raises hand, cautiously I worked for six years in pharmaceutical research, on the drug trial side. . Some high level industry guidance first. I’ll get to the paper the researchers published in just a wee minute.
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Would 96% prevention be considered acceptable in the long run? If this is an early enough phase trial, it might be considered acceptable enough to run further trials. It does sound less than ideal for a solution a company would take to market. This is University study, so I would think it would be promising enough to pursue.
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How many of the side effects were minor versus severe? In general terms in research trials, everything is tracked, related or not. Minor examples might be - headache, acne, mild mood changes, colds vivid dreams. Severe - suicidal thoughts, heart attack or stroke and so on.
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Were the side effects so bothersome that the subjects stopped taking the drug? If they won’t take it, it may not matter if it’s a wonder drug. It doesn’t really matter whether outside observers would have the same experience if they took the drug, or thinks that someone should have toughed it out. If you read the medical literature you get with your prescriptions, you’ll often find a sentence or two in the area where they talk about side effects that says something to the effect of, “most patients were not bothered enough by these side effects to stop taking this medication.” (Or X% of patients were bothered enough by…) It is something that is tracked.
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A company (and the FDA, or other regulatory body) then weighs all of these points (and mounds of safety and efficacy data) against the “importance” of the medical condition being addressed. For example, pregnancy can be prevented other ways. The threshold may well be lower in terms of when to pull the plug. Cancer OTOH causes death, and some kinds have few effective treatments. Nasty side effects are commonly expected and accepted by patients, because the alternative is worse.
IOW, the FDA may well allow side effects in some drugs that they will not allow in others. Drug companies may consider the amount of drop out too high to continue.
Now, looking at this study Cite, there are some interesting things. They’ve found a method that lowers sperm count and is reversible. This is actually a large step forward. They had 320 participants, which is a large study. It was planned to run for close to 2 years. 20 participants left early, but that is not why the study was ended. The study was actually terminated early because the University Safety Review Board reviewed the Adverse Event data (side effects I mentioned earlier) and determined it was in the subjects’ best interest to stop the study. Their primary concerns were:
There is a large table in the report if anyone really wants to dig through it. Table 2. Looking at it, there were a total of 8 severe Adverse Events (1 acne, 1 injection site pain, 3 libido increased, 2 depression, 1 irritability). Consider 320 men getting shots weekly for about 18 months, that’s not bad. The numbers in moderate adverse events are higher, but follow roughly the same categories. Under mild, we see big jumps in the numbers for acne and increased libido. Again, though, at this point the subjects are saying these side effects are mild in this category.
Looking at what is presented, I don’t know why they pulled it. My only thought is that based on my experience University Review Boards are extremely conservative.
I strongly suspect that a drug company will start with this, tinker with the “blend”, see if they can get better results on the prevention side, and take this to trial on the “commercial” side of the industry.
Finally, I want to be clear that in clinical trials, one collects data on a lot of things. It would not be fair to characterize these men as whining or unable to deal. To the contrary, the vast majority stuck with the study, and did their job by accurately reporting their experiences. I would say the culprit is the media, who looked at the data and did not understand what they were seeing, or make any effort to report it accurately.