# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 118
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2341 "2019-08-12T13:45:49Z")
Biden is Hillary 2.0 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2342 "2019-08-12T13:51:11Z")
Except that the data didn’t say that Clinton was the most electable. A lot of people thought she was, based on their gut instincts. But gut instincts aren’t reliable. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2343 "2019-08-12T13:52:30Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Except that the data didn’t say that Clinton was the most electable. A lot of people thought she was, based on their gut instincts. But gut instincts aren’t reliable. Who was most electable, according to the data, in August 2015? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2344 "2019-08-12T14:47:40Z")
In a world where Donald Trump is electable, I don’t think I know what the word means anymore. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2345 "2019-08-12T15:04:11Z")
We have data that can fuel our individual speculations but we really don’t have on who is most electable. The majority think it is Biden … but majority could be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2346 "2019-08-12T15:35:18Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Biden is Hillary 2.0 If Hillary ran again, she’d be elected. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2347 "2019-08-12T15:38:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Except that the data didn’t say that Clinton was the most electable. A lot of people thought she was, based on their gut instincts. But gut instincts aren’t reliable. Seriously? > **[Poll: Hillary Clinton still leads Democratic race](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-still-leads-democratic-race/)** > > CBS News surveyed voters on the state of the Democratic race Really? > **[Why Hillary Clinton Is Probably Going to Win the 2016 Election](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/04/why-hillary-clinton-is-probably-going-to-win.html)** > > This is not a toss-up. If I were better at searching google by date on my phone, I’d have about 540852! more articles from 2015 alone about Hillary’s strong chances, her appeal to strong democratic constituencies, her experience vs the field, and, yes, her electibility. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2348 "2019-08-12T15:50:34Z")
Those 2015 articles make me a bit wistful. If only we’d known then what we know now… ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2349 "2019-08-12T16:16:19Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > If Hillary ran again, she’d be elected. You know the definition of insanity? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2350 "2019-08-12T16:20:12Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > You know the definition of insanity? Well, we’d fix things, and I seriously doubt there’d be another Comey letter, which according the 538 was the biggest factor. Yes, indeed, insanity is thinking that four years later, after all the revelations, everything would be identical.😛 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2351 "2019-08-12T17:47:55Z")
Yes, we know that Clinton was preferred over Sanders among Democrats. Obviously whomever wins the primary will be the candidate preferred among Democrats: That’s not something that can be avoided. But in head-to-head polls vs. Trump, Sanders did better than Clinton. People have come up with all sorts of arguments for why those polls were irrelevant, and that Clinton was more electable anyway, but the polls are the only relevant data we have, and those arguments the polls are called into doubt by the fact that Clinton was not in fact electable enough. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2352 "2019-08-12T18:50:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But in head-to-head polls vs. Trump, Sanders did better than Clinton. People have come up with all sorts of arguments for why those polls were irrelevant, and that Clinton was more electable anyway,\*\* but the polls are the only relevant data we have\*\*, and those arguments the polls are called into doubt by the fact that Clinton was not in fact electable enough. The reason 2016 Sanders-Trump polls don’t mean much is the same reason the head-to-head polls now don’t mean much: head-to-head polls conducted before a head-to-head campaign aren’t especially predictive. If you’re looking for a rough data model for electability, I think you’d do marginally better than the head-to-head polling with just two pieces of data: (1) public perception of candidate ideology (since, all else being equal, people perceived as moderates do better); and (2) small-dollar fundraising adjusted for name recognition (since this tends to measure both how much they will successfully raise in the general and is a name-adjusted measure of popularity). Also, those two factors tend to be inverse–the more moderate you are, the less you are able to rely on small-dollar donors. It’s not perfect. By that measure, Buttigieg is probably the strongest candidate since he has raised an insane amount of money from small-dollar starting from no name recongition while maintaining a fairly moderate public image. And he’s probably not, in fact, the most electable. Harris would also fair pretty well in this model I think, which is contrary to my own intuition.But I’ll bet if you built the model it would get you closer than head-to-head polling 16 months out. The model would say Biden is fine. He’s raised what you would expect from small donors as the most well-known candidate, and he is positioned as fairly moderate. It would say Sanders is weaker, since he is regarded as the least moderate in the race and hasn’t raised as much from small donors as you’d expect given his name recognition (less than Warren, Buttigieg, and Biden). ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2353 "2019-08-12T18:57:14Z")
Oops. The small donor numbers I was looking at are off somehow, so disregard that commentary. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2019, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2354 "2019-08-12T20:53:53Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Oops. The small donor numbers I was looking at are off somehow, so disregard that commentary. I was just about to ask for the source of your numbers. Your analysis doesn’t match the numbers I’ve seen, just from recollection. I’d be interested to see some updated ones. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2019, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2355 "2019-08-13T02:52:06Z")
If moderates did better, then Trump would never have been elected. EDIT: And any measure you care to make of candidate strength will always have the same failing: It’s always going to be based on the situation before the general election campaign. That’s not unique to the head-to-head polls. And given that everything else has the same problem as the head-to-head polls, you might as well just cut directly to asking the question to which you want the answer, rather than introducing confounding factors. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2019, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2356 "2019-08-13T14:23:43Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > If moderates did better, then Trump would never have been elected. This is a silly thing to say for two reasons. First, obviously, saying “all else being equal” doesn’t mean all else is always equal. Second, and more importantly, Trump was perceived as a moderate! This is one of the central findings of the study of US elections. You cannot just handwave it away. > [@Chronos](#): > > EDIT: And any measure you care to make of candidate strength will always have the same failing: It’s always going to be based on the situation before the general election campaign. That’s not unique to the head-to-head polls. And given that everything else has the same problem as the head-to-head polls, you might as well just cut directly to asking the question to which you want the answer, rather than introducing confounding factors. That doesn’t make any sense either. We know that head-to-head polls aren’t predictive. It doesn’t follow that nothing is predictive. Nor does it follow that you cannot increase predictive power by adding more data. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2019, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2357 "2019-08-13T15:19:47Z")
Encouraging news for Democrats in Texas, IF Latino voters finally begin turning out in force - only a third of those eligible voted in 2016, despite Trump’s hostility to them being glaringly obvious even then: [Texas' big cities may tip America's balance of power in years ahead | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/13/politics/texas-democrats-districts-gains/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2019, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2358 "2019-08-13T15:21:53Z")
“I talk about that all of the time and then I wonder why the Washington Post, which is owned by Jeff Bezos, who owns Amazon, doesn’t write particularly good articles about me I don’t know why.” Damn, I’m sorry. That sounds like a Trump quote. Let me check… did I put this in the right place? Oh, yeah. OK. Right thread. That’s Bernie Sanders, this morning, stoking the “I’m entitled to the nomination because I came in 2nd last time around” arguments. > ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2019, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2359 "2019-08-13T18:07:00Z")
I don’t think Bernie has a shot, but why is it wrong to question the objectivity of a newspaper owned by someone who presides over such a major corporation? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2019, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2360 "2019-08-13T18:27:09Z")
Because it sounds like whining, rather than promoting a message. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=117) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=119)