# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 80
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1581 "2019-07-02T16:32:48Z")
That CNN exit poll shows Hillary beating Trump among college-educated white women 51-44 which seems close enough to call “swing” and which roughly overlaps with suburban white moms. IIRC this group was significant in winning back the House too. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1582 "2019-07-02T16:39:39Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > This issue may well die down in the primaries but if Harris becomes the nominee I would bet the Republicans resurrect it big time in the general. It’s a near perfect issue to target suburban white mothers who are a crucial swing demographic. How do you envision this playing out? An ad portraying bussing as a 2020 boogeyman? If Trump goes after Harris on this, all she has to do is pivot to talking about healthcare reform, immigration, gun control, and trade policy. Then it’ll be real obvious who is in touch with real issues. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1583 "2019-07-02T16:40:22Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > [OC went blue in 2016.](https://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-election-aftermath-updates-trail-orange-county-turns-1478716018-htmlstory.html) That further undermines your claim, then. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1584 "2019-07-02T16:45:49Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > How do you envision this playing out? An ad portraying bussing as a 2020 boogeyman? If Trump goes after Harris on this, all she has to do is pivot to talking about healthcare reform, immigration, gun control, and trade policy. Then it’ll be real obvious who is in touch with real issues. I could see this working very effectively as a targeted ad campaign using Facebook. It may be a boogeyman to you but probably won’t be for a middle-aged mother of school going children with bad childhood memories of busing. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1585 "2019-07-02T16:51:35Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > I could see this working very effectively as a targeted ad campaign using Facebook. It may be a boogeyman to you but probably won’t be for a middle-aged mother of school going children with bad childhood memories of busing. I highly doubt it. Exactly how many middle aged mothers do you imagine have bad childhood memories of busing? How many are really going to believe Harris is trying to resurrect the policy when she rather clearly is not? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1586 "2019-07-02T16:58:43Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > The same surburban white moms who [consistently voted Republican for over 30 years](https://www.thenation.com/article/the-reasons-why-white-women-vote-republican-and-what-to-do-about-it/)? Why are they considered “swing voters” this time? > > Also, 2016: [Exit Polls 2016](https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls) > [@RTFirefly](#): > > I notice the first article is dated February 2018 - _before_ Orange County went blue. > [@JohnT](#): > > [OC went blue in 2016.](https://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-election-aftermath-updates-trail-orange-county-turns-1478716018-htmlstory.html) > [@RTFirefly](#): > > That further undermines your claim, then. LOL, trying to have it both ways, eh? “Your cite is before OC went blue - your argument is invalid!” “Uh, no…” “Your cite is after OC went blue - your argument is invalid!” Sorry, but “white suburban moms” aren’t going to save the country from Trump. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1587 "2019-07-02T17:04:36Z")
It just seems weird to me to go after a candidate for being on the right side, as far as history went, but on the wrong side of where Democrats WISH history had gone, even though none of them are brave enough to call for forced busing in 2019. It’s got to be the weirdest debate I’ve ever seen. What’s next, the silver standard? 54-40 or fight? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1588 "2019-07-02T17:09:25Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > He couldn’t beat Cruz, why would he be able to beat Cornyn? I think Castro would have a better chance. Beto had his 15 minutes of fame, to me he appears just to be an empty suit. Agreed - Cornyn is a much stronger incumbent than Cruz. O’Rourke is most likely a fad whose time has come and gone. Nice guy, but I don’t see him going much beyond congressman. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1589 "2019-07-02T17:21:45Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > LOL, trying to have it both ways, eh? > > “Your cite is before OC went blue - your argument is invalid!” > > “Uh, no…” > > “Your cite is after OC went blue - your argument is invalid!” > > Sorry, but “white suburban moms” aren’t going to save the country from Trump. Look, it doesn’t matter _when_ white suburban moms went Democratic. As long as they _did_ at some point, you’re wrong. All I was doing was giving your source the benefit of the doubt on 2016. Having done so doesn’t undermine my point: by 2018, a lot of white suburban moms were voting Dem, helping them win the House. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1590 "2019-07-02T17:22:18Z")
Wow, Buttigieg crushed Bernie in second quarter fundraising. [https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/us/politics/bernie-sanders-fundraising.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/us/politics/bernie-sanders-fundraising.html) Buttigieg raised almost 25 million compared to Bernie’s 18 million. This is huge, Bernie was well known for his email donor list and how many times did we hear about $24 last time around. Bernie the sequel isn’t catching fire a second time. He’s more like Caddyshack II than Toy Story II ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1591 "2019-07-02T17:24:22Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I highly doubt it. Exactly how many middle aged mothers do you imagine have bad childhood memories of busing? Well obviously that is just one example of a target. There is a much larger group of people who were old enough in the 70s and 80s to remember the controversy. This was a very big deal at the time. > [@](#): > > How many are really going to believe Harris is trying to resurrect the policy when she rather clearly is not? Do I believe that Harris will bring back forced busing? No. However the pro-busing statements she has made are already enough fodder for attacks to put her on the defensive where she has to laboriously explain the kind of busing that she wants versus the one that many people hated. It’s just bad terrain for her and the Democratic party ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1592 "2019-07-02T17:28:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It just seems weird to me to go after a candidate for being on the right side, as far as history went, but on the wrong side of where Democrats WISH history had gone, even though none of them are brave enough to call for forced busing in 2019. You missed where Harris [did exactly that](https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1145466787225571328). > [@](#): > > It’s got to be the weirdest debate I’ve ever seen. What’s next, the silver standard? 54-40 or fight? The reality is, schools aren’t a whole lot more integrated in 2019 than they were in 1969. Unless one believes in “separate but equal” this is not a good thing. I don’t know if anyone’s come up with any better solutions to this than busing, but if they have, it hasn’t gotten much play. And whatever workable solutions exist, the Federal government would need to play a role in enforcement, because many jurisdictions would be happy to let things remain as they are. This may be a debate that’s been revived from a distant era, but that doesn’t mean it’s an anachronism. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1593 "2019-07-02T17:30:34Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Look, it doesn’t matter _when_ white suburban moms went Democratic. As long as they _did_ at some point, you’re wrong. > > All I was doing was giving your source the benefit of the doubt on 2016. Having done so doesn’t undermine my point: by 2018, a lot of white suburban moms were voting Dem, helping them win the House. In 2018, white women went 50:50 on Repub vs. Dem. Cite: [The 2018 midterm vote: Divisions by race, gender, education | Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/08/the-2018-midterm-vote-divisions-by-race-gender-education/) In 2016, white women went 43% Dem, 52% Repub, 5% other. Cite: [Exit Polls 2016](https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls) At _best_, Trump lost 2% of the white female vote from 2016 to 2018. _At best_, the Dems picked up the 5% who voted 3rd party and, perhaps, gained 2% of those who voted Trump. Again, don’t depend on white women being swing voters. They’re not. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1594 "2019-07-02T18:07:01Z")
On the lighter side of this topic, I was going over the California Delegtate Selection Plan (mainly to see (a) what method California uses to divide up its district-based delegates, and (b) whether or not it actually uses the “half of the leader” rule, where if nobody gets 15%, the minimum needed to get any delegates is “half of what the leader got”), and I noticed something strange concerning how delegates are selected. The national party rules say that delegates must be divided as equally as possible between (self-identified) men and women, with any “nonbinary” persons not counted as either towards this limit. However, California’s party rules apparently do not allow for designations of “men” and “women,” but “those who do not self-identify as female” and “those who do.” Er, aren’t all people who consider themselves “nonbinary” also “not self-identified as female”? Is it that big of a problem, just for this case, to say, “self-identified as male” in the delegate division? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1595 "2019-07-02T18:07:33Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > [New Iowa poll](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/02/iowa-kamala-harris-surges-and-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-suffer/1626346001/) (USA Today/Suffolk): > > Biden 24% > Harris 16% > Warren 13% > Sanders 9% > Buttigieg 6% > > ETA: MOE 4.4% And 22% Undecided. This and other polls the last couple of days make me think the field can be thinned a good deal. I suppose there is a chance one of the lower tier candidates could catch on but that window is closing fast. If you add Booker and Castro to the ones listed above I would expect that to be the field in the near future. I don’t see any chance left for Hickenlooper, Delaney, Swallwell, Gabbard, Williamson, O’Rourke or Yang. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1596 "2019-07-02T18:18:55Z")
A group that divides 50/50 is not a swing group? > [@CarnalK](#): > > I really doubt this will last til the general, I doubt anyone will be talking about busing a month from now. It’s too much of a long dead issue to keep anyone interested even if her opponents try to keep it alive. This. Anyone who has paid attention to my posting history knows that I often fret about Democrats jeopardizing their chances by taking positions outside the mainstream. This is just not one of those cases. I started school in the late ‘70s and I remember when it was a hot button issue. That time has passed. Republicans will not be able to make hay with it any more than they can with “stagflation” or “miscegenation”. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > [New Iowa poll](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/02/iowa-kamala-harris-surges-and-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-suffer/1626346001/) (USA Today/Suffolk): > > Biden 24% > Harris 16% > Warren 13% > Sanders 9% > Buttigieg 6% > > ETA: MOE 4.4% Nice. Weren’t Bernie and Pete once virtually tied for the lead? > [@dalej42](#): > > Wow, Buttigieg crushed Bernie in second quarter fundraising. > [https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/us/politics/bernie-sanders-fundraising.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/us/politics/bernie-sanders-fundraising.html) > Buttigieg raised almost 25 million compared to Bernie’s 18 million. This is huge, Bernie was well known for his email donor list and how many times did we hear about $24 last time around. Bernie the sequel isn’t catching fire a second time. He’s more like Caddyshack II than Toy Story II LOL, I am going to steal this! > [@Gyrate](#): > > The buzz I’ve seen and heard in younger circles in this regard is around Buttegieg: the words “calm” and “intelligent” appear a lot. This isn’t necessarily translating into making him a frontrunner - considering Pete to have the right personality for the job doesn’t mean he’s the most electable, particularly given his limited experience - but if his plan this time around is primarily to build a brand for a later run he’s doing a good job of it. Agreed, except he is blocked in Indiana from building his resume. I think he really needs a Cabinet position (VP would also work of course). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1597 "2019-07-02T18:50:22Z")
And we have a fresh [Quinnipiac poll](https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631), hot off the presses: > [@](#): > > After Democratic presidential contenders duked it out over two nights of debates, former Vice President Joseph Biden hits his lowest number yet in the Democratic primary race with 22 percent of the vote among Democrats and Democratic leaners, virtually tied with California Sen. Kamala Harris who has 20 percent of the vote. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows at 14 percent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 13 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 4 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University National Poll released today. No other candidate tops 3 percent. > > This compares to a June 11, 2019 Quinnipiac University Poll which had Biden at 30 percent, Sanders getting 19 percent, Warren with 15 percent, Buttigieg at 8 percent, and Harris with 7 percent. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1598 "2019-07-02T18:58:19Z")
Ooooh! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1599 "2019-07-02T19:04:33Z")
Man, CNN and the Q-poll hit almost exactly the same numbers. Quinnipiac had Harris 3 points higher than CNN, and had Beto 2 points lower, but those were the only candidates where they differed by more than 1 percentage point. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1600 "2019-07-02T19:11:11Z")
Kamala Harris has dominated Google Search since the debates, which is what Biden had been doing up to that point. My own analysis (admittedly not scientific) factors in poll numbers (which are still coming in) and Google Search, and they show that Biden is not that far ahead of Harris, despite what the polls might say. Biden is bleeding badly, and Harris is closing in. It’s also significant in that Harris is the first of the 2-5 candidates to make a real move on Biden’s place atop the leader board. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=79) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=81)