# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 81
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1601 "2019-07-02T19:48:29Z")
Also: “The race is similarly close for white Democratic voters, with Biden at 21 percent, and both Harris and Warren at 20 percent. **Harris also essentially catches Biden among black Democratic voters, a historically strong voting bloc for Biden, with Biden at 31 percent and Harris at 27 percent.** ” If y’all recall, HRC had an over 50% advantage in the African-American vote in the 2016 primaries. Biden’s reputation in this sector is completely overblown. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1602 "2019-07-02T20:03:48Z")
way too early to declare Biden is in big trouble. McCain was declared dead early in 2008 and he recovered to get the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1603 "2019-07-02T20:23:59Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > This issue may well die down in the primaries but if Harris becomes the nominee I would bet the Republicans resurrect it big time in the general. It’s a near perfect issue to target suburban white mothers who are a crucial swing demographic. > [@Lantern](#): > > That CNN exit poll shows Hillary beating Trump among college-educated white women 51-44 which seems close enough to call “swing” and which roughly overlaps with suburban white moms. IIRC this group was significant in winning back the House too. So, what do they say about Biden, Bernie, and Harris? [https://indivisible.org/statement/indivisible-supporter-poll-warren-and-harris-lead-after-strong-debate-performances](https://indivisible.org/statement/indivisible-supporter-poll-warren-and-harris-lead-after-strong-debate-performances) Indivisible, one of the best vehicles of the “Resistor Mom” vote which sprung up in late 2016, early 2017 says this in an internal poll: Candidate: % of members who are still considering voting for this person (in the D primaries, of course), % decided against voting for this person: Warren: 84,6 Harris: 83, 7 Buttigieg: 61, 15 Castro: 47, 18 Booker: 44, 21 Biden: 35, 42 Bernie: 32, 45 Beto: 11, 56 I don’t think this slice of the electorate is as critical to Dems chances as y’all do, but if I’m wrong (very likely!) here’s yet another group in which Biden is nowhere near as strong as we’ve been hearing. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1604 "2019-07-02T20:55:10Z")
Interesting numbers but a Democratic activist group is hardly representative of the general election suburban female electorate. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2019, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1605 "2019-07-02T21:15:31Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Interesting numbers but a Democratic activist group is hardly representative of the general election suburban female electorate. I’m not sure why you speak with such confidence about how middle aged suburban moms feel. Why are they going to give a crap about this anymore than any other demographic? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1606 "2019-07-03T00:24:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I’m not sure why you speak with such confidence about how middle aged suburban moms feel. Why are they going to give a crap about this anymore than any other demographic? Mandatory busing finished dying in the 90s because no demographic, including Black voters, thought it was a good idea. Suburban parents in general like their kids’ schools. The school was often a major factor in choosing where to live. They serve on the local PTOs and socialize with other local parents. They go to their kids’ games, their shows and presentations, and support their kids’ clubs. Their kids socialize with other kids from school after school. You really think that they will take well to being told that a candidate wants to make their kids leave their current social groups and friendships, against their wishes, and be bused 45 minutes or so farther away, to a school very much not of their choice? Now mind you urban parents, even in very underperforming schools, will often react the same way. Parents all over often like to be involved in their children’s neighborhood schools, to bond with other parents regarding school issues, and to participate in activities. Having the choice to send your kid somewhere else, a magnet school for example, might be something different, but that is _a choice_. Parents will in general care first about their own kids best interests as they perceive them. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1607 "2019-07-03T00:42:44Z")
We’re in the quarterly reporting window for FEC fundraising reports. The quarter ended June 30th and reports are due by July 15th. Buttigieg was the first to report. I assume that’s an intentional effort to get good news out in order to create positive buzz about electability. He pulled in 24.8 million in the three months from 294k contributors. The contributors meets the third debate inclusion criteria assuming it’s distributed properly among the states. As a point of comparison, Sanders campaign manager gave an insight into what they will report during a teleconference - 18 million from “nearly 1 million individual contributions.” They also transferred 6 million from previous FEC accounts. Presumably, that’s any last little bits of his 2016 Presidential campaign but mostly his bigger Senate reelection campaign funds. [Cite](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pete-buttigieg-reveals-248-million-haul-as-candidates-start-to-post-second-quarter-fundraising-totals-2019-07-01?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo) ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1608 "2019-07-03T01:00:33Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Mandatory busing finished dying in the 90s because no demographic, including Black voters, thought it was a good idea. You are talking about history. None of this shit is on anyone’s minds right now. Current events are laden with much more salient issues. If these mothers you’re talking about aren’t already turned off by the GOP because of its position on abortion, healthcare access, tax reform, gun control, and the pussy grabbing misogynist in the office, then they are lost causes anyway. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1609 "2019-07-03T01:04:30Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > . > You really think that they will take well to being told that a candidate wants to make their kids leave their current social groups and friendships, against their wishes, and be bused 45 minutes or so farther away, to a school very much not of their choice? No, but if someone was going to seriously propose mandatory busing, which I’m still unsure is a Harris policy plank, there are ways to do it that are less offensive. Like saying 45 minute commutes would not be acceptable. The integration program in Harris’ old school district is much more sophisticated nowadays: > [@](#): > > The Berkeley school board has adapted its plan over the past five decades to respond to the changing racial demographics of the city. In 2004, the board adopted an approach that divides the city into more than 400 micro-neighborhoods and asks all families to submit their school choices. Student placements take both school diversity and family preferences into account, without looking at the race or ethnicity of any individual student. Berkeley’s innovative approach received renewed attention after the U.S. Supreme Court, in the 2007 case Parents Involved v. Seattle, ruled against using race as a factor in voluntary school-desegregation plans in Louisville, Kentucky, and Seattle. (Like Berkeley, Louisville has found creative ways to maintain diverse schools, despite the court’s ruling). The scholars Lisa Chavez and Erica Frankenberg argued in 2009, “The Berkeley plan is a proven success that has been very well received by the courts.” [The Atlantic:There’s a Generational Shift in the Debate Over Busing](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/07/kamala-harris-and-busing-debate/593047/) Maybe that’s not the debate to have in this election but if she gets roped into owning this much longer, there’s ways to defend it and many ways to hint it’s not top of the priority list. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1610 "2019-07-03T01:10:36Z")
As to poll numbers. I think everyone remembers following polls slavishly last cycle and all the Dopers who reacted to every bump following a particular positive or negative news cycle as if it was the end for one or the other candidate and would linearly proceed from there. Most bounces were transient, peaking a week or so after the news bit. Dem convention ended 7/28, peak bounce was 8/8 to 8/18 … so on. I reserve judgement about long term impacts on national polling in the one to two weeks immediately following a news cycle. That said polls are mixed. Morning Consult is still Biden +14, HarrisX still +14 too. OTOH I am more interested in Iowa’s numbers as they have been following more closely longer. That Suffolk poll has Harris jumping up, but Biden still leads there by 8 points with 24, during a horrific news for him news cycle. The biggest news there is the complete plummet of Sanders. Biden had 24 leading the second place person by 8 on the Selzer poll last month. He seems fairly steady there. It’s just that now Harris is in Sanders’ second place. Maybe Iowa just hasn’t caught up to the rest of the country on this? Could be. Or could be that the rest of the country responds to news cycles with greater volatility. We’ll see. I do recall some here “wondering” if and others declaring that Biden was done before even announcing after a bad news cycle. So i take such pronouncements for what they are worth. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1611 "2019-07-03T01:24:27Z")
If she becomes the candidate I pray she can pivot but she has really painted herself in. None of this shit was on anyone’s minds but it is now. She has made busing her own origin story, without which she, the child of research physician and a Stanford professor, who went to school in Canada from 12 through High School, would never had achieved academically. She has made objecting to _mandatory_ busing something that minimally demands an apology and that is personally hurtful to her. She has stated clearly that its being mandatory is needed and implied strongly that having been against that was code for minimally pandering to racism. How do you back down from that? What you didn’t mean what you clearly said when you said how much his being against its being mandatory was so personally hurtful to you? **you with the face** there are moms turned off by Trump to various degrees. That doesn’t mean they cannot be turned off more by positions that they feel directly threaten their own kids’ futures. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1612 "2019-07-03T04:06:23Z")
The Supremes ruled years ago that the feds cannot mandate busing across city boundaries. So it’s a moot point for anyone living in an affluent suburb. > [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > way too early to declare Biden is in big trouble. McCain was declared dead early in 2008 and he recovered to get the nomination. Yes, and the same happened with John Kerry four years earlier. I think it’s different this time. I see zero evidence that Biden has the vigor and tenacity to mount a resurgence. And there are constant leaks from his campaign staff that “the old guy won’t listen to us”, as Axelrod and Murphy put it. That’s not only a bad sign about Biden himself, but also about his campaign. As Axelrod pointed out, staffers in Obama’s inner circle never pulled shit like that. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1613 "2019-07-03T04:25:55Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I don’t think the problem is that the left is unwilling to compromise; the more likely danger is that culture war politics redirects the emphasis away from unifying themes and puts more spotlight on themes that, while important to address in terms of policy, are less likely to unify progressives of all stripe. Exactly this. If these issues are emphasized, the independents and working class people needed for victory will be scared away from the Democrats. There are ways to sell these ideas but the time for that is after the election. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1614 "2019-07-03T04:38:29Z")
I don’t care if candidates cry foul, the Democrats need to end this debate party bullshit right quick. They need to rig the system so that only a handful qualify after next month. Ideally, they whittle the field down to 5-8 candidates, of which maybe 2 or 3 have a legit shot. Right now, there’s too many gray haired white men, too many mannequin candidates, too many identity candidates, and too many cartoon candidates. Memo to Dems: narrow - the fuck - down. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1615 "2019-07-03T05:16:45Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I don’t care if candidates cry foul, the Democrats need to end this debate party bullshit right quick. They need to rig the system so that only a handful qualify after next month. Ideally, they whittle the field down to 5-8 candidates, of which maybe 2 or 3 have a legit shot. Right now, there’s too many gray haired white men, too many mannequin candidates, too many identity candidates, and too many cartoon candidates. > > Memo to Dems: narrow - the fuck - down. I’ve said it elsewhere and I will repeat it here: Biden Sanders Harris Warren Buttigieg Booker Castro Maybe Inslee and Klobuchar if keeping the field larger is desired. Those are the only ones needed on the stage going forward. I don’t see any of the others having a realistic chance. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1616 "2019-07-03T12:23:55Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Given the debate interaction in which she pilloried Biden for being for voluntary but not forced busing she is stuck with either arguing for forced or that Biden had the correct position all along after all. It’s possible to force the district but not the individual families. District has to allow children to go to any school in the district, and to provide transportation. Parents can choose which school to send their kids to. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1617 "2019-07-03T12:28:47Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > They need to rig the system so that only a handful qualify after next month. Ideally, they whittle the field down to 5-8 candidates, of which maybe 2 or 3 have a legit shot. That’s exactly what they’re doing, with much higher poll standings and numbers of donors required for the next round. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1618 "2019-07-03T12:39:37Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > That’s exactly what they’re doing, with much higher poll standings and numbers of donors required for the next round. AFAIK, the next debate at the end of July uses the same thresholds. The thresholds increase for the third debates, which are in the middle of September. That’s not quick whittling. > **[Democratic Party Debate Schedule | 2020 Primary Debates - Election Central](https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2020-debate-schedule/2020-democratic-debate-schedule/)** > > The 2019-2020 Democratic Debate Schedule from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) including start time, candidates, tv channel, and moderators ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1619 "2019-07-03T13:43:00Z")
Thanks. [Only 14 are sure to be there](https://www.msn.com/g00/en-us/news/politics/analysis-here-are-the-democrats-at-risk-of-not-making-the-july-debates/ar-AADN4Ja?ocid=spartanntp&i10c.ua=5&i10c.encReferrer=), which is still frustratingly many (we wanna know _now_, dammit!) but it’s still early. > [@](#): > > Seven additional candidates, six of whom took part in last week’s debates, have qualified only by one of two metrics — meeting the polling threshold — meaning they are on the bubble and the Democratic National Committee’s tiebreakers will come into play. > > At the moment, former Representative John Delaney of Maryland, former Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio appear to have an advantage over the other four. Each of them has at some point earned 2 percent support in a qualifying poll, which raises their polling averages. (For the purposes of the tiebreaker, the D.N.C. will average each candidate’s best three polls.) > > That leaves Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York and Representative Eric Swalwell of California in a virtual deadlock. Mr. Bullock is the only candidate in this group who did not debate last week. All four men appear to have the exact same polling average: 1 percent. > … > > Three more candidates — Mayor Wayne Messam of Miramar, Fla.; Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts; and former Representative Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania — do not appear to have qualified for the debate via donors or polling. Though there is still time for that to change, those candidates will face an uphill battle for a spot on the stage, even if they manage to qualify. > … > > The 14 candidates who have locked in a spot on the July debate stage by qualifying through both donors and polling, in alphabetical order, are: former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.; Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey; Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind.; former housing secretary Julián Castro; Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii; Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York; Senator Kamala Harris of California; Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington; Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota; former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas; Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont; Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts; self-help author Marianne Williamson; and former tech executive Andrew Yang. If you’re not beating Marianne Williamson, it’s time to reconsider your life choices, friend. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2019, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1620 "2019-07-03T13:56:09Z")
Biden’s support among Democrats has [dropped from 30 percent down to 22 percent. In addition, his support among black voters has fallen sharply.](https://www.yahoo.com/news/bidens-support-black-voters-cut-101036549.html) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=80) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=82)