# Here's the real October surprise **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 26, 2004, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255 "2004-10-26T16:36:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![MrFantsyPants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ba0ec/32.png) [@MrFantsyPants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrFantsyPants)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/41 "2004-10-27T01:43:23Z")
> [@Psycho Pirate](#): > > This is less than a percent of the munitions that we _have_ found. I don’t see anybody refuting that, or showing how exactly this is the administration’s fault. um, except that this is enough explosives for 4000 Oklahoma bombing sized car bombs. Who gives a shit what percentage it is of the total. It IS a big fucking deal. > [@Psycho Pirate](#): > > I refuse to focus on the negative when so much is going right, at home and abroad. um, okay. stupid, when the negative outweighs the positive, but since you’re ignoring it, you wouldn’t know that, right? ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/42 "2004-10-27T01:57:44Z")
George decides that it’s now okay for gays to marry. Well I had the link but the Hampsters didn’t like it so…I’ll just say to hell with it. Anyway… The Pakistani press is running a new Osama captured story I see. Well fuckit…none of my links are working. :mad: I’ll see if I can figure out why and be back later. Maybe one of y’all have already read these. I think it’s gettin time for a new PC. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/43 "2004-10-27T01:59:34Z")
> [@John Carter of Mars](#): > > Do you suggest that GWB has some personal responsibility RE: Which method of recording votes the individual states select? No, but if the republicans, as a whole, want to look good, not suspect, they should do as much as possible to distance themselves from, not just insecure voting devices, but insecure voting devices produced by a major guy on your side! A politician’s major job is to talk, and you’d think if everyone was so gung-ho about fair elections, they’d make sure to both distance themselves politically from the makers of the equipment, and make sure the equipment is secure (since, at least currently, they have the least believability w/r/t fair elections.) More likely, they don’t really care what we think (George Bush even admits it!) But I was referring to the easily avoided situation w/r/t the republicans, not W in specific. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/44 "2004-10-27T02:01:53Z")
> [@MrFantsyPants](#): > > um, except that this is enough explosives for 4000 Oklahoma bombing sized car bombs. Who gives a shit what percentage it is of the total. It IS a big fucking deal. What…is that kinda like saying we only lost a couple of nuclear warheads? ---
**Author:** ![Rilchiam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/2bfe46/32.png) [@Rilchiam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rilchiam)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/45 "2004-10-29T09:06:45Z")
[QUOTE=Mullinator] Really, how many October surprises have there been? Besides the supposed beast that started it allQUOTE] What was that, then? ---
**Author:** ![Rilchiam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/2bfe46/32.png) [@Rilchiam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rilchiam)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/46 "2004-10-29T09:09:19Z")
:smack: What was “the supposed beast that started it all”? ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/47 "2004-10-29T16:39:56Z")
> [@Rilchiam](#): > > :smack: > > What was “the supposed beast that started it all”? If I’m not mistaken, it’s named after an alleged deal that the Ronald Reagan campaign made with the Iranian hostage-takers in 1980, to the effect that the hostages would not be released until RWR was inaugurated. The alleged purpose, obviously, was to deprive Jimmy Carter of the benefit than an earlier successful negotiation to the hostage crisis would have given his reelection bid. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/48 "2004-10-29T17:17:33Z")
Yep, that’s “the beast” allright. The one where GHWB supposedly met representatives of the Ayatollah in Paris and in exchange for the release of the hostages in Tehran the US would under Reagan/Bush see to it that Iran had sophisticated weapons to fight Iraq. What did they call that damned mess again…it was in the papers…congress had a big deal…some guy named North took the blame. Anyway, that’s how it got started, with a damned October surprise. Which I guess you could say is part of the reason we’re still in shit over there. The hostages were released as Reagan was being inaugurated. Surprise… Sorry, I can’t help myself sometimes. Besides the Paris meeting which I can’t confirm because the only “witness” that was willing to talk is dead. The rest of it is pretty much fact. Okay, I’ll stop now. sorry. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Rilchiam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/2bfe46/32.png) [@Rilchiam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rilchiam)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/49 "2004-10-29T20:01:47Z")
I see. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/50 "2004-10-29T20:43:31Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > It only took _one pound_ of the same stuff to bring down [Pan Am 103](http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/5260/headpage.html) over Lockerbie, Scotland. > > I’m sure it was a big deal to them. > > We are so fucked. Hmmm, let’s see, a _thin-skinned aluminum structure loaded with with **jet fuel** _ can be brought down out of the **sky** with a pound of this stuff, placed in the cargo area, where it’s _near the tanks loaded with jet fuel_. Holy shit, Batman! This stuff’s worse than nuclear weapons! :eek: Yeah, a pound of the stuff can bring down a plane, so it’s a worry, it is _not_ however, the end of the world. I didn’t see anyone panicking over the fact that the shoe bomber had a couple of **ounces** of explosives in his shoes. As I’m sure any pilot will tell you ( **Broomstick** , where are you?) it’s **not** all that hard to bring an aircraft down. A misplaced bolt in just the right spot can do it. Also, if you look at the photos of the Pan Am crash, you’ll notice that _large sections of the plane hit the ground intact_. This means that the plane wasn’t blown to smithereens, but had enough damage done to it that the pilot couldn’t prevent the plane from crashing. Small consolation for those who died on that day, admittedly, but it _does_ mean that a pound of the stuff set off in a plane _on the ground_ would cause significantly less damage than is implied by the statement that a pound of it brought down a jet. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/51 "2004-10-29T20:49:23Z")
Hell, **Tuck** I’ve been under the impression that a flock of birds can take one down. I’d just train me some ducks…and then run. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/52 "2004-10-29T21:08:58Z")
Well, the October surprise has been revealed and it’s Usama bin Laden. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/53 "2004-10-29T21:53:23Z")
[http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018](http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/article.adp?id=20041029154209990018) Osama bin Laden, reading a statement to the American people in a new videotape aired Friday, directly admitted for the first time that he ordered the Sept. 11 attacks ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/54 "2004-10-29T21:59:36Z")
Sadly, a few of the things he said made some sense. ---
**Author:** ![World\_Eater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f04885/32.png) [@World\_Eater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/World_Eater)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/55 "2004-10-29T22:11:49Z")
Anyone believe that 9/11 was for Israel invading Lebanon? ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/56 "2004-10-29T22:18:35Z")
> [@World Eater](#): > > Anyone believe that 9/11 was for Israel invading Lebanon? Sadly, I’m sure that there _are_ nutjobs out there who will swallow that lie. Non-AOL [link](http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/29/binladen.tape/index.html). ---
**Author:** ![bughunter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/aeb1de/32.png) [@bughunter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bughunter)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/57 "2004-10-29T23:22:09Z")
Funny how that in every recent close, hotly contested election since the late 60’s, there’s been a vocal suspicion that someone would pull some shit at the last minute to rig/swing the election… … and it’s never happened. At least, not according to [this morning’s story on NPR’s Day to Day.](http://www.npr.org/rundowns/segment.php?wfId=4132847) You all should listen to that clip… it’s only a couple of minutes long. When I first started reading about the OBL video today, I was thinking “was this supposed to be the October Suprise? Did BushRoveCo. stage this? If so, it’s pretty damn lame.” Actually, I think the real stunts will happen [after the election](http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1022-34.htm). John Dean is a pretty smart fella, and has singularly had the most clear, rational, grounded perspective on the Bush administration and their shenanigans. ---
**Author:** ![t-keela](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a3d4f5/32.png) [@t-keela](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/t-keela)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255/58 "2004-10-30T00:54:51Z")
A lot of folks would argue that Reagan/Bush did exactly that in 1980 w/Carter or at least beat him to the punch. I remember the hostages WERE released on his inauguration just like predicted. They (Iran) did get weapons from the US illegally. Say what you want. Sorry I’ve already been down this path today. Oh hell, I’ll leave it anyway, just in case you missed it the first time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/heres-the-real-october-surprise/271255.md?page=2)