# Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2018, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415 "2018-11-12T17:52:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 99
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1961 "2019-07-24T15:00:23Z")
I would love to see Warren as President, and I think that she can probably beat Trump… but “probably” isn’t “certainly”, and I also think that the chance of her losing against him is higher than I’m comfortable with, and that other candidates would have a better chance. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1962 "2019-07-24T15:29:26Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > 😕 When I looked at those links, average favorable was Sanders -2.3, Warren -2, Harris -0.5 and Biden +5. Looks like you didn’t read my post, other than to grab a word here and there. I won’t pretend to be surprised. It’s not like you’ve never done this before. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1963 "2019-07-24T15:32:01Z")
Oh for god’s sake. Do you always have to come out flaming? Yes, I missed that you were only looking at the unfavorable numbers for some reason. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1964 "2019-07-24T15:33:43Z")
[Dafuq?!](https://twitter.com/Politicsinsider/status/1153832819778449409) > [@](#): > > Joe Biden says he didn’t think anyone thought Trump ‘would be as bad as he is’ during the 2016 presidential election Biden’s gonna be an awesomely bad candidate. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1965 "2019-07-24T15:42:13Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Oh for god’s sake. Do you always have to come out flaming? Yes, I missed that you were only looking at the unfavorable numbers And in such a lengthy post. Who can blame you? 😃 > [@](#): > > for some reason. LOL. Gave that too! You skipped past that **both** times you not-quite-read my post. Impressive! ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1966 "2019-07-24T16:42:34Z")
You don’t see what’s confusing about your post? Slacker was talking about approval ratings and you said Warren’s were better. Approval rating is favourable-unfavourables as I understand it. And now I realize that you are talking about unfavorable numbers only and assert that’s the important number. I honestly don’t get why. No reason to assume the ratio won’t stay the same as more people switch out of the “never heard of her” category. Could you just pretend that I’m not trying to twist your argument around or something? Because I’m honestly not. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1967 "2019-07-24T17:02:07Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You don’t see what’s confusing about your post? Slacker was talking about approval ratings and you said Warren’s were better. Well sure, if you stop reading right there. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: > [@](#): > > Could you just pretend that I’m not trying to twist your argument around or something? Because I’m honestly not. I’m not pretending that you’re twisting anything. I’m just pointing out that you don’t bother to read enough of a \<85 word post to understand it before you reply. _Twice._ With the same post. And yes, this is a recurring phenomenon with you. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1968 "2019-07-24T17:14:53Z")
Here’s the reasoning I see you made: "At this point in the game, the potential problem is the people who already dislike a candidate. You’re not going to change many of their minds. Many voters haven’t thought about this much; they can be persuaded. " That’s nothing but an assertion. You have not said why we should agree with it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1969 "2019-07-24T17:53:02Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Here’s the reasoning I see you made: "At this point in the game, the potential problem is the people who already dislike a candidate. You’re not going to change many of their minds. Many voters haven’t thought about this much; they can be persuaded. " That’s nothing but an assertion. You have not said why we should agree with it. You’re kidding, right? ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [July 24, 2019, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1970 "2019-07-24T18:09:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Those specific arguments don’t hold much water. > > Yes it is less progressive and more moderate/centrist than many think and that may be significant but the partisan lean D/R as determined by past election results is still what it is (whichever method is decided on). Election results for Senate (and president) are generally a foregone conclusion in your state. Turnout in 2018 was [NOT](https://www.masslive.com/politics/2018/11/final_2018_midterm_voter_turno.html) consistent with that not bothering hypothesis. > > Voters came out and voted. Just not as much for her as would have been expected if she was just a generic Democrat in that state. She got many fewer votes than did Galvin, or Healey, or even the Republican Baker Can’t argue with that, you’re dead right. My turnout hypothesis “turned out” to be nonsense 🙂 > [@DSeid](#): > > other candidates who have ending up with the nom or even perform well usually rock it in their home state early on … (see Sanders for the latter in the 2016 cycle). Not sure it’s really useful to compare the previous election to this one on that point, though, given the HUGE field of choices this time. I suspect, for example (though I don’t know where to look), that Sanders was polling much higher in Vermont at this stage in the previous election than he is right now in this election. Would that mean his support in VT has eroded? Maybe, maybe not, but it could just be that people have many more choices in such a large field. But if it whittles down to Sanders, Biden and Harris then they would “come home,” as it were. The same might be true of Warren in MA. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1971 "2019-07-25T00:09:02Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Not sure it’s really useful to compare the previous election to this one on that point, though, given the HUGE field of choices this time. I suspect, for example (though I don’t know where to look), that Sanders was polling much higher in Vermont at this stage in the previous election than he is right now in this election. Would that mean his support in VT has eroded? Maybe, maybe not, but it could just be that people have many more choices in such a large field. But if it whittles down to Sanders, Biden and Harris then they would “come home,” as it were. The same might be true of Warren in MA. But even in this election with this big slate of candidates, Warren is the only top runner who needs this excuse. Frigging Buttigieg is polling at 20% in Indiana. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1972 "2019-07-25T00:10:45Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Didn’t think of using individual candidates’ names. > Probably went with something like "Democratic candidates approval ratings."No, they’re BETTER, except for Harris. > > At this point in the game, the potential problem is the people who **already dislike** a candidate. You’re not going to change many of their minds. Many voters haven’t thought about this much; they can be persuaded. > > Sanders and Biden have the worst ‘unfavorable’ numbers of the four. There’s your problem candidates, particularly Sanders. But he’s not going to win the nom anyway. Wait. Are you _really_ trying to argue that the lowest unfavorable equals the best candidate? That favorability and how much above or under water are less important? Really? Woo hoo! DSeid is a better candidate than any of 'em! I’d get zero everything in every poll! Although I am pretty sure that Hickenlooper, Yang, and Bullock are pretty thrilled with their lower numbers too! One can rationally argue that the margin of favorable to unfavorable should be adjusted by how much room for growth they have. But taking the position that someone who is well known having positive favorable to unfavorable with large numbers of each (Biden) is worse off than someone who is less known with smaller numbers of each but who has more people thinking unfavorable of them favorable (Harris), is completely cray cray. One would only read someone arguing that if they thought the poster was insane. Be complimented that it was misread! ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1973 "2019-07-25T00:13:27Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > [Dafuq?!](https://twitter.com/Politicsinsider/status/1153832819778449409)Biden’s gonna be an awesomely bad candidate. In point of fact basic psychology is that you want to give those who regret their choice a self face saving way to justify their past bad choice and a welcome to the better choice without negative judgement. Doing otherwise would be being an awesomely horrible candidate and dumb politician. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1974 "2019-07-25T00:15:11Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > In point of fact basic psychology is that you want to give those who regret their choice a self face saving way to justify their past bad choice and a welcome to the better choice without negative judgement. > > Doing otherwise would be being an awesomely horrible candidate and dumb politician. No shit. Anyone who would “dafuq?” that doesn’t know much about human nature. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1975 "2019-07-25T00:19:44Z")
> [@ShadowFacts](#): > > Can’t argue with that, you’re dead right. My turnout hypothesis “turned out” to be nonsense 🙂 > > Not sure it’s really useful to compare the previous election to this one on that point, though, given the HUGE field of choices this time. I suspect, for example (though I don’t know where to look), that Sanders was polling much higher in Vermont at this stage in the previous election than he is right now in this election. Would that mean his support in VT has eroded? Maybe, maybe not, but it could just be that people have many more choices in such a large field. But if it whittles down to Sanders, Biden and Harris then they would “come home,” as it were. The same might be true of Warren in MA. I do still take the state data with a big grain of salt. It is a warning light sure, but not an engine overheating one, more like due for 20K service check. I just don’t think MA is a great test kitchen for where the voters are nationally or even for the early state primaries. I believe MA has a much stronger taste for establishment status quo politician than otherwise applies. But it is a _real_ signal even if I argue against its level of significance. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1976 "2019-07-25T01:10:24Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Wait. Are you _really_ trying to argue that the lowest unfavorable equals the best candidate? That favorability and how much above or under water are less important? Really? At this early point in the game, yes. Look at those polls and see how large the ‘don’t know’ group is. > [@](#): > > Woo hoo! DSeid is a better candidate than any of 'em! I’d get zero everything in every poll! Although I am pretty sure that Hickenlooper, Yang, and Bullock are pretty thrilled with their lower numbers too! Actually, YEAH. They’re not handicapped by a lot of people having made up their minds to vote against them in the general election. But they have the same problem as you: _getting there_. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1977 "2019-07-25T01:57:01Z")
That’s not a completely crazy thought, maybe a little more optimistic driven than realistic. But even if you think that, how can you possibly be so confident that I get a “are you kidding?” when I question it? Do you have some notable candidates who took advantage of this "low unfavorability because there’s more people with no opinion " situation? ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1978 "2019-07-25T02:11:01Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > In point of fact basic psychology is that you want to give those who regret their choice a self face saving way to justify their past bad choice and a welcome to the better choice without negative judgement. > > Doing otherwise would be being an awesomely horrible candidate and dumb politician. Biden’s error is that he isn’t running against Trump right now; he’s running to be the face of the party. You know, the party full of people who knew that Trump was going to be a clusterfuck. Why is he is trying so hard to mollify Trump voters right now? He should be convincing Trump _opponents_ why he’s the most qualify to fight him. It’s like a general saying no one knew going into Iraq would be the mess it was, even though Ray Charles could’ve seen all the red flags. What kind of general would say something like that? Not one who has any foresight, that’s who. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1979 "2019-07-25T03:52:39Z")
Biden’s sales pitch is the perception that he is the best to beat Trump. Behaving as if that is already progress, allowing primary voters to picture him doing it, is marketing that perception. It also allows people to perceive him as someone who will try to reunify some of the country … and many voters want to see that attempt made even knowing what the GOP is. Some don’t. Some prefer a more bellicose approach. And there are several running who offer that. But not Biden. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2019, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415/1980 "2019-07-25T04:09:38Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > Biden’s error is that he isn’t running against Trump right now; he’s running to be the face of the party. You know, the party full of people who knew that Trump was going to be a clusterfuck. Why is he is trying so hard to mollify Trump voters right now? He should be convincing Trump _opponents_ why he’s the most qualify to fight him. I don’t think he’s trying to mollify Trump voters; he’s trying to be more appealing to those who are in the center, and some of whom might have voted for Trump. The fact is that the way to get Trump out of office isn’t from the fringe left; it’s from the center. The far right is bigger and more powerful than the far left; the center is where most people in this country are. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=98) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hee-haw-yall-the-2020-democratic-presidential-primary/824415.md?page=100)