# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 184
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3661 "2020-02-14T23:53:28Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > It seems that maybe all money does is get you to your ceiling faster. It also seems that, in contrast to some overly simplistic views, voters are picking a candidate and not a “lane”. Those who expect that the current supporters of all the other candidates except Warren will eventually unify into an anti-Bernie monolith may be in for a surprise. You’re right. All the other candidates should just stop worrying about the Bloomberg spending and polling in all the Super Tuesday states. Sleep well, revolutionaries. Sleep well. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3662 "2020-02-15T03:36:52Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > People keep saying this but that is probably conventional wisdom that only applies to conventional presidents, not someone as polarizing as Trump, for whom his supporters would fiercely back him even if the economy were a smoking crater hole and whose opponents would line up a mile long at the crack of dawn to vote against him even if the Dow Jones hit 50,000. Trump has a pretty hard ceiling of support and also generates rage among his foes. His constant Tweeting and offensive words also ensure that his own approval doesn’t rise too high. > > The only way the economy could really help him would be if it turned white-hotter than the Sun (which it probably can’t because it’s as good as it gets). It’s helping him because as long as he can’t be blamed for a recession, then the question that wishy-washy voters ask is, “If things aren’t really broken, why change when we can vote him out in 4 years anyway?” In the general, it’ll be option A vs option B. And more often than not, this type of election is a referendum on the economy. ---
**Author:** ![str8cashhomie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7cd45c/32.png) [@str8cashhomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/str8cashhomie)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3663 "2020-02-15T04:01:30Z")
I’m definitely not going to make a prediction that Trump doesn’t have a good chance of winning because he does, but I do think he’s not the same as a lot of incumbents running on a good economy. He is more polarizing that most, and a higher proportion of voters than normal are going to vote against him regardless of the economy. He also relied on independent voters who are not normally hardline conservatives but bought into his angry message to win in 2016. Relying on them helped him out as an outsider, but now that he’s in charge, he is going to have a tougher time making a case to them. Obviously he and the GOP are going to try to paint him as a victim the way the have been from the start, but if he can lose some ground with this demo I think it can easily make up for the random swing voters who decide to vote for him or stay home because of the economy. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3664 "2020-02-15T04:05:09Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > [Now here’s an interesting poll.](https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-sanderss-strength-going-head-to-head-with-rivals-181522968.html) … Interesting in that it shows a Sanders ceiling higher than I thought it was. Albeit just one poll. In terms of Bloomberg’s head to heads nationally not too surprising for this point in the race. He is rapidly rising but still below both Sanders and Biden and still just a name they know and have some sense of to many. Way too early to say what his ceiling will be. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3665 "2020-02-15T04:21:52Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > The only Republicans who would vote for Sanders are diehard never-Trumpers who are sick of the disgrace he brings to the office of the president and the Republican party. However, I think it more likely that such voters will vote Republican downticket, and just not vote for Trump (leave it blank), or not show up at all. Sanders cannot capture dissenting Republicans so much I don’t think. No, your wrong. I would have voted for Sanders over Trump in 2012. You dont realize how many of us voted Trump because we hated Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3666 "2020-02-15T04:24:22Z")
Bloomberg should have just have been honest saying “yeah I put more cops in black neighborhoods, thats where the crime was. Its what you do. Its the opposite of sometimes police get angry at a neighborhood and simply quit responding to calls there”. Stop and frisk might have gone too far but I wonder how many robberies it stopped? Remember how Eisenhower sent troops to Arkansas to enforce federal rule. sometimes it has to be done. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3667 "2020-02-15T04:25:02Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > No, your wrong. I would have voted for Sanders over Trump in 2012. > > You dont realize how many of us voted Trump because we hated Hillary. Hated her so much you would have voted for Sanders when Obama was running for his second term! Speaking of, how did you vote in that election? Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3668 "2020-02-15T04:36:35Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Stop and frisk might have gone too far but I wonder how many robberies it stopped? The data is pretty solid just about none. Best evidence is the drop in crime rate to record lows after it was stopped. Some believe that the problem was in the implementation with not enough emphasis on documented probable cause and too much leeway given to police officer hunches (which may be explicitly or even implicitly racist just based on cognitive biases). But the facts that it accomplished little if any good and caused significant harms to many are not debated by many at this point. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3669 "2020-02-15T06:44:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The data is pretty solid just about none. Best evidence is the drop in crime rate to record lows after it was stopped. > > Some believe that the problem was in the implementation with not enough emphasis on documented probable cause and too much leeway given to police officer hunches (which may be explicitly or even implicitly racist just based on cognitive biases). But the facts that it accomplished little if any good and caused significant harms to many are not debated by many at this point. > **[14 Pros and Cons of Stop and Frisk Law and Policy](https://connectusfund.org/14-pros-and-cons-of-stop-and-frisk-law-and-policy)** > > The stop and frisk law and policy were implemented in New York City involves the temporary detainment of an individual to determine if there is something illegal on their person. These actions are sometimes referred \*1. Stop and frisk laws have helped to get weapons off of the street. Over a period of 10 years, there were a total of 4.4 million stop and frisk temporary detentions that took place in and around New York City. The official statistics show that 1.5% of those engagements with the public found a weapon on that individual. That means police officers were able to remove over 66,000 items that could have been used to harm someone else in the future. The arrest rate may be low with stop and frisk as well, but an average of 10% still means that there were 440,000 arrests made that may not have happened otherwise. Those are significant numbers that can justify to many city officials that the policies are working.\* _3. It creates significant reductions in crime. After the implementation of the stop and frisk policy in New York City, crime rates went down by about 20%. Cities like Newark that implemented similar policies, even if they call them by the more politically correct name of “field inquiries,” see similar results. It is a form of proactive policing that seeks to stop something bad from happening before it starts. Although some individuals are stopped on the street without having done anything to warrant a contact, most of these incidents occur after a call for service._ To be fair: \*List of the Cons of a Stop and Frisk Law and Policy 1. It is a policy that can be easily abused. Stop and frisk policies make it easier for police officers to follow their hunches instead of having objective evidence or a reasonable suspicion that something illegal may be occurring. This disadvantage is why the NYC version of this law and policy was ruled to be unconstitutional in the first place. Officers were engaging with African-Americans and Hispanics 83% of the time using this option to frisk, yet these two population demographics make up about half of the residents in the area.\* Sop it appears it _might_ have been a good idea, but had very poor implementation. And Bloomberg agrees: > **[Bloomberg apologizes for stop-and-frisk policy for the first time on the...](https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/politics/bloomberg-apologize-stop-and-frisk/index.html)** > > Michael Bloomberg apologized for the first time on the campaign trail Thursday for the New York Police Department’s “stop and frisk” policing tactic, which he repeatedly defended while serving as mayor of New York. The apology followed audio from... \*Michael Bloomberg apologized for the first time on the campaign trail Thursday for the New York Police Department’s “stop and frisk” policing tactic, which he repeatedly defended while serving as mayor of New York. The apology followed audio from 2015 surfacing earlier this week where Bloomberg is heard describing the policy as a way to reduce violence by throwing minority kids “up against the walls and frisk them.” His comments came during a launch event for “Mike for Black America” in Houston at the Buffalo Soldier National Museum. “There is one aspect of approach that I deeply regret, the abuse of police practice called stop and frisk,” Bloomberg said. “I defended it, looking back, for too long because I didn’t understand then the unintended pain it was causing to young black and brown families and their kids. I should have acted sooner and faster to stop it. I didn’t, and for that I apologize.” Bloomberg had previously apologized for the policy in November 2019, right before he announced his candidacy. \* On one level, up where the Mayor sits, it looked good, and could be a valuable tool. But some line police abused it, and honestly, it was a very easy tool to abuse. I am gonna give him a pass on this. But it aint a shining moment for him. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3670 "2020-02-15T15:48:30Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The data is pretty solid just about none. Best evidence is the drop in crime rate to record lows after it was stopped. Also, crime rates have been dropping since the 1990s all across the country. When cities A, B, C, D, E, and F try approaches 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, and cities G, H, I, and J do pretty much the same as they were doing when crime rates were increasing, and crime drops in all of them, it’s hard to argue that a particular approach was the reason for the drop. Now it’s always possible that every city tailored just the right approach for that particular city, but it’s very very improbable. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2020, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3671 "2020-02-15T16:44:53Z")
I think intent and motives matter, too. Bloomberg continued the stop-and-frisk policy for the same reasons that the 1994 Crime Bill was signed into law by Clinton. It was seen as a way to fight crime, keeping in mind the fact that in many American cities crimes were perpetrated by people of color against people of color. Stated differently, one concern was protecting people in these communities. Bloomberg continued the policy presumably because it was in place and he thought it was effective, without considering the deeper costs that aren’t so easily assessed such as the psychological trauma it was causing people in these communities, how it was criminalizing individuals without justification, and how it led to the breakdown in trust between the city police force and residents. I don’t think it’s accurate or even wise to compare Bloomberg’s approach, which was most likely based on good intentions but lack of awareness, to the police policies of the current administration, nearly all of which are intended to instill a sense of fear in immigrant communities and critics of the administration more broadly. Trump and the GOP have been able to persist through all of their scandal in no small part because of false equivalency. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3672 "2020-02-16T00:50:28Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > The black voters will end up deciding. Call me crazy, but I bet Bloomberg picks up the black vote from Biden. So what does that leave white voters? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3673 "2020-02-16T02:14:20Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > So what does that leave white voters? Also deciding. In context, your quoted text was discussing how stop and frisk would effect the black vote. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3674 "2020-02-16T02:23:07Z")
And not to bash Warren but this stop and frisk counter campaign that Bloomberg has run blows my mind how much better a politician he is. He has a massive shitty thing on his record but he basically rolled it out himself with a shit tonne of long secured minority leaders. Contrast with Warren rolling out her DNA bet win, with no good Cherokee support lined up. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3675 "2020-02-16T03:30:23Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > No, your wrong. I would have voted for Sanders over Trump in 2012. > > You dont realize how many of us voted Trump because we hated Hillary. I’m glad to be wrong in this instance. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3676 "2020-02-16T12:14:34Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > [Now here’s an interesting poll.](https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-sanderss-strength-going-head-to-head-with-rivals-181522968.html) > > YouGov ran a series of one-on-one matchups in the Democratic primary. If it came down to two candidates: > > Sanders 54-33 Klobuchar > Sanders 54-37 Buttigieg > Sanders 54-38 Bloomberg > Sanders 48-44 Biden > Sanders 44-42 Warren > > and on the other hand… > > Warren 52-38 Bloomberg > Biden 47-34 Bloomberg > Buttigieg 44-37 Bloomberg > Klobuchar 43-38 Bloomberg > > It seems that maybe all money does is get you to your ceiling faster. It also seems that, in contrast to some overly simplistic views, voters are picking a candidate and not a “lane”. Those who expect that the current supporters of all the other candidates except Warren will eventually unify into an anti-Bernie monolith may be in for a surprise. Sounds like a good argument for Warren to hang in there, even if Super Tuesday isn’t very super for her. > [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > More data calling the “lanes” paradigm into question. New Hampshire exit polls, broken down by self-identified ideology: Maybe I’m hanging out in the polling-geek corner of Twitter too much, but I’d have thought the whole ‘lanes’ thing had been thoroughly trashed by now. I think it applies to people like us who pay a great deal of attention to politics, but most people don’t. > [@asahi](#): > > Too lazy to check, but has SC released any new polls? [Yep](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/south-carolina/). East Carolina U. (unrated by 538), Feb. 12-13 (ETA: IOW, entirely after NH), 703 likely voters: Biden 28 Sanders 20 Steyer 14 Buttigieg 8 Klobuchar 7 Warren 7 Bloomberg 6 (but not on the ballot) Gabbard 1 The Buttigieg-through-Bloomberg group is statistically indistinguishable from one another, but the other gaps between candidates are outside the MOE. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3677 "2020-02-16T13:08:29Z")
Bloomberg may have a “me, too” problem: > **[A new report raises more questions about Bloomberg’s alleged sexism and...](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/15/21139131/bloomberg-alleged-sexism-sexual-harassment-washington-post-national-polls)** > > Bloomberg faces these questions, highlighted by a new Washington Post report, as he rises in national polls. According to another source (GQ, as I recall), Bloomberg’s been sued 40 times for gender discrimination and/or harassment. That’s going to complicate his nomination bid a bit, I’d think. ---
**Author:** ![Socsback](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@Socsback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Socsback)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3678 "2020-02-16T15:16:05Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > [Now here’s an interesting poll.](https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-sanderss-strength-going-head-to-head-with-rivals-181522968.html) > > YouGov ran a series of one-on-one matchups in the Democratic primary. If it came down to two candidates: > > Sanders 54-33 Klobuchar > Sanders 54-37 Buttigieg > Sanders 54-38 Bloomberg > Sanders 48-44 Biden > Sanders 44-42 Warren > > and on the other hand… > > Warren 52-38 Bloomberg > Biden 47-34 Bloomberg > Buttigieg 44-37 Bloomberg > Klobuchar 43-38 Bloomberg > > It seems that maybe all money does is get you to your ceiling faster. It also seems that, in contrast to some overly simplistic views, voters are picking a candidate and not a “lane”. Those who expect that the current supporters of all the other candidates except Warren will eventually unify into an anti-Bernie monolith may be in for a surprise. Something doesn’t add up here. We have data showing that Bernie and EW are drawing votes from the same “demographic”. All other polls (and actual votes in NH and Iowa) show Bernie beating EW by a significant margin. This one does not. Show me how this poll was conducted, and who was surveyed, and maybe I’ll consider it. Otherwise, it seems pretty suspect. It looks like a poll simply of progressive voters. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3679 "2020-02-16T21:37:51Z")
> [@Socsback](#): > > Something doesn’t add up here. We have data showing that Bernie and EW are drawing votes from the same “demographic”. All other polls (and actual votes in NH and Iowa) show Bernie beating EW by a significant margin. This one does not. When I was doing my own polling average in [this thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=877808), I got a pretty good idea of which candidates were always high or low in polls by which polling outfits. YouGov consistently showed more support for Warren than other pollsters did. ---
**Author:** ![Socsback](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@Socsback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Socsback)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2020, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/3680 "2020-02-16T22:07:28Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > When I was doing my own polling average in [this thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=877808), I got a pretty good idea of which candidates were always high or low in polls by which polling outfits. YouGov consistently showed more support for Warren than other pollsters did. OK. So that tells us … what? That they’re polling mostly progressive voters? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=183) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=185)