite a lot, and they do have some relatively capable subs, but in the end if they tried anything it would be a lot of Chinese sailors and aviators dead along with Americans and probably every other major power in the region…and China would be on the losing end of the stick. So, military loss AND loss of face…something the CCP would avoid at all costs. That’s why in this instance they are a rational actor, as long as we don’t miscalculate the other side of the coin, which is potential loss of face if we were to paint them into a corner wrt the South China Sea and leave no out for them. > [@](#): > > So my point is with a tepid U.S. response to a terrorist act in Paris or to the use of chlorine gas by Assad, I’m unclear what the U.S. response would be over what many Americans feel is an odd exercise in a sea they’ve never heard of and couldn’t find on a map. But we’d have to respond to this because we’d have no choice. We just have to be prepared for that and not wave it away We’d have no choice, as you say. If China keeps pushing on this the tension will ratchet up with the other regional powers, and if they attempt to out and out assert sovereignty (along with economic exclusion zones and such) the US will have to respond. That’s why we ARE responding already, but sending ships and planes into the region, working with the other regional powers, attempting to secure new basing rights in the region, etc etc. We aren’t just sitting around with our thumbs up our collective asses and waiting to see what will happen, we are involved at several different levels. When Xi recently came to the US, this was one of the official things Obama and he (and presumably people at other levels) talked about. So, even if the majority of the American people don’t have a clue what this is about or why we should care the government is already taking steps. > [@](#): > > Interesting that you know what the Chinese admit in private. I’ll presume you’re privy to information from a high level government official because if you’re talking to a local street vendor I’m not sure what good that’s doing you. It came out in one of Snowdon’s state department releases (which tidbit I got off of one of the China Uncensored videos I’ve linked to in these discussions in the past). Now, whether you believe any of that is up to you, but I didn’t just pull it out of my ass. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Meurglys](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/258eb7/32.png) [@Meurglys](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meurglys)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2015, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/50 "2015-12-16T15:57:52Z")
Nothing to add except a [link to a BBC page](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35031313) about a recent civilian attempt to fly over or near the islands by a journalist. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2015, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/51 "2015-12-17T10:42:14Z")
As that link confirms, so far all they do is bark orders to leave the area. They have not yet tried to intercept these flights with fighters and escort them from the area. Until they do, everyone should keep ignoring them. ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2016, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/52 "2016-02-17T10:09:33Z")
> [@](#): > > \*South China Sea: New Chinese missile base on disputed island sparks fresh militarisation warnings[…] > > The deployment of the missiles on Woody Island, part of the Paracel Islands, ratcheted up tensions in the region and prompted renewed warnings against militarisation, despite pleas from US President Barack Obama for restraint[…] > > Taiwanese defence ministry spokesman Major General David Lo said no other details of the deployment could be disclosed and added: “Interested parties should work together to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea region and refrain from taking any unilateral measures that would increase tensions.” > > A US defence official also confirmed the “apparent deployment” of the missiles, which were first reported by Fox News\* [ABC (AU)](http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-17/china-deploys-surface-to-air-missiles-in-south-china-sea/7176842) Not long now… ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2016, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/53 "2016-02-17T21:29:49Z")
Until you do more than post a link? Until you start yet another thread about China being about to start WW3? Until this thread gets moved to MPSIMS? ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2016, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/54 "2016-02-17T22:11:47Z")
> [@](#): > > \ ***U.S. expects ‘very serious’ talks with China after missile reports** > > U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Wednesday the United States expects to have “very serious” talks with China about militarization of the South China Sea after reports that Beijing deployed advanced surface-to-air missiles to a disputed island. > > Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said the missile batteries had been set up on Woody Island in the Paracels chain, which has been under Chinese control for decades but also is claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam[…]\* [Reuters](http://www.reuters.com/article/southchinasea-china-missiles-idUSKCN0VP2UT) “_President Xi stood in the Rose Garden and ensured us that no militarization of the East China Sea would take place…_” -John Kerry ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2016, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/55 "2016-02-18T04:13:22Z")
For rumination: _Year of the Monkey_ • **ambitious** • **adventurous** • …but **irritable** ►[pic related](https://i.imgur.com/9oxeUde.jpg) • ‘Chinese Missile Crisis’ • Surface-to- **AIR** missiles (\*boldfaced and capitalised for emphasis) • Xi lied, point blank, to the White House, only weeks ago, to keep the ECS de-militarized ►Continuing to view China (and Asia) through a Western prism, will lead to the fall of the U.S. hegemony… if not WW3. • Chinese false economy ‘bubble’ deflating and certainly significantly worse than the massaged figures those getting been getting rich quick from, are assuring us • What goes up meteorically, will come down, _meteorically_ • GFC was never “over” – it’s been in effect since 9/11 ►Even “common core” could do this remedial math. • “ISIS” is distraction • NK’s “satellite” testing is no opportune coincidence • Japan’s re-militarisation has been made under direct instruction ►The die is cast and the stage is set. The only question is now: **what will the widely perceived ‘impotent’ West’s response be?** ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2016, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/57 "2016-02-18T04:51:25Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > Until you do more than post a link? > > Until you start yet another thread about China being about to start WW3? > > Until this thread gets moved to MPSIMS? Since this is GD, I’m take all three. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2016, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/58 "2016-02-18T05:07:27Z")
This thread is a bit alarmist for two reasons. First China has placed missiles at Woody island in the Paracel islands, not in the Spratleys. The Paracel islands are much closer to China and China has a stronger claim to them. Secondly Vietnam has already militarized the south china sea by installing missiles on one of their islands. If China militarises Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratleys that will be a much bigger deal. Most of the controversy is over China building artificial islands in the Spratleys, not over the Paracels, which are real natural islands and have been held by China for many years. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2016, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/59 "2016-02-18T05:13:16Z")
The thread **China deploy missile battery in East China Sea** has been merged with this one. iLemming, do not start multiple threads on what is basially the same topic within a few days of each other. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2016, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/60 "2016-02-18T05:16:36Z")
> [@thelmaallen](#): > > The thread is more supporting and getting information about china deploy missile battery. It is really good. If the only thing you have to say on any topic is “this thread is really good,” then simply refrain from posting. This forum is for actual discussion. You have posted only three times and have repeated the same behavior each time. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![iLemming](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/90db22/32.png) [@iLemming](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iLemming)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503/61 "2016-02-24T08:09:52Z")
> [@](#): > > \ ***China has sent fighter jets to a disputed island in the South China Sea, in a move that further ratchets up tensions over a maritime area claimed by six nations.** > > US officials said a Chinese Shenyang J-11 and a Xian JH-7 warplane were seen on Woody Island in the Paracel Archipelago in recent days, the same island where China last week deployed surface-to-air missiles. > > The escalation in China’s militarisation is sending an “uncompromising” message to the US, Dr Euan Graham from the Lowy Institute in Sydney said, as high-level talks are held between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi […]\* [ABC (AU)](http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-24/china-sends-fighter-jets-to-disputed-woody-island/7196786) Seems the Chinese are becoming increasingly emboldened with each caucus Trump wins… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-horse-bolted-on-chinas-annexation-of-the-east-china-sea/740503.md?page=4)