# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 103
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2041 "2019-07-27T00:34:40Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > I don’t know how Biden who has spent pretty much his entire adult life in DC is authentic. He’s a career politician. But I guess I’m weird . It is uncommon but a career politician can still be someone who says what they think without over analyzing how it did with focus groups and checking current polling data first. And “outsiders” can be complete image creations. He believes what he says and is not the product of focus group testing. For better and worse. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2042 "2019-07-27T02:10:04Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Meanwhile looking at individual polls and the RCP average Biden is set to haver a few states possibly go as his being winner take all. Both SC and Ohio today for example have no one else over that 15% threshold. It’s nice to know that I’m not the only one looking at thresholds when I see polls. There’s an important caveat though. The DNC rules award delegates both statewide and at the congressional district level with the same threshold applied. Those congressional district delegates are actually 75% of the base delegate total. ([Cite](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Alloc.phtml) with more detail than you probably want.) It’s entirely possible for candidates to cherry pick delegates by focusing on the districts that are most friendly to them. To win district delegates only takes meeting the district threshold. That could hew up a lot of delegates in states where only one candidate breaks the statewide threshold. Not that we’ll be able to get that level of granularity in typical published polls. That’s the type of polling that gets paid for and staffers dig through in detail. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2043 "2019-07-27T02:50:03Z")
I think the only two who can beat Trump are Biden or Harris. Possibly, possibly Warren, but she’s a long shot. Bernie? Abso-fucking-lutely no way. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2044 "2019-07-27T09:32:44Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Yes, a lot of Biden’s poll numbers is name recognition. But I think he can hold the left and the center simultaneously, something others cannot do. > > Of the top tier, the only one I see having a chance in the general election is Harris. I can’t see Joe Sixpack getting home from the factory and saying “Yep, I’m going to vote for that screechy liberal woman from Massachusetts”, or “I’m going to vote for that old man from The Muppet Show balcony who openly calls himself a socialist”, or “I’ll vote for a mayor of a modestly sized city.” Why run so far left of the Republicans and cede the center lane? I am 100% in agreement with this except that I don’t see Biden as being the candidate you see him as. I have no patience for arguments against Biden that he is not progressive enough or whatever. I just think he is old and feeble and was never a great politician to begin with. There are candidates at 1% like Bullock who would be ideal if primary voters would give them a chance. But since they won’t, your other objections to the top tier candidates are valid—and that leaves Harris as our only hope. > [@Chronos](#): > > The biggest difference between 2016 on the one hand, and 2008 and 2012 on the other, was in working-class households. Historically, those have been mostly Democratic, because of unions, but in 2016, they felt that Clinton was taking them for granted and ignoring them, and went for Trump. But nobody would think that Sanders or Warren is ignoring working-class folks. So, yes, those two really could beat Trump in key states like Ohio. Will they? I don’t know. They could fail in completely different ways than Clinton did. But they certainly can. Do you have evidence that those two appeal to Rust Belt working class white swing voters? Because I see a lot of people making this claim based on the idea that they are good on labor issues and so on, but I think that those kinds of voters are more interested in being able to culturally connect—and I don’t think a Massachusetts senator and former Harvard professor, or a Vermont socialist who is ethnically Jewish but not religious and speaks with a thick Brooklyn accent, are the ticket. It would be interesting to know more about that large contingent of Massachusetts voters who pulled the lever for other Democrats while voting for Warren’s Republican opponent. I have a hard time imagining that they are anything other than the same type of voters we need. And they don’t like her. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2045 "2019-07-27T09:58:33Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > [Historian Allan Lichtman: Democrats Might Do Better With An “Off-The-Wall” 2020 Candidate Rather Than Safe Establishment Pick](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/06/07/historian_allan_lichtman_democrats_might_do_better_with_an_off_the_wall_2020_candidate_rather_than_safe_pick.html) Can’t say I’m a big fan of Lichtman. I first read about his “Keys to the Presidency” prediction system back in the 1980s, so I got to follow it through multiple cycles. Let’s just say that some of his keys are subject to interpretation as to whether they’re turned or not, to use his nomenclature. And he fudged the hell out of his 2016 prediction; if he’s taking credit for having gotten that one right, then gimme a break. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2046 "2019-07-27T10:06:42Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > I don’t think Bill Clinton or Carter were off the wall candidates. They were moderate southern governors rather than a northern liberal like Dukakis and Kerry. Obama was different of course since he’s black. Clinton wasn’t so much off the wall, as the guy who got the nomination only because all the big shots were scared off by the way GHW Bush was riding high in the polls after Desert Storm. And Carter - much as I love him for his post-Presidential life, he was, in 1975-76, the closest thing the Dems have had to a Trump: a guy whose candidacy came out of nowhere, was way underprepared for being President, but had a good enough line of patter to win the nomination against a field of established but not particularly strong competitors. By the standards of the day, yes, Carter’s candidacy was off the wall. ETA: But if Lichtman is saying that Dukakis was a mainstream candidate but Clinton and Carter were off the wall…nah, does not compute. Sorry. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2047 "2019-07-27T12:53:07Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Can’t say I’m a big fan of Lichtman. I first read about his “Keys to the Presidency” prediction system back in the 1980s, so I got to follow it through multiple cycles. > > Let’s just say that some of his keys are subject to interpretation as to whether they’re turned or not, to use his nomenclature. And he fudged the hell out of his 2016 prediction; if he’s taking credit for having gotten that one right, then gimme a break. I tend to agree, I think Lichtman has promoted himself rather well using the tricks of your typical tarot card reader. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2048 "2019-07-27T14:19:16Z")
Carter won in 76 not long after Watergate so the Dems had a big advantage that year. Almost any reasonable Dem would have won in 76. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2049 "2019-07-27T14:46:00Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Carter won in 76 not long after Watergate so the Dems had a big advantage that year. Almost any reasonable Dem would have won in 76. One would think that history should repeat itself this time. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2050 "2019-07-27T14:49:27Z")
the difference is nobody elected Ford in 74 so there was not a big cult of fans of his like we have now with Trump. And Carter did not win by much in 76. Maybe a better Dem would have won more easily. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2051 "2019-07-27T15:36:04Z")
The real difference is that this country is beginning to fracture socially and politically. We live in a society that is increasingly without a shared reality or shared understanding of what truth and reality mean. I think there have always been differences of opinion about how to define America. We’ve always had an ethnic white (and largely Christian) majority that has believed that its values shall be imposed upon others, and we’ve simultaneously had a competing view of America in which we live in a society of shared prosperity and power. But we’re now at a moment in history in which the ethnic majority feels threatened and anxious at the prospect of losing the power to define what the terms “America” and “American” mean. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2052 "2019-07-27T16:16:15Z")
Former SF Mayor Willie Brown, who’s been mentioned in this thread before, made some interesting points in this week’s column, which I’ll paraphrase here: Regarding the prospects of a debate between Trump and the Democratic nominee, he said: it’s not going to happen. The point of a debate is to sway undecided voters, and there aren’t any of those. Trump has shown he’s only interested in rallying his base, as demonstrated by his attacks on The Squad. His strategy is all about voter turnout: if he gets more of his 42% to vote than the Democratic candidate gets of his/her 50%…he wins. IMHO: this is good. I don’t think there will be _any_ problem generating Democratic enthusiasm. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2053 "2019-07-27T20:39:57Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > the difference is nobody elected Ford in 74 so there was not a big cult of fans of his like we have now with Trump. And Carter did not win by much in 76. Maybe a better Dem would have won more easily. Cosigned. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2019, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2054 "2019-07-27T23:29:15Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > the difference is nobody elected Ford in 74 so there was not a big cult of fans of his like we have now with Trump. And Carter did not win by much in 76. Maybe a better Dem would have won more easily. I’m not sure there was one on tap that year. Like I said earlier, I really think Carter won the nomination partially due to the weakness of the field. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2019, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2055 "2019-07-28T01:33:09Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Can’t say I’m a big fan of Lichtman. I first read about his “Keys to the Presidency” prediction system back in the 1980s, so I got to follow it through multiple cycles. > > Let’s just say that some of his keys are subject to interpretation as to whether they’re turned or not, to use his nomenclature. And he fudged the hell out of his 2016 prediction; if he’s taking credit for having gotten that one right, then gimme a break. I don’t know anything about Lichtman’s system. And I’m sure, as with any type of prediction, there are subjective factors. But he did predict it before it happened, unlike most others. > [@](#): > > We’re a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November? > > Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys. > > Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed. > > Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running. > > Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act. > > Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success. > > And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt. > > One more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key. One of my keys would be that the party in power gets a “false” if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more. In his highest polling, Gary Johnson is at about 12 to 14 percent. My rule is that you cut it in half. That would mean that he gets six to seven, and that would be the sixth and final key against the Democrats. > > So very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory. [Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?noredirect=on) ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2019, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2056 "2019-07-28T03:16:39Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > Former SF Mayor Willie Brown… Regarding the prospects of a debate between Trump and the Democratic nominee, he said: it’s not going to happen… Interesting. Fall debates between the two major-party candidates have been commonplace since 1976; it’s be remarkable if they weren’t any in 2020. But then, so many other political verities have fallen by the wayside in the past few years… ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2019, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2057 "2019-07-28T04:21:09Z")
CNN did a [focus group](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzIFqy3pxew&feature=youtu.be) published 7/26/19 with 10 undecided voters in Michigan - 5 Independents, 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans. None were interested in Joe Biden. One woman said she would vote for Biden if he was on the ballot in March. 4 people said they may NOT vote for Biden if he was on the ballot as the nominee. One Republican said he might vote for Joe Biden if he was the nominee. One African-American guy said that Biden’s policies had caused many of the people in his neighborhood that he grew up with to be in jail or dead. Another guy said that Biden was Hillary Clinton 2.0, the worst thing that the Democrats could do One guy said he was interested in Julian Castro, and several of them nodded while he was speaking. Other than that, there was not much cohesion about their decisions. One woman mentioned Bernie. Another mentioned Warren but then turned to Harris. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2019, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2058 "2019-07-28T05:51:16Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > CNN did a [focus group](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzIFqy3pxew&feature=youtu.be) published 7/26/19 with 10 undecided voters in Michigan - 5 Independents, 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans. > > … Wow, \*\*TEN \*\*whole voters! :eek:You understand that numbers that small are totally meaningless, right? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2019, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2059 "2019-07-28T07:36:05Z")
It’s a focus group, not a poll. > [@](#): > > A focus group is a small, but demographically diverse group of people and whose reactions are studied especially in market research or political analysis in guided or open discussions about a new product or something else to determine the reactions that can be expected from a larger population.[1][2][3] It is a form of qualitative research consisting of interviews in which a group of people are asked about their perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and attitudes towards a product, service, concept, advertisement, idea, or packaging [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focus_group) > [@](#): > > Following widespread use in political marketing and polling, focus groups are slowly gaining recognition as a useful and legitimate method in political science. Focus groups can, however, be far more than just a secondary qualitative method to primary quantitative public opinion research: they can be used to study the micro-level process of social construction. The process in which key sub-groups collectively contest and justify the actions of elite political actors via shared values is one way to study how legitimacy is conferred. This article therefore argues that focus groups can be particularly useful for research that examines everyday narratives in world politics. [Using focus groups in political science and international relations](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0263395715624120) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2019, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2060 "2019-07-28T14:02:13Z")
I’d agree that focus groups are not completely worthless. But the keyword from above is “qualitative”. They can be useful for understanding the underlying “why” of the numbers that quantitative tools give you. Or at least for generating some hypotheses about the whys. The value is in the open ended conversations that show the deeper thought processes and emotional responses that lead to the polling numbers and the other good quantitative information or that can suggest what messages might sell better with specific subgroups. Information that yes/no polling questions might not pick up on. One valid use of a focus group would be by Team Sanders interviewing a demographically diverse group of voters who are currently moving from him to Warren to get a better sense of why and to possibly adjust the messaging to alter that trajectory. A one guy said A or B as the takeaway from focus groups is however worth less than a someone said on a message board. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=102) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=104)