# He Hate Me Some Me FF Keeper League **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [April 29, 2008, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318 "2008-04-29T04:09:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BabaBooey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dfb087/32.png) [@BabaBooey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BabaBooey)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/41 "2008-09-04T01:26:36Z")
Varlos’ Zzzzzzz 1. (1) LaDainian Tomlinson 2. (23) Earnest Graham 3. (34) Chad Johnson 4. (48) Marvin Harrison 5. (65) Rashard Mendenhall 6. (74) Chris Chambers 7. (85) Chester Taylor 8. (109) Aaron Rodgers 9. (123) Philip Rivers 10. (126) Dallas Clark 11. (141) Baltimore 12. (155) Maurice Morris 13. (182) Dennis Northcutt 14. (196) Stephen Gostkowski 15. (197) Matt Leinart 16. (224) Randy McMichael LT can carry any team, and you’ve given him a potentially very good supporting cast. Graham could be a steal at the end of the second. CJ and Harrison are potentially a great WR corps. Chambers is solid and Chester could be your number 2 if AP gets hurt for an extended period, which is about 50/50 IMO. The first problem is that three of your top four players could be busts. Graham only showed flashes over a limited time, I’m not sure about that line in Tampa and Dunn for some reason I can see Dunn being a big carry thief down there. Harrison and CJ are old as hell and both have injury concerns. Harrison may have legal troubles as well, and Cincy’s offense looks like it could just be a mess. Palmer really didn’t play that well down the stretch. Your QB’s are mediocre at best. Grade: 7, with potential to be one of the top 2 or 3 teams. MunchsUrbanAchievers 1. (2) Adrian Peterson 2. (22) T.J. Houshmandzadeh 3. (35) Torry Holt 4. (55) Ricky Williams 5. (58) Calvin Johnson 6. (83) Steve Slaton 7. (86) Brett Favre 8. (111) Kenny Watson 9. (119) Tony Scheffler 10. (139) Chicago 11. (142) Antwaan Randle El 12. (167) Kolby Smith 13. (170) JaMarcus Russell 14. (195) Matt Ryan 15. (198) Mason Crosby 16. (223) Anthony Alridge A lower-middle class version of the team I just reviewed. AP actually has a higher ceiling than LT, but I I don’t see him playing more than 12 games. He was also innefective later last season. I don’t really like the pick, but anywhere from 2 to 5 is kind of a tough spot. Housh faces the same problems CJ faces, don’t know about that offense, but it’s definitely not a bad pick. Holt is in the same boat as Harrison in terms of age. He doesn’t face potential legal problems, but I don’t know if Bulger will last a full season behind that line. But much like CJ and Harrison, they have a lot of potential, and Calvin Johnson could be in that 750/8 range. Problem is you’re going to be starting him instead of a RB in that slot position. Ricky is a huge question mark with a fairly high ceiling, but he damn well could be a backup on a pretty bad team. Slaton may step up, but he likely won’t be anything special and he definitely won’t carry a full load. Favre is more likely to be in his 06 form than his 07, but he should still put up OK fantasy numbers. You picked Chicago kind of early I think, and I don’t see the point of having two projects in both Russell and Ryan, though I like Russell a lot more. Grade: 6. Pretty tough team to figure out, with pretty good potential but could be terrible if AP and his fragile body don’t make it through the season. Ricky has burned me too many times to like this team as anything more than a threat to sneak into the playoffs. New York Fanboys 1. (3) Joseph Addai 2. (26) Darren McFadden 3. (31) Reggie Bush 4. (54) Carson Palmer 5. (59) Jeremy Shockey 6. (82) Patrick Crayton 7. (87) Eli Manning 8. (110) Reggie Brown 9. (115) New York 10. (138) Dominic Rhodes 11. (143) Bryant Johnson 12. (166) Michael Bush 13. (171) Derrick Ward 14. (194) Jabar Gaffney 15. (199) Trent Edwards 16. (222) Rian Lindell If I had the second pick of the draft, I probably would have pinched my nose and taken Addai. He’s a TD machine and I like his YPC and overall production to increase despite some injuries to that line. McFadden and Bush have loads of talent, but both are parts of committees that could feature 3 or even 4 guys. Even if Jacobs goes down, Ward would split with Bradshaw I belive. I actually like both to be efficient players, but neither to be great fantasy players. Palmer threw for 18TD/18INT over the last 14 games. I like Shockey to help out the Saints offense, but I don’t know if he’ll put up THAT much better stats than he did in NY given how many options there are in NO. He is going to help Reggie for you, though. Crayton is a good pickup in the 6th. I don’t think the light has turned on in Eli’s head, though, and I keep waiting for Reggie Brown to be worth a shit, but it just doesn’t happen. Grade: 5. A wierd case where you need backups to get injured for your team really to be a contender. Baltimore Weirdos 1. (4) Brian Westbrook 2. (25) Ronnie Brown 3. (32) Drew Brees 4. (53) Jason Witten 5. (60) Lee Evans 6. (81) Donald Driver 7. (88) Deuce McAllister 8. (116) Ladell Betts 9. (127) Mark Clayton 10. (137) Jerry Porter 11. (144) Jake Delhomme 12. (165) Seattle 13. (172) Amani Toomer 14. (193) Zach Miller 15. (200) Matt Stover 16. (221) DeShaun Foster Westbrook obviously has injury concerns, but no problems with that. I hope Brown turns out as I am relying on him in one of my money leagues, but that draft was a week ago and I was hoping he would be traded. He supposedly has looked innefective in the preseason, but he looked quick and decisive against my Saints, and people forget that he was on a tear early last season. I’m borderline attracted to Brees. He’s going to be a top two fantasy QB, but at the expense of our boy Deuce, who has looked pretty bad in the preaseason until the Miami game. For my Saints sake, I hope he turns out well, and he should be the goalline guy. I like Evans to be a top 15 WR, but still inconsistant. I think Driver will take a backseat (HA!) to Jennings this season. Witten is probably the second best TE in the NFL now (I like Gates to rebound), but TEs early isn’t to my liking (I’d prefer to play a WR in that spot cough Colston cough) and I think you would have been better off picking up another guy that would get you some carries in case Brown doesn’t turn out well. Delhomme could have injury problems, but Brees hasn’t missed a game in a long time and doesn’t get sacked often, so you likely won’t need him. He could have a great season, though, and be good trade bait. Miller is a sneaky pick at TE, and I think Russell could target him often. I actually like Betts a lot, but I think Cartwright is supposed to be impressing the coaching staff. Grade: 7.5: Brown will probably make or break this team. You’ll flirt with the playoffs either way. Freshman 16 (RNATB) 1. (5) Marion Barber 2. (24) Willie Parker 3. (33) Kevin Smith 4. (52) Roy Williams 5. (61) Donovan McNabb 6. (80) Joey Galloway 7. (89) Benjamin Watson 8. (108) Matt Schaub 9. (117) Ahmad Bradshaw 10. (136) D.J. Hackett 11. (145) Adam Vinatieri 12. (160) Leon Washington 13. (173) Donte’ Stallworth 14. (188) Indianapolis 15. (201) Deion Branch 16. (220) Carnell Williams I like Barber to make the smooth transition to getting a pretty large majority of the carries. Can’t argue with the pick. Parker is just a wierd player this year. He was good for loads of yardage last season, but never scored. Who knows how much of his production Mendenhall will eat into. Kevin Smith is a pretty good pick in the 3rd. Probably won’t be anything spectacular in that pass first offense that hasn’t had a good running game in I can’t even remember how long, but he’ll get you carries and he’ll be more effective than a second tier WR, which is what most people are going after there. Roy Williams is the exact type of WR most of those people are getting in the 3rd, and I like him a lot there. 1200/10 is a perfectly reasonable expectation, and he’s not getting penalized for Kina’s INTs. I don’t like McNabb there, but he obviously has pretty big potential, and Schaub is a perfect backup. Galloway could be a steal if they get decent enough QB play in Tampa. And I really like Branch in the second to last round. I kept looking back at him for a lot of the latter rounds, but didn’t feel right getting him when I already had Burleson. Branch could help you out quite a bit in the second half of the season if Parker doesn’t turn out well and you need someone for the RB/WR slot. Grade: 7.5 Practically identical to the team above, your RB2 will make the difference in being a playoff contender and being a top two or three team. CedricBensonBusts 1. (6) Steven Jackson 2. (28) Brandon Jacobs 3. (29) Thomas Jones 4. (51) Greg Jennings 5. (62) Julius Jones 6. (79) Jon Kitna 7. (90) Nate Burleson 8. (107) Kurt Warner 9. (118) David Patten 10. (135) Tim Hightower 11. (146) Pittsburgh 12. (163) Kevin Walter 13. (174) Donald Lee 14. (191) Pierre Thomas 15. (202) Josh Scobee 16. (219) Tennessee I feel very comfortable with my RB situation, even if one of my top 3 goes down. I think Julius Jones, while nothing special, is the primary ball carrier in what is usually a pretty good offense. Kitna and Warner should throw loads of TD’s, but I do have to worry about each of them finishing the season if their teams are not doing well (even if they are). Burleson = WR version of Julius Jones. Hightower could even be a big contributor if Edge goes down, but he is basically my Brandon Jacobs pick of two years ago: steal some TDs and take the job over in a year or two. I am worried about my WRs, though. Grade: 8.0, RBs see a lot more injuries than WRs, and I think I can take the loss really well. Even if every team stays healthy, I like my team to make the playoffs. ---
**Author:** ![BabaBooey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dfb087/32.png) [@BabaBooey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BabaBooey)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/42 "2008-09-04T01:27:41Z")
Fourth and Nineteen 1. (7) Tom Brady 2. (27) Andre Johnson 3. (30) Edgerrin James 4. (50) Selvin Young 5. (63) DeAngelo Williams 6. (78) Kevin Curtis 7. (91) John Carney 8. (106) Billy Volek 9. (114) Matt Gutierrez 10. (134) Matt Cassel 11. (147) J.T. O’Sullivan 12. (162) Bruce Gradkowski 13. (175) Charlie Batch 14. (190) Owen Daniels 15. (203) Jim Sorgi 16. (218) Kerry Collins Ouch. If you were to have no injury problems whatsoever, you could sneak into the middle of the pack. But I know Brady won’t put up similar numbers to last season, even if he is the top fantasy QB (he very well may be). Andre isn’t a bad pick there. Edge is a solid #2/great #3, but not a #1 RB and I could see him splitting carries with Hightower pretty evenly. Who knows whats up with Denver RBs, and DeAngelo is solid, but will also split carries about 50/50. Grade: 3 Moridwon (Hamlet) 1. (8) Frank Gore 2. (21) Marques Colston 3. (36) Steve Smith 4. (49) Maurice Jones-Drew 5. (64) Matt Hasselbeck 6. (77) Chris Perry 7. (92) Marc Bulger 8. (105) Todd Heap 9. (120) Michael Turner 10. (133) Vernon Davis 11. (148) Jerious Norwood 12. (161) Jacksonville 13. (176) Matt Jones 14. (189) Justin Gage 15. (204) Rob Bironas 16. (217) Ronald Curry Gore should be solid. Not as good as his breakout season, but better than last. I also like Colston, but with so many weapons in NO, his catches and TDs may go down, but his numbers could still improve over his other two seasons. He missed 4 games his rookie year, and pretty much missed the first 4 last season when the whole offense sucked hardcore. Love the Steve Smith pick, even with missing a few games. Mojo could be a monster if he gets the carries, Turner should be solid and Perry could be a nice plug in if someone gets hurt. Hasselbeck won’t have all of his weapons at his disposal early on, but he’ll be good down the stretch. Bulger at worst will be an adequate backup and for all we know, he could return to top 5 QB form. Grade: 8.5. Not huge on Gore. Ryan Grant at that spot and I would love this team. Not that either of you would necessarily do it, but I would be talking to Carmen about a Gore/Colston for Grant/Wayne trade. Omni’s Omnipotents 1. (9) Randy Moss 2. (20) Jamal Lewis 3. (37) Matt Forte 4. (56) Ben Roethlisberger 5. (57) Jerricho Cotchery 6. (76) Roddy White 7. (93) Chris Johnson 8. (104) Reggie Williams 9. (121) Kevin Jones 10. (132) DeSean Jackson 11. (149) Alge Crumpler 12. (164) Chad Pennington 13. (177) Drew Bennett 14. (192) Sidney Rice 15. (205) Green Bay 16. (216) Robert Meachem Moss should still be good for 15 TDs. I really expected Lewis to suck last year, and he was a pleasant surprise. Don’t expect he or Cleveland to be as good, but he’s not a bad pick there. Forte is more of a #3 RB than a 2, especially given that he may not even start, but I like him. Big Ben won’t repeat the ~35 TD performance of last season. Other than Meachem as a great keeper, I don’t see much to be excited about. Grade: 6. I would be surprised if you finished outside of the 7-10 range. Crabby Hermits 1. (10) Clinton Portis 2. (19) Larry Fitzgerald 3. (38) Plaxico Burress 4. (47) Tony Romo 5. (66) Hines Ward 6. (75) Felix Jones 7. (94) Heath Miller 8. (103) New England 9. (122) Chris Brown 10. (131) Vince Young 11. (150) Devin Hester 12. (159) Correll Buckhalter 13. (178) Limas Sweed 14. (187) Nate Kaeding 15. (206) Sammy Morris 16. (215) Bobby Engram I’ve never been a huge Portis fan, but I like him more this season than in the past and he is a decent choice at 10. Fitz will be good, but I never really like the Arizona WRs because you never know which one will be the guy. Not a huge fan of Burress but he makes a good #2 WR. Romo should be a top 5 QB, and luckily for you FF playoffs are in the NFL’s regular season. Ward is a pretty good blocking WR, so you’ve got that going for you. I like Heath Miller a lot, but you reached. Felix Jones as your #2 RB and Chris Brown as your #3 spells trouble. I don’t see Hester being a very good WR, and you don’t want to rely on a guy getting you points on special teams Grade: 5. Portis and Romo will win you some games, but I don’t see this team being very good at all. Shut Your Mouth Abel 1. (11) Marshawn Lynch 2. (18) Willis McGahee 3. (39) Anquan Boldin 4. (46) Tony Gonzalez 5. (67) San Diego 6. (84) Anthony Gonzalez 7. (95) Jay Cutler 8. (102) Nick Folk 9. (112) Rudi Johnson 10. (130) Javon Walker 11. (151) Dallas 12. (158) Tatum Bell 13. (179) Dwayne Bowe 14. (186) Shayne Graham 15. (207) L.J. Smith 16. (214) Alex Smith Lynch did me well last season, don’t like him this season. That Oline is a mess, Lynch only averaged 4.0ypc last season so it will take a lot of wear to get production out of him, and his TD production wasn’t spectacular. Not a fan of McGahee either, that offense will be a mess. Boldin isn’t really much different statistically than Fitz, so he’s a solid pick there. Tony Gonzo would be a nice pick there 5 years ago. He may get a decent number of catches, but he’s aging and his QB sucks. That hurts the pretty talented Bowe, as well. Gonzalez may be decent enough. Meh, just going to stop there. Grade: 5. Unspectacular. Spiritus Mundane 1. (12) Terrell Owens 2. (17) Laurence Maroney 3. (40) Fred Taylor 4. (45) Kellen Winslow 5. (68) Braylon Edwards 6. (73) Derek Anderson 7. (96) Justin Fargas 8. (101) Ted Ginn Jr. 9. (124) Andre Hall 10. (129) Wes Welker 11. (152) Jeff Garcia 12. (157) Warrick Dunn 13. (180) Greg Olsen 14. (185) Tampa Bay 15. (208) Neil Rackers 16. (213) Brady Quinn TO should be the #2 WR again. Would have gone with LJ or Grant, but he’s not a bad pick for that part of the draft. Maroney should be solid. I expect the Pats to run the ball more next season, and he’s been effective when given the chance. That hurts your boy Welker a bit, though he should still play pretty well. No idea about Taylor, butI would guess Mojo would be getting most of the production there. Winslow and Braylon are both good players, but I expect the offense as a whole to take a step back. Anderson played pretty poorly in the second half of last season. Garcia is an underrated player, but not a very good fantasy QB. Fargas played well last season, but he’ll be second fiddle to Run DMC. Grade: 5.5. I’m not high on Cleveland’s offense, so this could be a bit higher. Regardless, you don’t have much in terms of #2 RB, and your #1 is no sure thing. Fightin’ Quakers 1. (13) Peyton Manning 2. (16) Larry Johnson 3. (41) LenDale White 4. (44) Santonio Holmes 5. (69) Chris Cooley 6. (72) Laveranues Coles 7. (97) Ray Rice 8. (100) Santana Moss 9. (125) Brandon Marshall 10. (128) Vincent Jackson 11. (153) Jason Campbell 12. (156) Isaac Bruce 13. (181) Philadelphia 14. (184) Darren Sproles 15. (209) Brandon Jackson 16. (212) Kris Brown Manning is a riskier than normal pick, but I expect him to remain a top 3 fantasy QB. KC’s offense will be a mess, but LJ is a great pick there. I don’t know what to think of Lenwhale, but he should have decent production and get most of the goalline carries. I like Santurdio, Cooley, and Coles in that run on pass catchers, but you should have gotten another RB in there instead since you were keeping Marshall (who I like a lot) and White’s role is too clear. Grade: 6.5. Solid and safe, but will need another team to be disappointing if you want to make the playoffs. CarMenace 1. (14) Ryan Grant 2. (15) Reggie Wayne 3. (42) Jonathan Stewart 4. (43) Antonio Gates 5. (70) David Garrard 6. (71) Bernard Berrian 7. (98) Ahman Green 8. (99) Derrick Mason 9. (113) James Hardy 10. (140) Minnesota 11. (154) Joe Flacco 12. (168) Adrian Peterson 13. (169) Eddie Royal 14. (183) Tarvaris Jackson 15. (210) Leonard Pope 16. (211) David Akers Love Grant at that spot, as I think he should be a top 5 fantasy RB despite losing Favre. Wayne is a nice pick. Love Stewart’s talent, but he may just get about a third of the carries. Gates is probably going to be the top TE again, but it’s still too early for one IMO. Took Garrard way too early. Flacco and Tarvaris as your backups is a really, really bad situation to be in. Like Berrian as a player, not so much as a fantasy player at that spot. Ahman is done. The other AP may actually sneak into the starting role in Chicago from what I’ve seen of their play at RB, but doubtful. Grade: 5.5. I love the first two picks, but it was downhill from there. ---
**Author:** ![Spiritus\_Mundi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c68b51/32.png) [@Spiritus\_Mundi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiritus_Mundi)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/43 "2008-09-04T06:18:44Z")
First, Thanks to all of you doing the draft reviews. I’d love to do my own, and may even find time to do so before Saturday . . . Tatum Bell might get another job in the NFL, too. > [@](#): > > Spiritus Mundane > > 1. (12) Terrell Owens > 2. (17) Laurence Maroney > 3. (40) Fred Taylor > 4. (45) Kellen Winslow > 5. (68) Braylon Edwards This player is a keeper. > 6. (73) Derek Anderson > 7. (96) Justin Fargas > 8. (101) Ted Ginn Jr. > 9. (124) Andre Hall > 10. (129) Wes Welker This player is a keeper. > 11. (152) Jeff Garcia > 12. (157) Warrick Dunn > 13. (180) Greg Olsen This player is a keeper. > 14. (185) Tampa Bay > 15. (208) Neil Rackers > 16. (213) Brady Quinn > > Best Pick: Edwards and Welker as keepers gave this team an outstanding start. Add in nice value (if you like him) in Derek Anderson, and Jeff Garcia, and a nice sleeper in Andre Hall, and this team made some good moves. > > Worst Pick: TO. I know, I know, it’s hard to call TO a wasted pick, but when you’ve kept two top 20 WR’s in Edwards and Welker, using your number one on another WR, no matter how good, isn’t good value. Manning, Grant, or Johnson would have been a better pick. And Maroney is not, and will likely never be, a #1 RB. Unless Bellicheck plans to surprise his opponents by loading up on Maroney, this team will suffer. > > Strengths: Clearly the receiving positions. Owens, Edwards, Welker, Winslow, Ginn and Olson is one hell of a lineup for catching the ball. If the trend of more passing scores continues, it’s a nice setup to have. > > Weaknesses: RB. Taylor is a year older, Fargas has to compete with McFadden/Bush, Maroney isn’t spotlighted enough, and Dunn is a part timer and backup. > > Overall: If wide receivers begin to dominate the fantasy football scene, this team will be right up there. But I just don’t see that happening. Still, the strength of the team may overcome the weaknesses. > > Movie Rating: Wanted. Talk about putting all your money on one thing. While Angelina Jolie (or the receiving positions) are hot and flashy, I don’t think it’s enough to carry an otherwise pedestrian movie. TO my worst pick? This from a man who purports to follow a Best Player Available drafting strategy? There’s something rotten in the state of Denmark. And methinks it is thine philophical consistency. And also thine undershorts - dude, you’re carrying the whole middle ages schtik a bit too far. First round is as much (more, in my case) about risk avoidance as it is about outrageous upside. That’s why is LT a lock at #1 and everyone is afraid to bet their season on AP. T.O. is risky as hell on a real life team, but in fantasy football he is rock solid and the top playmaker on one of the most explosive offense in the league. Let’s look at the next 6 players taken off the board: [ul][li] **Manning** Line injuries and surgery rehab - this was my toughest call, but I expected plenty of QB value to be available in rounds 5-7[/li][li] **Grant** Less than 1 season of production, hammy?, change in QB will mean more congestion in the box – but I just don’t trust him this year, really[/li][li] **Wayne** Peyton’s injury, but I like hime anyway. Just not as much as TO[/li][li] **L.J.** Injury, Brody, horrible line, exhausted by earlier workload . . . take you pick, I wasn’t taking him at pick #12[/li][li] **Maroney** Great run to end the season, but was injured last year and has never carried the load for a full year solo. I ended up grabbing him at #17, and even that was a bit of a stretch.[/ul][/li]If Manning’s injury & line situation didn’t worry me, I would probably have grabbed him, even though I believe the QB position has more mid round values this year than any other. Except for Manning, though, it wasn’t even close. T.O. was clearly the best pick. You simply have to give up the idea that position matters in the flex. The choice I made was to line up Wes Welker in the flex all year. I’ll live with that match up against any team’s #3 RB and will almost certainly enjoy a positional advantage. My RB’s are clearly the weakest position on my team, but I only need 2 productive backs on any given week. Maroney averaged over 90 yds and 1 TD a game in his last 6 games last year, and that’s including 2 games against the Giants D when they were shutting down teh run as wll as anybody in the league. Sure, Fred Taylor is a year older, but he ended last year on an incredible stretch. His last 5 regular season games: 636 total yards, 4 TD’s and a yards per carry average above 7.5. Fargas will certainly lose carries to the stud rookie, but he only started 9 games last year and put up 1000 & 4. He’s still the starter in Oakland, and while he may be destined to be this year’s Chester Taylor - I feel fine with him as a bye week sub in weeks 4 and 5. Hall is a flyer and Dunn is an emergency stopgap. If I start either one this year I am likely in trouble. Wanted was a horrible movie. I see my team more as a Juno (Yeah, I know it came out in 2007, but I don’t get to the movies much and just saw it a few months ago.) It’s quirky, with an unusual slant on things, but holds nothing back and isn’t afraid to take chances. The story is thin and contrivance sometimes overwhelms characterization but if the young and hip vibe holds true it will sweep into the awards season. ---
**Author:** ![Spiritus\_Mundi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c68b51/32.png) [@Spiritus\_Mundi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiritus_Mundi)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/44 "2008-09-04T07:48:38Z")
> [@](#): > > Spiritus Mundane > > 1. (12) Terrell Owens > 2. (17) Laurence Maroney > 3. (40) Fred Taylor > 4. (45) Kellen Winslow > 5. (68) Braylon Edwards > 6. (73) Derek Anderson > 7. (96) Justin Fargas > 8. (101) Ted Ginn Jr. > 9. (124) Andre Hall > 10. (129) Wes Welker > 11. (152) Jeff Garcia > 12. (157) Warrick Dunn > 13. (180) Greg Olsen > 14. (185) Tampa Bay > 15. (208) Neil Rackers > 16. (213) Brady Quinn > > TO should be the #2 WR again. Would have gone with LJ or Grant, but he’s not a bad pick for that part of the draft. Maroney should be solid. I expect the Pats to run the ball more next season, and he’s been effective when given the chance. That hurts your boy Welker a bit, though he should still play pretty well. No idea about Taylor, butI would guess Mojo would be getting most of the production there. Winslow and Braylon are both good players, but I expect the offense as a whole to take a step back. Anderson played pretty poorly in the second half of last season. Garcia is an underrated player, but not a very good fantasy QB. Fargas played well last season, but he’ll be second fiddle to Run DMC. > > Grade: 5.5. I’m not high on Cleveland’s offense, so this could be a bit higher. Regardless, you don’t have much in terms of #2 RB, and your #1 is no sure thing. I don’t know why you would be down on Cleveland’s offense. They have strong line play and an outstanding collection of skill players. Only Lewis has significant mileage on his tires. Winslow has injury history but has played in 16 games each of the last 2 years. Anderson enters his 3rd year in the league as the unquestioned starter for the first time. Sure his play declined at the end of last season, but what suffered most in the second half was his completion percentage/QB rating. In his last 8 games he had 5 multi TD outings and threw for 250+ five times. Even his 2 _horrible_ games (PIT and CIN) he managed to put up 5 TD’s to offset his horrible yardage and 4 INT. People forget that he was essentially a roster filler who had never been intended to start, didn’t get the bulk of work in camp, and then got tossed into the fire when the Fryeing pan melted down before Quinn the Eskimo was frosty. I expect him to easily repeat his numbers from last year (except perhaps the running scores – bad idea young Mr. Concussion-Target.). which also means his receivers should get plenty of opportunities. What sucks horribly in Cleveland is the defense, especially the secondary. That will keep the Browns out of the playoffs again, but should lead to nice high-scoring fantasy nirvana. I am absolutely fine with Fred Taylor as my #2 RB. In the 2 years MoJo has been in Jax, he has gotten 166 and 167 carries. Taylor has gotten 231 & 223. Taylor’s rushing yards per game and yards per carry were both up last year (career high YPC, actually). Why would you conclude that Jax is going to significantly shift the way they distribute carries? Where Taylor lost touches was in the receiving game. That’s okay. I’ll happily take 1200 yds and 5 TD from my #2 RB. Are there better running back combos in the league? Sure – going RB-RB-RB will do that for a team. What it won’t do is give anyone a receiving corps that can match up with TO & Braylon. RBs no longer dominate WR in fantasy scoring. The top 1 or 2, sure, but not beyond. And only 1 team gets to pick LT. Last year, 4 of the top 10 scorers (RB/WR) were WR. 12 of the top 25. As it turns out, 3 of those 12 are on my team. Think anyone has 3 of the top 13 RB? Oh, and Fargas will become second fiddle eventually, almost certainly. But Fargas (and his nice new contract) is still the starter for now. Thankfully my tough bye weeks are 4 and 5. Also, thankfully, the Browns play the Bungle in week 4 and the Pats play the Niners in week 5, so maybe they can cover each other’s bye weeks. Okay – no real chance at that. Do I need some things to hold together in order to return to my rightful dominance of you chumps? Absolutely – everyone does in a league of this quality and size. But the core of my team comes from 3 of the top 6 offenses in fantasy football. I’ll take that bet and see you in the playoffs. Well, not you personally Mr. I-Draft-Alphabetically-starting-with-J. Talk about a gimmick draft! Neither Jones brother remembers how to spell burst, much less produce one. By mid-season you’re likely to be stressing over whether to play Patten or Walter as your Flex and praying that Warner stays upright so you don’t have to play Kitna. The only 8 you’ll see is the section 8 you’ve earned for thinking this team was a lock for the playoffs. 5.5 my kool-aid drinking, BPA drafting, pass-happy praying, aerial-attack arraying ass. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 10:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/45 "2008-09-04T10:00:20Z")
> [@RNATB](#): > > 1. E. Graham- bit of a reach, IMHO . . . He’s not fast, he’s not particularly strong, and he’s not a great receiver. Maybe not, but he **is** the starting RB on a playoff team who played well last year and has no one behind him on the depth chart who can be considered a competent starter. You could make a case for Willie Parker instead, but I think his wheels are in the process of falling off. > [@](#): > > 1. Chad Ocho Johnson Cinco- He’s really, really good. He’s also really, really injured . . . High risk, but high potential reward. I don’t think taking a risk with a 3rd-rounder is worth it. > > 2. Marvin Harrison- . . . I do think he’s a bit of a reach here, but a good pick in general. 7 There’s a lot of risk involved with both of these guys, but all the wideouts taken after Chad have similar risk issues (except perhaps Plaxico, who has upside issues). These guys have just been phenomenally productive in awesome offenses for many years now, and until we see some real football games that suggest that’s not going to continue, I think they’re good bets. > [@](#): > > 1. Rashard Mendenhall- Not a horrible pick, but not a good one either- and I’ll change my tune if wins a significant role in the offense. 6 Between passing on Fast Willie in the 2nd and taking Mendenhall in the 5th, I think it’s obvious what I think about Pittsburgh’s RB corps. > [@](#): > > 1. Aaron Rodgers- As your #1 QB? Really? Eek, man. 2 > > 2. Philip Rivers- Oh, well I guess that’s okay then. Actually, I think Rodgers may put up very Rivers-like numbers: 3500/20/15, which makes him a borderline starter. But, then again, he may put up Alex Smith numbers. In any case, these picks should be reversed. 7 Here’s the thing about Rodgers: obviously he’s a bit of a mystery to us, but the Packers seemed happy enough to push Favre out the door. Much more importantly, he’s on an excellent offense. The Green Bay receivers led the league in YAC last year, so he’ll get lots of help, and the offense as a whole will move well enough to give him 25 TDs or so, and all he has to do to reap the rewards is not play horrible. If he’s just ok, he’ll put up the numbers of a good QB. Rivers is in a similar situation, to a lesser extent. > [@](#): > > 1. Baltimore- Too old, too hyped, and with an offense that will put them in goal-to-go situations all year. Possibly not even a starting-caliber D, let alone the 2nd one off the board, ideally. Going with Football Outisiders on this one. They have Baltimore as the top defense (both in fantasy and real life), so I’ll trust them to be good. That said I think I did take them a bit earlier than I had to; I just overestimated how much interest there would be from other players. > [@Hamlet](#): > > Weaknesses: I’m not impressed with the depth, which isn’t a surprise considering there are 14 teams in the league. But with 2 starting WR with injury risks, 3 mediocre QB’s (tough decision each week on who to start), and a lot of RB’s sharing time, I think this team will be hard pressed to ever dominate. > > Overall: He’ll always have a chance with LT, but you can really see why he wanted to trade out of the #1 spot because the depth isn’t there. Could easily make the playoffs if he gets lucky (A. Peterson getting injured will really help this team) and stays healthy. > > Movie Rating: Hancock. A lot riding on one star, but that star is pretty damn good. Note my post-draft trade with Omni, Mendenhall for Cotchery straight-up. At this point, I don’t think depth is much of a problem at all. My RB starters are reasonably entrenched plus I have a 3rd starter (M. Morris) on the bench and one of the better true backup RBs as a flyer. I’ve got 4 solid WR starters, and two QBs who are healthy, entrenched, and helming top tier offenses (they don’t have a ton of upside, but neither are they very risky). > [@BabaBooey](#): > > LT can carry any team, and you’ve given him a potentially very good supporting cast. Graham could be a steal at the end of the second. CJ and Harrison are potentially a great WR corps. Chambers is solid and Chester could be your number 2 if AP gets hurt for an extended period, which is about 50/50 IMO. The first problem is that three of your top four players could be busts. Graham only showed flashes over a limited time, I’m not sure about that line in Tampa and Dunn for some reason I can see Dunn being a big carry thief down there. Harrison and CJ are old as hell and both have injury concerns. Harrison may have legal troubles as well, and Cincy’s offense looks like it could just be a mess. Palmer really didn’t play that well down the stretch. Your QB’s are mediocre at best. > > Grade: 7, with potential to be one of the top 2 or 3 teams. I think this pretty much hits the nail on the head. I’m more sanguine about Earnest Graham, but my team will sink or swim based on my 3rd and 4th Round WRs, Ocho Cinco and Marvin Harrison. Huge variance for both. They could each put up 600/4TD, or 1500/12TD, or anything in between, and no one would be too surprised. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/46 "2008-09-04T12:19:25Z")
Ok, I don’t have the wherewithal to do reviews for 12 more teams, especially now that three others are doing it. So I think I’ll just do reviews for the guys who reviewed my team ( **RNATB, Hamlet, and BabaBooey** ), and, for kicks, I’ll do each review in the style they themselves used. Then I’ll take a shot at predicting the standings in our league according to points scored. I’d be interested in seeing other people do the same, just so we can compare at the en of the season. **Freshman 16 (RNATB)** **1. (5) Marion Barber –** R-r-r-r-r-r-each! The Fantasy Football Orthodoxy has Stephen Jackson going here (with a big drop-off after pick 5), and I don’t see any reason to disregard it and take a Barber instead. If, for whatever reason, you choose to deviate from the script and not take Jackson, is should be to take Brady or Moss instead. I can understand not being wild about SJ (I’m not), and I can even understand liking Barber better (I don’t), but here’s why this is a bad pick: You could have had Barber **plus** something else. Leading up to fantasy draft season, the first question asked or answered by every expert or publication was: “Who do you take with the 6th pick?” LdT/AP/Jackson/Westbrook/Addai were 1-5 in some order according to almost everyone, and it wasn’t close (Jackson is actually 3rd in that last according to Yahoo’s average draft position). You should have taken Jackson and then offered to trade with whoever wound up with Barber (by a pretty strong consensus the expected 8th pick in the draft), who almost certainly would have preferred Jackson to one degree or another. Even if you could only upgrade another part of your roster by a little bit, it would have been an easy, no downside upgrade you could have been very confident of pulling off. **2** **2. (10) Willie Parker –** I personally don’t like Parker this year – Mendenhall could take as many as half the carries, including all the goalline touches, and Pittsburgh’s O-line figures to be poor. That said I could be wrong, and it’s not a bad pick considering what was left (Ronnie Brown, Darren McFadden, Thomas Jones). **5.5** **3. Kevin Smith –** Here’s where you lose me. This smacks of someone hell-bent on going RB-RB-RB. Sure he’s a starter, but he’s a 3rd Round rookie on a bad team (and a pass oriented offense). What’s his upside? 900/8? That would be a surprisingly good season for him. His expectation really isn’t far removed from RBs taken 20-30 picks later. Instead, there was a whole tier of WRs taken just after this pick (Johnson, Holt, Smith, Burress, Boldin, Holmes), and surely one of them was to your liking. **2** **4. Roy Williams –** That’s more like it. Lot’s of upside, low risk, and a \*very \*good value – average draft position would put him at the end of our 2nd Round; instead, he goes at the end of the 4th. Absolutely the BPA. **9.5** **5. Donovan McNabb –** I approve. Good value, and the Eagles offense could be very good. Likely the BPA once again. **8.5** \*\*6. Joey Galloway – \*\*The mere fact of his age (36) implies a high degree of risk, but his performance can’t be ignored and this is a good pick. I’d have gone with Driver instead (picked immediately after this), but it’s close either way. A very respectable #2 WR. **6.5** **7. Benjamin Watson –** Legitimately high upside, but also a bit of a reach in the 7th. There were only two TEs taken between this pick and **RNATB** ’s pick in the 9th (Heap and Miller), and both of them were more highly regarded than Watson by consensus, so he likely would have been available 28 picks from here. Still, not a terrible lottery ticket. **5** **8. Matt Schaub –** Good pick. A decent 2nd QB is necessary with high-Volatility McNabb as #1, and if he has a full season with Andre Johnson he could be excellent. **7** **9. Ahmad Bradshaw –** I don’t get it. He’s the Giants 3rd string RB, and he doesn’t even appear to be the teams primary kick or punt returner this year. The guys in front of him have injury issues, but chances are Bradshaw is looking at a lot 3 or 4 carry days. A look at his average draft position reveals that this is actually about where he’s expected to go, but in this case I don’t care. This is just way too early. **2.5** **10. D.J. Hackett –** A much better gamble. Sure he’ll most likely miss half the season, but if he somehow stays on the field he’ll be a steal. **6** **11. Adam Vinatieri –** I just don’t cotton to taking Kickers before the last two round, and especially not to taking them before the last **five**. Look for a keeper or WR depth with this pick instead. **2** **12. Leon Washington –** Very nice. Washington gets a decent number of carries as a backup (and is very productive with those touches), he’s behind only a 30 year old starter who’s a good candidate for injury/decline (making him a nice keeper possibility as well), and in the meantime he returns kicks. Leon helped my team a ton last year: he was the 23rd ranked RB in this league. **9** **13. Donte’ Stallworth –** Given his history I think he’s just a guy – high-flying offense last year, but I’m hard-pressed to come up with a scenario in which Stallworth gets a puts up big numbers. Nonetheless, a good value in the 13th. **6** **14. Indianapolis –** Did well last year, but that doesn’t necessarily tell us much about this year. In most leagues they go undrafted. Green Bay would’ve been better. **4** **15. Deion Branch –** Still not 100% recovered from a knee injury. It’s tempting to think he “could be big if healthy,” but we basically know he’s not healthy, and he was underwhelming last year before getting hurt. Still has some potential as a keeper; of course, so did a lot of other players. **4.5** **16. Carnell Williams –** Interesting keeper, but IMO a low-percentage one nonetheless. Prediction: **RNATB** cuts him to free up the roster spot after 5 or 6 weeks. **4.5** **Overall –** It’s actually a very solid team. I think a high-proportion of the picks were basically wasted, but there’s a ton of value in those mid-round picks and the draft fits together well as a whole, yielding a well-rounded team. **7.5** ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/47 "2008-09-04T12:59:25Z")
**Moridwon (Hamlet)** 1. (8) Frank Gore 2. (21) Marques Colston 3. (36) Steve Smith 4. (49) Maurice Jones-Drew This player is a keeper. 5. (64) Matt Hasselbeck 6. (77) Chris Perry 7. (92) Marc Bulger 8. (105) Todd Heap 9. (120) Michael Turner This player is a keeper. 10. (133) Vernon Davis 11. (148) Jerious Norwood 12. (161) Jacksonville 13. (176) Matt Jones 14. (189) Justin Gage 15. (204) Rob Bironas 16. (217) Ronald Curry Best Pick: Not counting the fantastic keepers, either Marques Colston (2) or Jerious Norwood (11). Granted Norwood is a hand-cuff for Turner, but he has value (both this year and next) in his own right. Worst Pick: Frank Gore (1). His team is just awful, putting a strict limit on the kinds of fantasy points he can produce. It’s telling that in his huge 2006 he put up 1700 yards, but could only manage 8 TDs. And he won’t rush for 1700 yards this year. Any of the next 5 picks (Moss, Portis, Lynch, Owens, Manning) would have been preferable. Strengths: Yep, great RBs. Gore, MJD, and Turner provide some guaranteed production, and Norwood and Perry have upside. Weaknesses: Like **Hamlet** said, WR depth. There are only 2 WRs on this team. They’re good starters, but still. Overall: Probably the best team in the league, for obvious reasons. However, a troubling thought: a lot of the team relies on mediocre or outright bad offenses. Gore, Turner, Norwood, Heap, Vernon Davis, Justin Gage, and Ronald Curry are all in pretty crummy situations, and only Marques Colston is on an obviously \*good \*offense. Movie Rating: Are you kidding, I have to come up with an analogous movie? Alright, I’ll go the flattering route and say **The Dark Knight** – great ensemble cast, and it will probably crush the competition, but it takes place in such a depressing context (Gotham, San Fran’s offense, same thing). ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/48 "2008-09-04T13:16:54Z")
CedricBensonBusts (BabeBooey) 1. (6) Steven Jackson 2. (28) Brandon Jacobs 3. (29) Thomas Jones 4. (51) Greg Jennings 5. (62) Julius Jones 6. (79) Jon Kitna 7. (90) Nate Burleson 8. (107) Kurt Warner 9. (118) David Patten 10. (135) Tim Hightower 11. (146) Pittsburgh 12. (163) Kevin Walter 13. (174) Donald Lee 14. (191) Pierre Thomas 15. (202) Josh Scobee 16. (219) Tennessee Great starting RBs – Jacobs is nice keeper, and you lucked out when **RBATB** booted the 5th pick by taking Barber instead of Steven Jackson – though I would have gotten a handcuff for Jacobs (Ward), as he’s almost a lock to miss 3 or 4 games. I drafted Maurice Morris (the nominal starter in Seattle right now), so I think (and hope) your pick of Julius Jones is a waste; doesn’t really matter, though, with Jacobs/Jackson/T. Jones. You punted the TE position. The QB situation is ok but not good, and the WRs – even in spite of my fondness for Nate Burleson and his kick return yards – are pretty terrible, both in terms of starters and (especially) depth. Grade: 6.0, Great RBs, but far can that take you when you’re getting slaughtered at the WR position every week and fighting for a push at QB? Very high risk for both QBs. Kitna probably isn’t throwing for 4000 yards again, and last year he only threw 18 TDs – how many will he throw when his yardage dips to 3400? This team can definitely make the playoffs, but that will require better than expected performance from **both** Kitna and Warner. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/49 "2008-09-04T13:31:16Z")
> [@](#): > > I think Julius Jones, while nothing special, is the primary ball carrier in what is usually a pretty good offense. Mo Morris was named the Week 1 starter yesterday… and Seattle’s run blocking was atrocious last year. [QUOTE=VarlosZ] You could make a case for Willie Parker instead, but I think his wheels are in the process of falling off. [/QUOTE] Eh? He nearly won the rushing title last season despite breaking his leg in Week 15! [QUOTE=VarlosZ] 16. Carnell Williams – Interesting keeper, but IMO a low-percentage one nonetheless. Prediction: RNATB cuts him to free up the roster spot after 5 or 6 weeks. 4.5 [/QUOTE] You’re absolutely right here. He was a bit of a homer pick- I’m a Bucs fan, and hoped the team would draft Cadillac starting sometime during his sophomore season. I cut him today to pick up a 2nd TE since Watson may not play in Week 1. > [@](#): > > What’s his [Kevin Smith’s] upside? 900/8? 368 carries, 1487 yards, 4.0 average, and 14 TDs, plus 261/1 receiving. Those are the exact statistics of a former 4th-round pick during his rookie season. I’ll let you guys see if you can figure out who. Hint: he’s no longer in the league. 24K was the first pick of the third round, and was a steal. He has every bit as much talent as that guy did. I’m not _expecting_ him to hit those marks- I think 1200/8 is more realistic, given Detroit’s run blocking- but I firmly believe he can. > [@](#): > > I can understand not being wild about SJ (I’m not), and I can even understand liking Barber better (I don’t), but here’s why this is a bad pick: You could have had Barber plus something else. That probably would have been a good idea, but frankly I was expecting somebody to reach for Brady so Addai would have fallen to me. Also, I’ve historically played in a league where just about _every_ trade gets voted down, so I don’t normally think about it as much as I probably ought. > [@](#): > > 1. D.J. Hackett – A much better gamble. Sure he’ll most likely miss half the season, but if he somehow stays on the field he’ll be a steal. 6 He’s probable for Week 1, so this just became a much better pick than even I thought it was. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/50 "2008-09-04T14:03:29Z")
Predicted order of standings at the end of our regular season according to points scored, not W-L. 1. Moridwon (Hamlet) – Damn keepers. 2. Varlos’ Zzzzzzz – Of course I like them. I drafted them after all, didn’t I? 3. Spiritus Mundae – Sneaky good draft, plus he’s just good at this and will probably manage free agents and his roster really well. 4. Freshman 16 (RNATB) 5. MunchsUrbanAchievers – Only has one RB (AP), but I bet at least one of Slaton, Watson, and Williams will work out. The rest of the team is really good. 6. Fightin’ Quakers (furt) 7. CedricBensonBusts (BabaBooey) 8. New York Fanboys (Ellis Dee) 9. Shut Your Mouth Abel (neuroman) 10. Baltimore Weirdos (Weirddave) 11. Omni’s Omnipotents 12. CarMenace (Nurse Carmen) 13. Crabby Hermits 14. Backup QB Guy (4th and 19) (Wilson) – Actually could have been a lot worse given what happened, but it’s still going to be a long year. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/51 "2008-09-04T14:15:39Z")
Cedric Benson Busts Quarterbacks- Jon Kitna (6), Kurt Warner (7) - Ah, that rarest of birds- the quarterback who sucks at life but rules in Fantasy. And you have _two_ of them! Can’t say I’m a fan of the Kitna pick - especially in a league where picks are penalized more heavily than usual - but the Warner pick more than makes up for it. You really screwed your WR pooch by taking Kitna too early, though. Running Backs- Stephen Jackson (1), Brandon Jacobs (2), Thomas Jones (3), Julius Jones (5), Pierre Thomas (14) - Ah, a man after my own heart. Running back, running back, running back. And then wide receiver and another running back! Forget all this nonsense about how wideouts rule the roost now- one season does not a draft philosophy make. In any case, you never know who most of the star wideouts will be; you always know who most of the star running backs will be. That said, I don’t really like any of the guys you actually drafted. Jackson has had one big year and a bunch of mediocre or shitty ones **5** , Jacobs is an injury risk **7.5** , Thomas Jones has looked older than Favre in the preseason **4** , and Julius Jones is not going to start in Seattle and cost you an elite starter at WR or TE **3**. Thomas might be this year’s Ryan Grant if Deuce and Bush get hurt- and there seems a decent chance of both. **9** Wide Receivers- Greg Jennings (4), Nate Burleson (7), David Patten (9), Kevin Walter (12) - Oh dear. Jennings was a bit of a smoke and mirrors guy last season- sure, there was much scoring, and the people rejoiced, but he was really, really dependent on the deep ball. That makes him a risky proposition with a new QB who will not throw deep as well and certainly not as often as Favre. **6** Nate Burleson has been a bust in Seattle so far, and I see no reason to believe he’ll change his stripes now. He will catch more passes this season thanks to injuries to everyone else, but I’d be shocked at anything more than 800/5, which are very low end numbers for a #2. **4** Patten is upside central. The Saints’ depth chart at the position is awfully murky, but if you’ve seen through it you may make out like a bandit on this pick. **7.5** Kevin Walter is an ideal #4. I have no idea if he can match last season’s production- a healthy Andre Johnson might help OR hurt him- but if he can get close he’s more than worth this pick. **9** Tight End- Donald Lee (13) - You did a smart thing by ignoring all the flashy names in the top 10 on the TE list. You did a less smart thing by picking this guy. You’ve already got one large egg in the potentially shaky Aaron Rodgers basket, and you’ve compounded the risk here. That said, a TE is a young quarterback’s best friend, and Lee may catch a bunch of passes for that reason alone. I still don’t like the pick, though- I would have gone Owen Daniels. **5** Kicker- Josh Scobee (15) - Odd pick, this. He was productive last year, but his grip on his job has been very tenuous at times over the last three years. There were much better options available - paging David Akers. **5** D/ST - Pittsburgh (11), Tennessee (16) - I don’t believe in drafting two defenses, but if you’re going to, draft two really good ones. Pitt certainly qualifies, despite their seemingly permanent lack of talent at corner. **9** Tennessee is a superb value pick according to the pundits. I’m not sold at all - they’ve got 2 good linemen, one good linebacker, and a whole bunch of who-dats, has-beens and never-weres. Whatever, though - it’s RD15, and they’re ranked as a top ten unit. **7** Overall, I think you really cost yourself with the Jones and Kitna picks. You could have gotten a superstar wideout with one or even both of those picks, although Jones in fairness did appear to be “the guy” in Seattle when we drafted. Your philosophy otherwise was very sound; you just happen to have gone for players who were almost universally on my “avoid” list. **6/10** ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/52 "2008-09-04T14:24:21Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Eh? [Fast Willie] nearly won the rushing title last season despite breaking his leg in Week 15! Heavy workload, steadily declining real-world (not fantasy) performance over the past couple of years, plus he’s old enough to start a typical age decline now. “Wheels falling off” is a bit of an overstatement, but between the indicators above, the bad o-line, and the TD-thief rookie, I just don’t expect him to justify his draft position. Could be wrong. > [@](#): > > 368 carries, 1487 yards, 4.0 average, and 14 TDs, plus 261/1 receiving. Those are the exact statistics of a former 4th-round pick during his rookie season. I’ll let you guys see if you can figure out who. Hint: he’s no longer in the league. 24K was the first pick of the third round, and was a steal. He has every bit as much talent as that guy did. I’m not _expecting_ him to hit those marks- I think 1200/8 is more realistic, given Detroit’s run blocking- but I firmly believe he can. Actually, Curtis Martin was a 3rd Round pick like Kevin Smith. So, yeah, his theoretical upside is a Pro-Bowl rookie, but outside of a very, very small number of later-round draftees (CuMar, Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson), the huge seasons by _rookie_ RBs have all come from 1st Rounders. That doesn’t mean that he’s not a steal or that he won’t have a great career, just that it’s very unlikely he’ll hit even 1,000 yards – let alone 1,200 or 1,400 – in 2008. > [@](#): > > Ah, that rarest of birds- the quarterback who sucks at life but rules in Fantasy. Otherwise known as an “Aaron Brooks.” ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/53 "2008-09-04T14:31:44Z")
**Backup QB Guy/4th and 19** Quarterbacks- Tom Brady (1) and some other guys (8-16) - You got the best QB available, without screwing up the rest of your backfield. **10** You also got his handcuff. And that guy’s handcuff. And everyone else’s QB handcuff. **0** Running Backs- Edgerrin James (3), Selvin Young (4), DeAngelo Williams (5) - Pretty good job here, considering that you spent your first two picks on non-RBs and didn’t get to draft any injury prospects. Edge’s wheels are coming off, but the Cardinals seem determined to get their money’s worth from him and you won’t care what his YPC is as long as the total is good. **6.5** Young might be a stud, but you absolutely need to get Andre Hall somehow; Young is one of those guys that is as likely to lose his starting job as he is to get hurt. **9** DeAngelo is still the man in Carolina and I, for one, am really looking forward to seeing what he can do with 20 carries a game. Of course, he may not get them. **7** Wide Receivers- Andre Johnson (2), Kevin Curtis (6) - So, you’ve got one healthy starting wideout. On the bright side, you got a really, really good one. Look for Johnson to finish in the top three at the position. **9** I’m not going to bother rating the other guys since presumably all but one of them will end up dropped anyway. That one guy is a doozie, though- Daniels might be a top-5 TE with a healthy Schaub and Johnson. **10** Overall - I’ll give you a final rating when I see your Week 1 roster. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/54 "2008-09-04T14:45:46Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > Heavy workload, steadily declining real-world (not fantasy) performance over the past couple of years, plus he’s old enough to start a typical age decline now. “Wheels falling off” is a bit of an overstatement, but between the indicators above, the bad o-line, and the TD-thief rookie, I just don’t expect him to justify his draft position. Could be wrong. I don’t think you can call a one-year downturn a “steady” decline. His YPC dropped from 4.4 to 4.1 last year, but that’s to be expected- he was still largely an unknown quantity in 2006, while defenses primarily schemed against him in 2007 (which is partly why Roethlisberger’s numbers improved so dramatically.) The scoring rate doesn’t signify anything as far as Parker’s ability; Bruce Arians just doesn’t run the ball in the red zone. Parker had twenty carries inside the 10 last season, and the Steelers only ran the ball 54 times inside the 10. As far as age goes, sure, he’s 28, but he’s only been in the league for 4 years, and has only carried the ball 970 times in his career. Brian Westbrook has more carries on his body, and Stephen Jackson only has a dozen fewer. If you go back to college, they are both way more battered, because Parker never even started for UNC. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/55 "2008-09-04T14:51:51Z")
Yards per carry was 4.7 in '05 (then 4.4, then 4.1), plus his DVOA dropped quite a bit last year. Fair point about the workload. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/56 "2008-09-04T15:17:15Z")
**Moridwon** Quarterbacks- Matt Hasselbeck (5), Marc Bulger (7) - Solid pick in Hasselbeck, although I think he’ll be hard-pressed to remain among the top 10 at the position without the historically good Seahawk running game and healthy wideouts. **7** Bulger is the wild card on your team; he might be no more than a bye-week fill-in, but there’s a chance that he’ll finish in the top 5. I think you could definitely have gotten him later, though. **6** Running Backs- Frank Gore (1), Maurice J-D (4), Chris Perry (6), Michael Turner (9), Jerious Norwood (11) - Arguably the best backfield in the league. Okay, not arguably, definitely. That could change if Perry gets hurt, though, which is hardly a long shot. Gore is valued just as he should be at the 8th spot. **7** Maurice Jones-Drew is a steal in the fourth round. If you can deal with a timeshare (I can’t), he’s worth as much as a 2nd-rounder. **10** Perry is another excellent pick, although a bit of a luxury pick given that you knew you had Turner coming. **8.5** Turner is… well, fuck you, man. **10** And good job on Norwood. I think he may give you startable productivity even if Turner doesn’t get hurt. **8** Wide Receivers- Marques Colston (2), Steve Smith (3), Matt Jones (13), Justin Gage (14), Ronald Curry (16) - This is just unfair. You’ve got the best starting wideout tandem too. Of course, Smith will only play 14 games this season (at most), and given the Fantasy schedule he’ll play 13 at most for you. With that in mind, I would have been sure to get a solid #3, but you didn’t. **7** Colston is a bit odd- catches lots of passes for lots of scores but not all that many yards (so far). Maybe that will change this year. **8** Your other guys are all… well, shite, but they’ve got potential. **16, combined** Tight End - Well, you’re pretty effed here, but who cares? 500/5 is good enough not to lose you any games, and I’m pretty sure Davis will give you that. **4** Kicker- Rob Bironas - One of the things you can be sure of is that the top kicker from the previous season will not repeat. It’s pretty much a Fantasy law. No matter. Bironas has lots of leg and plays with an offense just shitty enough to guarantee lots of FiGgies. **9** D/ST- Jacksonville - Another rare bird- a defense that’s great in real life but sucks for Fantasy. Trading their entire draft for two pass rushers will probably help. Eventually. Playing against a weak offensive schedule will help more. Too early, though. **7** Assuming that Hasselbeck can overcome the dearth of receiving talent, or that Bulger can overcome playing with a JV O-line, and that Steve Smith stays healthy, you could hardly fail to make the playoffs. Bastard. **9** ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/57 "2008-09-04T15:57:41Z")
**Omni’s Omnipotents** Quarterbacks- Ben Roethlisberger (4), Chad Pennington (12) - Feh. I’m not sold on Roethlisberger as a #1- I think his touchdowns were artificially inflated by Bruce Arians’ throw-at-all-costs redzone offense. Of course, this shouldn’t bother you! **8** Pennington? Really? Less talent in Miami than in New York, and he’s learning a new system on short notice. I’d be very, very worried. **4** Running Backs- Jamal Lewis (2), Matt Forte (3), Chris Johnson (7), Kevin Jones (9) - I’d be worried about this, too. Sure, Lewis was good (not great) last year, but he was absolutely hopeless for the previous two years in Baltimore. How do you know that you aren’t getting that guy? **5** Forte is a decent pick, though possibly a tad high. He’s got lots of upside, but he hasn’t looked particularly good so far and may not even start much. **6** Chris Johnson is a great pick. He’s going to get 50% of the carries in a run-heavy offense, and probably more by season’s end. I don’t see him producing all that much- yeah, he can outrun any back in the league, but he can’t run over even a corner- but he was definitely the best back available here. **8** Really, really smart move to handcuff Forte with Jones. He’s looked very good in preseason, and I strongly suspect he’ll be the Bears’ starter for the next 3 years. **8** Wide Receivers- Randy Moss (1), Jerricho Cotchery (5), Roddy White (6), Reggie Williams (8), DeSean Jackson (10), Drew Bennett (13), Sidney Rice (14), Robert Meachem (16) - Jesus. You must be expecting an awful lot of injuries. Moss gets a **9** , and the rest of them average about a **5**. White is good value in the 6th, and Meachem could wind up being very productive. I dropped your score because you took way too freakin’ many. Shoulda used some of those picks on running backs or quarterbacks. Tight End- Alge Crumpler - Vince Young can’t throw to anyone but tight ends, and Algernon Darius Crumpler is really, really good. Problem is, Young can’t throw to any tight end but Bo Scaife. **5** Kicker- ? - You forgot to draft one. **0** D/ST- Packers - They’re supposed to be good, but I think they’re highly overrated this year, especially since they traded away Corey Williams. **5** You need running back help, quarterback help, tight end help, and possibly defensive help. And a kicker. **3** ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/58 "2008-09-04T16:41:25Z")
> [@Spiritus\_Mundi](#): > > First, Thanks to all of you doing the draft reviews. I’d love to do my own, and may even find time to do so before Saturday . . . Tatum Bell might get another job in the NFL, too. Bell could carry bags for the players on some team. > [@Spiritus Mundi](#): > > TO my worst pick? This from a man who purports to follow a Best Player Available drafting strategy? There’s something rotten in the state of Denmark. And methinks it is thine philophical consistency. And also thine undershorts - dude, you’re carrying the whole middle ages schtik a bit too far. I left something unsaid, that, as you pointed out for “philosophical consistencey”. TO wasn’t the best player available. Manning, Grant, and Johnson would have all been better players AND better picks. > [@SpiritusMundi](#): > > First round is as much (more, in my case) about risk avoidance as it is about outrageous upside. That’s why is LT a lock at #1 and everyone is afraid to bet their season on AP. T.O. is risky as hell on a real life team, but in fantasy football he is rock solid and the top playmaker on one of the most explosive offense in the league. I never said TO wasn’t good. He is. He’s a very solid, hell even elite, receiver. He’s a great player. And still the wrong pick. [quote=Spiritus] Let’s look at the next 6 players taken off the board: [list][li] **Manning** Line injuries and surgery rehab - this was my toughest call, but I expected plenty of QB value to be available in rounds 5-7[/li][/quote] Manning was, to me, the obvious pick for you to make. If you want consistency and lack of risk, Manning is your guy. If you’re scared off by his surgery and loss of Saturday, I think you’re just overthinking it. Grant and Larry Johnson were certainly more of a risk than Owens. If your ONLY concern is risk, and you think Manning is somehow a “risky” pick, then you made the right call. But I see ton more WR value in the middle rounds than QB value. The dropoff from Brady/Manning/Romo/ and maybe Brees to the rest is a ton larger from Owens to Wayne, Fitzy, Colston, Housh, etc. But it’s your pick and your team. And you finished second last year, so I think you have a bit more cred than I. > [@Spiritus](#): > > Wanted was a horrible movie. I see my team more as a Juno (Yeah, I know it came out in 2007, but I don’t get to the movies much and just saw it a few months ago.) It’s quirky, with an unusual slant on things, but holds nothing back and isn’t afraid to take chances. The story is thin and contrivance sometimes overwhelms characterization but if the young and hip vibe holds true it will sweep into the awards season. Ahh, fantasy football, how I missed ye’. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/59 "2008-09-04T16:56:08Z")
[QUOTE=Spiritus] Wanted was a horrible movie. I see my team more as a Juno (Yeah, I know it came out in 2007, but I don’t get to the movies much and just saw it a few months ago.) [/QUOTE] Don’t worry. I haven’t seen a single one of the movies he used. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2008, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318/60 "2008-09-04T17:09:00Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Don’t worry. I haven’t seen a single one of the movies he used. Actually, I’ve only seen a couple of them. But don’t tell anyone. It ruins the schtick. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/he-hate-me-some-me-ff-keeper-league/447318.md?page=4)