# HCR/ What I would do if I were Obama, Pelosi, Reid **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 21, 2010, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789 "2010-01-21T03:18:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/21 "2010-01-25T18:25:33Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Yes. And Helen Hunt should come over to my house to give me a nice oil massage, and my wife should remain completely calm about this plan. > > Both of which are more likely. [sup]\*[/sup] > > The thread asks what Pelosi et al should do. Pelosi has one vote to cast. She has already tried to rally support for passing the Senate bill unchanged and come up short. She simply can’t muster enough votes together to do it. This is because, in the wake of the Massachusetts senatorial surprise, on the heels of the falling poll numbers and the Virginia and New Jersey races last fall, many of the Reps believe it’s too politically risky to vote for that package. > > So any answer needs to address that reality, or it becomes an “I want a pony, too,” sort of meaningless exercise. > > Tell Helen I’ll be waiting. > > [sup]\*[/sup]OK, technically not more likely. Technically much less likely. But since both are in the realm of “very unlikely” and I like to think about Helen Hunt and oil, I’m leaving it in. Yow, did someone put vinegar instead of milk in your corn flakes this morning? In any case, thank you for relating that Pelosi has whipped the caucus and come up short. I’ve been out of the country for two weeks and missed that story. I suppose if Pelosi says she doesn’t have the votes, and there now appears to be 41 votes against pretty much any health care reform in the Senate, I suppose congressional leaders should just give up and stop trying to round up votes. Or, we could send in Helen Hunt and some oil and try to round up enough votes in the House for the Senate bill. ---
**Author:** ![DanBlather](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DanBlather](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DanBlather)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/22 "2010-01-25T18:34:42Z")
> [@Balthisar](#): > > Funny how the Republicans are the hated ones, despite so many Democrats not wanting to support the bills, either. > > In any case, true universal health care isn’t a Republican-Democrat debate (the bills are, though). Smart people don’t want a Canadian, single-payer system, which thank goodness, none of the bills have. So, pretty much, there’s still a chance for health care reform, but there’s no proposal and no chance of ever having “universal” health care with the current administration. Funny that with only one or two Republicans willing to vote yes, and the vast majority of Democrats supporting it, and with only 40 Republicans needed to filibuster, that you try and draw a moral equivalence. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/23 "2010-01-25T19:20:01Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Or, we could send in Helen Hunt and some oil and try to round up enough votes in the House for the Senate bill. I’ll be in mah bunk. ---
**Author:** ![emacknight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ec8ea/32.png) [@emacknight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emacknight)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/24 "2010-01-25T20:05:42Z")
> [@Godinama](#): > > There are many places with socialized health care whose militaries are subsidized by no one. What need does Canada have for a powerful military anyway? They are signatories to NATO, and have no particular lust for invading other sovereign nations, so what use is it to them? > [@This\_Just\_In\_2](#): > > Having a weak military is not the only reason Canada can afford health care. Canada spends about 1.4% of GDP on military - the US about 4.5%. [In addition, the US spends 15.3% of GDP on health care](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Canadian_and_American_health_care_systems) - Canada spends about 10.0%. Clearly many other factors are at work and your assertion that Canada having a weak military is the cause of affordable health care cannot be true. Sorry guys, you missed [this inside joke](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=12026976&postcount=69). ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/25 "2010-01-25T20:19:31Z")
> [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](#): > > As someone who has lived with easily affordable universal health care for most of his life of 60 years in Canada I have to wonder what the hell were they thinking in Mass. > > It seems the Republican bullshit has superceded reason down south. 48% of MA voters said healthcare was important in their vote. Since MA currently has a state version of UHC perhaps we should pay attention to what they think. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/26 "2010-01-25T21:24:02Z")
> [@yorick73](#): > > 48% of MA voters said healthcare was important in their vote. Since MA currently has a state version of UHC perhaps we should pay attention to what they think. What % said they were happy with the system in MA. I think a lot of people soured on the back-door deals that went down when the Senate plan passed. It’s not a coincidence that Bronw’s polling numbers really jumped at that time. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/27 "2010-01-25T21:31:35Z")
> [@yorick73](#): > > 48% of MA voters said healthcare was important in their vote. Since MA currently has a state version of UHC perhaps we should pay attention to what they think. Wouldn’t that include both people voting for the Republican because they don’t like the plan and people voting for the Democrat because they **do** like it? Simply saying that it was important in their vote tells us nothing. ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2010, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/28 "2010-01-25T22:55:33Z")
> [@Raygun99](#): > > Wouldn’t that include both people voting for the Republican because they don’t like the plan and people voting for the Democrat because they **do** like it? Simply saying that it was important in their vote tells us nothing. Yes, of course. But it is interesting that such a large percent considered it the #1 issue (56% according to this link: [CNSNews](http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/60139)) and the Democrat lost. Coakley had a slight edge in terms of who voters thought was better able to handle the issue but even this is surprising in MA. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2010, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/29 "2010-01-26T15:35:42Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > I suppose if Pelosi says she doesn’t have the votes, and there now appears to be 41 votes against pretty much any health care reform in the Senate, I suppose congressional leaders should just give up and stop trying to round up votes. The question is, would Pelosi have the votes if 50 Senate Dems agreed to vote for a package of House amendments to the Senate bill via reconciliation? And would it be possible to round up those 50 Senate Dems? I think they’re starting to get clued in that it’s one thing to spend most of a year coming up with a health care reform bill that has some real problems, but also does a lot of good (e.g. no more problems with pre-existing conditions) - but it’s a far more dangerous thing for them this November to come up with _nothing_ after all that. That still doesn’t mean they’ll actually get their act together and pass a health care bill. I think the odds are still well against it. But they’re at least motivated to try. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2010, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/30 "2010-01-26T19:02:02Z")
I have been led to believe that reconciliation is not possible for health care reform because of the Byrd Rule. Extraneous matter that does not have direct effect on the budget cannot be included in reconciliation matters, and seeing as how any health care bill is going to be laden with changes in law that are not principally budgetary items, including things like new laws on pre-existing conditions or establishing a new agency to oversee the reforms, any item like that would not be protected from filibuster. If you can provide a knowledgeable citation that I am wrong, I would be interested to read it. ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2010, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/31 "2010-01-26T23:11:20Z")
The authoritative answer is, it depends. 🙂 There are parts of healthcare reform that would fit with the Byrd rule, basically anything that can be shown to have an effect on the budget or deficit. But there are large parts that would not make it past, like not allowing pre-existing conditions to prevent insurance coverage. The idea is to pass the current Senate bill, which covers things that can’t go through reconciliation, then use reconciliation on the stuff they can, like what level of taxes to place on which Cadillac insurance plans, to improve the end result. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/32 "2010-01-27T18:05:28Z")
> [@Lok](#): > > The idea is to pass the current Senate bill, which covers things that can’t go through reconciliation, then use reconciliation on the stuff they can, like what level of taxes to place on which Cadillac insurance plans, to improve the end result. That’s pretty much it, as far as I can tell. Of course, [things like this](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/27/health/policy/27health.html?hpw) don’t give one much hope: > [@](#): > > The Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada, deflected questions about health care. “We’re not on health care now,” Mr. Reid said. “We’ve talked a lot about it in the past.” > > He added, “There is no rush,” and noted that Congress still had most of this year to work on the health bills passed in 2009 by the Senate and the House. ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/33 "2010-01-27T23:34:29Z")
Yeah, on the one hand, he is right they have until the end of this congress to pass it, OTOH, the more they ignore it, the more they will want to keep doing so. And the harder it will be to convince anyone running for office this year (i.e., the entire House) that voting for it is a good idea. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2010, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/34 "2010-01-27T23:52:26Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > That’s pretty much it, as far as I can tell. > > Of course, [things like this](http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/27/health/policy/27health.html?hpw) don’t give one much hope: I read that quote in the paper today, and almost didn’t believe it. Health care? That is sooooo 2009, dude!! Pelosi was more upbeat today. I’ve heard she’s using her “we don’t have the votes to pass the Senate bill” as a negotiating tool. But unless she’s negotiating some else along with that bill, I don’t see what there would be to negotiate about. You either vote for the bill as is, or you don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2010, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/35 "2010-01-28T00:06:00Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > IPelosi was more upbeat today. I’ve heard she’s using her “we don’t have the votes to pass the Senate bill” as a negotiating tool. But unless she’s negotiating some else along with that bill, I don’t see what there would be to negotiate about. You either vote for the bill as is, or you don’t. I think they’re trying to get the Senate to commit to passing some fixes via reconciliation before the House commits to voting for the Senate bill. So she’s negotiating with the Senate. I suspect that will be the final result, there isn’t really any other believable route to getting this done, and scared or not, I don’t think the Dems will be willing to walk away from something they’ve burnt so much time and political capital on. Plus, it could be done relatively quickly, since I also can’t imagine they want this thing hanging over their heads in limbo for the next 9 months. ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2010, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/36 "2010-01-28T02:43:01Z")
The smart ones don’t want it hanging there, the question is, how many are smart enough to realize that and not too scared to have a vote for it on their voting record. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2010, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789/37 "2010-01-28T18:55:35Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Yes. And Helen Hunt should come over to my house to give me a nice oil massage, and my wife should remain completely calm about this plan. > > Both of which are more likely. [sup]\*[/sup] > > The thread asks what Pelosi et al should do. Pelosi has one vote to cast. She has already tried to rally support for passing the Senate bill unchanged and come up short. She simply can’t muster enough votes together to do it. This is because, in the wake of the Massachusetts senatorial surprise, on the heels of the falling poll numbers and the Virginia and New Jersey races last fall, many of the Reps believe it’s too politically risky to vote for that package. > > So any answer needs to address that reality, or it becomes an “I want a pony, too,” sort of meaningless exercise. > > Tell Helen I’ll be waiting. You might want to start looking up Helen Hunt’s number and start prepping the ground with your wife. > [@National Journal](#): > > Offering Democrats a potential means to revive their top domestic priority, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi flatly predicted Wednesday afternoon that she could muster enough votes to pass the Senate version of health care reform if the upper chamber agreed to adjust the bill through the reconciliation process. > > Speaking to columnists just hours before President Obama’s first State of the Union Address, Pelosi said that if the Senate used the reconciliation process to revise elements of the legislation unacceptable to her members, the House could approve such a two-track approach. “What I’m saying to you is the Senate bill, stand-alone, I don’t see any chance of it [passing the House],” she said. “Reconciliation resolving some of the issues: then we can pass this thing.” Sorry, can’t link to original, as it is subscription-only. But [this story](http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100128/ts_nm/us_obama_healthcare) concludes with similar remarks. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-what-i-would-do-if-i-were-obama-pelosi-reid/525789.md?page=1)