# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 88
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1741 "2019-07-07T16:48:15Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Excepting the ones that **you with the face** talks about: the low-information voters who will vote for the shiniest object. But as **ywtf** said, a candidate becomes that shiny object by being an unabashed change agent/disrupter. Right, and frankly I’m not understanding how this is not more obvious. If the goal is to attract Obama-Trumpers, then shouldn’t we be paying attention to what they say they like rather than what we _think_ they like? Mind you, I think it’s stupid to center an entire campaign around appealing to irrationals. But if that’s the plan, do it right. These people—the majority of whom _like_ Trump—don’t gravitate to anyone that looks mainstream or thinks moderation is a selling point. They like the rebels, the outsiders, the non-politicians. Obama was a centrist but he didn’t run on being a centrist. “Change” dominated his sloganeering. It was almost as if he knew what he was doing when he came up with that. A candidate that shakes things up will likely pull in more than a few Obama-Trumpers **and** the Dem voters who sat out in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1742 "2019-07-07T17:08:43Z")
[http://www.pollingreport.com/2020wh\_g.htm](http://www.pollingreport.com/2020wh_g.htm) The first general election poll after the debate and it could hardly be better for Biden. He beats Trump by ten points and everyone else is within the margin of error including significantly Bernie who has often polled well against Trump. I think these general election polls become steadily more useful as the primary rolls on and the non-Biden candidates become better known. This poll was taken at a time of widespread media praise for Harris and Warren and generally negative coverage for Biden and it’s significant that his relative position may have actually improved. I wonder if being attacked from the left is helping him. In any case if we continue seeing such polls over the next six months, it will be hard to deny that Biden is the best general election bet which is what I suspect the majority of Democrats care most about. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1743 "2019-07-07T17:09:00Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > The _NYT_ crunched the numbers after the 1992 campaign and found that Perot drew pretty evenly from both GHWB and Bubba. The only state in which he made a difference in the Electoral College was Maine, which Clinton won; but even had GHWB won the state, he still would have lost the election. Okay, didn’t know this (or perhaps I forgot it). ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1744 "2019-07-07T17:35:06Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Inspired by your post **you with the face** I looked back at the longer term trend for non-college educated white voters. Because it is very clear that if HRC did the same as Obama had done with them she’d have won handily. > > Were these white non-college educated voters going to Obama because they thought him as newshiny and/or a disruptor? I don’t think you understand my argument about who is and who isn’t drawn to new and shiny candidates, because this is the second time you’ve pointed to a random demographic group and argued that they aren’t into new and shiny change agents. It’s not all white people or even all non-college educated white voters who I believe have this fetish. It’s the Obama-Trump voters whom you seem to think hold the key to this election. Regarding non-college educated whites in 2004 vs 2008, Obama had to contend with racism in a way that Kerry didn’t. I mean, is this is even necessary to point out? He got himself into the White House by inspiring a historic level of minority turnout. He also rallied young white voters who are not as racially biased as their older stodgier counterparts. I don’t know if anyone has done this analysis, but I seriously doubt he would’ve won if he’d performed only as well as Kerry did among blacks, Latinos, and first-time voters. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1745 "2019-07-07T19:35:13Z")
I would love to see a quantitative study on the difference between people on Twitter regarding the Democratic Primary and the mindset of people on Facebook regarding the Democratic Primary. The two biggest social media platforms but with vastly different popular demographics. Twitter appears more young and progressive, Facebook more older and moderate. The power of Twitter is what erupted the segregationist saga where a reporter at the event could instantly parse what Biden within 280 characters, and out to thousands of people, while the full transcript would not posted until later. Twitter’s power is its instant communication. The power of Facebook however is it’s more secluded. Now this at first is a bit of a contradiction because on Facebook you post with your real name and a face to the name, whereas on Twitter you can go under handles as random as magagirl3170 and everyone can go under an online persona and with no real life connections. But that’s where it ends. Because unless you choose to lock your account, everyone is public, everyone can scan through your tweet history, your likes, your followers and followings. On Facebook magagirl3170 is Kathleen Henderson commenting on a CNN article. You can see her comment, you can get a gauge for what see supports and who she supports but you go onto her profile and it’s hidden only to family and friends. There is real life personality on facebook. Kathleen Henderson on twitter might be posting the most vile, abusive conspiracies but on facebook the likelihood is she washes it down because you don’t want your close ones to see that side of you. Where am I going with this — on twitter you’d struggle to find any Biden supporters. Yet he’s consistently led the polls months in advance of his announcement, and since his announcement. But go on facebook and the top comments on many of the same Biden articles met with derision over on twitter, and you’ll see several defences of Biden. I think if you want a clearer understanding of the democratic electorate, it is far closer to facebook than twitter. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1746 "2019-07-07T20:36:53Z")
A new poll shows that after the debate, Biden remains the only Democratic candidate favored with a comfortable lead over the gangster president in a hypothetical match-up, ten full percentage points. The debate did not hurt him, or at least not all that much if any. I’m a one-issue voter this time around. In the Hawaii primary, I am voting for whoever the polls show has the biggest chance to win the general election. No ifs, ands or buts. I would vote for Charles Manson, dead or alive, if that’s who it was. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1747 "2019-07-07T20:46:34Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > Right, and frankly I’m not understanding how this is not more obvious. If the goal is to attract Obama-Trumpers, then shouldn’t we be paying attention to what they say they like rather than what we _think_ they like?.. I agree completely. But I wouldn’t go by a few selected anecdotes to determine that. Or by some preconceptions that the data, as cited, contradicts. Let’s look at what they actually say according to some [real survey data](https://wthh.dataforprogress.org/exploring-vote-switchers-in-2018), this from YouGov Blue on behalf of Data for Progress. I’ve linked to this in some other threads before and it is fascinating stuff. The looked at the various combinations of vote switching or not between Romney/Obama, Clinton/Trump, and D/R in the 2018 mid-terms. So let’s look at what the Obama-Trump (O-T) voters SAY matters to them, and break that out between those who moved over to D in 2018 (who should be not too difficult to pick up) and those who stayed R then. By ideology. > [@](#): > > fully 42 percent of Obama-Trump voters who returned to the Democratic Party in 2018 identified as conservative, compared with 33 percent who identified as liberal. Fully 54 percent of Romney-Trump voters who defected to a Democratic candidate in 2018 identified as conservative or very conservative. By racial animus. O-T voters of both groups have less racial animus than those who have were Romney-Trump-R18 and those who went D18. R18 is the marker for higher racial animus with even Romney-Trump voters who went D in 18 being lower. They opine: > [@](#): > > On the one hand, these results do not clearly break in favor of one party’s rhetoric or the other: The mean racial animus scores of Obama-Trump-Dem 2018 voters and of Romney-Trump-Dem 2018 switchers are both above the mean value of loyal Democrats, and below the mean value of loyal Republicans. But the attitudes of voters are different from the behavior of our politicians: Trump is getting marginally more extreme on race, while Democrats have not changed their position much since 2016. As Trump’s party becomes increasingly reliant on white nationalism for votes and dollars, Democrats should increasingly view the persuadable middle as an opportunity, not a challenge, on questions of race. > > In many future elections, Democrats will need the votes of at least some reliable Republicans. The 2018 election cycle has shown that the current Republican obsession with racist appeals and white identity will not serve them well in the future. Between straight-Democratic and straight-Republican voters lies an array of party switchers who score lower on measures of racial animus than the GOP’s continued electoral fortunes require them to be. Issues. Very interesting here! O-T all score higher than Clinton voters on sexism scores. No shock. Trump voters of all sorts are more dismissive of claims of sexism.They were also all more fearful of demographic change and more supportive of stronger border security. This INCLUDES those who voted D in '18. O-T-D18 stand out though in a few ways. They are more _populist_ even than those who were O- That’s not newshiny or disruptive, it is more distrustful of experts and of the system. But it does support their distrust of someone who they consider part of the system, i.e. is “establishment”, and it DOES argue that an outsider candidate may appeal to them more. It also argues for the position that _whoever_ runs needs to paint Trump as the current establishment who promised to drain the swamp but instead has used the swamp as his personal waste dump. O-T-D18s are also in lockstep with Ds on automatic voter registration (with straight Rs standing out as the only ones actually against. O-T-R18s in between. Both O-T groups lean to ending cash bail. But D18 or not, if you didn’t vote for Clinton you want strong border security. Getting pegged as being for “open borders” would not be good. > [@](#): > > many voters who swung to Democrats in 2018 are to the right on the issue of border security. While straight Democratic voters oppose increasing border security, including “building a fence along part of the US border with Mexico” by a 66-7 margin, Obama-Trump voters who swung Democratic support increased border security by a 63-12 margin, up to a a 73-13 margin for Romney-Trump voters who swung Democratic in 2018. Calls to abolish ICE are suicide across the board. And tuition assistance is a winning issue with these voters. > [@](#): > > Our results suggest a clear partisan divide on the question of Federal tuition assistance. Our tuition item asked respondents to support or oppose a plan to raise taxes on high-income Americans to cover all college tuition costs and to cap the rise in tuition to the rate of inflation. Loyal Democratic voters supported this plan by a 72-8 margin, compared to 73-14 opposition by loyal Republican voters. > > In the middle, Obama-Trump voters who swung to Democrats in 2018 clearly supported such a plan, at an 82-11 margin. Romney-Trump voters who swung toward Democrats, by contrast, were split on the item by a 33-43 margin, which due to the small sample size is not statistically distinguishable from being a tie. And so are environmental issues, both Green New Deal and pollution fees. Gun control can motivate the base without losing these voters much, they end up pretty split even. O-T-D18s like the idea of Medicare for All as “the main health insurance provider for all Americans”. And legalizing marijuana and supporting a public internet utility “to fill coverage gaps in rural, urban, or remote areas that currently lack robust Internet access.” is a winning issue too. Yes, parsing out this granular from an online poll of only 3,215 respondents is to be taken with a grain of salt. But there are the items that GOP party line loses these people and ones in which the farther side of D Left loses them. Making the election about the items that lose them from the D side rather than the ones that they agree with the D side and fall out from the GOP line would be a stupid way to proceed. Minimally moving towards a Medicare style system that is the main provider for all is a winning item. Environmental issues are a winning item. An economic populist message addressing how the system is stacked against in favor of the very wealthiest can sell well (with emphasis on Trump’s worsening of it). Support of a public internet utility can be an attractor. A woman running who says or implies she should be elected because she is a woman would rub the wrong way. But I think a woman who runs as simply the best qualified and best leader would sell fine. And a plan dealing seriously with college affordability is a must for these voters and for the base both. On immigration all plans have to include addressing border security … in a fair and compassionate way. Non-college educated whites is an overlapping issue to O-T of course. But I think you are not comprehending some plainly written text: Obama in '08 actually did _marginally_ better with non-college educated whites than Kerry did. AND he won with a large minority turnout with an overwhelming share of that turnout. HRC in comparison only performed as well as Kerry in terms of minority turnout and share while performing much worse than Kerry or Obama '08 or even Obama '12 with the white non-college educated group. Not sure _anyone_ can match Obama’s minority turnout and share but I do think that others can do as not so poorly as he did, as Kerry did, and even as Gore did, with non-college educate white voters. Again, they don’t need to win the group, just not lose the group as badly as Clinton did. [A better map of where those Obama-Trump voters are concentrated](http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/just-how-many-obama-2012-trump-2016-voters-were-there/) btw. A red paintbrush of switched margins from Maine, through PA, OH, MI, WI, IA, (IL but still safe blue). The places that decided the last election with just a few votes. Anyway \*\*ywtf \*\*your original claim was [this](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21733562&postcount=1689) > [@ywtf](#): > > What helps gin up turnout is the view that a candidate bucks “the establishment”. That view transcends party lines. > > Trump ran on being anti-establishment. His supporters saw him as a candidate who would upset the apple cart but in a good way. Obama, by virtue of his background, also convinced voters he represented change. Being youthful, black, and personable gave him an aura of progressivism that complemented his moderate positions. In either case, Obama and Trump voters didn’t just contrast them with the opposing party; contrasts were made within parties too. > > Biden—just like like HRC, Kerry, and Gore—is an establishment candidate. Not only that only O-T voters want something that bucks the establishment. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1748 "2019-07-07T20:50:14Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > [WH 2020: General Election](http://www.pollingreport.com/2020wh_g.htm) > The first general election poll after the debate and it could hardly be better for Biden. He beats Trump by ten points and everyone else is within the margin of error including significantly Bernie who has often polled well against Trump. > > I think these general election polls become steadily more useful as the primary rolls on and the non-Biden candidates become better known. This poll was taken at a time of widespread media praise for Harris and Warren and generally negative coverage for Biden and it’s significant that his relative position may have actually improved. I wonder if being attacked from the left is helping him. In any case if we continue seeing such polls over the next six months, it will be hard to deny that Biden is the best general election bet which is what I suspect the majority of Democrats care most about. > [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > A new poll shows that after the debate, Biden remains the only Democratic candidate favored with a comfortable lead over the gangster president in a hypothetical match-up, ten full percentage points. The debate did not hurt him, or at least not all that much if any. > > I’m a one-issue voter this time around. In the Hawaii primary, I am voting for whoever the polls show has the biggest chance to win the general election. No ifs, ands or buts. I would vote for Charles Manson, dead or alive, if that’s who it was. Problem is the democratic primary is not a national poll of all voters or even a national poll. Selzer’s Iowa poll, due soon, will mean a lot more. If he is still solidly on top there, after his recent horrible news cycle, then he is pretty unstoppable. If it is neck and neck then it national polling or not he is in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1749 "2019-07-07T21:02:16Z")
Yadda yadda yadda. Whoever research shows has the biggest lead over Chump, I am voting for him or her in the Hawaii primary. Whoever becomes the actual Democratic nominee, I will vote for him or her. If they’re one and the same, fine. If not, fine. End of story. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1750 "2019-07-07T21:11:01Z")
Immigration, abortion, general boorishness, etc. Guess what? [Trump’s poll numbers show he’s more popular than ever.](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/451858-poll-trumps-approval-rating-hits-highest-point-of-presidency) ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1751 "2019-07-07T21:15:58Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > Immigration, abortion, general boorishness, etc. Guess what? > > [Trump’s poll numbers show he’s more popular than ever.](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/451858-poll-trumps-approval-rating-hits-highest-point-of-presidency) That’s like saying Francisco Franco’s popularity is at the highest. I have no doubt if the lazy puds who stayed home because they thought Clinton was the given winner understand their mistake and come out to vote next time around, then the current president will be history. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1752 "2019-07-07T21:28:08Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > Immigration, abortion, general boorishness, etc. Guess what? > > [Trump’s poll numbers show he’s more popular than ever.](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/451858-poll-trumps-approval-rating-hits-highest-point-of-presidency) > [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > That’s like saying Francisco Franco’s popularity is at the highest. I have no doubt if the lazy puds who stayed home because they thought Clinton was the given winner understand their mistake and come out to vote next time around, then the current president will be history. And it’s that same poll that shows Biden with a 10-point lead over the orange chimpanzee. That aspect is linked to at the end of your linked story, [but here it is](been to Nice and the isle of Greece While I sipped champagne on a yacht). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1753 "2019-07-07T21:29:30Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > Immigration, abortion, general boorishness, etc. Guess what? > > [Trump’s poll numbers show he’s more popular than ever.](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/451858-poll-trumps-approval-rating-hits-highest-point-of-presidency) That’s a single poll. Never go by a single poll. The aggregate shows he’s doing about the same as he usually has been – in the low 40s. > **[How Popular Is Donald Trump?](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo)** > > FiveThirtyEight is tracking Donald Trump’s approval ratings throughout his presidency. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1754 "2019-07-07T22:07:24Z")
Trump’s 538 tracker continues underwater in a historically fairly narrow range. If he breaks much closer than the 9 to 10 it’s running now it would be notable. It’s hit -9 a few times before but if it got over that, outside his initial quarter, I am missing it. Meanwhile [the actual poll](https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/washington-post-abc-news-poll-june-28-july-1-2019/23419a67-9e70-42e3-a96d-65d92555e29b/?utm_term=.3966948bd429)also shows some primary match ups. More are willing to say who they lean to now than their last poll on 4/25 and it is now, for RV with leaners, Biden +8 over Sanders with 26%, Sanders 16, Harris 11, Warren 10, and then the drop to Buttigieg at 3%. 17% still no opinion. Biden also leads as second choice but those top four are all clustered between 17 and 20% so not a big thing. He is _far_ on top as the one still thought to have the best chance of beating Trump. (Which does not mean that they do not others can also beat him.) Harris leads as having the performed the best in the debate. More meaningful than the national head to heads with Trump but still of only so much meaning. Waiting for Selzer with bated breath! ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2019, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1755 "2019-07-07T22:13:34Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > I have no doubt if the lazy puds who stayed home because they thought Clinton was the given winner understand their mistake and come out to vote next time around, then the current president will be history. > [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > And it’s that same poll that shows Biden with a 10-point lead over the orange chimpanzee. That aspect is linked to at the end of your linked story, [but here it is](been to Nice and the isle of Greece While I sipped champagne on a yacht). > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > That’s a single poll. Never go by a single poll. To quote Han Solo, “Great, kid. Don’t get cocky.” I live in a red state and am constantly exposed not only to people who think Trump is doing a great job, but people who support him _fanatically_. And I live in a Congressional district the Democrats think they can flip in 2020, and are ready to throw resources at. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1756 "2019-07-08T01:51:23Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Non-college educated whites is an overlapping issue to O-T of course. But I think you are not comprehending some plainly written text: Obama in '08 actually did _marginally_ better with non-college educated whites than Kerry did. Yes, and? I’m missing your point here. There is only so much meaning you can draw from slicing and dicing up demographic groups and looking at percentages before you start tripping over yourself. (Weren’t some of these non-college educated whites among also young voters who strongly favored Obama due to agressive outreach? [Of course they were](https://www.pewresearch.org/2008/11/13/young-voters-in-the-2008-election/).) If he did marginally better, equivalent, or even worse than Kerry did among non-college whites, none of this surprises me or gives me any “aha” moments. He was a highly effective campaigner who was a strong candidate all around, not _just_ a new and shiny guy. > [@](#): > > Anyway \*\*ywtf \*\*your original claim was [this](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21733562&postcount=1689)Not only that only O-T voters want something that bucks the establishment. To maximize Dem turnout, people need to feel enthusiastic about the candidate begging for their votes. Minorities in particular need to feel enthusiastic about them, because they are extra cynical and distrustful of politicians as a rule. A lot of them also are low information and not attuned to stuff outside of their sphere of control—a sensibility not uncommon among disproportionately poor and uneducated people. Voting doesn’t come easy if you don’t have your own transportation, you don’t know anything about absentee voting, you have a bunch of kids to look after, and/or you can’t just clock out and vote in the middle of your double shift. So if you’re going to go through all this inconvenience, you want to only do that for candidates that you actually feel something for. That make you sit up and pay attention to. The difference between these voters and Obama-Trumpers is that they are much more rational. They aren’t attracted to new and shiny disrupters. They are attracted to candidates that act as though they actually want to represent them. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1757 "2019-07-08T01:58:53Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > The difference between these voters and Obama-Trumpers is that they are much more rational. They aren’t attracted to new and shiny disrupters. They are attracted to candidates that act as though they actually want to represent them. And historically, this means “bucking the establishment”. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1758 "2019-07-08T03:30:22Z")
Hearing that Tom Steyer is throwing his hat into the ring. Don’t know yet which party, but this seemed like the thread to put it in until we know more (announcement is supposed to be Tuesday). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1759 "2019-07-08T04:17:57Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > Yes, and? I’m missing your point here. … Yes, you do seem to be. Not sure where we are crossing our wires. The point seems to me to be very straightforward: writing off the non-college educated white vote completely, accepting that HRC’s dismal performance with them is what has to be, because they went to Trump and are therefore … not very rational, or just racist, or only interested in newshiny or disruptive, or whatever the reason one wants to use, is simply put, stupid. Obama’s team was not stupid in this regard; HRC’s was. There is, in that Venn diagram, a space of messages that appeal to them _and_ to those more solidly in the tent that can be highlighted. The candidate’s team, the voters choosing which candidate, benefit by keeping that space, and messaging that they and their problems _also_ matter, in mind. Doing as badly as HRC did with that population reduces the paths to victory; doing at least close to the level other Democratic nominees have have done gives many more paths to a win. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2019, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1760 "2019-07-08T04:19:01Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Hearing that Tom Steyer is throwing his hat into the ring. Don’t know yet which party, but this seemed like the thread to put it in until we know more (announcement is supposed to be Tuesday). [From my Twitter feed:](https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1148081073760493568) [QUOTE=Robert Costa @costareports] Billionaire Tom Steyer has privately told friends & associates in recent days that he plans to enter the race for the Democratic nomination, according to two Democrats familiar with the discussions who were not authorized to speak publicly. First reported by @IsaacDovere. [/QUOTE] [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=87) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=89)