# Has the U.S. orchestrated a 'decent interval' in Afghanistan? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 14, 2015, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627 "2015-10-14T04:00:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/1 "2015-10-14T04:00:00Z")
Background Like with South Vietnam in 1973, the US signed the Paris peace accords, and lent support to the South Vietnamese military in aid and more importantly, air support. Kissinger likened this to a _‘decent interval’_ period in which the US got out without loss of face, but a few years later South Vietnam collapsed. Now I get the same kind of vibe from what’s going on in Afghanistan, it appears, due to the recent performance of the Afghan military in Kunduz, that it was an elaborate ruse to fool the US public into thinking we were making progress, which would enable the US to leave Afghanistan without so much loss of face. Is it a ruse? I ask because if the Afghan military cannot defend a population of around 300,000 people, what hope does that bring to the rest of the country? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/2 "2015-10-14T04:12:01Z")
What do you mean, “ruse?” That the Taliban who took Kanduz and then fled were fakes? ---
**Author:** ![Knowed\_Out](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/knowed_out/32/7380_2.png) [@Knowed\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knowed_Out)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/3 "2015-10-14T04:43:36Z")
The US had to decide whether to occupy Afghanistan and police it. It didn’t work so well for the Russians, so they tried arming and training the ones who said they were our allies. That didn’t work either. It’s a principle of [Hanlon’s Razor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor): Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence. See, it’s easy to explain mishaps by thinking it was somebody’s malevolent plan all along. What the US was trying to do was build the means for Afghanistan to be able to take care of its own problems, as opposed to occupying the country and wasting money and lives trying to maintain order. Other countries don’t like it when we do that. US citizens don’t like it either. So, we left the inmates in charge of the asylum, because it was the lesser of two evils. There was no great ruse. Who would benefit from it? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/4 "2015-10-14T05:04:09Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > What do you mean, “ruse?” That the Taliban who took Kanduz and then fled were fakes? I mean the training and effectiveness of the Afghan security forces. Not in the terms of training being a ruse, I mean that they weren’t trained up-to the standards of fighting and containing the Taliban on their own. > [@](#): > > **Knowed Out** > There was no great ruse. Who would benefit from it? As with South Vietnam, it would benefit the US by allowing it to withdraw without too much loss of face and laying most of the blame on the Afghan government. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/5 "2015-10-14T05:06:33Z")
> [@Knowed\_Out](#): > > Who would benefit from it? The industrial military complex?.. …I’ve said too much! \<\\> ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/6 "2015-10-14T05:16:20Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I mean the training and effectiveness of the Afghan security forces. Not in the terms of training being a ruse, I mean that they weren’t trained up-to the standards of fighting and containing the Taliban on their own. I still have no damned idea what you’re talking about. Let’s start at the beginning: a ruse is an action intended to deceive someone. I’m clear that you think the American people are being fooled, but I’m not clear on what the action is. Are you saying that the ANA didn’t retake Kanduz, as if U.S. forces did it and gave credit to the ANA? Are you saying that the U.S. forces previously made everyone think the ANA was incompetent, but that was untrue and they are actually quite competent? Are you saying that Kanduz was not actually taken over by the Taliban at all, and so the whole battle was fake? Or something else I am missing? Please spell it out for me. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/7 "2015-10-14T05:23:27Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Background > Like with South Vietnam in 1973, the US signed the Paris peace accords, and lent support to the South Vietnamese military in aid and more importantly, air support. Kissinger likened this to a _‘decent interval’_ period in which the US got out without loss of face, but a few years later South Vietnam collapsed. It’s exactly that. But also note the collapse will take place on someone else’s presidential shift. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/8 "2015-10-14T05:36:22Z")
Well, if America wants the Taliban as new friends alongside to fight ISIS — “_Pals, Partners ! Pals until Hell freezes !_” — you have to let them and you save a little face. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/9 "2015-10-14T06:05:58Z")
The big difference between Afghanistan and Vietnam is that we can’t just accept defeat. Accepting defeat in Vietnam meant that Vietnam became Communist. Accepting defeat in Afghanistan means more attacks on the US. That’s why we were there in the first place. It was the first war in response to a direct attack on the US since WWII. Those aren’t the kind of wars you can just get tired of and walk away from. The most recent news is that the administration is resigned to not being able to withdraw troops during the current President’s term: > **[Obama Is Rethinking Pullout in Afghanistan, Officials Say (Published 2015)](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/world/asia/obama-is-rethinking-pullout-in-afghanistan-officials-say.html?src=me&_r=0)** > > Leaving more than a small force to protect the embassy in Kabul would mean President Obama abandons his goal to bring home almost all American troops before leaving office. The war will take as long as it takes. There are no “decent intervals” in this one. Wherever the people who perpetrated 9/11 are, or who want to perpetrate new 9/11s, we will go and kill them. For the next 500 years if necessary. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/10 "2015-10-14T06:10:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The big difference between Afghanistan and Vietnam is that we can’t just accept defeat. Accepting defeat in Vietnam meant that Vietnam became Communist. Accepting defeat in Afghanistan means more attacks on the US. That’s why we were there in the first place. It was the first war in response to a direct attack on the US since WWII. Those aren’t the kind of wars you can just get tired of and walk away from. > > The most recent news is that the administration is resigned to not being able to withdraw troops during the current President’s term: > > [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/world/asia/obama-is-rethinking-pullout-in-afghanistan-officials-say.html?src=me&\_r=0](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/world/asia/obama-is-rethinking-pullout-in-afghanistan-officials-say.html?src=me&_r=0) > > The war will take as long as it takes. There are no “decent intervals” in this one. Wherever the people who perpetrated 9/11 are, or who want to perpetrate new 9/11s, we will go and kill them. For the next 500 years if necessary. Unlikely. There are so many “failed state” areas now that one more isn’t going to make much difference. Besides, the biggest vulnerability we (and especially Western Europe) have is Pakistan. Nothing is changing there. It’s hard to determine what plays out worse for us in terms of producing more terrorist attacks on the US-- allowing another “failed state” to arise, or the actions we have to take in order to prevent one. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/11 "2015-10-14T06:14:20Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I still have no damned idea what you’re talking about. > > Let’s start at the beginning: a ruse is an action intended to deceive someone. I’m clear that you think the American people are being fooled, but I’m not clear on what the action is. > > Are you saying that the ANA didn’t retake Kanduz, as if U.S. forces did it and gave credit to the ANA? Are you saying that the U.S. forces previously made everyone think the ANA was incompetent, but that was untrue and they are actually quite competent? Are you saying that Kanduz was not actually taken over by the Taliban at all, and so the whole battle was fake? Or something else I am missing? Please spell it out for me. I’m saying the US public is being fooled about the effectiveness of the Afghan security forces ability to protect their country, and that a decent interval, like the one you had in South Vietnam, from '73 to '75 has been orchestrated to save face. Much has been given upon the effectiveness of the Afghan security forces as one would expect, but it hasn’t played out, which leads me to believe that the guys who were partnered with Afghan units have been over emphasising their effectiveness in order to stick to a withdrawal timetable, which is exactly what happened with the ARVN in Vietnam. Now, a litmus test for Afghan security forces has been to protect the majority of the people from the Taliban, and they absolutely failed in this in regards to Kunduz, not only did they lose the city, but it was the first time in nearly 15 years that the Taliban has taken a major city, this being barely one year since the end of front-line combat operations by the US and its allies. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/12 "2015-10-14T06:16:07Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Besides, the biggest vulnerability we (and especially Western Europe) have is Pakistan. Actually, quite a lot has changed there since the December 16th school shooting. The Pakistani armed forces have actually been going after the TTP in the frontier areas, which is a very significant development. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/13 "2015-10-14T06:21:27Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Unlikely. There are so many “failed state” areas now that one more isn’t going to make much difference. Besides, the biggest vulnerability we (and especially Western Europe) have is Pakistan. Nothing is changing there. They do seem to have given up on making Afghanistan into a viable, functioning state. But as long as those who attacked us still have such a huge presence there, we have to be in the fight. We don’t have allies there that can do it for us. The difference between a nation like Afghanistan and the other states with an Al Qaeda problem is that there are actually local forces that can credibly fight them, enabling us to help out with drone strikes. Afghanistan not only lacks such forces, but could return to being Al Qaeda’s primary operating base again if we leave. So that’s simply not going to happen anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/14 "2015-10-14T06:27:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They do seem to have given up on making Afghanistan into a viable, functioning state. But as long as those who attacked us still have such a huge presence there, we have to be in the fight. We don’t have allies there that can do it for us. > > The difference between a nation like Afghanistan and the other states with an Al Qaeda problem is that there are actually local forces that can credibly fight them, enabling us to help out with drone strikes. Afghanistan not only lacks such forces, but could return to being Al Qaeda’s primary operating base again if we leave. So that’s simply not going to happen anytime soon. If AQ sets up training camps in Afghanistan again, I’m sure whoever is president (of the US) will bomb the shit out of them before they can do anything. We’re not existing Afghanistan as we did in Iraq. We’ll have a military presence there indefinitely. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/15 "2015-10-14T06:29:05Z")
You can’t beat Al Qaeda with bombing. We already tried that. It takes ground troops. Same with ISIS. It’s just that everywhere else, it doesn’t have to be us. In Afghanistan, it does. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/16 "2015-10-14T06:35:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You can’t beat Al Qaeda with bombing. We already tried that. It takes ground troops. Same with ISIS. It’s just that everywhere else, it doesn’t have to be us. In Afghanistan, it does. We can keep them out of Afghanistan with bombing. That is not to say that won’t pop up somewhere else, and if we need ground troops, we got enough Afghan forces who can fight alongside American Air support to do the trick. I don’t think the US is set up, militarily, to ensure a stable Afghan government that can actually govern the entire territory, but we can pick out the AQ targets, if necessary and not so much worry if women are treated poorly, if poppies are the main cash crop, or if local and other officials are corrupt as hell. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/17 "2015-10-14T06:37:02Z")
We can, but you need ground troops. We didn’t keep them out of Afghanistan pre-9/11 with cruise missiles. You simply can’t take and hold ground without troops. That’s as true today as it was in all the rest of human history. So until we have viable local forces that can fight them, it’s up to us. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/18 "2015-10-14T06:39:47Z")
Who’s to say that if the US left the Taliban would ever want Al Queda back again? They tried it once, and look what happened. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/19 "2015-10-14T06:52:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We can, but you need ground troops. We didn’t keep them out of Afghanistan pre-9/11 with cruise missiles. You simply can’t take and hold ground without troops. That’s as true today as it was in all the rest of human history. So until we have viable local forces that can fight them, it’s up to us. You are confusing the Taliban with AQ. AQ never controlled any territory in Afghanistan. A “training camp” is not territory. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2015, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627/20 "2015-10-14T06:57:19Z")
They were allied with the Taliban and the Taliban let them operate freely. There is no sign that the Taliban-Al Qaeda alliance is any less close than it was before. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-u-s-orchestrated-a-decent-interval-in-afghanistan/734627.md?page=2)