# Hillary just lost the election. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 11, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663 "2016-09-11T16:04:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e99b99/32.png) [@Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Einstein_was_a_Hippie)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/681 "2016-09-15T04:42:42Z")
538 isn’t God, has been wrong numerous times re:Trump, and is no longer credible. Mark my words, come election day 538 will have egg on its face. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/682 "2016-09-15T06:09:25Z")
I feel certain Hillary’s percentage will start climbing rapidly again right after the first debate. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/683 "2016-09-15T07:13:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > … > > Funny. Clinton is accused of being a workaholic who pushed herself when she had a pneumonia and now is being told that she needs to “get busy” … Oy. Run rabbit run. > … Pushed herself? Shit, she couldn’t even stand up by herself let alone push anything. You know, I never really believed Clinton would win this as much as I believed Trump would lose it. Clinton lacks charisma. Her success isn’t because people like her as much as it’s because they can’t stand Trump. Trump was giving it to her being the jerk he was. However, Trump’s handlers have restrained his stupidity and he’s acting less and less like a jerk. This ain’t a done deal by any means. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 10:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/684 "2016-09-15T10:18:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I have not been agreeing with you often but I agree with you here. > > Of course there is that desire _every_ election. Obama was all “Be the change” and “The Change We Need” … go back to 1872 and “Turn the Rascals Out” against Grant, or more recently Humphrey’s “Some People Talk Change, Others Cause It” in 1968 or even Carter’s 1976 “A Leader, For a Change” or Bill Clinton’s "It’s Time to Change America and “For People, for a Change” in an election that was not only against GH Bush but against a bigger change, Perot … > > Selling change and disruption is a common sales pitch and always find some not insignificant audience. It works best when incumbents are very unpopular of course. When the incumbent is not intensely disliked it has tended to work less well. Still resonates with many though even then. > > Of course there is also a desire some voters have for stability, as Lincoln’s slogan was “Don’t trade horses in midstream.” > > No question Trump is disruption and Clinton is, relatively stability. And that some prefer to choose disruption, any disruption. > > Perilously close? Maybe. Sad but true that there are so many deplorable people in this country. But I do give this country’s voters a _small_ bit more credit than you do. Here’s another thing that may be missed in the polls: Trump’s voters are more committed to voting for him than Clinton’s, and the polls have repeatedly made that clear. Thus, if Clinton has even a 2 percentage point lead in the polls, there is a good chance that this could flip on election day, with more Trump supporters arriving and taking the time to vote than Clinton’s. Truthfully, the ones who are most committed to supporting Clinton are terrified Muslims, Hispanics (Mexicans mostly), some African Americans, and white liberals who believe that Trump is a fascist. Unfortunately, that number is probably only equal to and slightly less than the number of largely though not entirely white voters who believe that Trump is a smart take-no-prisoners corporate shark whose gonna change Washington, protect Christianity, and avenge past losses to the Clintons. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/685 "2016-09-15T10:35:47Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/686 "2016-09-15T10:55:42Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I would rather have Hillary lose and let the country get its nose rubbed in its own shit than have a weak populist president pull off an upset victory, get nothing accomplished, and have democrats blamed for a recession and events overseas. I don’t know if Hillary will get the job, but I know she can do the job. I also think she is at her finest when she is surrounded by her enemies and fighting trench warfare with congress. Unfortunately, campaigning and begging morons to vote you into office isn’t really her forte. This is whistling in the dark. You’ve completely underplayed the danger of a Trump presidency. What he can do is far, far worse than not getting anything done or making the Democrats look bad. It is not whistling in the dark to following a well-tested algorithm for the race, instead of acting like any one poll is predictive and comparing it to a completely different poll,. Being worried accomplishes nothing. You are presumably already doing everything you can so that Clinton can win. Worrying about what you can’t change accomplishes nothing. Whistling in the dark is actually a good thing. Don’t get me wrong–I worry, too. I’m worried I’ll be in full out panic attacks the closer we get to election day. But I know it accomplishes nothing. That’s why I take frequent breaks and ignore what’s going on. A dip in support was predictable here. I’m praying it won’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/687 "2016-09-15T11:53:28Z")
> [@Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](#): > > 538 isn’t God, has been wrong numerous times re:Trump, and is no longer credible. > > Mark my words, come election day 538 will have egg on its face. What do you mean by that? What would you consider egg on its face? The numbers they put up are what would happen if the election happened _today._ It is not a prediction of the future. I suspect their numbers the day of the election will be as accurate as the last two elections. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/688 "2016-09-15T11:58:03Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > A dip in support was predictable here. I’m praying it won’t matter. There is a lot of time before the election. It’s almost certain that another big story will come along and have people talking. However any hint of ill health will be pounced on by the press so this needs to be the only incident or it will continue to overshadow other issues. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/689 "2016-09-15T12:02:00Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > What do you mean by that? What would you consider egg on its face? The numbers they put up are what would happen if the election happened _today._ It is not a prediction of the future. I suspect their numbers the day of the election will be as accurate as the last two elections. ETA: I may be reading it wrong so correct me if I am. It looks to me that the only state they got wrong in the primary was Michigan. Along with the record from the last two elections of getting 99 out of 100 states correct makes me think it is still the best site to watch. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/690 "2016-09-15T13:11:13Z")
> [@Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](#): > > 538 isn’t God, has been wrong numerous times re:Trump, and is no longer credible. > > Mark my words, come election day 538 will have egg on its face. Define that and let’s set a wager, shall we? I’m always up for an extra hundred bucks. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/691 "2016-09-15T13:18:03Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Here’s another thing that may be missed in the polls: Trump’s voters are more committed to voting for him than Clinton’s, and the polls have repeatedly made that clear. Thus, if Clinton has even a 2 percentage point lead in the polls, there is a good chance that this could flip on election day, with more Trump supporters arriving and taking the time to vote than Clinton’s. … The way this manifests the most in the polls is the fairly consistent difference between the two-way and the three-way numbers with Clinton’s lead typically being stronger when the choice is two-way. When given a choice of all four Trump’s supporters are less likely to say another name. And they are saying they plan on voting. Of course that means two things - 1) That bit is already captured in the polls. The four-way captures that effect. 2) They say they plan on voting when asked but statistically they have not in the past and there is not much infrastructure to help them get there. Clinton’s support may include some who are less fired up but they mostly consistently come out and vote in Presidential cycles whether they are fired up or not. But I am on record as agreeing with the basic premise here that who actually turns out will be the big wildcard on election day and is where the uncertainty lies more than anything else. My punditic thought is that the data analytics informed GOTV machine will deliver a couple of points in key states and non-college educated Whites will not suddenly have turnout at college-educated women levels “because Trump” … but past never necessarily predicts future performance so we will see. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/692 "2016-09-15T13:34:55Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > There is a lot of time before the election. It’s almost certain that \*\*another big story will come along \*\*and have people talking. However any hint of ill health will be pounced on by the press so this needs to be the only incident or it will continue to overshadow other issues. My bold. Another big story…or twelve… :smack: ---
**Author:** ![OwnRules](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@OwnRules](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OwnRules)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/693 "2016-09-15T13:35:38Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > I feel certain Hillary’s percentage will start climbing rapidly again right after the first debate. Depends on the moderation – Trumps has thus far skated on bluster. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/694 "2016-09-15T13:45:03Z")
“Due to the severely delicate nature of Ms Clinton’s health, I cannot in good conscience consent to appear with her unless she is in a wheelchair on stage with an IV drip to keep her hydrated, under the direct supervision of an EMT. Further, I must insist that Dr. Oz be the moderator, so that a physician is immediately at hand when she crumbles beneath the awesome power of my awesomeness. Outside of these, I have no further requirements, except that any mention of ‘tax returns’ or ‘genital leprosy’ be forbidden.” ---
**Author:** ![Pearl\_Clutching\_Provocateur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Pearl\_Clutching\_Provocateur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pearl_Clutching_Provocateur)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/695 "2016-09-15T13:53:49Z")
If Hillary’s cough is merely allergies, then why doesn’t Rachael Maddow and the army of Hillary supporting media show clips of Hillary coughing when she was younger and healthier? Did she just develop these allergies in her sixties? She’s been in public life and public speaking for 30 years. There should be other clips of her coughing for 4 minutes straight. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/696 "2016-09-15T13:54:27Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > There is a lot of time before the election. It’s almost certain that another big story will come along and have people talking. However any hint of ill health will be pounced on by the press so this needs to be the only incident or it will continue to overshadow other issues. I agree with this. I don’t believe Hillary has just lost the election but her margin for error has become a whole lot smaller since Sunday. ---
**Author:** ![yanceylebeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yanceylebeef/32/12290_2.png) [@yanceylebeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yanceylebeef)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/697 "2016-09-15T13:57:28Z")
> [@Pearl\_Clutching\_Provocateur](#): > > If Hillary’s cough is merely allergies, then why doesn’t Rachael Maddow and the army of Hillary supporting media show clips of Hillary coughing when she was younger and healthier? Did she just develop these allergies in her sixties? She’s been in public life and public speaking for 30 years. There should be other clips of her coughing for 4 minutes straight. [First page](https://www.google.com/search?q=allergies+and+age&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8) of adult onset allergy google search. You’re welcome. ---
**Author:** ![Pearl\_Clutching\_Provocateur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Pearl\_Clutching\_Provocateur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pearl_Clutching_Provocateur)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/698 "2016-09-15T14:02:50Z")
> [@yanceylebeef](#): > > [First page](https://www.google.com/search?q=allergies+and+age&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8) of adult onset allergy google search. You’re welcome. Clinton is almost 69. The article you cite discusses people over 40. I still find it questionable she developed allergies in her sixties. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/699 "2016-09-15T14:03:26Z")
I’m only allergic to work and vegans. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/700 "2016-09-15T14:04:03Z")
> [@pearl clutching provocateur](#): > > clinton is almost 69. The article you cite discusses people over 40. I still find it questionable she developed allergies in her sixties. 60 \> 40 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663.md?page=36)