# He didn't change his mind on the mandate

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666>\
**Category:** The BBQ Pit\
**Created:** [October 8, 2013, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666 "2013-10-08T08:17:43Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 16

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**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [October 15, 2013, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/301 "2013-10-15T23:17:51Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> that much we can agree on. But it was thinking, not just blind recitation of other people’s talking points. Which is essentially what most people following Silver were doing. One can be right without thinking(Since others can sometimes do your thinking for you), and one can be wrong while thinking.

So now you know what we were thinking? Silver shows his work (except for the top-secret formula stuff), as does Sam Wang. We had good reasons to believe what we believed, and you didn’t. You may have been thinking, but it wasn’t good thinking- it was delusional, just like the 2004 poll deniers. Poll deniers have a bad track record, and you were doing it in 2012.

> [@](#):
>
> As you can see here, the final RCP average was Obama +0.7%, significantly off from the final result. Silver correctly decided, through thinking and statistical analysis, that the state polls meant more than the national polls. The mistake that I made was in thinking the national polls were more important. Thus, on election night, I felt pretty good about Romneys’ chances only being down 0.7%.
> 
> [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general\_election\_romney\_vs\_obama-1171.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html)

For one thing, that’s national polls, which don’t matter in a Presidential election. There’s not much point in looking at them except perhaps to see trends. For another, RCP weighs all polls equally, including some of the really bad nutbar ones. Silver and Wang do a good job of weighing different polls in different ways. You felt good on election night, but you shouldn’t have- the numbers were there for all to see. But you refused to see. It’s not that big a deal- if I hadn’t been deployed on a submarine in the leadup to the 2004 election, I might have been a Kerry-supporting poll denier myself. But afterwards I think I would have realized how delusional I was, and recognize that I wasn’t thinking rationally or reasonably. Right now, you’re refusing to admit that you were committing the very common mistake of deluding yourself with unfounded optimism. The Romney campaign themselves committed the same mistake. But they, and you, were not looking at it rationally or reasonably. You’ll be a wiser man once you admit this to yourself.

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**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\
**Post date:** [October 20, 2013, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-didnt-change-his-mind-on-the-mandate/670666/302 "2013-10-20T18:06:02Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Being wrong is a far lesser sin than being an asshole.

For some strange reason, a scene from the TV series ‘MASH’ suddenly popped into my head:

Margaret Houlihan: You lied to me, Frank! That’s worse than stealing.

Frank Burns: Well, I think that stealing is worse than lying.

Margaret: And you did both.

Frank: So I ought to know.

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