# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 45
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2019, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/881 "2019-04-09T06:28:06Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > (Except Howard Schultz, who is a dickhead who should GTF out.) As should Tulsi Gabbard. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/882 "2019-04-10T14:38:39Z")
Harris also way behind in her own home state. > **[Poll Results | Quinnipiac University Poll](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-results/)** > > Quinnipiac University Poll’s list of recent and past poll results for political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern. Early yet but Biden’s strength in the wake of a negative news cycle is notable. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2019, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/883 "2019-04-10T14:51:53Z")
I think there’s still a significant non zero chance that Biden announces and then wins the first several states. I’ll note that this is not my preferred outcome. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2019, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/884 "2019-04-16T15:04:29Z")
[Early state activists may be a good predictor.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2020-democrats-being-considered-by-early-state-activists/) These are from February, but I’m pleased to see greatest strength among my own favorites. (Turn off SultanBugs to view the table.) ```auto That's why I've been repeatedly interviewing a group of roughly 60 Democratic Party activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Washington, D.C ... Share of respondents who said they were considering a candidate or had already committed to support a candidate in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary Candidate Dec 2018 Feb 2019 Harris 60.5% 54.3% Booker 44.7 48.5 Brown 39.5 45.7 Warren 23.7 40.0 Klobuchar 34.2 37.1 Biden 39.5 34.3 Sanders 28.9 28.6 Gillibrand 21.1 22.9 Hickenlooper 21.1 22.9 Merkley 7.9 20.0 Delaney 15.8 17.1 Castro - 17.1 Buttigieg - 17.1 O'Rourke 34.2 14.3 McAuliffe 5.3 14.3 Bloomberg 15.8 8.6 Holder 18.4 8.6 Gabbard - 8.6 Bullock 2.6 5.6 Source: Seth Masket, "Learning from Loss: The Democrats, 2016-2020" ``` ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2019, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/885 "2019-04-16T15:58:50Z")
Just in case you were wondering, the Democratic blogosphere is not the Democratic electorate: [The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/08/upshot/democratic-electorate-twitter-real-life.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage%C2%A7ion=The) Upshot ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2019, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/886 "2019-04-18T04:00:20Z")
[Terry McAuliffe isn’t running.](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/439428-mcauliffe-says-he-wont-run-for-president-in-2020) Gotta say this is the first “Not running” announcement that made me think “Good fucking riddance.” Although Bloomberg did make me think “Good riddance,” but without the F-bomb. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2019, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/887 "2019-04-22T12:02:20Z")
[Rep. Seth Moulton is in.](https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2019/04/22/seth-moulton-joins-2020-presidential-race) A fine man but he’s overreaching. > [@](#): > > And when Trump claimed to be the target of the “single greatest witch hunt of a politician in American history,” Moulton responded that “as the Representative of Salem, MA, I can confirm that this is false.” > … > > He’s called health care “a right every American must be guaranteed,” pushed to toughen gun laws, was a co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, has championed a federal “Green Corps” modeled after the Civilian Conservation Corps of the 1930s, and has called for an end to the Electoral College. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/888 "2019-04-25T11:38:11Z")
Biden officially announces: “The core values of this nation… our standing in the world… our very democracy…everything that has made America – America --is at stake. That’s why today I’m announcing my candidacy for President of the United States. #Joe2020” https://www.youtube.com/embed/VbOU2fTg6cI?feature=oembed ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/889 "2019-04-25T13:09:38Z")
As of the present moment, I am leading towards Bernie Sanders or Amy Klobuchar (based on a combination of issues, record, and my sense of electability – I recognize that those two are very different), with Cory Booker somewhat close behind (mostly since I think he’s the most talented pure politician of the field, with a natural political ability as close to Obama or Bill Clinton as we’re likely to get with this field), and Kamala Harris close behind Booker. There are only a few of the field that I’m actively rooting against for the nomination – most of them are fine with me on the issues and their record. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/890 "2019-04-25T14:23:02Z")
If I could get whoever I wanted, I’d want Sanders or Warren. But electability is a major concern, and I don’t yet have enough data on that for most of the candidates. Nor do I trust my own gut assessment of the candidates’ electability: After all, whose gut told them that Trump was electable? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/891 "2019-04-25T14:25:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > As of the present moment, I am leading towards Bernie Sanders or Amy Klobuchar (based on a combination of issues, record, and my sense of electability – I recognize that those two are very different), with Cory Booker somewhat close behind (mostly since I think he’s the most talented pure politician of the field, with a natural political ability as close to Obama or Bill Clinton as we’re likely to get with this field), and Kamala Harris close behind Booker. … I agree with these choices … EXCEPT _ **exclude Sanders please!** _ This guy, who is five years older than Trump, will be branded as a Socialist; I’m afraid he’s unelectable. Recall that his strength in the 2016 primary season came from _caucuses_, with a demographic completely opposite from the Rust Belt know-nothings who will decide a general election. I’m also hoping that one of the longshots — perhaps Jay Inslee — will rise up, shine, and become a contender. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/892 "2019-04-25T14:45:19Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I agree with these choices … EXCEPT _ **exclude Sanders please!** _ This guy, who is five years older than Trump, will be branded as a Socialist; I’m afraid he’s unelectable. Recall that his strength in the 2016 primary season came from _caucuses_, with a demographic completely opposite from the Rust Belt know-nothings who will decide a general election. > > I’m also hoping that one of the longshots — perhaps Jay Inslee — will rise up, shine, and become a contender. Bernie won primary elections in Wisconsin and Michigan. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/893 "2019-04-25T14:45:58Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I agree with these choices … EXCEPT _ **exclude Sanders please!** _ This guy, who is five years older than Trump, will be branded as a Socialist; I’m afraid he’s unelectable. Recall that his strength in the 2016 primary season came from _caucuses_, with a demographic completely opposite from the Rust Belt know-nothings who will decide a general election. > > I’m also hoping that one of the longshots — perhaps Jay Inslee — will rise up, shine, and become a contender. Every Democrat will be branded as a socialist. But it’s just my sense, based on various polling data I’ve seen and conversations with voters. I don’t think Bernie is necessarily the most electable candidate, but I don’t think he’s the least either… and electability is not the only thing I’m considering. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/894 "2019-04-25T15:19:29Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Bernie won primary elections in Wisconsin and Michigan. Yes, but without the caucuses he never would have been a contender. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/895 "2019-04-25T15:24:37Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Every Democrat will be branded as a socialist. But it’s just my sense, based on various polling data I’ve seen and conversations with voters. I don’t think Bernie is necessarily the most electable candidate, but I don’t think he’s the least either… and electability is not the only thing I’m considering. Bernie is Ok. What I am concerned about is what the GOP and the Kremlin will use in their smear campaign. How will they Swiftboat him? So far, they were actually “supporting” him, so as to weaken Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/896 "2019-04-25T15:28:11Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I agree with these choices … EXCEPT _ **exclude Sanders please!** _ This guy, who is five years older than Trump, will be branded as a Socialist; I’m afraid he’s unelectable. As best we can tell this is flat out wrong. Sanders consistently did better than Clinton in the polls versus Trump. > [@](#): > > As Democratic leaders and strategists consider how they should campaign in the crucial midterm elections of 2018, they would be wise to consider why so many polls throughout 2016 showed that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) would have decisively defeated Donald Trump in a general election contest. > > My view, stated throughout the 2016 campaign, was that whether one supported Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the presidential primaries, it was vital that all Democrats fully understand why Sanders ran so far ahead of Trump in polling — usually by double digits — and markedly stronger than Clinton in match-up polling against Trump. > > SOURCE: [Sanders would’ve beat Trump in 2016 — just ask Trump pollsters](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/358599-sanders-wouldve-beat-trump-in-2016-just-ask-trump-pollsters) This time around not even Fox News is disregarding Sanders. > [@](#): > > Sanders’ base may be dyed-in-the-wool progressives, but his support extends far beyond that. In the 2016 Democratic primaries, rural working-class voters vastly preferred Sanders over Hillary Clinton. > > And while that’s common knowledge, what is often overlooked is the fact that 10 percent of all those who backed Sanders in the primaries cast their votes for Trump in the general election. More importantly, these voters were the deciding margin in states like Wisconsin and Michigan. > > Without the Sanders crossovers, Trump would not be president today. > > How can a Bernie Bro also be a Donald Dude? This voting phenomenon tells us that working-class voters are disenchanted with the status quo. > > The dynamic will become one of the central battlegrounds for 2020. Who can keep the working- class voter in the fold? > > SOURCE: [Could Sanders beat Trump in 2020? Yes – here’s how](https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/could-sanders-beat-trump-in-2020-yes-heres-how) “This voting phenomenon tells us that working-class voters are disenchanted with the status quo.” That would suggest Biden is a terrible choice since he is practically Clinton v2.0. No one in the current dem lineup represents the status quo more than Biden does. Hell, he embodies it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/897 "2019-04-25T16:01:59Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > As best we can tell this is flat out wrong. Sanders consistently did better than Clinton in the polls versus Trump. > > … > > That would suggest Biden is a terrible choice since he is practically Clinton v2.0. No one in the current dem lineup represents the status quo more than Biden does. Hell, he embodies it. Only because no Kremlin & GOP smear campaign, and in fact the opposite, they supported him vs Hillary. Those much linked polls are thus useless. The Smear campaigns lowered Hillary’s popularity by a significant amount. The Comey letter was the biggest, but the social media trolls and smear campaigns were significant. Actually no, Status Quo may be what we need. And there wont be any Comey letter for Biden, and we can already see the smear campaign : 1. Biden is a good and honorable man who gave a eulogy for a long term co-worker, concentrating on the few good things he did/ Smeared as: \*Biden said some nice things about a very bad man, thus Biden concurred 100% with everything that bad man did. \* 2. Biden is a old school baby-kissing and put his arms around people in pictures politico/ smeared as he is a creepy pedophile. 3. Biden is a smart campaigner and accepts funds from many sources/ Smeared as Biden is a tool of Big Banks/whatever. I want you to think about that- the Bernie-bros and co dug up a 2003 eulogy Biden did for a fellow Sentaro (Biden is the “go to” guy for eulogies in the Senate, see his very nice one for McCain) and somehow turned that into a smear.\*\* 16 yo eulogy. \*\* What can the Kremlin and GOP smear Sanders with? Dont tell me there aren’t things even worse that a 16 yo eulogy. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/898 "2019-04-25T16:06:05Z")
Right, Biden is a normal candidate. The electorate in 2016 clearly did not want a normal candidate. A firebrand like Sanders might appeal to many of the same people that Trump did. Or maybe, after four years of Trump, people will come to their senses and want a return to normality. I don’t know. And at this point, I’m not convinced anyone else does, either. Have there been any head-to-head polls of the Democratic front-runners vs. Trump? Yes, I know that polls aren’t entirely reliable, but they’re still the best source of information we have. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/899 "2019-04-25T16:20:49Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Right, Biden is a normal candidate. The electorate in 2016 clearly did not want a normal candidate. A firebrand like Sanders might appeal to many of the same people that Trump did. > > Or maybe, after four years of Trump, people will come to their senses and want a return to normality. I don’t know. And at this point, I’m not convinced anyone else does, either. This is actually what I was coming in to say too. What really matters, imo, are the industrial states Trump took in '16-- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Are more voters there looking to continue disrupting the status quo, or will more people there (and elsewhere) turn out for someone who represents a return to normalcy? And that’s how, as a Michigander, I’m gonna decide who to support. Bernie and Warren may represent my views ideologically, and I may want to see some real drastic change on behalf of the middle class, but I’m pulling the lever for the candidate I think will bring out more voters in November 2020, whether that’s Bernie, Booker, Biden or somebody else. Now more than ever, I’m looking at who will appeal to the most voters in those three states I mentioned. Is it more Bernie? Or more Biden? Right now I’m leaning toward a return to normalcy being the more popular option for voters in the industrial midwest, but who knows? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2019, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/900 "2019-04-25T18:17:06Z")
Looks like \*\*septimus \*\*and I are fairly close in our outlook. Here’s my current ranking (by preference, not as a handicapping of their chances) of the field–excluding those candidates I don’t see as worth discussing. They are ranked all the way from top to bottom, including within tiers, but being a tier above another candidate means a lot more to me than outranking someone within a tier. * * * HELL YES: Booker Inslee * * * WORKS FOR ME: Castro Harris Hickenlooper Swalwell Moulton Ryan * * * MEH: O’Rourke Gillibrand * * * DO. NOT. WANT: Klobuchar Biden Buttigieg Warren * * * DEAR GOD, NO: Yang Sanders * * * GTFO: Gabbard [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=44) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=46)