# He didn't change his mind on the mandate **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 8, 2013, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666 "2013-10-08T08:17:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/281 "2013-10-15T19:02:32Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It’s the pretending that your thinking was well-reasoned at the time. It wasn’t. I’m sure I’ve made the same mistake, but hopefully, after the fact, I realized my thinking was idiotic. You should do the same- your thinking, at the time, was stupid. that much we can agree on. But it was thinking, not just blind recitation of other people’s talking points. Which is essentially what most people following Silver were doing. One can be right without thinking(Since others can sometimes do your thinking for you), and one can be wrong while thinking. As you can see here, the final RCP average was Obama +0.7%, significantly off from the final result. Silver correctly decided, through thinking and statistical analysis, that the state polls meant more than the national polls. The mistake that I made was in thinking the national polls were more important. Thus, on election night, I felt pretty good about Romneys’ chances only being down 0.7%. > **[2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney)** > > 2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/282 "2013-10-15T19:09:58Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I’m very familiar with reasoning. That’s how I know the skewed polls theory wasn’t reasoning. It was wishful thinking. The difference is that reasoning is altered as new facts are incorporated, but with wishful thinking the outcome never changes. Reasoning is a process and every step is checked. Wishful thinking is just blind hope - like the hope that the “everybody’s disappointed in Obama” narrative was true, or that that narrative would depress turnout and put Romney in office. Or that adaher will actually absorb any of this. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/283 "2013-10-15T19:10:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s not true. The conventional wisdom was that Obama would win less of the vote than he did in 2008 because he was no longer “special” and was relying on a mostly negative campaign. I know what the theory was. _It was a fucking stupid theory that didn’t make sense_. And you still believed it no matter how much that was explained to you. > [@](#): > > I challenged other posters to predict with confidence that indeed the electorate would look pretty much the same, which like the pollsters, was an issue most chose to not deal with. And you were wrong. Why does it matter that you were a blowhard about it? > [@](#): > > I also complained that despite the historic levels of Democratic turnout predicted by the polls, the media wasn’t commenting on such a historic outcome. You would think that would be a big story. it was in 2008. But the media had no confidence in that being the same for 2012. The whole reason Nate Silver is famous is that most people in the press don’t understand statistics and polling. What Chris Matthews and Sean Hannity said about the race didn’t mean shit, so you inference that this was significant is worthless. > [@](#): > > On this issue at least, you are clearly wrong. I did think about it, and I thought about it hard. I did tons of research. And I was still wrong. It happens. But to insist that I just thoughtlessly made an argument with nothing to back it up is ridiculous. And 100% wrong. You parroted the same nonsense a lot of other idiots did. There was no difference between your theory and theirs. You were not special. You were just as wrong as they were. ---
**Author:** ![Pashnish\_Ewing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8797f3/32.png) [@Pashnish\_Ewing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pashnish_Ewing)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/284 "2013-10-15T19:12:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The conventional wisdom was that Obama would win less of the vote than he did in 2008 because he was no longer “special” and was relying on a mostly negative campaign. Oh, yes. That’s all anyone [at Fox News] could talk about. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/285 "2013-10-15T19:15:22Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I know what the theory was. _It was a fucking stupid theory that didn’t make sense_. And you still believed it no matter how much that was explained to you. Actually, that part was uncontroversial and correct. Obama did do poorly in 2012 compared to 2008, but he still won. My side thought that disaffection with him would be enough. What we didn’t count on was that he was self-aware enough to get that and made sure the public was more disaffected with Mitt Romney. > [@](#): > > And you were wrong. Why does it matter that you were a blowhard about it? Well, if they were thinking about the issue, then they’d know what the poll internals said, and could decide for themselves if those internals were accurate. They chose not to. They were correct, but minus the thinking part. > [@](#): > > The whole reason Nate Silver is famous is that most people in the press don’t understand statistics and polling. What Chris Matthews and Sean Hannity said about the race didn’t mean shit, so you inference that this was significant is worthless. Let’s just say I’ll never doubt Silver again. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/286 "2013-10-15T19:19:03Z")
Serious question: During that debate, many here admitted that they were also wrong in 2004, that we were succumbing to the same wishful thinking. So, in the aftermath of the 2004 election, how were those who had predicted greater turnout to propel Kerry over the top treated? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/287 "2013-10-15T19:25:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, that part was uncontroversial and correct. Obama did do poorly in 2012 compared to 2008, but he still won. My side thought that disaffection with him would be enough. What we didn’t count on was that he was self-aware enough to get that and \*\*made sure the public was more disaffected with Mitt Romney. > \*\* Romney helped a great deal with that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/288 "2013-10-15T19:30:25Z")
Yeah, but Obama needed to help him a lot more than he did McCain. it was a lot like the 2004 election, with a sub-50% approval incumbent trying to do anything but make the campaign about his performance, and finding an great foil for his efforts. Heck, we even had the same outcome in the first debate, with the incumbent looking unprepared while the challenger cut him apart. And of course the belief that the polls were wrong.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/289 "2013-10-15T19:36:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Heck, we even had the same outcome in the first debate, with the incumbent looking unprepared while the challenger cut him apart. And of course the belief that the polls were wrong.🙂 Ever see an All-Star pitcher have a bad day when he can’t even get the opposing pitcher out? After that, Romney went 0-fer. ---
**Author:** ![Pashnish\_Ewing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8797f3/32.png) [@Pashnish\_Ewing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pashnish_Ewing)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/290 "2013-10-15T19:39:30Z")
The idea that Obama’s 2012 campaign was somehow more negative than average was also a load of Fox News horseshit. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/291 "2013-10-15T19:41:46Z")
"Especially since the quality on this board has fallen so much that I don’t feel like my presence is hurting it. " ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/292 "2013-10-15T19:42:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, that part was uncontroversial and correct. Obama did do poorly in 2012 compared to 2008, but he still won. No, numbnuts, he did not do poorly. The election was closer than his first election, but his performance was not poor. He won by about 5 million votes at a margin of 51% to 47%. It was closer than the 2008 election, which wasn’t too surprising, but he was the first president since Truman to win a majority of the vote twice. Stop trying to make your wrong prediction half-right. You are only confirming that you’re an idiot. > [@](#): > > My side thought that disaffection with him would be enough. So many fucking excuses. You were wrong because you were deluded and stupid, and by the way, that has not changed one whit. Remember all that Republican rebranding stuff and the minority outreach? It was in the toilet in about a month, so there’s a good chance the next election will look a lot like this one. Your prediction that minority turnout would decrease was wrong, and racial minority groups supported Obama at about the same clip they did in 2008. The only group he did significantly worse with was (non-minority) white people. > [@adaher](#): > > Heck, we even had the same outcome in the first debate, with the incumbent looking unprepared while the challenger cut him apart. And of course the belief that the polls were wrong.🙂 Except that in 2012 there was a lot of solid analysis that showed Romney was still probably going to lose even after that debate, and that’s exactly what happened. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/293 "2013-10-15T19:47:51Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > No, numbnuts, he did not do poorly. The election was closer than his first election, but his performance was not poor. He won by about 5 million votes at a margin of 51% to 47%. It was closer than the 2008 election, which wasn’t too surprising, but he was the first president since Truman to win a majority of the vote twice. Stop trying to make your wrong prediction half-right. You are only confirming that you’re an idiot. Why wouldn’t it be surprising? Historically, Presidents do better in their reelection when they win. And the fact that you can’t understand the basic concept of 2012\<2008, then I can’t help you. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/294 "2013-10-15T19:52:13Z")
It’s also stupid as hell for you to say I didn’t do work when I showed my work. This concept is simple enough that even a 4-year old could understand it. You do not. Draw your own conclusions. If you can stop long enough to form an original thought. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/295 "2013-10-15T19:55:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Why wouldn’t it be surprising? Historically, Presidents do better in their reelection when they win. Yes, they usually do. But presidents usually don’t take office when the opposition party is being blamed for a historic series of disasters (Iraq, Afghanistan, economic meltdown) and at the beginning of a prolonged economic slump. By definition that couldn’t happen twice. > [@adaher](#): > > It’s also stupid as hell for you to say I didn’t do work when I showed my work. You told the same story everybody in Skewed Polls land told. Tell me what work you did when your mistakes were indistinguishable from theirs. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/296 "2013-10-15T19:57:22Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > You told the same story everybody in Skewed Polls land told. Tell me what work you did when your mistakes were indistinguishably from theirs. I explained my reasoning in depth. Did you, or did you just say “Nate Silver says so, you’re an idiot”? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/297 "2013-10-15T20:03:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I explained my reasoning in depth. Again: everyone who believed the polls were skewed said the same things you did. You’ve insisted you didn’t just repeat their claims, so tell me how your version was different. > [@](#): > > Did you, or did you just say “Nate Silver says so, you’re an idiot”? Yes, I already explained why you were wrong. So did a lot of other people going back at least a year. And lo and behold, you’re pretending these weren’t real reasons. ---
**Author:** ![BrickaBracka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c5a1d2/32.png) [@BrickaBracka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrickaBracka)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/298 "2013-10-15T20:13:35Z")
**MARLEY**!! Hey!! Listen here, _whistles_, over here! I know it’s tough to see past the stupid, but for just a minute, stop talking. Recognize, please, that you are speaking with someone who is the very embodiment of the Dunning-Kruger study’s findings. Ok. Carry on. (I just had to make sure we were all on the same page here…) ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/299 "2013-10-15T20:16:03Z")
No, I know. He’s Otto from A Fish Called Wanda: he thinks he’s brilliant because he reads, but he’s not impressing anyone because you can see he doesn’t understand a word. Still, if he’s going to spout this kind of bullshit in dozens of threads I can take the time in one thread to tell him he’s a gibbering idiot. ---
**Author:** ![BrickaBracka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c5a1d2/32.png) [@BrickaBracka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrickaBracka)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/300 "2013-10-15T20:58:16Z")
I guess if you appreciate the mental exercise of punching a sandbag… But he’s never going to understand why he doesn’t understand. Because he doesn’t understand _understanding_. I’m not a heavy poster here, just a newb. But from what I gather, it’s a fruitless endeavor to try and teach the chronically confused. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666.md?page=16)