# Here it is...the October surprise. **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [July 18, 2004, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643 "2004-07-18T00:51:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Reeder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Reeder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reeder)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/1 "2004-07-18T00:51:41Z")
[http://scoop.agonist.org/story/2004/7/16/1870/82806](http://scoop.agonist.org/story/2004/7/16/1870/82806) > [@](#): > > Moscow and Washington are quietly negotiating a request by the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, Russian government sources tell Stratfor. The talks are intense, our contacts close to the U.S. State Department say, and the timing is not insignificant. A Russian troop lift to either country before the U.S. presidential election would give U.S. President George W. Bush a powerful boost in the campaign. As many as 40k troops. Why would Putin put his troops on the line in Iraq given he was so against it? I know why. We will pay out the ass for it. Is this an attempt to save Bushco asses? Will it work? How will the hardliners take it? Notice the statement…“The size of the contigent is significant as well, leaving room for the United States to act more pro-actively in the region” Means no troops will come home. Iran anyone? ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Negative](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/typo_negative/32/484_2.png) [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/2 "2004-07-18T00:56:32Z")
The Agonist? ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/3 "2004-07-18T00:59:48Z")
**Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan** :eek: :eek: :eek: Someone jog my memory. Weren’t Russian troops in Afghanisatan once before? Didn’t the Russian troops in Afghanistan foment the networking of militants? Didn’t the U.S. government support Osama bin Laden and his buddies to get the Russians OUT of Afghanisatan? My god, we are so fucked. ---
**Author:** ![Reeder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c6cbf5/32.png) [@Reeder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reeder)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/4 "2004-07-18T01:00:31Z")
> [@spooje](#): > > The Agonist? The source of the story. [http://www.stratfor.com/coms2/page\_home?referid=1290](http://www.stratfor.com/coms2/page_home?referid=1290) ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/5 "2004-07-18T01:38:02Z")
> [@](#): > > Moscow and Washington are quietly negotiating a request by the Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall, **Russian government sources** tell Stratfor. \*note–bolding mine–sc So far, you have a story that is only based on Russian sources. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t have legs. Come back when it does. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/6 "2004-07-18T01:42:18Z")
Never happen. Not a chance. I have spoken. Carry on. ---
**Author:** ![JonScribe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/3be4f8/32.png) [@JonScribe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JonScribe)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/7 "2004-07-18T02:01:00Z")
I realize George has been trying to bring back Ronnie’s glory days of the '80s, but ain’t this taking things a bit too far? ---
**Author:** ![E72521](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dbc845/32.png) [@E72521](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E72521)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/8 "2004-07-18T02:09:11Z")
It would be like sending US forces back into Viet Nam. It could actually be the catalyst that starts WWIII. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/9 "2004-07-18T02:14:25Z")
Against who? Belgium? ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/10 "2004-07-18T02:48:09Z")
> [@Reeder](#): > > Notice the statement…“The size of the contigent is significant as well, leaving room for the United States to act more pro-actively in the region” > Means no troops will come home. > > Iran anyone? [Funny you should mention that…](http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,664967,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![vanilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/f19dbf/32.png) [@vanilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vanilla)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/11 "2004-07-18T02:53:14Z")
the “October surprise” was originally meant as the “deal” to not release hostages to influence an election. Would this really oinfluence the election?What is in it for us? For Russia? I’m just figuring the admin will rig the voting is all myself. ---
**Author:** ![Stuffy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f17d59/32.png) [@Stuffy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stuffy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/12 "2004-07-18T03:55:32Z")
I can’t see Russian troops in either thea… thea… place not making things worse. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/13 "2004-07-18T04:16:23Z")
40,000 Russian troops in Afghanistan would unite the Afghanis _against_ the U.S., NATO, or whoever and even Wolfowitz can’t be so myopic as to miss that. 40,000 Russian troops in Iraq would do nothing to alllow enough U.S. troops to be re-assigned to invade Iran, so there is no great dark plot, there. I do not see any of the undecided voters in the U.S. hearing of a commitment of Russian troops to Iraq suddenly saying to themselves, “Oh! Now I simply _must_ vote for Bush.” It is entirely possible that Putin has reached some sort of agreement with Bush to exchange Russian mercenaries for cash, but that hardly counts as some sort of election-tipping skulduggery. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/14 "2004-07-18T04:40:00Z")
If the Russians were to provide troops, we’d have to pay for them anyway! The Russians are broke on their buttskis, the Chechens are bleeding them white, they got diddly and wish they had squat. Probably this is a rumor, based mostly on the Russian’s nostalgic memory for when they counted for something. ---
**Author:** ![Weirddave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/919ad9/32.png) [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/15 "2004-07-18T17:03:27Z")
> [@E72521](#): > > It could actually be the catalyst that starts WWIII. I don’t know why I bother, but “huh?” :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/16 "2004-07-18T17:45:39Z")
Yeah, that was my thought. Who the hell is going to _fight_ WWIII. The Russians are out…the Chinese don’t want to. What are the Afghani’s gonna use, man? Harsh language? And I would be ASTONISHED if a significant Russian troop presence ended up in Afghanistan again. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2004, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/17 "2004-07-18T18:43:04Z")
Meh. Frankly I’m more worried about the [July Surprise](http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040719&s=aaj071904) at the moment. > [@](#): > > …[A]n official who works under ISI’s director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis “have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must.” What’s more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: “The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq’s] meetings in Washington.” Says McCormack: “I’m aware of no such comment.” But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that “it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July”–the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston. HVTs are “high-value targets” – Osama bin Laden or other high-level terrorist leaders. International diplomacy at its finest. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/18 "2004-07-19T00:25:28Z")
> [@Reeder](#): > > [http://scoop.agonist.org/story/2004/7/16/1870/82806](http://scoop.agonist.org/story/2004/7/16/1870/82806) > > As many as 40k troops. > > Why would Putin put his troops on the line in Iraq given he was so against it? > > I know why. We will pay out the ass for it. > > Is this an attempt to save Bushco asses? > > Will it work? > > How will the hardliners take it? > > Notice the statement…“The size of the contigent is significant as well, leaving room for the United States to act more pro-actively in the region” > Means no troops will come home. > > Iran anyone? Are they stupid or something? Russian Troops back in Afghanistan? Just wait for the dynamite to explode, this would destroy much credibility in the eyes of the people that we’re not oppressors. As for them to be in Iraq? I reckon they would be more likely than the U.S troops to be too heavy handed, plus with the bad state of the Russian Army after the breakup of the USSR, I seriously doubt its military effectiveness in other than being able to secure food depots. ---
**Author:** ![if6was9](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e47c2d/32.png) [@if6was9](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/if6was9)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/19 "2004-07-19T01:15:51Z")
> [@Reeder](#): > > Is this an attempt to save Bushco asses? Ya think? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![DAVEW0071](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e19b73/32.png) [@DAVEW0071](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DAVEW0071)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2004, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643/20 "2004-07-19T02:17:07Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > **Bush administration to send Russian troops to Iraq or Afghanistan** > > :eek: :eek: :eek: > > Someone jog my memory. Weren’t Russian troops in Afghanisatan once before? > > Didn’t the Russian troops in Afghanistan foment the networking of militants? > > Didn’t the U.S. government support Osama bin Laden and his buddies to get the Russians OUT of Afghanisatan? > My god, we are so fucked. Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t that an entirely different scenario, i.e. before the Soviet Union crumbled? Whether the OP’s information is true or not, or whether this tactic is a good idea or not, you can’t make any kind of comparison to what happened in the 1980s. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/here-it-is-the-october-surprise/255643.md?page=2)