# Here's the real October surprise **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 26, 2004, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255 "2004-10-26T16:36:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mullinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@Mullinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mullinator)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/1 "2004-10-26T16:36:37Z")
There probably isn’t one. This partially feeds off of the anger/disgust/what have you in [this thread.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=282934) My irritation is a little more isolated purely on the idea that there is some great October surprise out there that someone evil (most likely Karl Rove according to this board) is just waiting to unleash so all heck can break loose and swing this election around. But the secret? It’s not likely to happen. It was probably cute and kitschy for someone to predict it back when people paid less attention to this kind of thing. But now, most well-read people, which certainly constitutes a majority of this board, are well aware of the concept. Thusly, I’d be inclined to say that no campaign worth it’s salt is going to just sit back with secret “Kerry does midgets videotapes” or “Bush mangles his wife’s name in bed audio”. As soon as something of marginal magnitude happens the press, blogs, and people have a clue or even think they have a clue will immediately begin crowing that the big October surprise is happening. Sometimes, a thing is just a thing. No ulterior motive, no massive amounts of planning, hiding, and preparation. Just because the Swift Boat Vets release an ad or the UN releases a report or Karl Rove blows his nose and sees the outline of a Heinz ketchup bottle means nothing. Really, how many October surprises have there been? Besides the supposed beast that started it all, what other instances of something occuring have mattered in such a way that an election was fundamentally changed? It’s just more stories blown wildly out of proportion by the media and people freakishly charged up over an election that is near the end. Much like shark attacks and flu shots, it’s not the story that matters. It’s the pundits, talking heads, reaction shots, and loud/angry prognosticating that is really driving everyone into a lather. At this point we have 108 posts from the last 6 months saying something like here is the surprise, the surprise is coming, what might the surprise be. Just let it go. A story comes out? Just wait a little bit and see if it really fits the criteria of an election or life altering announcement. See if it is actually true. See if it really matters in a substantive enough way to make people turn their heads for even a second. The more this keeps up, the more it’s turning into Peter and the wolf. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/2 "2004-10-26T16:45:24Z")
_A wolf_, you say?!?! That’s it, I’m voting for Bush. ---
**Author:** ![Mullinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@Mullinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mullinator)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/3 "2004-10-26T16:52:19Z")
Didn’t eve think about that symmetry. Wow, my post now has a whole circle of life feel to it. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/4 "2004-10-26T16:58:54Z")
How about those 380 tons of missing explosive we keep hearing so much about? [http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/26/iraq.explosives/](http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/26/iraq.explosives/) Bolding mine > [@](#): > > **Prior to the Iraq war** , the high-grade explosives at Al Qaqaa had **been under the control of IAEA inspectors because the material could be used as a component in a nuclear weapon** , IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. IAEA and other U.N. inspectors left the country in March 2003 before the fighting began on March 19. The reply? > [@](#): > > “John Kerry’s attacks today were baseless,” Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt said. “He said American troops did not secure the explosives, when the explosives were already missing.” 😕 This is totally fucking crazy. I’ll tell you my October surprise. How any sane person could hope to defend this. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/5 "2004-10-26T17:03:35Z")
Who’s the duck? ---
**Author:** ![WernhamHogg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a587f6/32.png) [@WernhamHogg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WernhamHogg)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/6 "2004-10-26T17:05:05Z")
> [@Mullinator](#): > > The more this keeps up, the more it’s turning into Peter and the wolf. Peter is a fearless boy who rescues a cat and two birds from a wolf. Your analogy is thus completely stupid and irrelevent. ---
**Author:** ![Duck\_Duck\_Goose](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/50afbb/32.png) [@Duck\_Duck\_Goose](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duck_Duck_Goose)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/7 "2004-10-26T17:07:22Z")
Mully! You’re psychic! > [@](#): > > As soon as something of marginal magnitude happens the press, blogs, and people have a clue or even think they have a clue will immediately begin crowing that the big October surprise is happening. [Iraq, Rehnquist Create ‘October Surprise’](http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4575243,00.html) > [@](#): > > Tuesday October 26, 2004 2:01 AM > > By TERENCE HUNT > > AP White House Correspondent > > WASHINGTON (AP) - An ``October surprise’’ is part of the political folklore of presidential campaigns, and just eight days before the election, the unexpected is indeed happening. > > Monday’s disclosure that 80-year-old Chief Justice William Rehnquist has thyroid cancer immediately propelled the Supreme Court and the hot-button abortion issue onto the front burner, while the revelation about the looting of 377 tons of high explosives in Iraq gave John Kerry an opening to accuse President Bush of ``incredible incompetence.’’ > > Another troubling issue for Bush was the execution-style slaying of about 50 newly trained Iraqi soldiers, underscoring the chaos that still rages 19 months after the president ordered a U.S.-led invasion. As awful as the massacre was, it would have been much worse for Bush in political terms if the victims had been Americans. ---
**Author:** ![WernhamHogg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a587f6/32.png) [@WernhamHogg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WernhamHogg)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/8 "2004-10-26T17:10:35Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > Who’s the duck? The (lame) duck is Bush, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Who\_me\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/958977/32.png) [@Who\_me\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Who_me_1)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/9 "2004-10-26T17:11:54Z")
> [@skutir](#): > > Peter is a fearless boy who rescues a cat and two birds from a wolf. Your analogy is thus completely stupid and irrelevent. How about if he used the boy who cried wolf… (which is what he may have meant to do) ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/10 "2004-10-26T17:13:29Z")
> [@Duck Duck Goose](#): > > Mully! You’re psychic! > > [Iraq, Rehnquist Create ‘October Surprise’](http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4575243,00.html) Holy shit, hello stranger! Nice to see you **DDG** ---
**Author:** ![WernhamHogg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a587f6/32.png) [@WernhamHogg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WernhamHogg)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/11 "2004-10-26T17:24:45Z")
> [@Who\_me?](#): > > How about if he used the boy who cried wolf… > > (which is what he may have meant to do) Then instead of being irrelevent, he would have merely been boring and predictable. ---
**Author:** ![Who\_me\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/958977/32.png) [@Who\_me\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Who_me_1)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/12 "2004-10-26T17:29:24Z")
> [@skutir](#): > > Then instead of being irrelevent, he would have merely been boring and predictable. Much like your posts… ---
**Author:** ![Psycho\_Pirate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@Psycho\_Pirate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Psycho_Pirate)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/13 "2004-10-26T17:43:25Z")
Nice picking and choosing in your summary, **World Eater**. From the same article: > [@](#): > > “We, from the very beginning of Operation Iraqi Freedom, did everything we could to secure arms caches throughout the country,” Ereli said. “But given the number of arms and the number of caches and the extent of militarization of Iraq, it was impossible to provide 100 percent security for 100 percent of the sites, quite frankly.” - Adam Ereli, State Department spokesman. … > [@](#): > > Ereli said coalition forces have cleared 10,033 weapons caches and destroyed 243,000 tons of munitions. Another 162,898 tons of munitions are at secure locations and awaiting destruction, he said. > > A senior administration official played down the importance of the missing explosives, describing them as dangerous material but “stuff you can buy anywhere.” > > The official noted that the administration did not see this necessarily as a “proliferation risk.” > > “In the grand scheme – and on a grand scale – there are hundreds of tons of weapons, munitions, artillery, explosives that are unaccounted for in Iraq,” the official said. > > “And like the Pentagon has said, there is really no way the U.S. military could safeguard all of these weapons depots or find all of these missing materials.” So, let’s see. The troops have found and have either destroyed or are in the process of destroying over **400,000** tons of munitions. Even if it is the fault of the administration (and it isn’t, but for sake of argument, we’ll say it is), that is 380 tons vs. 400,000 tons. That’s .000935 of the weapons so far. That’s less than a tenth of one percent of the weapons recovered so far. Big deal. ---
**Author:** ![WernhamHogg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a587f6/32.png) [@WernhamHogg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WernhamHogg)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/14 "2004-10-26T17:44:57Z")
> [@Who\_me?](#): > > Much like your posts… I can’t argue with that. I would post a lengthier tirade on how tired I am of people whining about the campaigns, but it’s easier to take a cheap shot and move on. Especially when I teach in 20 minutes. The campaigns are irrelevent. People should be pissed off about the PRESIDENT and his total incompetence, running up 2 trillion dollars in debt and killing thousands of people on a needless war. That’s not negative campaigning, it’s fact. If the truth is too ugly for your pretty little ears, then just turn off the TV and put on some Yanni music. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/15 "2004-10-26T17:48:07Z")
If people _didn’t_ constantly talk about October surprises, they could still work, and would be used. The constant reminders to watch for an October surprise are specifically to (try to) keep them from happening. Lesser of two evils. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/2bfe46/32.png) [@John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Carter_of_Mars)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/16 "2004-10-26T18:05:35Z")
No October surprise by the Evil Bush Company? Shucks. The Evil Bush Company was going to lower gasoline prices right before the election. Didn’t happen. Rats. But there’s still hope: The Evil Bush Company’s plot to cancel the election still could happen. If the election does take place, then we’ll be reduced to this: If Kerry doesn’t win, it will be because the Evil Bush Company rigged the voting machines. If Kerry does win, what will all of our resident conspiracy theorists do, jump off a building or somethin’? Damn if I won’t be glad when this here 'lection gets done with! ---
**Author:** ![Mullinator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@Mullinator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mullinator)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/17 "2004-10-26T18:09:05Z")
> [@Who\_me?](#): > > How about if he used the boy who cried wolf… > > (which is what he may have meant to do) Dagnabbit, that is what I meant to reference. And yet, Peter and the wolf sounded so correct. Maybe I’ll just put this post in the brain farts thread in MPSIMS. > [@skutir](#): > > Then instead of being irrelevent, he would have merely been boring and predictable. I apologize if using what is an apt analogy qualifies as boring and predictable. Perhaps I should have referenced the Simpsons episode where Bart avoids a test by saying his ovaries hurt, gets attacked by a wolf in the hallway, and then gone into a witty rejoinder preceded by [Groundskeeper Willie] > [@skutir](#): > > I can’t argue with that. I would post a lengthier tirade on how tired I am of people whining about the campaigns, but it’s easier to take a cheap shot and move on. Especially when I teach in 20 minutes. Just so I don’t fall out of the boring and predictable mold you have put me in, perhaps the old “Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach” would fit in this part. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/18 "2004-10-26T18:14:02Z")
[http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/26/iraq.main/index.html](http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/26/iraq.main/index.html) > [@](#): > > Earlier Tuesday, the U.S. military said a morning airstrike had killed a “known associate” of al-Zarqawi’s in Falluja. > > “Multiple sources reported that a known associate of the Zarqawi network was present at the time of the strike,” the U.S. military said in a statement. OMG THEY KILLED BIN LADEN!!!11 Oh wait… They might have killed a dude that knew some guy who supposedly has sworn allegiance to Bin Laden. Christ they’re grasping at straws these days. Of course the American public will now think OBL is dead. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/2bfe46/32.png) [@John\_Carter\_of\_Mars](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Carter_of_Mars)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/19 "2004-10-26T18:21:51Z")
**World Eater** : How is this snippet of news any different from anything else that has come out of the middle east over the past year or so? What about this is so different that you think it qualifies as an “October Surprise”? What about this mundane tale constitutes grasping at straws? To me it looks like just another ho-hum every day news release. ---
**Author:** ![vanilla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/f19dbf/32.png) [@vanilla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vanilla)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2004, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/20 "2004-10-26T18:26:28Z")
The surprise is that its actually going to happen in November! ahhhhh :dubious: [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255.md?page=2)