# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 139
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2761 "2019-11-15T20:03:13Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The thing is, your filibuster fixation is a magic wand. It’s removal will only make things better during the brief periods you hold the Senate. It may solve some gridlock but I’m not seeing how even medium term it’s a net positive for the Dems. Oh, so you’ve told me a billion times you agree with me that the filibuster needs to go, only you don’t agree. Anyway, I’ll answer this one, before I disappear you from my sight: Short version: with the filibuster, we’ve got **no** chance to make any of the positive changes this country needs. If we get rid of it, we’ve got **a** chance. I’d rather have **a** chance than **no** chance. Long version: Assuming the Dems win the White House and the Senate, what happens if the Dems keep the filibuster? They accomplish nothing in 2021-22, then get demolished at the polls in November 2022 because things still suck and they haven’t done anything to change that. They also haven’t done anything about climate change, so we’re screwed in the long run too. Eventually the GOP wins back the White House, either in 2024 or 2028. They have been willing to demolish any norm that’s in their way, so if they need to kill the filibuster, they will. More likely, they’ll just use reconciliation to pass more tax cuts, continue confirming GOP judges, etc., and keep the filibuster in place in order to keep the Dems from being able to pass stuff with a simple majority when they’re next in supposed control. And if they get rid of it? Then at least they’ve got a **chance** to accomplish good stuff: to pass laws ensuring that everyone can vote in Congressional elections, and that House districts aren’t gerrymandered. To address climate change. To increase the minimum wage and empower unions. To make college affordable, and make getting health care more affordable and less complicated. Sure, the GOP might repeal that stuff someday, if and when they get control of both houses of Congress and the White House. But the Dems’ best bet is to pass laws that really help people in their daily lives - both to minimize the inevitable midterm losses, and to give people a reason to lean on their Congresspersons and Senators when the GOP has full control and tries to repeal all the good things the Dems passed, just the way it happened with the ACA in 2017. If the Dems continue to play defense even when they have the ball - which is the only play they leave themselves if the filibuster is in place - then they never get anywhere, never accomplish anything for anybody, and never constitute more than a brake on the organized evil that is the GOP. At some point, they’ve got to go on offense - kill the filibuster and try to actually accomplish something positive - or they, and the country, are screwed. Yeah, there are risks. But that beats hell out of the certain slow self-defeat of the other approach. **A** chance, versus **no** chance. Seems like a no-brainer to me. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2019, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2762 "2019-11-15T20:14:21Z")
You need to chill. I agreed that the filibuster may need to be removed for progress on certain issues, I never said it would solve everything forever. For some things, like entitlements, a short term advantage can almost be permanent as they are much harder to roll back, politically. So removing the filibuster to get a good healthcare plan through would certainly be worth it. However, other things can be rolled back much easier once the filibuster is gone and the Dems are out of power. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2019, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2763 "2019-11-15T20:15:54Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > … Seems like a no-brainer to me. Well we agree here that the idea is one with no brain … 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2019, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2764 "2019-11-15T20:21:16Z")
And I should point out, once again you are triggered by a pet topic being mentioned and ignored the context of the conversation you jumped into. pjacks complained about nominees talking about legislation with no plan for how they are getting passed. All his proposals were also things that couldn’t be directly accomplished by the President, which is what I pointed out. Then you barge in to tell me “argo blargo, filibuster bad. Wut your plan?!?”. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2019, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2765 "2019-11-15T20:45:36Z")
So, **pjacks** , you think it’s unrealistic for the President to promise anything that needs to get through the senators of 25 states, and your proposed solution is something that, in order to pass, would need to get through the senators of all 50 states? Because that is literally what you’d need to tie Senate representation to state population: Unanimous agreement of all 50 states. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2766 "2019-11-17T01:10:12Z")
[New Selzer poll of Iowa.](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/17/pete-buttigieg-leads-new-iowa-poll-warren-sanders-biden-follow/4198100002/) Buttigieg now leads. By a wide margin. > [@](#): > > Since September, Buttigieg has risen 16 percentage points among Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers, with 25% now saying he is their first choice for president. For the first time in the Register’s Iowa Poll, he bests rivals Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are now clustered in competition for second place and about 10 percentage points behind the South Bend, Indiana, mayor. Buttigieg 25 Warren 16 Biden 15 Sanders 15 If this is how Iowa shakes out, are fears of Buttigieg’s poor electability (and what that sort of performance would say about Biden) groundless or not? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2767 "2019-11-17T01:22:00Z")
Klobuchar next btw with 6. As to my question, Iowa caucus goers seem to care most about that, even as they choose him. > [@](#): > > A majority — 63% — say it’s more important to nominate a candidate with a strong chance to beat the president than to nominate a Democrat who shares their positions on major issues. Thirty-two percent say the opposite. … > > … Of the four candidates tested, Sanders shows the most weakness, with 31% saying they are “almost certain” he will lose. It’s 24% for Warren, 21% for Biden and 19% for Buttigieg. > > Biden fares best, with 25% saying he they are “almost certain he will beat” Trump. It is 17% for Sanders, 16% for Buttigieg and 15% for Warren. Among all poll respondents, 52% say they are fairly confident or almost certain Biden will beat Trump. Biden is the only one of the four top candidates to reach a majority. > > “Here is why Biden is still alive,” Selzer said, noting that 57% of Biden’s supporters say they are certain he will beat Trump. > > For Buttigieg, the poll’s front-runner, just 27% of his own supporters say they are “almost certain” he will beat Trump. Selzer said that may be the worst number for Buttigieg in this poll. > > “That’s 30 points behind Biden, yet Buttigieg leads in this poll,” Selzer said. > > “If the most important thing is to win, his supporters don’t have that confidence that he’s the one to do it,” she said. “So as this goes forward, he has more convincing to do or someone else will rise up.” And Warren likely course corrected because her own polling told her this: > [@](#): > > Biden and Buttigieg may also be benefiting from the 52% of likely Democratic caucusgoers who say they would rather see their nominee advocate for proposals that have a good chance of becoming law even if they do not represent big change. That’s more than the 36% who prefer a candidate who backs big ideas, even if there is a lower chance they would become law. This is going to get even more interesting. Patrick may have a chance to jump up as the less risky (from the electability POV) option. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2768 "2019-11-17T03:39:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > So, **pjacks** , you think it’s unrealistic for the President to promise anything that needs to get through the senators of 25 states, and your proposed solution is something that, in order to pass, would need to get through the senators of all 50 states? Because that is literally what you’d need to tie Senate representation to state population: Unanimous agreement of all 50 states. Sorry, as long as the candidates are discussing fantasy healthcare plans that will never exist, I thought I’d try my own hand at fiction writing. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2769 "2019-11-17T03:49:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [New Selzer poll of Iowa.](https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/11/17/pete-buttigieg-leads-new-iowa-poll-warren-sanders-biden-follow/4198100002/) Buttigieg now leads. By a wide margin. > > Buttigieg 25 > Warren 16 > Biden 15 > Sanders 15 > > If this is how Iowa shakes out, are fears of Buttigieg’s poor electability (and what that sort of performance would say about Biden) groundless or not? This certainly would be great for him if the Iowa caucus was next week. The problem is now he has the bullseye on him, and during the next debate he will be relentlessly attacked by everyone else, as is tradition in these endless dozen-person “debates” that we all are doomed to watch for what feels like eternity. So get ready for the attacks and the plummeting polls after all his warts are exposed, as we’ve already seen happen with Harris & Warren. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2770 "2019-11-17T04:20:47Z")
His weaknesses, and they most definitely exist, are not debate attackable ones. He will do better with the debate target on his back than others have I think. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2771 "2019-11-17T04:35:06Z")
Winning Iowa ain’t shit; the Iowa democrats tend to be left of left. Let’s see if Buttigieg can win Iowa and NH. ---
**Author:** ![pjacks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@pjacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pjacks)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2772 "2019-11-17T04:47:29Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > His weaknesses, and they most definitely exist, are not debate attackable ones. He will do better with the debate target on his back than others have I think. I remember when that twerp Swallwell went after him during one of the 1st debates, and he seemed to wilt under pressure and then faded away for the rest of the debate. I will predict that Castro has his guns ready to point at Pete, as he did against Beto. He seems to be angling to be Biden’s or Warren’s VP lately. Gabbard will probably say some bizarre things about Pete supporting colonizing the Middle East or some shit, and a certain segment of voters will eat it up. Klobachur will go after him hard, as she knows she could steal some of his voters and then suddenly find herself in the Iowa top 3. It won’t be pretty. If he can weather the attacks (and to be fair, Mean Pete in the last debate was a winner for sure), then that will prove he is electable more than anything else possibly could. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2773 "2019-11-17T06:41:31Z")
Has there been an analysis of recent Facebook propaganda? We already know that lies on social media are likely to decide the election, and that Kremlin and GOP operatives are smart enough to promote the candidates they fear the least. If Buttigieg is doing well in polls it may be, in part, because the Kremlin and the GOP want him to do well. Pollsters sometimes ask “If the election were held today, for whom would you vote between Trump and Buttigieg?” Many voters in the “Middle” probably know little about Buttigieg. How much would the poll results change, if pollster appended “Before you answer, note that Buttigieg is a homosexual who wants schools to teach your children to be homosexual.” (Never mind whether that last clause is a true fact. Just like ‘literally’, the phrase ‘true fact’ literally no longer has its traditional meaning.) ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 10:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2774 "2019-11-17T10:10:27Z")
Some fun reading. [Medicare for all act of 2006](https://www.congress.gov/bill/109th-congress/senate-bill/2229/text) bill by then Senator Ted Kennedy. > [@pjacks](#): > > I will predict that Castro has his guns ready to point at Pete, as he did against Beto. He seems to be angling to be Biden’s or Warren’s VP lately. Castro didn’t qualify for the 5th debate to be held on Nov. 20, 2019. His qualifying for the 6th debate looks unlikely since he didn’t make the donor threshold or any of the poll qualifiers yet. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2775 "2019-11-17T17:39:42Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > … If Buttigieg is doing well in polls it may be, in part, because the Kremlin and the GOP want him to do well. … This sort of absurd statement is Putin achieving his goal, to create a distrust of the democratic process as a whole. There is no question that the Russian interference machine is operational, and its actual ability to significantly move polls is small. Non-zero but small. In an national election that is decided by a few tens of thousand votes in a few states that tiny ability can be of import. In a primary in which making the stage depends on hitting or not hitting 3% in a few polls, it may be enough to get someone you consider an asset to getting your preferred views out over the threshold. But it is not what moves polls this degree, as much as Putin LOVES that you’d think it could and question that voters are so easily swayed in big numbers by misinformation manipulations. In case I have not been clear - I share the fear that Buttigieg is a huge electability risk, and for good reasons. He has no proven executive experience (his mayoral track record fails in that regard), no other national level experience, and no demonstrated ability to win significant support outside of the college educated white demographic. The easily anticipated attacks based on homophobia are possibly the least of it. But Sanders is, I think, even less electable, and while I _had_ managed to convince myself that Warren was electable I am now convinced otherwise. Biden has been meh. Still the placeholder but meh. Klobuchar has rarely shown anything that could be called charismatic or inspiring. Harris was a surprisingly awful candidate. I’m again seeing Patrick’s path as a realistic, or at least not completely unrealistic, one. If Biden does not place within the top three in Iowa while Buttigieg wins then less revolutionary progressive and center Left voters who care most about electability may be spooked about nominating someone who they think of as having such general election vulnerabilities, and a Patrick win in N.H. would set him up to do well on Super Tuesday. I think we’ve seen peak Warren. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2776 "2019-11-17T18:12:24Z")
Sorry to doublepost but researching out on Black voters’ takes on Buttigieg by way of a recent [YouGov national poll](https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7umtlf80ov/econTabReport.pdf). Clearly he is not the group’s current number one choice but, it seems, he is not actively disliked either. He is viewed unfavorably by 22% of Black voters in that poll. Not much differently than the 19% for Biden, the 19% for Sanders, or the 17% for Warren. The biggest group just doesn’t have ANY opinion about him favorable or un: 44% say “don’t know.” The others have lots more decided they like them than he does, but he has opportunity yet to connect. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2777 "2019-11-17T21:02:11Z")
My liken Buttigieg’s sudden burst in the polls to the striking of a match: A big flare-up followed by a quick burning out. My prediction remains a Biden/Warren ticket next November. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2778 "2019-11-17T21:33:31Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > My liken Buttigieg’s sudden burst in the polls to the striking of a match: A big flare-up followed by a quick burning out. My prediction remains a Biden/Warren ticket next November. Sounds great. Grandpa/Grandma 2020: “Don’t worry, she’s still sharp as a tack!” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2019, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2779 "2019-11-17T23:00:51Z")
I won’t say that the age of any of the candidates is disqualifying, but I will say that if any of the oldsters is the nominee, they absolutely need a young VP. Biden/Warren would be a terrible idea. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2019, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/2780 "2019-11-18T00:03:58Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > My liken Buttigieg’s sudden burst in the polls to the striking of a match: A big flare-up followed by a quick burning out. … Could be, I wouldn’t bet against it, but do you have any particular reason you believe so? Is it your gut, or the tea leaves, or what? And what specifically do you think struck the match? This is not a response to a good zinger in a debate, like Harris’s flare was. This is voters in Iowa (and to some degree New Hampshire, where he is not leading but in the most recent poll was in the pretty much tied for second behind Biden with Warren and Sanders … and they are each playing in their backyards there) just now deciding that he and his approach are more what they are looking for. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=138) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=140)