# Has there ever been a genuine surprise in the draft? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 15, 2011, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836 "2011-03-15T21:53:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/1 "2011-03-15T21:53:26Z")
Has anybody been drafted in the NFL that has been a total surprise? As in totally out of left field? Let’s leave out: [ul] [li]The projected #1 pick dropped a slot or two, allowing another first-rounder to move up (Suh & Bush)[/li][li]Cases where players dropped due to criminal/character issues (Sapp & Moss)[/li][li]After-the-draft surprises (Brady & Warner or Leaf & Russell)[/li][/ul] And let’s go beyond cases where a projected high first round has dropped to a low first round (Rodgers & Marino). I mean a TOTAL surprise; something Mel Kiper couldn’t have seen the day before: Everyone’s scrambling around going “WHO?” “With the 10th overall pick, the Rams select Joe Schmoe out of Slippery Rock.” Or, on the other hand: “How did All-American Marcus Smith fall from the first round to the 5th round today?” Throw in the NBA, too. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/2 "2011-03-15T22:00:47Z")
I’m not sure if this quite fits the bill, but the Jack Lambert was the 46th pick in the 2nd round of the 1974 NFL draft…not exactly a high profile pick…and went on to become arguably the best middle linebacker of all time, with 9 Pro Bowl selections, 8 All Pro selections, and 4 Super Bowl championships in 11 seasons. ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/3 "2011-03-15T22:17:41Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > I’m not sure if this quite fits the bill, but the Jack Lambert was the 46th pick in the 2nd round of the 1974 NFL draft…not exactly a high profile pick…and went on to become arguably the best middle linebacker of all time, with 9 Pro Bowl selections, 8 All Pro selections, and 4 Super Bowl championships in 11 seasons. I should’ve titled the thread “Draft _Day_ surprise”. Was he projected to go significantly higher/lower than 2nd round? ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/4 "2011-03-15T22:26:44Z")
The Raiders drafted Mike Mitchel in the second round in 09. He was generally considered 7th round or free agent talent. I heard supposedly there were couple other teams looking at him early, but I don’t know if that was confirmed. Mel Kiper was the only guy on ESPN’s desk who even recognized the name when the pick was announced. And [ESPN.com](http://ESPN.com) didn’t even have him in the draft database. The selection sat empty for a long time while they were looking for someone to program him in I think. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/5 "2011-03-15T22:39:18Z")
> [@HubZilla](#): > > Throw in the NBA, too. Darko Miličić was chosen by the Pistons over Carmello Anthony, Dwane Wade, and Chrisi Bosh. I was stunned. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/6 "2011-03-15T22:44:38Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Darko Miličić was chosen by the Pistons over Carmello Anthony, Dwane Wade, and Chrisi Bosh. > > I was stunned. You spelled correctly (I think) the Yugoslavian name, and misspelled the three Americans’ names. I am stunned. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/7 "2011-03-15T22:48:18Z")
Shawn Bradley was selected 2nd overall after playing only one year of college ball and missing the previous two years on an LDS mission. Nobody had him that high. Nobody, that is, except the Sixers, who missed out on Penny Hardaway, Jamal Mashburn, and Allan Houston to take him. ---
**Author:** ![fiddlesticks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddlesticks/32/18129_2.png) [@fiddlesticks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fiddlesticks)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/8 "2011-03-15T22:51:43Z")
I seem to remember stunned reactions from the ESPN guys when the Raiders grabbed Darrius Heyward-Bey for the seventh pick in 2009. In the Kiper era, I don’t think the “Who?” question ever happens anymore. In baseball I know that teams have been known to waste late draft picks on nobodies who have a family connection to the team, just to let them have the chance to say that they were drafted. But the baseball draft is a whole different animal… ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/9 "2011-03-15T22:58:37Z")
> [@wolfman](#): > > The Raiders drafted Mike Mitchel in the second round in 09. He was generally considered 7th round or free agent talent. > … The Raiders had already pulled a stunner earlier in the same draft by taking WR Darrius Heyward-Bey at #7 overall. Heyward-Bey was rated as a reach if picked at the end of the first round and a gamble in the second. ---
**Author:** ![sitchensis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sitchensis/32/4892_2.png) [@sitchensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sitchensis)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/10 "2011-03-15T23:13:18Z")
Tim Tebow - Denver traded up to get a pick that most thought would fall to them later in the draft. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/11 "2011-03-15T23:15:07Z")
> [@fiddlesticks](#): > > In baseball I know that teams have been known to waste late draft picks on nobodies who have a family connection to the team, just to let them have the chance to say that they were drafted. But the baseball draft is a whole different animal… Such as Mike Piazza by the Dodgers in like the 60th round-Tommy Lasorda knew him and his family before the draft. ---
**Author:** ![fiddlesticks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddlesticks/32/18129_2.png) [@fiddlesticks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fiddlesticks)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/12 "2011-03-15T23:48:13Z")
“I’m shocked.” Mel Kiper on [Darrius Heyward-Bey](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNrnJI3B8FI&feature=related). Classic Al Davis though. ---
**Author:** ![markdash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/13 "2011-03-15T23:59:38Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Darko Miličić was chosen by the Pistons over Carmello Anthony, Dwane Wade, and Chrisi Bosh. > > I was stunned. Everyone thought the Pistons were going to make that pick. Darko was a consensus top-5 pick that year. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/14 "2011-03-16T00:17:25Z")
The Raiders drafting a kicker in the first round in 2000 had to be a shocker, right? I mean - no kickers are ever seriously in the discussion for anything more than a 4th or 5th round pick. ---
**Author:** ![HubZilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ccd318/32.png) [@HubZilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HubZilla)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/15 "2011-03-16T02:05:49Z")
I wouldn’t say Darko, either. IIRC, the NBA draft was really played up as a three-way. LeBron: best high school player; hyped since kindergarten. Carmello: Freshman led his team to the NCAA title Darko: European leagues were tougher than high school or college ball (and maybe the NBA as the 2004 Olympics would later show). In hindsight, things didn’t work out so well for Darko. But he falls into my third exception: players who performed worse or better _after_ the draft. A draft-day surprise would’ve been for Ryan Leaf to fall to the 4th round or see Northern Iowa’s Kurt Warner get drafted in the first. Heyward-Bey and Mitchell above are what I was looking for. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/16 "2011-03-16T02:11:09Z")
I’m not sure how much of a total surprise it was to those in the know, but the collective response in Sacramento was “who?!?” when the Kings drafted “PRE-drag Stoy-a-KO-vich” in the 1996 NBA draft. He would eventually go on to become Peja Stojakovic, but nobody seemed to know who he was at the time… ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/17 "2011-03-16T02:30:38Z")
There was a lot of surprise when the Jets drafted Ken O’Brien when Dan Marino was still available. When Rozelle said, "New York, a quarterback . . . . " everyone in the room thought it would be Marino. O’Brien was a good quarterback, but no Marino. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/18 "2011-03-16T03:18:34Z")
Jimmy Clausen plummeting down the draft board a few years ago was a shock to everyone. No one expected a top 10 pick or anything - but there were a handful of teams that needed a QB who picked in the middle of the 1st round. He ended up going in the 2nd round. Combined with Denver’s Tebow pick, that was a weird draft. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/19 "2011-03-16T03:27:19Z")
The Bucs, in the bad old days, used to do this all of the time. The classic example: > [@](#): > > Reese played college football in Bethune-Cookman College and was drafted in the second round of the 1982 NFL Draft by the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers intended to draft him in the first round, but a broken communication resulted in their mistakenly drafting Sean Farrell. They were so convinced of his talent that they traded a future first round pick in the 1983 NFL Draft to get him, despite advance knowledge that 1983 would be a particularly strong draft class. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2011, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836/20 "2011-03-16T04:19:19Z")
True surprises are extremely rare nowadays. Back in the late Sixties and early Seventies, the Dallas Cowboys had a much bigger scouting staff and did a LOT more research into college players than most other teams (they were, famously, the first team to use a computer). As a result, they regularly drafted unheralded players from relatively small schools, and people were often shocked when those guys turned out to be good- Calvin Hill of Yale and Duane Thomas of West Texas State, for instance. A few other teams TRIED to follow suit- the most famous example being the New York Giants who drafted Rocky Thompson in the first round in 1972. Nobody had any idea who Rocky Thompson was- and he turned out to be absolutely horrible. One other surprise: Ray Guy was a very highly rated college punter in 1973, and MAY be elected to the Hall of Fame one day… but it was still a big surprise when the Raiders took a punter in the first round. Teams almost never take kickers or punters that early. Since then? Well, today, EVERY team has an extensive scouting system, players from ALL schools are scouted and evaluated and sent to combines, so it’s ALMOST impossible for a phenomenal college football player to fly completely under the radar. Teams still guess wrong regularly, but you’ll never see anyone taking a huge chance and drafting someone the rest of the league has never even heard of. Back in 1972, Rocky Thompson was a true stunner. Today, at most, a team may take a guy in the late 1st round that everyone else had pencilled in as a 3rd rounder. That’s not the same level of surprise! [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/has-there-ever-been-a-genuine-surprise-in-the-draft/574836.md?page=2)