# Has the world actually been cooling since 2002? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 19, 2014, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728 "2014-02-19T19:32:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/481 "2014-03-04T20:43:38Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Report me if you want to, but since the facts are that I did not use Skeptical Science in this case you are not going to get what you want, you are once again being misled by people that are proud of not paying attention on what the target is supposed to be. If you are just plugging in terms and pasting the result, without performing any thought, then that’s a problem. If you aren’t doing that then it’s not a problem. You appeared to admit that you do use that capability of the website, which in my book is not a debate/discussion. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/482 "2014-03-04T20:52:18Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > I only take it that then the point stands, FX was wrong also in his accusation, I did not use Skeptical Science to debunk Shaviv (and even if that was the case it is really a silly accusation of using a troll tool) . And the team of researchers already demonstrated for a long time that Shaviv was wrong. Priceless 2—The Revelation Take it any way you want. I’ve finally seen the light: you are right about everything and everybody who disagrees with you at all is a stupid-head denier. Even when they don’t offer an opinion. :roll eyes: I think, though, the days of you having to bother yourself with all the lesser denier stupid-heads might be coming to a close, as you’ll be the only one in the threads. So, do carry on… ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/483 "2014-03-04T20:57:53Z")
> [@RaftPeople](#): > > If you are just plugging in terms and pasting the result, without performing any thought, then that’s a problem. > > If you aren’t doing that then it’s not a problem. > > You appeared to admit that you do use that capability of the website, which in my book is not a debate/discussion. As it is recommended by experts and even Scientific American I still think you are protesting too much. The take home lesson is that there is so much supporting data and research out there that it is clear that this attempt at trying to prevent anyone from using those resources is the only resource 🙂 guys like FX have. And another point: sources like Skeptical Science are just following the same idea as [talkorigins.org](http://talkorigins.org) is to evolution. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/484 "2014-03-04T21:28:09Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Priceless 2—The Revelation > > Take it any way you want. I’ve finally seen the light: you are right about everything and everybody who disagrees with you at all is a stupid-head denier. Even when they don’t offer an opinion. :roll eyes: The best opinion is an educated one. > [@magellan01](#): > > I think, though, the days of you having to bother yourself with all the lesser denier stupid-heads might be coming to a close, as you’ll be the only one in the threads. > > So, do carry on… The mountain of evidence can and it is cataloged by Skeptical Science and others, and as\*\* it is clear once again that you are still ignoring that I did not use that source in the case of the debunking of the research of Shaviv \*\* I only claim to be more skillful know on remembering where the things are, if I had not a clue about the subject then it would show right away, like for example when people that do not pay attention accuse others of using a “troll” source. 🙂 It is not my problem if you think that ignoring what a team of researchers and others did is going to fly, and once again, the information is not coming from Skeptical Science. > **[Cosmic Rays Are Not The Cause Of Climate Change, Scientists Say](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/01/040123001629.htm)** > > Eleven Earth and space scientists say that a recent paper attributing most climate change on Earth to cosmic rays is incorrect and based on questionable methodology. > [@](#): > > Cosmic Rays Are Not The Cause Of Climate Change, Scientists Say > Date: January 23, 2004 > Source: American Geophysical Union > Summary: Eleven Earth and space scientists say that a recent paper attributing most climate change on Earth to cosmic rays is incorrect and based on questionable methodology. > [@](#): > > According to Rahmstorf, Shaviv and Veizer’s analyses–and especially their conclusions–are scientifically ill-founded. The data on cosmic rays and temperature so far in the past are extremely uncertain, he says. Further, their reconstruction of ancient cosmic rays is based on only 50 meteorites, and most other experts interpret their significance in a very different way, he says. He adds that two curves presented in the article show an apparent statistical correlation only because the authors adjusted the data, in one case by 40 million years. In short, say the authors of the Eos article, Shaviv and Veizer have not shown that there is any correlation between cosmic rays and climate. > [@](#): > > The current climate warming has, however, occurred during just a hundred years, for which completely different mechanisms are relevant, he says. For example, over millions of years, the shifting of continents influences climate, while over hundreds of thousands of years, small changes in Earth’s orbit can initiate or terminate ice ages. But for time periods of years, decades, or centuries, these processes are irrelevant. Volcanic eruptions, changes in solar activity, and the concentration of greenhouse gases, as well as internal oscillations of the climate system, are crucial on this scale. > > The 11 authors of the Eos article affirm that the strong increase of carbon dioxide and some other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to manmade emissions is most probably the main cause of the global warming of the last few decades. The most important physical processes are well understood, they say, and model calculations as well as data analyses both come to the conclusion that the human contribution to the global warming of the 20th century was dominant. ---
**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/485 "2014-03-04T21:29:34Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > As it is recommended by experts and even Scientific American I still think you are protesting too much. WTF are you talking about? This is supposed to be a discussion/debate/exchange of ideas. Scientific American has nothing to do with whether you should be using an app to regurgitate pre-defined responses to key terms. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/486 "2014-03-04T21:34:22Z")
This entire issue could be a topic. > **[iPhone app pitches climate change science against scepticism | Leo Hickman](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2010/feb/17/iphone-app-climate-change)** > > Leo Hickman: Deniers queue up to lambast Skeptical Science application developed by solar physicist John Cook. Now there's a surprise ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/487 "2014-03-04T21:36:26Z")
> [@RaftPeople](#): > > WTF are you talking about? > > This is supposed to be a discussion/debate/exchange of ideas. > > Scientific American has nothing to do with whether you should be using an app to regurgitate pre-defined responses to key terms. And the not getting the point continues. Read it again, **I did not use Skeptical Science to debunk Shaviv.** Be my guest if you only want to show all that you are not paying attention and not dealing with the evidence. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/488 "2014-03-04T21:37:00Z")
And lo and behold, look what is in that 2010 article. > [@](#): > > I think it would be very constructive if they compiled a one-stop shop for all their arguments with full references and citations so that everyone could assess them calmly and dispassionately. This would be done away from the white heat of the blogosphere cauldron where people can make any claim they choose and know it has the ability to stick – as proved just this week with the shameless, wilful twisting by the Daily Mail of climatologist Phil Jones’s remarks to the BBC about **whether there has been a statistically significant rise in global temperatures since 1995**. I await with bated breath. Isn’t that interesting. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/489 "2014-03-04T21:40:05Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > This entire issue could be a topic. > > [iPhone app pitches climate change science against scepticism | Leo Hickman | The Guardian](http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2010/feb/17/iphone-app-climate-change) The better to ignore how inadequate the source that you used was, and once again, \*\*I did not use Skeptical Science to debunk Shaviv. \*\* ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/490 "2014-03-04T21:45:50Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > And lo and behold, look what is in that 2010 article. > > Isn’t that interesting. What is interesting that I can reply to that with no need to find a reference, as Phil Jones reported the use of 1995 was made to get precisely the right response (cherry picking again), what is not reported is that Phil Jones and many others reported in 2011 or 2012 that now it is indeed significantly warmer than 1995. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/491 "2014-03-04T21:52:00Z")
> [@RaftPeople](#): > > I want a real discussion… [You’ve got one](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17161114&postcount=441). Maybe you missed it. I honestly think that it provides a good perspective on some of these issues. Perhaps you’d care to respond. The funny thing is that the NRC document I quote actually goes out of its way to say that they’re not taking a position on some of the research controversies that it discusses on solar effects. The stuff I quoted is stated in the document’s general introduction because **it’s not even controversial** ; it’s just describing the accepted scientific baseline. Yet this is the stuff that **FX** is trying to “debate”, and not very successfully. If I may also make a general comment to the larger community, I don’t understand this current obsession about **how** someone gets information, what’s important is the information that’s posted and the credibility of the source. Most of what I’ve seen **GIGO** link to is scientifically sound and certainly provides both a credible corroboration and a basis for discussion. I might contrast that with the nonsense just posted about Shaviv as supposedly some kind of refutation of what is known about solar effects, using as a cite his editorial in the National Post (a right-wing rag infamous for its denialist editorials on climate change) and a link to what is basically James Inhofe’s personal denialist blog, Inhofe being the most scientifically illiterate senator to ever hold office who insists that climate science is “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on mankind”. Those kinds of posts are not science. Scientific discussions entail links to scientific literature or to websites that cite such literature, by people who actually understand what they are linking. But I don’t expect science from anyone who posts [nonsense like this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17122677&postcount=27) (refuted [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17123960&postcount=37)) or any of the dozens of other examples I’ve linked. I understand **FX** will be your best friend forever if you can ever show him that he was wrong, but he never seems to see those posts. ---
**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/492 "2014-03-04T21:53:04Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > And the not getting the point continues. > > Read it again, **I did not use Skeptical Science to debunk Shaviv.** Be my guest if you only want to show all that you are not paying attention and not dealing with the evidence. I’m not talking about that one instance. I’m talking about all of the other times for the last 2 years you failed to comprehend the words in a post and just posted some crap back that it now appears was generated by just keying in some keywords. I actually engaged you thinking you would try to understand the point being made. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/493 "2014-03-04T21:53:44Z")
It’s all quite ironic. [http://woodfortrees.org/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995.9/every:12/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995.16/every:12/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995/every:12/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995.08/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/trend](http://woodfortrees.org/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995.9/every:12/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995.16/every:12/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995/every:12/plot/crutem3vnh/from:1995.08/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/trend) ---
**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/494 "2014-03-04T21:55:42Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > [You’ve got one](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17161114&postcount=441). Maybe you missed it. You’re right, discussions with you and others have been good, I just haven’t had time to respond to that one. It’s just annoying to have wasted energy on an Eliza program operated by **GIGO**. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/495 "2014-03-04T21:56:42Z")
> [@RaftPeople](#): > > That explains why he never seemed to understand anything. Yep. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > What is interesting that I can reply to that with no need to find a reference, as Phil Jones reported the use of 1995 was made to get precisely the right response (cherry picking again), what is not reported is that Phil Jones and many others reported in 2011 or 2012 that now it is indeed significantly warmer than 1995. Actually, it’s not. That is what makes this so priceless. [http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss-land/from:1995.9/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995.16/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995.08/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/trend](http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss-land/from:1995.9/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995.16/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995.08/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/trend) The numbers don’t lie. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/496 "2014-03-04T21:59:18Z")
> [@RaftPeople](#): > > It’s just annoying to have wasted energy on an Eliza program operated by **GIGO**. I knew what he was doing, which is why I did what I did in the Pit thread. He bailed on the entire thread when he discovered his app was useless. I never even thought of reporting it to the Mods. I’m not a narc man. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/497 "2014-03-04T22:03:46Z")
Many of the ones that still have no clue about what sources were actually used to debunk Shaviv are also ignoring what I have said many times before, a poster is not really important when there is lots of evidence out there. And one should not rely on an anonymous poster on the internet, and specially when there is lots of evidence out there. It is because I do not think one should rely on what one claims that then cites are important. And this is because no matter how reliable I could claim to be one should point at where some bit of knowledge came from: > **[Global warming since 1995 'now significant'](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13719510)** > > Phil Jones, the climate scientist at the centre of "ClimateGate", says previous comments on global temperatures have been superseded by new data. > [@](#): > > Phil Jones’s comments last year have become a touchstone for climate “skeptics” > > Climate warming since 1995 is now statistically significant, according to Phil Jones, the UK scientist targeted in the “ClimateGate” affair. > > Last year, he told BBC News that post-1995 warming was not significant - a statement still seen on blogs critical of the idea of man-made climate change. > > But another year of data has pushed the trend past the threshold usually used to assess whether trends are “real”. > > Dr Jones says this shows the importance of using longer records for analysis. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/498 "2014-03-04T22:06:44Z")
> [@FXMastermind](#): > > Yep. > Actually, it’s not. That is what makes this so priceless. > [Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs](http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss-land/from:1995.9/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995.16/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995.08/every:12/plot/rss-land/from:1995/trend) > > The numbers don’t lie. Not what the scientist and others reported, and you are using land readings only. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/499 "2014-03-04T22:07:20Z")
He’s not going to get it. I keep telling you. If he could grasp the ramifications of what just happened, he wouldn’t be who he is. ---
**Author:** ![FXMastermind](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fxmastermind/32/7289_2.png) [@FXMastermind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FXMastermind)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2014, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728/500 "2014-03-04T22:08:41Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Not what the scientist and others reported, and you are using land readings only. You see? An intelligent person would simply put the right values in, generate a graph, and post a link to it. That’s an easy way to simply counter something you find is cherry picking. But GIGO? **He doesn’t know how to do that**. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-the-world-actually-been-cooling-since-2002/681728.md?page=26)