So now you know what we were thinking? Silver shows his work (except for the top-secret formula stuff), as does Sam Wang. We had good reasons to believe what we believed, and you didn’t. You may have been thinking, but it wasn’t good thinking- it was delusional, just like the 2004 poll deniers. Poll deniers have a bad track record, and you were doing it in 2012.
For one thing, that’s national polls, which don’t matter in a Presidential election. There’s not much point in looking at them except perhaps to see trends. For another, RCP weighs all polls equally, including some of the really bad nutbar ones. Silver and Wang do a good job of weighing different polls in different ways. You felt good on election night, but you shouldn’t have- the numbers were there for all to see. But you refused to see. It’s not that big a deal- if I hadn’t been deployed on a submarine in the leadup to the 2004 election, I might have been a Kerry-supporting poll denier myself. But afterwards I think I would have realized how delusional I was, and recognize that I wasn’t thinking rationally or reasonably. Right now, you’re refusing to admit that you were committing the very common mistake of deluding yourself with unfounded optimism. The Romney campaign themselves committed the same mistake. But they, and you, were not looking at it rationally or reasonably. You’ll be a wiser man once you admit this to yourself.