# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 56
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1101 "2019-05-14T18:50:21Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Yes, the redneck steelworkers of Pennsylvania might be far too misogynistic to turn out for a woman, especially “Pocahontas.” But if Liz can get the rednecks’ _wives_ to vote for her, she may still flip the Keystone State. IIRC, there was similar thinking in 1984 right up to election day; “Sure, the polls show that a lot of women _say_ they’re voting for Reagan, but a lot of those are wives standing right next to their husbands when they say it, and when they step into the voting booth and see the name Geraldine Ferraro next to Walter Mondale, well, that’s why it’s a secret ballot.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1102 "2019-05-14T19:16:28Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Kaine was pretty much a non-entity in 2016 - I bet a lot of people have already forgotten he was Clinton’s running mate. Duckworth isn’t ready yet, Cuomo has baggage, Crist isn’t well-liked…in fact that whole list is less a “Who’s Who” and more a “Who?”. VPs don’t have to be well known. THey have to be reassuring. A splashy pick would be a bad idea if the nominee is old. There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1103 "2019-05-14T19:19:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years. That’s ridiculous, at least depending on your definition of “young”. There are plenty of Democrats in office between 40 and 60 who are as ready to be president as most president-elects have been. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1104 "2019-05-14T19:21:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years. Fortunately, our Constitution has age qualifications for the office, so no young Democrats are running. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1105 "2019-05-14T19:26:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President Compared to Trump? You really wanna go there? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1106 "2019-05-14T19:48:04Z")
😕 Geraldine Ferraro was a nobody, running in the who-cares Veep slot against a popular President. Elizabeth Warren is _the_ top progressive Senator, doing well in the campaign (set aside two aging male dodderers) and is running against a monster. No, I’d be severely disappointed in the American electorate if they chose Trump over Warren. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1107 "2019-05-14T19:53:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > VPs don’t have to be well known. THey have to be reassuring. A splashy pick would be a bad idea if the nominee is old. There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years. Well, since you have to be 35 to be President, there are no young candidates in any party. :rolleyes::rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1108 "2019-05-14T20:00:35Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > No, I’d be severely disappointed in the American electorate if they chose Trump over Warren. Or Trump over anyone. I really will lose all hope if Trump is reelected no matter who gets the Democratic nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1109 "2019-05-14T21:22:51Z")
Any of the candidates _can_ defeat Trump. Even Clinton _could_ have done it. But possibility is not probability, and probability is not certainty. Anyone can do it, but who has the best chance? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1110 "2019-05-14T21:29:54Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > 😕 Geraldine Ferraro was a nobody, running in the who-cares Veep slot against a popular President. > Elizabeth Warren is _the_ top progressive Senator, doing well in the campaign (set aside two aging male dodderers) and is running against a monster. > > No, I’d be severely disappointed in the American electorate if they chose Trump over Warren. I’ve been rolling around a Biden-Warren ticket. She’s no spring chicken, although she’s almost a decade younger than Joe. And she doesn’t bring racial or geographic diversity to the ticket, but this combo is somewhat appealing to me and may be becoming more appealing the more I see things shake out. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1111 "2019-05-14T21:39:41Z")
Warren is terribly weak. Even Massachusetts voters don’t want her as president. > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Compared to Trump? You really wanna go there? For the umpteenth time: This. Is. Not. The. Metric. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1112 "2019-05-14T21:49:10Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I’ve been rolling around a Biden-Warren ticket. She’s no spring chicken, although she’s almost a decade younger than Joe. And she doesn’t bring racial or geographic diversity to the ticket, but this combo is somewhat appealing to me and may be becoming more appealing the more I see things shake out. I like this. Since both Trump and Biden will be of actuarial age, \*\*\*Pundits should stress the importance of debates between the Vice Pres. candidates. \*\*\* Let’s have lots of them, by proxy if Pence is too cowardly to opt in. I expect Warren to kill Pence in any debate. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1113 "2019-05-14T22:12:53Z")
The reason that it appeals to me is that they can both speak to blue collars, but Biden’s strength is that he can fire up people’s emotions. Warren’s strength balances that as she’s a policy wonk who can deliver on the ideas. I could see Biden being the ticket’s bulldog that does a lot of the attacks on Trump and fills the stadiums and just does Joe, while Warren does the retail side of campaigning and delivers the liberal/worker-friendly policy details. Biden brings the heart, Warren brings the brains. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1114 "2019-05-14T23:38:53Z")
I have no idea where you are getting this idea that she is strong with voters. She managed to win a primary seven years ago, and then has underperformed ever since, but she still wins comfortably because MA is so overwhelmingly blue. (Problem is, the U.S. as a whole is not.) > **[Elizabeth Warren lagging behind in Massachusetts poll](https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/04/07/elizabeth-warren-lagging-behind-in-massachusetts-poll/)** > > U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren ranks just third among presidential hopefuls in a new poll of Massachusetts Democratic primary voters. An Emerson College poll released Sunday has Vermont U.S. Sen. Berni… > [@](#): > > U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren ranks just third among presidential hopefuls in a new poll of Massachusetts Democratic primary voters. > > An Emerson College poll released Sunday has Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders leading with 26 percent, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 23 percent. Warren is next at 14 percent, followed by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11 percent, and no one else drawing double digits. > > “This is a concern for Warren who at this time does not have a firewall in her home state, and her rival Sanders has a strong base in the Bay State,” said Emerson polling chief Spencer Kimball. > **[How Much Was Incumbency Worth In 2018?](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-was-incumbency-worth-in-2018/)** > > For decades, running as an incumbent was undoubtedly a huge advantage in electoral politics. As recently as 20 years ago, holding office added an average of 8 p… > [@](#): > > Before an election, we really only know what partisan lean and elasticity look like,4 although we can guess at what the popular vote might be thanks to the the generic congressional ballot polling average. After an election, we know the popular vote and the election result, so we can roughly calculate what the net incumbency advantage might have been.[…] > For example, Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.3 percentage points,5 but Republican Rep. Chris Collins of the New York 27th District won his election by 0.6 points in a district with a partisan lean of R+22.9 and an elasticity score of 1.10. That means Collins performed about 13.2 points worse than we would have expected based on partisanship and the popular vote alone — a net incumbency disadvantage.6 Given that Collins was indicted on insider trading charges earlier this year and Republicans initially tried to replace him on the ballot, that dramatic negative number makes sense. > We did these calculations for every contested Senate and House election with an incumbent in 2018.7 In the House, net incumbency advantage ranged from +28.4 points for Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski (who ran against a Nazi sympathizer) to -13.2 points for Collins. In the Senate, it spanned +25.2 points (for Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia) to -14.6 points (for Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, a potential red flag for her rumored 2020 presidential campaign). So adjusting for partisan lean, Warren did the worst out of all the hundreds of senators and representatives who ran. Worse even than an indicted Republican congressman who the GOP tried to replace on the ballot. Dead fucking last. And you want to nominate THAT albatross for president?!? Please, no. Just…no. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1115 "2019-05-14T23:44:19Z")
I cosign Slacker’s post above. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1116 "2019-05-14T23:48:09Z")
I also don’t think she’d do well in a debate against Mike Pence. Pence is a brick wall, ice-cold, he’s very practiced at appearing calm and collected, and he is far smarter than people give him credit for. Every video I have watched of Warren makes me think she would be easily rattled in a debate and that she would not sound authoritative. Yeah yeah, I know, people are going to say I’m being sexist. But I don’t feel this way about Kamala Harris. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2019, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1117 "2019-05-14T23:52:57Z")
Her voice is grating. And similarly to Lamoral’s preemptive defense against a potential accusation of sexism, I don’t have the same reaction to the voices of Harris or Klobuchar, but I do also feel that way about Sanders’s voice. And I supported Hillary in the primaries in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2019, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1118 "2019-05-15T00:02:15Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I have no idea where you are getting this idea that she is strong with voters. She managed to win a primary seven years ago, and then has underperformed ever since, but she still wins comfortably because MA is so overwhelmingly blue. (Problem is, the U.S. as a whole is not.) > > [Elizabeth Warren lagging behind in Massachusetts poll – Boston Herald](https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/04/07/elizabeth-warren-lagging-behind-in-massachusetts-poll/) > > [How Much Was Incumbency Worth In 2018? | FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-was-incumbency-worth-in-2018/) > > So adjusting for partisan lean, Warren did the worst out of all the hundreds of senators and representatives who ran. Worse even than an indicted Republican congressman who the GOP tried to replace on the ballot. Dead fucking last. And you want to nominate THAT albatross for president?!? Please, no. Just…no. :smack: She’s not running for president of Massachusetts, and we don’t need to pick up Massachusetts to win the presidency, so frankly I don’t really care how she polls there right now. If she were on the presidential ticket, people in MA will vote for her regardless. I’m not saying she’s the perfect candidate, and I definitely don’t think she’s top-of-the-ticket material, but she’s been climbing in national polls, she recently campaigned in the heart of Trump country in WV and had Trump supporters nodding along with her, and if Sanders has peaked, she has the potential to pick up the progressive lane. Good grief people, we haven’t even had our first debate, and yet people are able to definitively say a top five candidate is dead in the water as a running mate already? Like I said, I don’t know how it will play out, but she’s not as toxic as some of you think, especially if she’s not taking all the lightning at the top of the ticket. What I’m looking for is someone who can deliver a blue-collar economic message to people in the Industrial Midwest, and I’m not convinced she can’t. Especially if Biden is at the top of the ticket filling the stadiums and driving the emotional message. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2019, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1119 "2019-05-15T00:16:27Z")
Elizabeth Warren just [turned down](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/14/elizabeth-warren-fox-news-town-hall-1320068) a Fox News town hall. Bernie Sanders just had a town hall on Fox News that turned out in his favor. From her [twitter](https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1128314853595189249) on why she did it: > [@](#): > > Here’s one place we can fight back: I won’t ask millions of Democratic primary voters to tune into an outlet that profits from racism and hate in order to see our candidates—especially when Fox will make even more money adding our valuable audience to their ratings numbers. Good move or bad move? ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2019, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1120 "2019-05-15T00:19:43Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > Elizabeth Warren just [turned down](https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/14/elizabeth-warren-fox-news-town-hall-1320068) a Fox News town hall. > > Bernie Sanders just had a town hall on Fox News that turned out in his favor. > > From her [twitter](https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1128314853595189249) on why she did it: > > Good move or bad move? There’s no law against having a picnic at the sewage-treatment plant. Doesn’t mean it’s a good idea. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=55) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=57)