# HCR: where do we go from here, both politically and with the issue in general?) **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 22, 2010, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300 "2010-03-22T03:39:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/1 "2010-03-22T03:39:31Z")
OK, the health care reform bill is now pretty much a done deal. Now we can look at what happens next. Politically: Certainly, the Republican argument that the nation didn’t want this bill will be put to the test in a few months. It seems relatively clear that Democrats will generally be pleased at these results, and put those feelings to work electorally, and Republicans the opposite. What happens here may depend on a few things: whether displeasure is a stronger political motivator than pleasure, whether historical trends on party power play out, and how independent voters, in general, feel about this whole thing. Thoughts? HCR in general: Many liberal politicians have said that this bill is a first, not final, step. But considering how much effort the first step took, will that make it more or less likely that they’ll try to do more in the future? The temptation will certainly be to rest on laurels, reap political benefits, and let the next guy do the rest. Will they? Will it at least affect _what kind_ of things they try in the future? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/2 "2010-03-22T03:48:49Z")
Well, the _next_ step is to get the reconciliation package passed. Even if that passes tonight yet, it’ll still need to go to the Senate (where, admittedly, it’ll stand a very good chance of passing, since it can’t be filibustered). After that, the next step would be the public option, which I’m sure Grayson and a few others will continue trying to push, but realistically, I don’t think that has a chance until either a, the 2012 elections at the earliest (when we might hope to have 60+ legislators in the Senate again), or b, when the Senate rules are changed to go back to majority rule. ---
**Author:** ![sleeping](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/839c29/32.png) [@sleeping](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sleeping)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/3 "2010-03-22T03:52:34Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Politically: Certainly, the Republican argument that the nation didn’t want this bill will be put to the test in a few months. It seems relatively clear that Democrats will generally be pleased at these results, and put those feelings to work electorally, and Republicans the opposite. What happens here may depend on a few things: whether displeasure is a stronger political motivator than pleasure, whether historical trends on party power play out, and how independent voters, in general, feel about this whole thing. Thoughts? A couple of clarifications: -independent does not mean moderate. There are people who are unregistered or registered as third party members who may have supported the bill, or opposed it because it was not sufficient. -election outcomes are not solely dependent on the attitudes of swing voters. They are also affected by the turnout of regular supporters. One question I have is about the conservative Democrats who opposed the bill: They represent conservative areas. Do they not realize that the right-wingers who opposed the healthcare bill may replace them with Republicans _anyway_? Just minutes after the reconciliation bill passed, a caller on C-SPAN said that she would never vote for a Democrat again. I suspect this attitude is pervasive within the right, which means that conservadems may have doomed themselves by voting against it. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/4 "2010-03-22T03:58:40Z")
IMO The Left Coaster and Frontline points at what is likely to happen. [http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/014889.php](http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/014889.php) > [@](#): > > The Republican Party and the right are fighting this bill with everything they have. And they threaten to run on repealing it in November. Some of the more crazy are declaring that if it passes, they will be forced to start a civil war. > > Yet, when the rhetoric becomes so intense, it is good to realize that this type of frenzied opposition has been seen before. Once the system is actually working, even the most ardent of the opposition are inclined to stop fearing the change and even embrace it for the value it brings to their lives. > > Frontline had a program a few years ago about how universal health care coverage worked in other countries. Of particular interest today is what happened in Switzerland when they voted to extend coverage to all in a system with an extremely narrow majority. The opposition was virulent as is ours today. **Yet ten years later, the Conservative who led the charge against the change admits that he is proud of the change now and believes that universal coverage is something that any truly civilized society must have.** The Frontline clip appears in the site. I wish that the bill would be better, but it is clear to me that many will see the benefits (Some will appear later and it will not affect much the next elections later this year) and conclude that the Republicans really only deserve to be in the minority for generations for the fear mongering and lies they used to convince a good chunk of the American public. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/5 "2010-03-22T04:07:36Z")
> [@](#): > > The Republican Party and the right are fighting this bill with everything they have. And they threaten to run on repealing it in November. Good luck with that. While there’s a slim chance the Republicans might get to 51 seats in the Senate, there’s no chance whatsoever they’ll get to the 67 needed to override Obama’s inevitable veto of the repeal. The earliest chance to repeal it would be in 2012, by which point enough people will have realized the benefits of it that repeal will be politically impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/6 "2010-03-22T04:13:32Z")
I think what happens now is that we wait and see how well the new law actually works, and what happens to the people who voted for and against it. If things go well, there are probably going to be more reforms. If it turns out disastrous, either for the country or the congressmen who voted for it, further reform will be stalled. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/7 "2010-03-22T04:13:48Z")
It passed btw, for anyone not following along. I hope it’s everything that folks on this board think it will be. Personally, I’m more than a bit uneasy about this bill, and I hope I’m wrong about how this will all turn out. Where do we go from here? Gods know. I guess the place to start is figuring out how to pay for it, and then figuring out what the final product (snort…as if) will look like and what it will and won’t actually do in the end. And see how the back scratching goes and what deals were made to get it through…and what all that will add to the mix. -XT ---
**Author:** ![BrightNShiny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7bcc69/32.png) [@BrightNShiny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightNShiny)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/8 "2010-03-22T04:33:01Z")
My guess is that the only significant further movement we’ll see over the next decade will be to open up the exchanges to everyone. If the people allowed into the exchanges are happy with the coverage, then we’ll probably see political pressure to open them up. It’s possible we might see Federalizing the exchanges into one big exchange and/or allowing a Medicare buy-in. But those seem fairly unlikely to me to pass anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/9 "2010-03-22T06:37:25Z")
The Republicans run on a “Repeal the Bill” ticket in November, pick up seats in both houses, fail to repeal the bill (probably don’t give much more than the ol’ college try), engage in downright ghastly partisan behavior-- including the impeachment or attempted impeachment of President Obama-- and continue to run in future elections as “the party of morals and values.” Bookmark this post. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/10 "2010-03-22T07:06:53Z")
The GOP is going to find itself in a very tough position now that the bill is passed. The Tea Party set is going to scream for repeal but it’s clear that several parts of the bill are popular. Crafting a repeal proposal that will win votes is going to be difficult but ignoring health care will deeply anger their base. In short health care will be a big wedge issue and my hunch is it will help Democrats come November. Several of the benefits of the bill: closing the “doughnut”, money for clinics etc. will kick in by then giving them further campaign mileage. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/11 "2010-03-22T13:25:18Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > It passed btw, for anyone not following along. I suddenly feel so unfree. How much of this stuff kicks in this year? Next year? Later years? ---
**Author:** ![meanoldman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ab992/32.png) [@meanoldman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/meanoldman)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/12 "2010-03-22T13:37:11Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I suddenly feel so unfree. > > How much of this stuff kicks in this year? Next year? Later years? Really? I feel just the opposite. Knowing that shortly, if I want to pursue some other venture in my life, I can leave my current workplace and know for certain that I can buy insurance elsewhere, without worry about them dropping me on a “pre-existing condition” clause. I feel liberated. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/13 "2010-03-22T15:29:36Z")
Whoosh! ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/14 "2010-03-22T16:12:57Z")
The big thing is that the uncertainty about what is going to be in the bill is gone. The stories seemed to cover the battle more than the content, and now this will change. I suspect most people will go back to favoring it now that the FUD has been removed, and because the hammer and sickle did not get raised over the White House after all. No death panels, no forcing you to switch doctors, no dead grannies. in fact, not much of anything before the elections - except I get to put my daughter back on my health insurance if she doesn’t have a job with insurance and isn’t in Germany enjoying UHC again. Plus, the Republicans failed in their major objective. That’s got to count for something. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/15 "2010-03-22T16:32:02Z")
This isn’t done, not nearly. We still have a long way to go. This legislation doesn’t do much about cost control or limiting waste by getting insurance companies’ snouts out of the feed trough. It still leaves people uncovered. All those will have to be addressed at some point. I personally favor a stepwise expansion of Medicare eligibility until that becomes the single-payer system, but that’s for another day. But later, maybe an election cycle or two further on, after this settles in and the credibility of all the lies that have been told about it dissipates. Social Security and Medicare passed in much the same way and amid much the same rhetoric, remember, and quickly became untouchable in much the same way that “Obamacare” will (the antis may regret that name). The GOP is badly misreading, or badly overstating, polls that purport to show the public against it. They’re all pretty close, and even before the vote were already trending toward the Dems’ direction. If the GOP tries to campaign on a repeal platform, they’ll only harden their base while risking alienating the independents. Long-term, it’s going to hurt, just as it keeps hurting them that they opposed Social Security back in 1935. And there’s the “Quien es mas macho?” factor, always present in politics, and historically a winner for the GOP. But right now, it’s “Obama y Pelosi son mas macho.” That won’t be easy to re-reverse. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/16 "2010-03-22T16:49:44Z")
For better or worse, the Republicans have been more successful in defining this legislation in the public mind, particularly among districts where Democrats are vulnerable. It seems to me that the political task for the Democrats has to be to figure out how to change that between now and November. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/17 "2010-03-22T17:19:17Z")
True. Part of that problem has been that the legislation has kept evolving, and that has kept Dems from defining what it is to the public. The Pubs’ task has been far simpler - they’ve only had to say “Higher taxes, creeping socialism” etc. to “define” it. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/18 "2010-03-22T19:06:18Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > True. Part of that problem has been that the legislation has kept evolving, and that has kept Dems from defining what it is to the public. The Pubs’ task has been far simpler - they’ve only had to say “Higher taxes, creeping socialism” etc. to “define” it. It’s always easier for the Republicans. They get to lie about any and everything to do with the bill without consequence. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/19 "2010-03-22T19:30:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > …The earliest chance to repeal it would be in 2012, by which point enough people will have realized the benefits of it that repeal will be politically impossible. Which elements kick in by 2012? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2010, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300/20 "2010-03-22T20:49:05Z")
Not the departure of Obama and his veto pen, if it comes to that. But the short answer is “Not enough”. [The longer answer:](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/22/the-top-18-immediate-effe_n_508315.html) Pre-existing conditions for children Tax credits for businesses with less than 50 employees 50 percent of the donut hole closed Children covered by parent’s policy through age 26 No lifetime caps Temporary high-risk pool for adult pre-existing conditions New plans have no co-pays for checkups and preventive care No rescissions Insurance companies must report overhead rates Appeals processes on new plans Tax on tanning parlors New screening procedures for “waste, fraud, and abuse” (yes, I know) Medicare coverage for small rural health care facilities Tax limits on BC/BS More nutrition disclosures on restaurant menus (well, it’s something) Early-retiree coverage Better Web info Tax credits for “new therapies” More in later years. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hcr-where-do-we-go-from-here-both-politically-and-with-the-issue-in-general/533300.md?page=2)