By making sure everyone, Beijing included, remembers two things:
[ul][li]Kim is fucking nuts, and[/li][li]North Korea has the Bomb.[/ul]Put those two facts together. They are the basis for NK’s foreign policy.[/li]
Kim has made it abundantly clear that he gives not even half a shit if hundreds of thousands of his own people die by starvation. What makes you think he cares any more if millions die in a nuclear war?
Maybe the craziness is all or partly an act. Why do we want to test this theory, by doing something that is destabilizing?
You don’t deal with crazy people by giving them tempting opportunities to do crazy shit. There is a rough status quo on the Korean peninsula, and it is in South Korea’s, China’s, and the US’ interests to keep it that way. Kim’s policy is to try to grab for international power with a particularly unpleasant game of brinksmanship. The policy of the rest of the sane world is to try to contain him until his nasty regime implodes.
Saying to Kim “I double-dog dare you to cross this line” is not a particularly smart move, IMO.
I don’t know what, if anything, this signifies, but I’m watching the opening procession of the Olympics and the South Korean and North Korean teams are marching together in one group, distinguished by the color of their jackets – blue and red (I would assume the ones in red are NK) – and I saw some blue-jacketed athletes holding hands with red-jackets. And I’m sure they wouldn’t be doing this if their respective governments hadn’t approved. Tentative diplomatic feeler, perhaps? Symbolic beginning of the beginning of a rapprochement, just maybe?
I saw that too and was unsure what (if anything) it meant. I really hope it means a re-approachement, but I’ll believe it when I see it. I have a hard time believing that Kim et al is ready to throw in the towel (or even conceed enough to normalize relations with the South), and I seriously doubt the South will give up the political freedoms they have to re-merge with the North, nor give conceed enough to even normalize relations or increase trade with the North without major concessions from Kim and his merry men. Just my opinion though.
I mentioned the Olympic Procession thing in a CS thread – “Let’s discuss the Olympic opening ceremonies” – http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=271249 – and friedo says they did the same thing in Sydney in 2000. And since then we’ve had even more tension over NK’s nuclear program. So I guess it’s not that big a deal. sigh
I’d like to see peace on the Korean peninsula as much as you would BG, but I don’t think its likely to happen until the complete collapse of Kim and his regime. And thats not something thats likely to happen any time soon. If the deaths of millions due to starvation in North Korea didn’t shake his grip on power I’m unsure what could. Certainly not appeasing him by drawing back from the DMZ. Appearently not trying to bribe him either as has been tried in the past. I truely feel bad for the people trapped in North Korea and I wish there was something that could be done to alleviate their suffering, but I just don’t know what would work short of a military solution…something I shudder to even think about the cost of in terms of money and human life and suffering. In the long term I think such a solution would be good for the people of North Korea…but the short term price is simply too high IMO. Lets just hope that Kim et al doesn’t push the world to such a thing.