# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 177
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3521 "2020-02-10T20:51:42Z")
In this poll, Bernie has indisputably pulled into the lead. > **[Highlights From the Final Day Before Voting (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/new-hampshire-primary-02-10#bernie-sanders-national-poll)** > > In the last 24 hours before the first primary of the Democratic presidential contest — and perhaps the first decisive result — the candidates fanned out for a final stretch of campaigning. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3522 "2020-02-11T01:33:36Z")
Another national poll with Sanders leading released today, pushing him a few tenths of a percent ahead of Biden in the 538 average. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3523 "2020-02-11T01:40:59Z")
Good. That should freak out a few more people to Bloomberg’s camp! ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3524 "2020-02-11T02:24:07Z")
The numbers are far apart, but I wasn’t expecting to see Biden right next to Yang on the [NH RCP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3525 "2020-02-11T02:43:55Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > The numbers are far apart, but I wasn’t expecting to see Biden right next to Yang on the [NH RCP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html). My lord, get a grip. There is a top 4 currently. It should not surprise you that the lowest of the top 4 is “next to” someone from the lower pack. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3526 "2020-02-11T03:11:37Z")
Klobuchar has now moved to 3rd ahead of Biden and Warren, which pretty much seals Biden’s fate going forward. Klobuchar will take away the precious ‘centrist’ oxygen that Biden needs to keep going. The problem is, Klobuchar might also blunt Bloomberg’s rise. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3527 "2020-02-11T03:13:10Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > My lord, get a grip. There is a top 4 currently. It should not surprise you that the lowest of the top 4 is “next to” someone from the lower pack. Top 5 actually; Klobuchar is also ahead of Biden. And that average isn’t even counting Bloomberg. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3528 "2020-02-11T03:16:54Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Klobuchar has now moved to 3rd ahead of Biden and Warren, which pretty much seals Biden’s fate going forward. Klobuchar will take away the precious ‘centrist’ oxygen that Biden needs to keep going. The problem is, Klobuchar might also blunt Bloomberg’s rise. Why is that a problem? 🙂 For all the worry in certain quarters that the Dem establishment will sabotage Bernie, they certainly seem to be doing a terrible job of it! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3529 "2020-02-11T03:17:12Z")
Bernie vs. all of the non-Bernies would be the dream scenario for Bernie. Repeat of Trump-in-GOP-land 2016. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3530 "2020-02-11T03:20:51Z")
Yes, I realized too late I’d forgotten Klobuchar. As far as the next tier goes: Yang, Stier, Gabbard and Bloomberg are 2-3% on 538. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3531 "2020-02-11T03:31:02Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Bernie vs. all of the non-Bernies would be the dream scenario for Bernie. Repeat of Trump-in-GOP-land 2016. No. There is an important difference between Dem and Repubs. Dems have no winner-take-all primaries. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3532 "2020-02-11T03:44:14Z")
But there is a 15% threshold for getting delegates. Currently, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are all polling below that threshold nationally. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3533 "2020-02-11T04:00:44Z")
(I noticed a good article and wanted to bump our “Politics today are controlled by Liars” thread or whatever it’s called. But I couldn’t find that thread. Where is it? It is the Number #1 headline of today’s politics. I’ll post a link here as a place-holder and hope some eloquent Doper will start the important thread on this topic.) Political discourse and elections today are controlled by liars — whoever is adept at clever lies win. Good-spirited parties — like the Democrats — don’t approve of lying; thus they are destined to lose. This is not true just in the U.S. — some other countries around the world are following in the U.S.'s footsteps. All other political issues pale besides this one. Elections are naturally won by criminals and liars; and this dire situation is just getting worse and worse. [Here’s an Atlantic article which takes yet another look at this sad trend](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/03/the-2020-disinformation-war/605530/). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3534 "2020-02-11T04:45:59Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > But there is a 15% threshold for getting delegates. Currently, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are all polling below that threshold nationally. Bloomberg is now at 15% in Texas and 11% in Cali on 538. 3 weeks to go. I think implications above are not unlikely: He’s built some decent city level alliances that could suprise pollsters with GOTV. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3535 "2020-02-11T05:12:32Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > But there is a 15% threshold for getting delegates. Currently, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are all polling below that threshold nationally. [You sure about that?](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-our-first-big-national-poll-shows-just-how-unsettled-the-race-is/) > [@](#): > > Quinnipiac University released a national survey conducted entirely after Iowa voted, and it found a new polling front-runner: Sen. Bernie Sanders, who led the field with 25 percent support. … Just behind Biden, who polled at 17 percent, came former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 15 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg wasn’t too distant of a fifth at 10 percent So the first national poll conducted completely after Iowa has three at 15% or higher nationally - Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg - with Warren just below. Biden and Warren of course are both falling off the cliff while meanwhile Bloomberg and Sanders are on the rise. But of course the 15% threshold is not in a national race, but in individual state and even Congressional district level thresholds for delegates. We’ll be seeing state level Super Tuesday polling in the next few weeks … Just on the basis of funding to be able to compete in those states it may quickly be functionally down to Sanders v Bloomberg with Buttigieg and maybe Warren continuing to nip at their heels but barely, but picking up some delegates here and there. Not sure if Biden even keeps enough funding to be a heel nipper, but who knows? His personality type is to try to get back up after being knocked down more than most I think. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3536 "2020-02-11T06:16:21Z")
Would not have guessed two weeks ago that I’d be hoping for Biden’s numbers to improve. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3537 "2020-02-11T06:55:09Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Would not have guessed two weeks ago that I’d be hoping for Biden’s numbers to improve. Haha. You and me both. Which is weird in itself. But it has that ‘be careful what you wish for’ vibe to it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3538 "2020-02-11T11:00:36Z")
Nate Silver’s model leaves only about a 3% chance for Bloomberg to get a majority of delegates. I suppose stranger things have happened, but it’s very hard to see what his path could be. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3539 "2020-02-11T20:14:52Z")
[Calm down. Democrats are not in disarray.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/11/calm-down-democrats-are-not-disarray/) > [@Waldman](#): > > Everyone just calm down. > > People in politics suffer from a kind of myopia, in which what’s right in front of them, being in sharp focus, seems like the most important thing that has ever happened or will ever happen. This Changes Everything, we say over and over, despite the fact that the last 10 or 15 events that were supposed to Change Everything turned out to be so inconsequential that we’ve already forgotten what they were. > > And what is it that’s happening now, this extraordinary disarray that threatens to destroy Democrats’ chances of winning in November? You might want to send the children out of the room before I tell you: Presidential candidates are criticizing each other. I find his words reassuring. Criticizing other campaigns and candidates is part of the process; defending one’s preferred candidates and campaigns is, too. And so is the hand-fluttering about whether such criticism means that WE’RE ALL GONNA LOSE. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3540 "2020-02-11T23:36:29Z")
Klobmentum is coming! > [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=176) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=178)