# Help me win my NFL survivor pool **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 23, 2013, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032 "2013-12-23T20:25:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/1 "2013-12-23T20:25:00Z")
Hey SDMB football experts. I am one week away from winning my sruvivor pool. It’s down to me and one other guy, and I have the advantage, in that if we both win or lose next week, I win. Unfortunately at this point I’ve used most of the good teams in the league. Here is what I have left: Arizona Atlanta Buffalo Cleveland Detroit Houston Jacksonville Miami Minnesota New York G New york J Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh Tampa Bay Washington I am thinking of picking the steelers over the Browns, but not completely sold. Other possibilities include Dolphins over Jets (But Miami was miserable yesterday, and Tannehill was hurt.) Titans over Texans (But Tenn just isn’t that good, Houston might come back for a victory to make their season less miserable. Also, Tenn gave me my one strike when they got beat by the Jaguars.) Lions over Vikings Giants over Redskins. (Redskins almost beat Cowboys. Cousins seems to be brining fresh life to the franchise) Philly over Dallas (Dallas not horrible) So what do you think. If you had to pick one of these as the closest to a sure thing what would it be? I know a lot of you know a lot more about football than I do, which is why I rarely post to the NFL threads, but I do read them. Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/2 "2013-12-23T21:02:20Z")
Is the other guy likely to take a team you won’t be able to take? ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/3 "2013-12-23T21:09:27Z")
[List](http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/) of current Vegas lines for Week 17. Yeah, yeah; not an actual prediction of how the game will go, just trying to even up the money on both sides of the wager, but still. From your list, it looks like Pittsburgh -7 (started at -6), Tennessee -7 (ditto, and the Texans are something ridiculous like 2-13 against the spread this year.), and Miami -6.5 are the ones to choose from. Me? I’d lean to Pittsburgh. Especially if the game’s at Heinz. I know that divisional games can get wonky, but that’s who I’d pick. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/4 "2013-12-23T21:12:48Z")
> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#): > > Is the other guy likely to take a team you won’t be able to take? It’s possible, but unlikely. The two teams he has that I can’t pick are Chicago and San Diego, and both those games are pretty tough. Still it would be a disaster (for him) if we both pick the same team, since then I automatically win. So he will probably think about it. As you almost certainly already know, we can’t see who the other guy picked until it’s too late to change. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/5 "2013-12-23T21:20:31Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > [List](http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/) of current Vegas lines for Week 17. Yeah, yeah; not an actual prediction of how the game will go, just trying to even up the money on both sides of the wager, but still. > > From your list, it looks like Pittsburgh -7 (started at -6), Tennessee -7 (ditto, and the Texans are something ridiculous like 2-13 against the spread this year.), and Miami -6.5 are the ones to choose from. > > Me? I’d lean to Pittsburgh. Especially if the game’s at Heinz. I know that divisional games can get wonky, but that’s who I’d pick. Thanks for the link. That’s what I’m thinking. My original plan was to go with Miami, but their abysmal performance Sunday scared me off that. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/6 "2013-12-23T21:20:45Z")
What’s the tie-breaker in a survivor league? ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/7 "2013-12-23T21:23:11Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > What’s the tie-breaker in a survivor league? If it was a real tie, then we would just tie, but that’s impossible at this point. ETA: He has two strikes, I have one. If we both lose we are both out, but I win because of fewer strikes. (After week fourteen there are no more strikes, you lose, you’re out.) If we both win, I win the pool on strikes. If I lose and he wins, I’m out, he is sole survivor. If I win and he loses, I am sole survivor. ---
**Author:** ![WreckingCrew](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wreckingcrew/32/4080_2.png) [@WreckingCrew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WreckingCrew)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/8 "2013-12-23T22:17:11Z")
This could help you - looks like Romo is out. > **[NFL National Football League News, Expert Analysis, Rumors, Live Updates,...](https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news/)** > > Sports News, Scores, Fantasy Games ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/9 "2013-12-23T22:30:12Z")
> [@WreckingCrew](#): > > This could help you - looks like Romo is out. > > [NFL News, Expert Analysis, Rumors, Live Updates, & more - Yahoo Sports](http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/dallas-cowboys-quarterback-tony-romo-done-season-back-213457853--nfl.html) It looks like Philly isn’t out of the woods, playoff wise, so they will be playing their starters. And boy did they look good yesterday. HMMM… ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/10 "2013-12-23T22:32:51Z")
That definitely suggests going with Philly, but unfortunately for you the Cowboys have maybe the best backup QB in the league, assuming he hasn’t atrophied on the bench. So, still not a slam dunk. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [December 23, 2013, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/11 "2013-12-23T22:43:29Z")
The Steelers are still playing for their faint playoff hopes and have been a better team this latter part of the season than they were in the first half, so I’d go with them over the Browns. Although as noted, divisional games are wonky and the Browns seem to win games they shouldn’t late in meaningless seasons that hurt their draft slot, so I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2013, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/12 "2013-12-24T17:43:23Z")
Thanks guys. Right now, I’m going with Pittsburgh, but still thinking about Philly. I’m basically 58% Pitt, 38% Philly, 4% every other option. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2013, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/13 "2013-12-24T17:55:59Z")
Arizona just beat Seattle in Seattle and they still have a chance at a playoff spot if Tampa Bay beats New Orleans. That game will be going on at the same time. I’d pick Arizona to beat San Francisco, it’s a Cards home game. Unless New Orleans completely blows Tampa out early, the Cards will be playing starters down to the last play. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2013, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/14 "2013-12-24T19:18:01Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Arizona just beat Seattle in Seattle and they still have a chance at a playoff spot if Tampa Bay beats New Orleans. That game will be going on at the same time. I’d pick Arizona to beat San Francisco, it’s a Cards home game. Unless New Orleans completely blows Tampa out early, the Cards will be playing starters down to the last play. Someone else advised me to do that, but it’s too bold for my blood. I’ve survived the whole season picking the obvious pick. Ain’t gonna stop now. ---
**Author:** ![Fleetwood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fleetwood/32/271_2.png) [@Fleetwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fleetwood)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2013, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/15 "2013-12-24T20:05:15Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > [List](http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/) of current Vegas lines for Week 17. Yeah, yeah; not an actual prediction of how the game will go, just trying to even up the money on both sides of the wager, but still. > > From your list, it looks like Pittsburgh -7 (started at -6), Tennessee -7 **(ditto, and the Texans are something ridiculous like 2-13 against the spread this year.)**, and Miami -6.5 are the ones to choose from. > > Me? I’d lean to Pittsburgh. Especially if the game’s at Heinz. I know that divisional games can get wonky, but that’s who I’d pick. The Texans are 2-13 in actual game results, forget about the spread. 😛 I would take the Giants over the Redskins. ---
**Author:** ![MadTheSwine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MadTheSwine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MadTheSwine)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2013, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/16 "2013-12-24T20:28:37Z")
I would pick Philly ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2013, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/17 "2013-12-24T20:29:05Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Arizona just beat Seattle in Seattle and they still have a chance at a playoff spot if Tampa Bay beats New Orleans. That game will be going on at the same time. I’d pick Arizona to beat San Francisco, it’s a Cards home game. Unless New Orleans completely blows Tampa out early, the Cards will be playing starters down to the last play. And the 49ers won’t, considering that a 49ers win and a Seahawks loss gives the 49ers not only the NFC West title, but a first-round bye? ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 24, 2013, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/18 "2013-12-24T20:38:39Z")
> [@Fleetwood](#): > > The Texans are 2-13 in actual game results, forget about the spread. 😛 > > I would take the Giants over the Redskins. Cousins is not looking bad, and the Redskins defense stepped up against Dallas. > [@MadTheSwine](#): > > I would pick Philly They are definitely still on the table. ---
**Author:** ![Fleetwood](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fleetwood/32/271_2.png) [@Fleetwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fleetwood)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2013, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/19 "2013-12-25T18:28:29Z")
> [@Larry\_Borgia](#): > > Cousins is not looking bad, and the Redskins defense stepped up against Dallas. Good point. Year in and year out it seems that the NFC East is hardest to pick winners. Favorites often get beat. I think the Giants are going to send Coughlin out with a win. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2013, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032/20 "2013-12-25T19:13:58Z")
> [@Fleetwood](#): > > Good point. Year in and year out it seems that the NFC East is hardest to pick winners. Favorites often get beat. I think the Giants are going to send Coughlin out with a win. This is what makes me leery of picking Philly, even though they will probably win. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/help-me-win-my-nfl-survivor-pool/677032.md?page=2)