# Health care reform: Coming vote? Will it pass? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 14, 2010, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487 "2010-03-14T23:29:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2010, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/21 "2010-03-16T20:23:43Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > What really annoys me is all the headlines today saying some variation of “House trying to pass Senate bill without vote”. Which is a blatant distortion of what they are doing. There will obviously be a vote, on a bill which will contain language that affirms assent to the Senate bill, as well as modifications to said bill. > > In the end it’s all laughable though - the public doesn’t give two shits about process. They just want to know who won and who loss. Knowing the Dems, they’ll find a way to lose, but I’m Charlie-Brown-level optimistic today. Well, I’m just going by what I’m hearing on MSNBC, but the way they explain it is that it allows any Dem who wants to claim he or she didn’t vote for the bill to do so-- even if they voted for the changes. So it’s not clear to me that there will be a vote on the bill itself. If there is, why the language about it “deeming” to pass? ---
**Author:** ![Cliffy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/59ef9b/32.png) [@Cliffy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cliffy)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2010, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/22 "2010-03-16T20:30:40Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Well, I’m just going by what I’m hearing on MSNBC, but the way they explain it is that it allows any Dem who wants to claim he or she didn’t vote for the bill to do so-- even if they voted for the changes. So it’s not clear to me that there will be a vote on the bill itself. If there is, why the language about it “deeming” to pass? Of course there’s a vote on the Senate bill itself. Otherwise how does it pass? That’s not the same as saying there’s a vote on the **text** of the bill. It’s a doofy procedural maneuver that’s designed to give Democratic members political cover, and it will entirely fail in that. But there’s no question under established law that it’s a vote on the bill. It is. –Cliffy ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2010, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/23 "2010-03-16T20:30:50Z")
The people DO care about process. And if this bill passes through the Dems’ shenanigans, they will show just how much they care come November. Either way they’re in for a beating. The only question is how bad will it be. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2010, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/24 "2010-03-16T20:33:18Z")
> [@Cliffy](#): > > Of course there’s a vote on the Senate bill itself. Otherwise how does it pass? That’s not the same as saying there’s a vote on the **text** of the bill. Got it. Now I’m off to see _Alice in Wonderland_. > [@](#): > > It’s a doofy procedural maneuver that’s designed to give Democratic members political cover, and it will entirely fail in that. But there’s no question under established law that it’s a vote on the bill. It is. > > –Cliffy Yeah, I have to wonder if any Democrat is going to get a pass on this by saying he voted against it before he voted for it. Or however you say it. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2010, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/25 "2010-03-16T20:50:08Z")
> [@](#): > > The people DO care about process. And if this bill passes through the Dems’ shenanigans, they will show just how much they care come November. Either way they’re in for a beating. The only question is how bad will it be. You call it passing through Democratic shenanigans; I call it passing despite Republican shenanigans. It’s only shenanigans if you start from the premise that bills “should” be passed by 60% supermajorities, rather than the premise that they “should” pass by simple majority. Back to the OP: 1: I think it will pass. A lot of folks who have spoken out against it did so because they wanted something a little different in some way or the other, not because they were fundamentally opposed. With the passed Senate bill (passed without any shenanigans at all, mind you) being immutable, those folks don’t have any room for negotiation any more, so when push comes to shove, I think they’ll vote yes. 2: Something will happen eventually. But then, I have a physicist’s notion of “for all time and evermore”, not a politician’s. It may be that the way we’ll get health care reform is that the revolutionaries who overthrow the current system will build it into the new Constitution, or that we’ll be conquered and incorporated into Canada, or whatever. Forever is a long time. 3: Passing a reform will certainly help the Democrats more than it hurts them, come November and 2012. Reversion to the mean alone will probably still mean lost seats, but we’ll lose more seats without a health care bill than with it. Even without, though, I don’t think we’ll lose the majority in either house outright. 4: Same as 3, really. It’ll certainly be one issue, but not the only one. Again, whichever way it goes, I’d say that Obama’s chance of holding onto the White House is better than even, but will be helped by a passed reform. 5: I have no clue. Certainly not until the next election where the Dems gain seats, whenever that is. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2010, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/26 "2010-03-16T20:55:39Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > The people DO care about process. And if this bill passes through the Dems’ shenanigans, they will show just how much they care come November. Either way they’re in for a beating. The only question is how bad will it be. If you say so. My contention is that process is almost completely meaningless (read: well fewer than 5% of possible voters will change their potential vote in November based on the _method_ in which health care reform was passed). Dems will certainly lose seats in both houses, but I strongly believe they will lose _fewer_ votes by passing this bill than by not passing it, and that the method they use is far less important than whether it passes or not. If this procedure makes it more likely to pass, that is obviously a trade-off worth making. You forget that politics is not a zero-sum game - passion and success for your side breeds excitement and brings people to the polls. Losses and failures demoralize your side and cause fewer base voters to show up on election day. > [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yeah, I have to wonder if any Democrat is going to get a pass on this by saying he voted against it before he voted for it. Or however you say it. What they are going to be able to say, and what this rule buys them, is that they only voted for the **modified** bill. That is, they can rightly say that they didn’t vote for the Cornhusker Kickback, for example. Or the Senate abortion-funding language. Instead they voted for a bill that modified the Senate version, while also passing the exact text of the Senate version as the Constitution requires. Then the Senate passes the rule (in it’s exact text as well) through reconciliation and, presto, law (well, as soon as Obama passes it). ---
**Author:** ![Cliffy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/59ef9b/32.png) [@Cliffy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cliffy)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/27 "2010-03-17T15:20:20Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > The people DO care about process. And if this bill passes through the Dems’ shenanigans, they will show just how much they care come November. If people gave a shit about process, there wouldn’t be a filibuster. Very few people care. They should but they don’t. And the idea of calling “deem and pass” Democratic shenanigans is ignorant at best, but more likely disingenuous. Over the past decade plus (note – more GOP Congresses than Dems) this method has been used for 25-30% of all bills passed in the House. Republicans love to pretend that long-standing procedural traditions used to their advantage in the past are horrifying violations of the constitutional order when they’re used by Democrats. But it’s a goddamn lie. –Cliffy ---
**Author:** ![Blalron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/35a633/32.png) [@Blalron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blalron)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2010, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/28 "2010-03-17T17:26:50Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > The people DO care about process. And if this bill passes through the Dems’ shenanigans, they will show just how much they care come November. Either way they’re in for a beating. The only question is how bad will it be. My impression is that almost 100% of the people opposed to this bill on the substance are crying about process right now, and 100% of those in favor of the substance of the bill are unconcerned about process. The net favorability (or unfavorability) of the Democrats will be exactly the same regardless of what particular method they use on the bill. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2010, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/29 "2010-03-20T03:58:41Z")
It’s virtually 50/50 now. It all comes down to roughly a dozen Congressmen. Actually while I am mostly against this I have a slight morbid desire for reform to pass since if it proves to be a failure Democrats will lose the White House and Congress for a generation. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2010, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/30 "2010-03-20T04:12:11Z")
> [@Curtis LeMay](#): > > It’s virtually 50/50 now. It all comes down to roughly a dozen Congressmen. Actually while I am mostly against this I have a slight morbid desire for reform to pass since if it proves to be a failure Democrats will lose the White House and Congress for a generation. My impression is that the republicans know that it will be a disaster for \*\*them \*\*if it passes. Hence the efforts made to not pass it at all. But I also think that not voting for it will eventually blow in their faces (If it fails it will be not just the republican’s fault, it will be thanks also to some conservative democrats), this is because the current system is not sustainable, it is another bubble that is growing in front of our eyes and the politicians that were against the vote will have a crisis in the near future that not only involves the financial health of the nation, but its health. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2010, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/31 "2010-03-20T09:22:30Z")
Wow, I have no idea if this means anything, but according to Intrade, the projected chances of the bill passing (based on share price) went up [fifty points in the past three days.](http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=709242) Even if it’s all just perception (and really, with Intrade, it sort of is), that’s a remarkable turnaround IN perception, and people are putting actual money on it. WTF happened there? ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Mouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mighty_mouse/32/7776_2.png) [@Mighty\_Mouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Mouse)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2010, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/32 "2010-03-20T11:24:22Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Wow, I have no idea if this means anything, but according to Intrade, the projected chances of the bill passing (based on share price) went up [fifty points in the past three days.](http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=709242) Even if it’s all just perception (and really, with Intrade, it sort of is), that’s a remarkable turnaround IN perception, and people are putting actual money on it. WTF happened there? The democractic “leadership”\* has put themselves in the position of this being seen as a make or break vote not just for HCR, but for their entire near-to-medium term political future. So now the smart money is on them getting it done, not matter what they have to do to get it done. A kind of “burning your ships” strategy, because the problem has so far not been their ability to win, but their willingness to fight. Or they have just been outmanoeuvred by the pubs into this positions. - leadership or cat herders? ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Mouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mighty_mouse/32/7776_2.png) [@Mighty\_Mouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Mouse)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2010, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/33 "2010-03-20T11:28:22Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Wow, I have no idea if this means anything, but according to Intrade, the projected chances of the bill passing (based on share price) went up [fifty points in the past three days.](http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=709242) Even if it’s all just perception (and really, with Intrade, it sort of is), that’s a remarkable turnaround IN perception, and people are putting actual money on it. WTF happened there? It’s really just up about 20 points. A bigger question might be what happened on Wednesday when the price dropped by 30 points at the open. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2010, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/34 "2010-03-20T12:15:24Z")
With AARP coming out in favor of it and advocating their membership to encourage their congressman to vote for it there’s now a much stronger chance. > [@](#): > > March 19, 2010 > > Dear Representative: > > We, like you, hear countless stories every day from our members who have been denied health insurance coverage or can’t afford their prescription drugs or health insurance premiums. Health care remains among the most important and personal economic issues for the vast majority of Americans. We have come too far in this debate to turn away from this historic opportunity to address a health care system badly in need of reform. AARP therefore urges you to vote in favor of the health insurance reform package. Older Americans and our families urgently need the improvements the legislation will provide. > > The legislation includes many vital provisions for which there has been a long history of bipartisan support, including expanded access to affordable quality coverage, barring insurers from discriminating against people with pre-existing conditions, lowering prescription drug costs, promoting prevention and wellness, advancing delivery and payment system reforms to reward quality rather than quantity of care, and strengthening efforts to fight fraud, waste and abuse. > > The legislation also achieves key priorities for older Americans, including: > > ``` > * Protecting and strengthening Medicare's guaranteed benefits, lowering seniors' prescription drug costs by closing the Medicare Part D coverage gap, eliminating barriers to prevention, cutting waste, fraud and abuse, and improving the long-term financing of the program; > * Cracking down on insurance company abuses, such as denying affordable coverage because of age or health status and setting arbitrary caps on how much care they will cover; > * Providing affordable coverage options to millions of Americans and small businesses through newly created "exchanges," as well as added help for businesses and individuals who cannot afford coverage; and > * Helping Americans to better plan for their future long-term care needs and receive services to help them live in their own homes and stay out of costly nursing homes. > > ``` > > Health expenditures consume roughly one sixth of our nation’s economy today, and will reach 20 percent within seven years if current trends continue. These skyrocketing costs have been straining the budgets of families and businesses as well as the government - crowding out other priorities - as health care costs continue to grow 2-3 times faster than general inflation. That is why all the major health care stakeholders have come to the table to solve this problem - it is simply unsustainable. We cannot afford to wait another year to enact health care reform. > > Delay will only mean more Medicare beneficiaries will not be able to afford the drugs they need; millions more of our family members and neighbors will become uninsured; billions of additional dollars in uncompensated care costs will unfairly shift to those who do have coverage; more individuals will too often be forced to impoverish themselves to get the health and long-term care services they need; and skyrocketing costs will continue to strain even more family, business, and government budgets. > > We cannot afford to continue with the status quo and have come too far to fail now. The legislation establishes a solid foundation from which to make further improvements to our health care system in the future. Both the economic and physical health of our members, their families, and our nation are at stake. > > Thus AARP urges Members of Congress to vote in favor of the Health Care & Education Affordability Reconciliation Act of 2010. Because AARP members have a strong interest in how their elected officials vote on key issues, we will be informing them about how their Representatives vote on this important issue. > > Sincerely, > > Addison Barry Rand > > Attachment > > Improve Health Care for Americans 50+: Pass Reform Now > > AARP strongly urges you to support the Health Care and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act of 2010 (H.R. 4872) because it will help older Americans by: > > ``` > * Strengthening Medicare by closing the "doughnut hole" to lower seniors' drug costs, eliminating barriers to prevention and extending the life of the Trust Fund while protecting guaranteed benefits and cutting waste, fraud and abuse that we simply cannot afford. > * Cracking down on insurance company abuses like denying affordable coverage because of age or health status, cutting off coverage when someone gets sick, and setting arbitrary caps on how much care they will cover. > * Providing affordable coverage options to millions of uninsured Americans. > * Helping Americans to better plan for their future long-term care needs and get services in their own homes to help them stay out of nursing homes. > > ``` > > If you vote against the Health Care and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act of 2010: > > ``` > * More Medicare beneficiaries will not be able to afford the drugs they need or the preventive services that can keep them healthy. > * Millions more of our family members and neighbors will become uninsured. > * Millions of additional dollars in uncompensated care costs will unfairly shift to those who do have coverage. > * People will have to impoverish themselves and go into nursing homes to get the long-term care services they could get more efficiently at home. > * Skyrocketing costs will strain even more family, business and government budgets and crowd out other essential priorities. > * More businesses will struggle to compete in a global marketplace where they shoulder health care costs that far exceed those anywhere else in the world. > > ``` > > The power to improve health care for older Americans is in your hands - vote “yes” on the Health Care and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act of 2010. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2010, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/35 "2010-03-20T21:32:39Z")
> [@Mighty\_Mouse](#): > > It’s really just up about 20 points. A bigger question might be what happened on Wednesday when the price dropped by 30 points at the open. Ah, yes, very true; I failed to notice that. But it still made up the drop and then some. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2010, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/36 "2010-03-21T17:36:27Z")
[Stupak](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/21/health-care-debate-live-u_n_507426.html)has just come out in favor of the bill. That will bring in eight more votes. This thing might actually pass. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2010, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/37 "2010-03-21T18:49:13Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > [Stupak](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/21/health-care-debate-live-u_n_507426.html)has just come out in favor of the bill. That will bring in eight more votes. This thing might actually pass. Not quite yet. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2010, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487/38 "2010-03-21T20:17:46Z")
Now yes. He just announced it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/health-care-reform-coming-vote-will-it-pass/532487.md?page=1)