# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 121
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2401 "2019-08-20T17:40:33Z")
Harris and Sanders staff are arguing with each other on twitter. Jesus wept. I honestly think one of Biden’s strengths is he’s not playing up to a social media gallery. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2019, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2402 "2019-08-20T19:10:08Z")
[Interesting recent polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/): Bernie leads in Colorado \o/ HarrisX did an interesting thing where they broke the Democratic field into a series of one-on-one matchups: Biden beats Sanders Sanders beats Harris Harris beats Warren Warren beats Biden I guess we could say that the situation is unsettled. It’s reassuring for us Biden-skeptical voters that his margins in all these individual races are much smaller than his double-digit lead over the field as a whole. Scrolling down a bit, Warren leads new polls of Iowa and Wisconsin, with Sanders in second in both States (tied with Biden in Iowa). ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2019, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2403 "2019-08-22T02:39:05Z")
Inslee is out. > **[Washington Gov. Jay Inslee drops out of presidential race | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/21/politics/jay-inslee-drops-out-of-race/index.html)** > > Democratic Washington Gov. Jay Inslee on Wednesday announced he is suspending his presidential campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Hermione](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/cdc98d/32.png) [@Hermione](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermione)\ **Post date:** [August 22, 2019, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2404 "2019-08-22T12:49:46Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Inslee is out. > > [https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/21/politics/jay-inslee-drops-out-of-race/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/21/politics/jay-inslee-drops-out-of-race/index.html) I’d rather see him as part of the cabinet anyway–maybe as head of the EPA. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2019, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2405 "2019-08-23T10:21:06Z")
It’s a travesty that a qualified and charismatic guy like Inslee couldn’t get traction. Meanwhile, Harris had been the only one in the top tier that I thought was pretty electable. But then I heard about this, a few days after it happened. I guess it didn’t make a huge amount of news (I don’t see it discussed here anywhere) but it could come back to haunt her, and perhaps more importantly, tells me that her political instincts and judgments are not as good as I thought: ‪[Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris’s controversial Michael Brown tweets, explained - Vox](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/8/12/20801975/elizabeth-warren-kamala-harris-michael-brown-ferguson-tweets%E2%80%AC) ‪This is such an unforced error by Harris (and of course by Warren, but no surprise from her). When you are getting corrected from the center by Vox and Ta Nehisi Coates, you know you are way out on a limb.‬ ‪They also got four Pinocchios from the Washington Post for this:‬ > **[Analysis | Harris, Warren ignore DOJ report to claim Michael Brown was...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/13/harris-warren-ignore-doj-report-claim-that-michael-brown-was-murdered/#)** > > The Obama Justice Department found “no credible evidence" that the police officer willfully shot Brown "as he was attempting to surrender or was otherwise not posing a threat." > [@](#): > > Harris and Warren have ignored the findings of the Justice Department to accuse Wilson of murder, even though the Justice Department found no credible evidence to support that claim. > Instead, the Justice Department found that the popular narrative was wrong, according to witnesses deemed to be credible, some of whom testified reluctantly because of fear of reprisal. The department produced a comprehensive report to determine what happened, making the senators’ dismissal of it even more galling. Harris and Warren both earn Four Pinocchios. ‪And although apparently this didn’t get a huge amount of coverage if I didn’t hear about it until a week later, it’s the kind of thing that could really be grist for a general election campaign attack ad, _a la_ Willie Horton.‬ ‪If you want to be provocative and say a black kid was “murdered” by white cops, pick Tamir Rice! Not Mike Brown, FFS. :smack:‬ ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2019, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2406 "2019-08-23T11:25:51Z")
I’m definitely a supporter of BLM’s larger goals and most of the time they’re in the right. And I realize that what happened in Ferguson was in the context of a greater pattern of tension and mistreatment with the local law enforcement. But I do think they picked a bad poster child when it came to Michael Brown. Brown did not come off looking very sympathetic in the final analysis. Everyone who’s ever worked a shitty job behind a counter in a sketchy area late at night - which is a hell of a lot of people in this country - has dreaded a visit from guys like Brown. Tangentially, but still related, it’s my impression that Trump has a substantial following with Indian-Americans and Sikhs, and there’s significant overlap between that demographic and the aforementioned late-night sketchy-place business-employees. (And surgeons and engineers, but still.) Do we want that voting bloc in our corner or not? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2019, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2407 "2019-08-23T11:40:58Z")
It’s pure stubbornness. The movement ignited there, so instead of being politically deft and pivoting to all the other better poster children like Rice, they just ignore the facts and double down on Mike Brown — much to the horror of anyone not already in the “choir”. To signal to swing voters that voting Democratic will mean that menacing guys like him are given free rein is a terrible mistake. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2408 "2019-08-27T03:24:06Z")
3 way tie! > **[Poll: Sanders, Warren, Biden in virtual tie for top spot among 2020...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-sanders-warren-biden-virtual-183106215.html)** > > Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have jumped to a virtual tie with front-runner Joe Biden in a new poll on the Democratic presidential candidates. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2409 "2019-08-27T09:26:22Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > 3 way tie! > > [Poll: Sanders, Warren, Biden in virtual tie for top spot among 2020 Democratic candidates](https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-sanders-warren-biden-virtual-183106215.html) I saw that! Just a single poll, but I’m glad to see this. For those who don’t want to click, it has Sanders and Warren at 20, and Biden at 19. It’s Monmouth, so it’s a good polling outfit. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2410 "2019-08-27T12:54:12Z")
But it’s not an especially accurate poll, regardless it being from Monmouth. It has a margin of error of almost +/-6%. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2411 "2019-08-27T12:55:22Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > But it’s not an especially accurate poll, regardless it being from Monmouth. It has a margin of error of almost +/-6%. A single poll this early means almost nothing. Still nice to see for those of us who don’t want Biden to win the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2412 "2019-08-27T13:22:19Z")
It was a sample size of under 300, which lead to the big margin of error. It’s big enough that it could encompass Biden sitting at 25% and Sanders/Warren still at around 15%. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2413 "2019-08-27T13:24:56Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > It was a sample size of under 300, which lead to the big margin of error. It’s big enough that it could encompass Biden sitting at 25% and Sanders/Warren still at around 15%. And vice versa. And it’s just a single poll, which means that we shouldn’t pay it much attention. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2414 "2019-08-27T13:30:58Z")
Sigh. You probably will think I’m being pedantic or something but what you’re saying could be said about any of the polls coming out. This particular poll is less accurate than the other polls you are comparing it too. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2415 "2019-08-27T13:41:04Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Sigh. You probably will think I’m being pedantic or something but what you’re saying could be said about any of the polls coming out. This particular poll is less accurate than the other polls you are comparing it too. We don’t know if it’s more or less accurate – that it’s Monmouth makes me think “more”, that it has a small sample size makes me think “less”. But this is a silly disagreement. This poll barely merits discussion – it’s a single poll, very early. But there’s not much else to talk about WRT the primary season aside from the latest polls right now. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2416 "2019-08-27T14:21:47Z")
Ok, so you don’t get it. Most of the polls listed on realclear and 538 have a margin of error of about +/- 1-3%. This one is +/- 5.7%. That makes it less accurate, not the trustworthiness of the pollsters. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2417 "2019-08-27T14:24:56Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Ok, so you don’t get it. Most of the polls listed on realclear and 538 have an accuracy of about +/- 1-3%. This one is +/- 5.7%. That makes it less accurate, not the trustworthiness of the pollsters. “Margin of error” is a different concept than “accuracy”, especially in polling. Garbage polls sometimes have small margins of error, and good polls sometimes have large margins of error. If the sampling was bad, then a small margin of error doesn’t mean it’s an “accurate” poll. If the sampling is good, then a poll can still be relatively accurate, even with a large margin of error. Sampling, here, refers to the quality of the method used to select respondents, not necessarily just the sample size. That’s why I go by 538’s ratings, which take all these sorts of things into account (yes, I’m relying on Nate Silver’s judgment). Monmouth has a good track record of solid sampling (as well as other factors), and thus they are rated highly. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2418 "2019-08-27T14:27:45Z")
Read more here: [Opinion poll - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll#Potential_for_inaccuracy) There are many, many factors that can affect accuracy/inaccuracy aside from margin of error based on sample size. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2419 "2019-08-27T14:38:47Z")
Whatever you want to call it, the numbers are less trustworthy with a larger margin of error. That’s what it means. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2019, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2420 "2019-08-27T14:50:09Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Whatever you want to call it, the numbers are less trustworthy with a larger margin of error. That’s what it means. Agreed! Smaller MoE is better than larger, all else being equal, and nothing I’ve said disputes this. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=120) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=122)