# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2019, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/341 "2019-01-23T20:41:32Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Hey Uncle Joe, as you ponder whether or not you run in 2020, [maybe take a moment to explain why you were stumping for a Republican congressman (who was entirely beatable) in Michigan just before the 2018 midterms.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/us/politics/biden-speech-fred-upton.html) The 25 year incumbent who won by 4.5% (during a “blue wave”) was entirely beatable? I don’t know how he’d have to spin this in the primaries. “I’m great at bipartisanship!” probably isn’t the ticket in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2019, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/342 "2019-01-23T21:19:47Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The 25 year incumbent who won by 4.5% (during a “blue wave”) was entirely beatable? Yeah, he was. Upton was always listed as vulnerable leading up to the election. The fact that he won by 4.5% doesn’t say anything at all about whether he was beatable. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2019, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/343 "2019-01-23T21:53:58Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > The fact that he won by 4.5% doesn’t say anything at all about whether he was beatable. What does? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2019, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/344 "2019-01-23T22:19:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What does? And you’re arguing this here because…? Or, I’m not getting drawn in by another CarnalK sidetrack that completely misses the point of the original post. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2019, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/345 "2019-01-23T22:26:32Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What does? Oh fuck it. You want to know what shows he was beatable? [Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#lite). Leading up to the damn election, Matt Longjohn was shown to be within striking range of knocking off Upton. The fact that Longjohn DIDN’T win doesn’t mean that BEFORE the election, people didn’t see Upton as vulnerable and beatable. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2019, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/346 "2019-01-23T23:30:57Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Here’s Wiki on him: [Pete Buttigieg - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Buttigieg) > > Looks like some police issues in his city. Might be a hard sell for black Dems. A gay white man or any gay man is going to be a really, really hard sell for black Dems, in my opinion. African-Americans seem to me to be more parochial on issues like homosexuality, in the main, than white Democrats. It may be related to higher levels of religious observance, I’m not sure, but it does seem to exist. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/347 "2019-01-24T01:48:59Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Hey Uncle Joe, as you ponder whether or not you run in 2020, [maybe take a moment to explain why you were stumping for a Republican congressman (who was entirely beatable) in Michigan just before the 2018 midterms.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/us/politics/biden-speech-fred-upton.html) Per your link, the explanation seems to be “Because I was paid $200,000 to do so”. Holy shit. That’s terrible. Can I assume that all the people who despise Bernie Sanders for not being a “loyal Democrat” will now be calling for Biden to drop out of the race? ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/348 "2019-01-24T02:05:43Z")
Per this [538](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pete-buttigieg-2020-democratic-nomination/) article, he won re-election with 80% of the vote in a city that’s 46% minority, so it doesn’t seem to have been a big problem for him. Black support for gay marriage is currently at 51%, as opposed to 73% among Democrats. The last time the question was polled, in 2015, only 14% of Democrats said they wouldn’t consider voting for a gay Presidential candidate. 14% isn’t nothing, but it doesn’t seem like an insurmountable obstacle. Among the younger and hipper Democratic voters, gayness could actually be an advantage. It seems like a lot of Democrats think we need to nominate a white man, while a lot of others really want a minority candidate. Here’s a guy who could qualify as both! And being gay definitely won’t hurt his fundraising from the Hollywood crowd. I’m actually feeling kind of excited about him. My initial response was “Mayor of South Bend, Indiana? Next.”, which I imagine will be the initial response of most voters. But he checks a lot of boxes that people are looking for in the 2020 candidate: He’s young, he’s from the Rust Belt, he has an extremely impressive track record of both winning elections and governing effectively, he’s a veteran, he has experience successfully campaigning in minority communities, and he seems to be well liked and respected by both the progressive and establishment wings of the Party (a fairly impressive political achievement in itself!). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/349 "2019-01-24T05:03:34Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > And you’re arguing this here because…? > > Or, I’m not getting drawn in by another CarnalK sidetrack that completely misses the point of the original post. > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Oh fuck it. > > You want to know what shows he was beatable? [Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#lite). Leading up to the damn election, Matt Longjohn was shown to be within striking range of knocking off Upton. The fact that Longjohn DIDN’T win doesn’t mean that BEFORE the election, people didn’t see Upton as vulnerable and beatable. He wasn’t within striking range “leadng up to tbe election”. A Dem leaning poll company had a big swing in their numbers. And quite clearly, their polling wasn’t so great. Look, I clearly agreed with you that this is a problem for Biden, something that he’ll have ti explain. So I don’t get why you felt the need to get into bitchy mode with me. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/350 "2019-01-24T05:46:43Z")
Here’s the 538 page for the actual district we’re talking about: > **[Michigan 6th - 2018 House Forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/michigan/6/)** > > FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 House elections in the Michigan 6th district Aug R +6.9 Sep R +6.1 Oct R +6.0 Then within 10 days of the election we get one company put out +3.6R and on the eve of the election +.5D. Off by 5 points on the actual results. You’re buying into that. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/351 "2019-01-24T06:09:31Z")
Wow, you really put a lot of work into debating a parenthetical aside that has no real bearing on anything being discussed. Well done. Regarding Buttigeig: I think he’ll bring an interesting perspective to the debate stage, but I’d be surprised if he went anywhere besides a short list for veep. If we end up with a mayor for president, I don’t see it being a South Bend mayor. But honestly, I don’t see any mayor making it to the top of the ticket. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/352 "2019-01-24T06:13:35Z")
The Republican record for most candidates entering the presidential fray was 17 (the last cycle); what’s the Democratic record? It seems like we’re already getting halfway to a football team roster. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/353 "2019-01-24T06:21:32Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Wow, you really put a lot of work into debating a parenthetical aside that has no real bearing on anything being discussed. Well done. No, it was actually pretty simple to look up the reality. You should try it. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/354 "2019-01-24T13:56:15Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The Republican record for most candidates entering the presidential fray was 17 (the last cycle) And they all took turns as the Flavor of the Week, getting each of them some actual examination and prompt dismissal as unqualified, letting the others gang up on them in debates, until it was down to “Ohmygod, he’s really going to win, isn’t he?” ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 24, 2019, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/355 "2019-01-24T15:53:26Z")
There’s a nice short video for Pete Buttigieg here: [Pete Buttigieg Official Website](https://www.peteforamerica.com/meet-pete/) ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2019, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/356 "2019-01-25T01:09:22Z")
That ad was not great. Lots of generational identity, not lots of policy. With all the shots of him in fatigues, I actually thought, “So what, he’s the gay Tom Cotton?” Which is unfair, but that’s because it’s a pretty weak and superficial ad. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2019, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/357 "2019-01-25T02:00:40Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The Republican record for most candidates entering the presidential fray was 17 (the last cycle); what’s the Democratic record? It seems like we’re already getting halfway to a football team roster. Not a very _good_ football team.😉 ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2019, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/358 "2019-01-25T02:02:55Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Wow, you really put a lot of work into debating a parenthetical aside that has no real bearing on anything being discussed. Well done. > > Regarding Buttigeig: I think he’ll bring an interesting perspective to the debate stage, but I’d be surprised if he went anywhere besides a short list for veep. If we end up with a mayor for president, I don’t see it being a South Bend mayor. But honestly, I don’t see any mayor making it to the top of the ticket. Obviously, though, a campaign that takes him from “small city mayor” to “short list for veep” would be a huge success. I agree with you about mayors in general. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2019, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/359 "2019-01-25T02:07:30Z")
Question: if _almost_ winning an election in a red State is now enough to qualify you as a Presidential candidate, why aren’t people talking about Stacy Abrams? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2019, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/360 "2019-01-25T03:10:30Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Question: if _almost_ winning an election in a red State is now enough to qualify you as a Presidential candidate, why aren’t people talking about Stacy Abrams? Well a) it’s not enough. He probably isn’t running and it would be a bad idea. He mainly got famous for his robust campaigning and fundraising not for almost winning . And b) Beto was at least a US Congressman not a state one. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=19)