# Has the world actually been cooling since 2002? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 19, 2014, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728 "2014-02-19T19:32:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2014, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/221 "2014-02-24T14:44:53Z")
I’m asking everybody. In order to determine man-kind’s contribution to global warming, we must first establish what part of the total global warming is due to natural causes. Composition of the atmosphere is only one component to climate change, there’s a score of other components that need to be included, and we need to consider how all these components interact with each other. Does increasing temperatures drive more CO[sub]2[/sub] into the air, or does more CO[sub]2[/sub] drive up temperatures … specifically 10,000 years ago when all this started. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2014, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/222 "2014-02-24T15:10:25Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > What problem? Don’t say “the problem continues”, say what you think the problem is. Be concise, clear, state things. Do not use words like “it”, “that”, or “the problem” until after you state what you are speaking about. > > . What “problem” continues? Again, not acknowledging the mistakes you have made ITT and the other that is in GD only demonstrates to everyone else that no one should rely on your statements on this issue. Just a heads up. > [@FXMastermind](#): > > Wrong about WHAT sun spot charts? :rolleyes: **Kimstu** ’s post and mine were ignored by you, let the record show that not accepting that you made a mistake (either because you do not pay attention or willful ignorance) is direct evidence of your claims not being reliable. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17124714&postcount=46](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17124714&postcount=46) [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17124909&postcount=48](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17124909&postcount=48) > [@FXMastermind](#): > > Where did I say anything about CO2 not acting as a greenhouse gas? Much less that is hasn’t caused any warming? You claimed that CO2 was not causing any warming now, as there is a “pause”, wrong as pointed out. > [@FXMastermind](#): > > You just make up random things, no links, no evidence, and no sense of purpose, other than to repeat, once more., “you are wrong”, with nothing at all in your hand. You are even wrong on this, as the post I made early shows that me and \*\*Kimstu \*\*linked to evidence. You are even wrong at the meta level. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/223 "2014-02-24T15:27:33Z")
Hit, hit, hit … fight, fight, fight … The Itchy and Scratchy Show … ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2014, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/224 "2014-02-24T15:48:32Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Hit, hit, hit … fight, fight, fight … > The Itchy and Scratchy Show … Like if there was any equivalency, the points of FX are like playing T-ball when **Kimstu** , \*\*wolfpup \*\*and others are playing baseball. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2014, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/225 "2014-02-24T16:40:13Z")
But every thread … c’mon … can’t you two confine your discussions to just a half dozen threads? ---
**Author:** ![andros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e480ec/32.png) [@andros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/andros)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2014, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/226 "2014-02-24T16:45:41Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Hit, hit, hit … fight, fight, fight … > The Itchy and Scratchy Show … Hey, I freely confess that I don’t know much about climatology. But I’m a badass at pop culture, and you’re harshing my buzz, pal. It’s _“Bite, bite, bite/fight, fight, fight.”_ Carry on. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2014, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/227 "2014-02-25T16:53:23Z")
Nah, it wears down the batteries ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/228 "2014-02-26T20:20:45Z")
I somehow missed this jewel before. > [@Do global warming "skeptics" honestly see us as a benign species?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/do-global-warming-skeptics-honestly-see-us-as-a-benign-species/677984/544): > > You seem to have an observation based on the facts that runs contrary to the climatological consensus. OK that is sort of a funny phrase, “ **an observation based on the facts** ” , and then there is “ **the climatological consensus** ”. What does that mean? Because I tend to INCLUDE A LINK TO THE DATA when I point to some facts, I figure my observation isn’t the key thing. It’s yours. And I didn’t know that the facts changed because of **the climatological consensus**. To me, if you can observe it, if it’s recorded, if it’s right there on the page, it’s not a matter of debate. If the GISS trend shows -.13 C THEN THAT IS WHAT IT SHOWS How else can you look at it? If my point is about a period of time, say the last 100 years, and I say, hey, look at this trend for the last 100 years, how the fuck is that “an observation” that is at odds with **the climatological consensus**? I mean, what the fuck? Are you telling me people look at the same map and see different things? [a 100 year trend from GISS](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2014&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=3&type=trends&mean_gen=01&year1=1915&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob) [a 100 year trend from GISS](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2014&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=07&year1=1914&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob) [a 100 year trend from GISS](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2014&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=12&year1=1914&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob) [Warm season trend](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2014&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=0506&year1=1914&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob) [Cold season trend](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2014&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=1106&year1=1914&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=250&pol=rob) That there are different ways to observe the same thing? How in the fuck is that scientific? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/229 "2014-02-26T20:55:25Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > I somehow missed this jewel before. OK that is sort of a funny phrase, “ **an observation based on the facts** ” , and then there is “ **the climatological consensus** ”. > What does that mean? Because I tend to INCLUDE A LINK TO THE DATA when I point to some facts, I figure my observation isn’t the key thing. It’s yours. And those remain a cherry pick, the experts at NASA and GISS still do not agree with your observation as it is missing a lot of context in order to find your preconceived notions. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/230 "2014-02-26T21:16:15Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > That there are different ways to observe the same thing? Why, yes, as a matter of fact, there are. In this case, in the context of a discussion about global average temperature trends (that IS what we’re discussing, right?) we can identify the following two ways in particular: (a) your way, into which you contrive to introduce a multiplicity of obfuscations: picking individual months rather than annual averages (which makes the thing entirely pointless with respect to annual trends), using a distribution map instead of a simple temperature graph (which makes the average trend hard to see), and using a plot of computed trends instead of anomalies (which is highly skewed by the selected starting point). (b) the correct way: [a simple trend line](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif) of global land-ocean average annual temperature. This is from the same GISS data, generated by the same source. This is why you never link to line plots of global average temperature anomalies. They’re simple, they clearly show the trend of the annual global average temperature, and they are hard to spin into something they’re not. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/231 "2014-02-26T21:23:42Z")
Please define “cherry pick” … data is data, and most of the data is all over the place. It’s not hard to pick and choose which data you want to use and you can get that data to say anything you want (or anything you’re paid to say). How much of this temperature data is affected by agricultural practices? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/232 "2014-02-26T21:44:46Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Please define “cherry pick” … data is data, and most of the data is all over the place. It’s not hard to pick and choose which data you want to use and you can get that data to say anything you want (or anything you’re paid to say). > > How much of this temperature data is affected by agricultural practices? [http://www.skepticblog.org/2012/04/11/cherry-picked-data-and-deliberate-distortions/](http://www.skepticblog.org/2012/04/11/cherry-picked-data-and-deliberate-distortions/) > [@](#): > > As climatologists have known for years, 1998 was an exceptionally warm year due to a record El Niño, which boosted average global temperature way above the overall trend from the past few decades. During El Niño years, the marine circulation patterns release a lot of tropical heat from the oceans and raise overall global temperature for a short time. Likewise, 2008 was a La Niña year, and it was cooler than normal. These are part of the year-to-year “noise” in the system of global temperatures that is well known to scientists. Scientists never take a single year’s temperature and then connect it to another data point and claim it’s a “trend.” Instead, **the only rigorous and scientifically defensible method is to look at the long-term trends in climate over decades** and “smooth” the curve using rolling averages, so that a more statistically meaningful curve fit can be performed. > [@](#): > > Cherry-picking can be played both ways. If I pick any year prior to 1998-2000 and connect with any data point from 2001 onwards, I get a warming trend. In fact, the only way a AGW denier could get their “no warming since 1998″ misrepresentation is to deliberately and consciously look at the curve, pick 1998 to start, and only compare it to 1999-2001. Any other long-term combination of the data shows warming. Thus, this distortion of the data that Will keeps repeating is not just a simple misreading of the facts. Since the meme is quoted from 2009, this means that the deniers were consciously and fraudulently trying to distort the data to suit their purposes. The fact that this lie keeps being perpetuated despite the fact that scientists have offered numerous corrections shows the AGW deniers have the same casual disregard for the truth that creationists do. Such practices demonstrate the absymal level of their scientific integrity, and speaks to the fact that AGW deniers are not climate scientists, but people with political agendas who cherry-pick data, quote-mine out of context, and use whatever lies and half-truths they need to support their cause. The parallel with creationists and other science deniers could not be any clearer. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/233 "2014-02-26T22:10:03Z")
Yes, you can smooth your data however you want to, and the data will say whatever you want it too … that’s the nature of statistics. Is it then true that you’re “cherry picking” the data from just the last 150 years? If we want to discuss the science of climate change, don’t we have to look at the past several million years and how all the various factors that affect climate interact with one another. Statistics can point us in the right direction, but in and of themselves, they are not evidence. You cherry-picked your definition of cherry-picking … pretty funny … ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/234 "2014-02-26T22:14:03Z")
I was thinking, you know, if the question is, “Has the global mean temperature cooled since 2002”, then looking at the data, to answer that question, was straight forward. You look at it, computers spit out numbers, we know the answer. But with climate science, you can’t just go with the evidence, it’s how you feel that matters. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/235 "2014-02-26T22:16:21Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Yes, you can smooth your data however you want to, and the data will say whatever you want it too … That is just not true. No matter how you torture the data, it’s been cooling since 2002, no question about it. To get a different answer, you have to actually create data at that point. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/236 "2014-02-26T22:22:26Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Yes, you can smooth your data however you want to, and the data will say whatever you want it too … that’s the nature of statistics. Is it then true that you’re “cherry picking” the data from just the last 150 years? If we want to discuss the science of climate change, don’t we have to look at the past several million years and how all the various factors that affect climate interact with one another. Are you still insisting that scientists have not looked at items like that? Basically the main reason why they look at far past is to gain evidence of how warm we can get when considering the natural forces, the problem now is that humans are dumping a lot of the CO2 that was sequestered at a faster rate than nature did before. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > Statistics can point us in the right direction, but in and of themselves, they are not evidence. Duh, the thing is that the data is not based on imagination. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > You cherry-picked your definition of cherry-picking … pretty funny … No, I think that you don’t know what you are talking about. Paleoclimate data has been pointed out by me many times in the past, the ignorance from you is to assume that humans were also in the deep past doing the same, the situation now is different. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/237 "2014-02-26T22:24:45Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > That is just not true. > > No matter how you torture the data, it’s been cooling since 2002, no question about it. > > To get a different answer, you have to actually create data at that point. Cite for that data creation? You need to be called for this, you need to stop accusing the scientists of faking this, otherwise you are using the same “logic” that creationists use when dealing with biology. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/238 "2014-02-26T23:10:28Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Are you still insisting that scientists have not looked at items like that? Basically the main reason why they look at far past is to gain evidence of how warm we can get when considering the natural forces, the problem now is that humans are dumping a lot of the CO2 that was sequestered at a faster rate than nature did before. I only insist you don’t look these items. These natural forces have to be understood before we can assess man’s contribution. How exactly is the CO[sub]2[/sub] being sequestered by nature? The answer to that question may lead us to a more economical solution. Without comment about Benjamin Disraeli, here’s the hard data: [Hard Data](http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature) Can I see a straight line there, sure … I can see a sine wave if I choose. With only 150 years of data, it’s real easy to speculate. That’s a very short period of time, at least in terms of climate. But there is a plateau there in the past 10 years, strangely coincident with a global economic recession. An interesting thought … ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/239 "2014-02-26T23:28:13Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Can I see a straight line there, sure … I can see a sine wave if I choose. With only 150 years of data, it’s real easy to speculate. No one is “speculating”. [This function](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing#Forcing_due_to_atmospheric_gas) doesn’t create a “sine wave”. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2014, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/240 "2014-02-26T23:29:13Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > I was thinking, you know, if the question is, “Has the global mean temperature cooled since 2002”, then looking at the data, to answer that question, was straight forward. You look at it, computers spit out numbers, we know the answer. > > … No matter how you torture the data, **it’s been cooling since 2002, no question about it.** You can keep posting bullshit as usual, but anyone can look at the actual numbers. You can also [continue to ignore my question about why you never post a straightforward temperature graph](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17144359&postcount=229) – I guess that would make the data too clear! 😃 For the years 1992 to 2013 for a reasonable perspective, but if anyone considers 2002 to be a magical year for some reason, that starts after the dashed line. ## \*\*GISS Surface Temperature Combined Land-Surface annual means. Units are °C x 10, anomalies relative to 1951-1980 base period. \*\* 19 20 28 43 33 45 61 40 40 52 61 60 52 65 59 62 49 59 66 55 57 60 P.S.- Given the facts, I consider the statement “it’s been cooling since 2002, no question about it” to be worthy of inclusion in my growing collection of “The definitive collection of FX humor”. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728.md?page=13)