# Help me bet on bowl games. **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 15, 2011, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301 "2011-12-15T15:25:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/1 "2011-12-15T15:25:50Z")
Here’s the situation: Every year the wife and I take a trip to Vegas during December. I usually throw $20 away on a parlay card on the various bowl games. What the hell - it’s only $20, and if I get 8 for 8 it pays 1000 to 1. Small problem - I haven’t watched a college football game in over a decade. So my choices are pretty much random guesses and very out-dated memories of programs. Or I bet schools that my debaters go to. Not very “scientific.” Anybody out there in Doperland want to expound on who I should pick over who and at what spread? I trust you guys more than the pundits, and I’m really too lazy to do much research for a lark bet. If I win I promise to track down whoever gave me the “best” information and give them a hearty handshake. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/2 "2011-12-15T15:39:45Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > If I win I promise to track down whoever gave me the “best” information and give them a hearty handshake. 😛 With any luck, it’ll be **ZPG Zealot**. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/3 "2011-12-15T15:53:13Z")
IMO, a lot of the “dead money” will be wagered on SEC teams. The bookies will be over-valuing those teams this bowl season because they know novices will want to bet on those teams. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/4 "2011-12-15T17:47:57Z")
The Alamo Bowl between Baylor and Washington looks interesting. Surprised that Baylor’s only a 9 point favorite, what with the Heisman winner and after having beaten Oklahoma and Texas. I am perplexed by the opening New Mexico Bowl, between Temple and Wyoming. Wyoming’s been there before, and is used to playing at altitude. However, they are horrendous against the run and Temple has one of the better rushing attacks in the NCAA. Wyoming’s getting 7. So much of college bowl performance depends on which team better weathers the distractions and time off. That said, I like TCU to cover the 10.5 versus Louisiana Tech in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. I am surprised that Boise is only favored by 14 over Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Admittedly, while ASU is a 6-6 team, they generally haven’t been blown out, losing by 14 to Oregon in Eugene. You’d think that Air Force would be fired up for a Military Bowl in D.C. against Toledo. AFA is getting 3. They lost to Boise by 11 in Boise, while Toledo got rolled by 25 at home by Boise. I have a “feeling” about Iowa State, though they are 6-6, against Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium (?!) They are getting 2, and of course, they did upset Oklahoma State and Texas Tech (in Lubbock.) Rutgers got rolled by UConn by 18 at the end of season, whereas Iowa State beat U Conn by 4 on the road near the beginning of the season. I’d be happier about picking Iowa State if they hadn’t been crushed by OU in Norman and lost to K. State in Manhattan to close out the season. One of your picks must be Penn State +6 versus Houston, even though the game’s played at the Cotton Bowl. Penn State has lost by 3 to Nebraska, 16 to Alabama, and of course the 38 point demolition by Wisky. The point being that they generally don’t lose to mediocre teams by much. UH is not going to be able to manhandle Penn State the way Wisky did, and I think Penn State’s defense can cope with Case Keenum and his speedy wideouts. Heck, even if Penn State were laying 6, I’d take them. ---
**Author:** ![Bootis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e8c25b/32.png) [@Bootis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootis)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/5 "2011-12-15T18:25:35Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > What the hell - it’s only $20, and if I get 8 for 8 it pays 1000 to 1. Wow- since there are only 256 possible betting combinations in an 8 game parlay that pays 1000 to 1,the best advice is to bet on every one- you can’t lose! ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/6 "2011-12-15T19:02:24Z")
My picks are in bold. Capital One Bowl Orlando, Fla. **Nebraska +1** South Carolina -1 BBVA Compass Bowl Birmingham, Ala. **SMU +5.5** Pittsburgh -5.5 Maaco Las Vegas Bowl Las Vegas, Nev. Arizona State +13 **Boise State -13** Rose Bowl presented by Vizio Pasadena, Calif. **Wisconsin +5.5** Oregon -5.5 Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas Houston, Tx. Texas A&M -9.5 **Northwestern +9.5** Valero Alamo Bowl San Antonio, Tx. Washington +9 **Baylor -9** [Texaslayer.com](http://Texaslayer.com) Gator Bowl Jacksonville, Fla. Florida -1.5 **Ohio State +1.5** Hyundai Sun Bowl El Paso, Tx. Utah +3 **Georgia Tech -3** ---
**Author:** ![mcgato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@mcgato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mcgato)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/7 "2011-12-15T21:02:45Z")
I’ve noticed that Heisman trophy winners usually have mediocre to bad bowl games, so I would not be very high on Baylor. I’ve also noticed that coaches leaving tends to lead to subpar performances, so I might bet against Houston. ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/8 "2011-12-15T21:20:16Z")
> [@Bootis](#): > > Wow- since there are only 256 possible betting combinations in an 8 game parlay that pays 1000 to 1,the best advice is to bet on every one- you can’t lose! Good point, when I first read the OP, I thought it paid 50/1 ($1000 on $20 bet). And then the 1000/1 had to be a typo of some sort. [This site](http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/) says Vegas pays 150/1 on 8 team parlay. which sounds about right to me. ~40% Vig ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/9 "2011-12-15T21:46:58Z")
My bad. I’m thinking it may be the 11 for 11 Teaser card that has that high a payout. Really tweaking the spreads to do so, of course. I’m running from year-old memories here! ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/10 "2011-12-15T22:06:54Z")
**silenus** , even if you decide not to play with us in the Pick’em you might find some guidance in the posts at [Oak’s Bowl Pick’em 2011](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=633657) and might even use the minimal logic displayed in [this post of mine.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14535853&postcount=12) It’s free and fun – if you like that sort of thing. ---
**Author:** ![dzero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5f9b8f/32.png) [@dzero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dzero)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2011, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/11 "2011-12-15T23:32:24Z")
> [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](#): > > My picks are in bold. Let’s say hypothetically that I had $96.86 (in Monopoly money) to bet and I had to pick just one game to bet on. Which would you recommend. Hypothetically. 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2011, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/12 "2011-12-16T02:23:13Z")
> [@dzero](#): > > Let’s say hypothetically that I had $96.86 (in Monopoly money) to bet and I had to pick just one game to bet on. Which would you recommend. Hypothetically. 🆒 Boise St ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2011, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/13 "2011-12-16T02:46:15Z")
> [@dzero](#): > > Let’s say hypothetically that I had $96.86 (in Monopoly money) to bet and I had to pick just one game to bet on. Which would you recommend. Hypothetically. 🆒 > [@notfrommensa](#): > > Boise St Hard to argue with this. If you’ll click on that link in Post #10 and look at the chart of compared Sagarin rankings, any of the ones where the difference is greater than 30 ought to favor the team with the lower ranking. Boise’s body of work has it in that crowd (almost: 28 = 36 - 8) and the only other one I feel really good about is Texas A&M. ---
**Author:** ![dzero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/5f9b8f/32.png) [@dzero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dzero)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2011, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-bet-on-bowl-games/606301/14 "2011-12-16T02:59:04Z")
> [@notfrommensa](#): > > Boise St > [@Zeldar](#): > > Hard to argue with this. If you’ll click on that link in Post #10 and look at the chart of compared Sagarin rankings, any of the ones where the difference is greater than 30 ought to favor the team with the lower ranking. Boise’s body of work has it in that crowd (almost: 28 = 36 - 8) and the only other one I feel really good about is Texas A&M. Thank you kind sirs. 🙂 🙂